Week 3 Discussion

[nbafan88]

Week 2 was a great card compared to this...


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[TD="colspan: 2"]NFL - Sep 24 [/TD]
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[TD="class: leftColumn"] <small>5:25 PM</small> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 301 WASHINGTON [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] Spread <label> +4-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] Total <label> 44.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] Odds [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 10k-3k-3k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 302 NY GIANTS [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> -4-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 44.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 2"] NFL - Sep 27 [/TD]
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[TD="class: leftColumn"] <small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 461 PITTSBURGH [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] Spread <label> PK-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] Total <label> 47.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] Odds [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 10k-3k-3k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 462 ST. LOUIS [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> PK-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 47.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
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[TR="class: evenRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"] <small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 463 SAN DIEGO [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> +2-105 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 45.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 10k-3k-3k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 464 MINNESOTA [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> -2-115 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 45.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
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[TD="class: leftColumn"] <small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 465 TAMPA BAY [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> +6.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 40.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 10k-3k-3k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 466 HOUSTON [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> -6.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 40.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 467 PHILADELPHIA [/TD]
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[TD="class: tabCell"] 5k-2k-2k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 468 NY JETS [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 469 NEW ORLEANS [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> +3+105 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 45-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 10k-3k-3k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 470 CAROLINA [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> -3-125 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 45-110 </label> [/TD]
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[TD="class: leftColumn"] <small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 471 JACKSONVILLE [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> +13.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 47-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 10k-3k-3k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 472 NEW ENGLAND [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> -13.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 47-110 </label> [/TD]
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[TD="class: leftColumn"] <small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 473 CINCINNATI [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> +3-125 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 44-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 10k-3k-3k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 474 BALTIMORE [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> -3+105 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 44-110 </label> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 475 OAKLAND [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> +4-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 42-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 10k-3k-3k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 476 CLEVELAND [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> -4-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 42-110 </label> [/TD]
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[TR="class: oddRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"] <small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 477 INDIANAPOLIS [/TD]
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[TD="class: tabCell"] 5k-2k-2k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 478 TENNESSEE [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 479 ATLANTA [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> -1.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 44-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 5k-2k-2k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 480 DALLAS [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> +1.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 44-110 </label> [/TD]
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[TD="class: leftColumn"] <small>1:05 PM</small> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 481 SAN FRANCISCO [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> +6-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 43.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 10k-3k-3k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 482 ARIZONA [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> -6-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 43.5 -110 </label> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 483 CHICAGO [/TD]
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[TD="class: tabCell"] 5k-2k-2k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 484 SEATTLE [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 485 BUFFALO [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> +3-115 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 44-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 10k-3k-3k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 486 MIAMI [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> -3-105 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 44-110 </label> [/TD]
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[TD="class: leftColumn"] <small>5:30 PM</small> [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 487 DENVER [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 488 DETROIT [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 2"] NFL - Sep 28 [/TD]
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 489 KANSAS CITY [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] Spread <label> +6.5 -105 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] Total <label> 48-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] Odds [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] 5k-2k-2k USD
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[TD="class: teamCell"] 490 GREEN BAY [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> -6.5 -115 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] <label> 48-110 </label> [/TD]
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[nbafan88]

First look thoughts...

How does Cleveland not score 24 points vs Oakland? Total opened at 42.5 (which seems shady bc of the week 2 results) but the Under is getting hit hard early for reasons I cannot explain... Oakland's defense is not good and now they are traveling east for an early start after a huge win vs Baltimore...

Must win game for the Giants..... ha whatever that means..... no thanks

Seattle is going to be very very upset.... oddsmakers can't make that line high enough.

Manning in Prime Time again....

 

[Zeke]

Dallas dogged at home, when was the last time that happened? Total seems low there.

Pitt should handle STL dome or not.

 

[nbafan88]

Dallas dogged at home, when was the last time that happened? Total seems low there.

Pitt should handle STL dome or not.

They were dogs at home twice last year. First game of the year vs SF which they got crushed and vs NO on SNF which they won big.... Weeden is serviceable imo.... and their defense is awesome

 

[cogenman]

There are a lot of 0-2 teams playing at home this week: Baltimore, Seattle, Houston, NY Giants, and Detroit. It's hard enough making the playoffs with an 0-2 record, so I would think you get a max effort from most of these teams playing at home. Seattle will be one of the teams I'm on but it may be awhile for a line because they need to wait for Cutler's status. I'll play them up to two touchdowns.

 

[nbafan88]

There are a lot of 0-2 teams playing at home this week: Baltimore, Seattle, Houston, NY Giants, and Detroit. It's hard enough making the playoffs with an 0-2 record, so I would think you get a max effort from most of these teams playing at home. Seattle will be one of the teams I'm on but it may be awhile for a line because they need to wait for Cutler's status. I'll play them up to two touchdowns.

The Giants are very fortunate the rest of the division sucks. Philly has the division for the taking if they can figure out how to move the ball

 

[nbafan88]

Romo knew what the injury was as soon as it happened.

According to reports, the team flight back home was very upbeat and everyone is still confident. But they just won @ Philly so its only gonna be upbeat as long as their offense keeps producing. Its time for Jason Garrertt to prove all his haters wrong.


First time in Weeden's career (college or Pro) he has had the same offensive coordinator two seasons in a row.

 

[twinkie13]

Panthers are -3?

this some trap or something?

 

[chopz33]

just saw a report on the twitter that Brees has torn rotator cuff

 

[twinkie13]

I cant log in to my acct


is game off the board?

 

[Tito]

not sure if I'd call the Cowboy defense awesome...they jut faced a team in disarray w a really poor o-line. And the Giants, who are meh.

But def surprising people, and I think they will do ok against the Falcons...but once they get Hardy in there and he gets his feet under him, and Gregory back, and Lee can stay healthy - then maybe.


And as its been pointed out, they have almost zero Hfa...Weeden may not be tested by the Falcon D, but they will def try to be more conservative w him in there and w that o-line why wouldn't you.

 

[D-Woww]

definitely could be a "ewing theory" game for Dallas. ATL is 2-0 but I have watched both games and Ryan has gotten away with at least 5 throws that should have been picked that were not. Could easily be 0-2. Dallas can def pull this off. Tevin Coleman also out for atlanta

 

[nbafan88]

definitely could be a "ewing theory" game for Dallas. ATL is 2-0 but I have watched both games and Ryan has gotten away with at least 5 throws that should have been picked that were not. Could easily be 0-2. Dallas can def pull this off. Tevin Coleman also out for atlanta

I think we might have to forgetting about how the Falcons used to be years past, especially on the road.

 

[wiseplayer]

As quickly as people jumped on the Rams yesterday on the road, they'll jump even quicker off the bandwagon when they play at home vs Pittsburgh this week.

 

[XhuegoX]

give me San Diego ML

 

[GWarner27]

gonna be a lot of favorites in the teens this year i think. Tons of bad teams and a few elites

 

[GWarner27]

There are a lot of 0-2 teams playing at home this week: Baltimore, Seattle, Houston, NY Giants, and Detroit. It's hard enough making the playoffs with an 0-2 record, so I would think you get a max effort from most of these teams playing at home. Seattle will be one of the teams I'm on but it may be awhile for a line because they need to wait for Cutler's status. I'll play them up to two touchdowns.

i'd guess it settles closer to 17 than 14

The Giants are very fortunate the rest of the division sucks. Philly has the division for the taking if they can figure out how to move the ball

i hope people continue to think PHI is good, they've gotten some awful lines the last two weeks and at -2 this week it's another

Romo knew what the injury was as soon as it happened.

According to reports, the team flight back home was very upbeat and everyone is still confident. But they just won @ Philly so its only gonna be upbeat as long as their offense keeps producing. Its time for Jason Garrertt to prove all his haters wrong.


First time in Weeden's career (college or Pro) he has had the same offensive coordinator two seasons in a row.

not sure if I'd call the Cowboy defense awesome...they jut faced a team in disarray w a really poor o-line. And the Giants, who are meh.

But def surprising people, and I think they will do ok against the Falcons...but once they get Hardy in there and he gets his feet under him, and Gregory back, and Lee can stay healthy - then maybe.


And as its been pointed out, they have almost zero Hfa...Weeden may not be tested by the Falcon D, but they will def try to be more conservative w him in there and w that o-line why wouldn't you.

not sure how serviceable Weeden is, even with the 7/7 in relief yesterday. The massive OL and run-first mentality makes them probably best able to sustain the Romo loss, but at some point you lose too much artillery. Wouldn't be shocked if they win this weekend, but I like the possibility they get a bad seed in the playoffs if they get there healthy and go on a run

 

[C-MAN]

New England as a double-digit favorite presents a good betting opportunity this week. NE is just 2-8 ATS L10 games as a double digit favorite (includes home and away). This is a perfect opportunity for a win/no cover after two big games against Pit and Buffalo and with @Dallas, @Colts and then 2 divisional games on deck. Expect to see good, conservative Pats, but not great Pats this week.

 

[bones]

initial leans for me are

Jets -2.5 which I see this a.m....their D vs the Eagles? I would have put line of Jets @ -6 ( -3 for HFA alone)

JAGs +14 if I can get it. My line is currently +13.5. Pats off two big wins and agree with C-Man

Bengals TT , if it's 21 it seems highly probable that Bengals can get more than this against a poor Ravens D

OVER 44 in Falcons v Boys. Boys often get off to slow starts @ home in best of circumstances so looking @ Falcons in 1H too

Bucs +7. No, this is not an overreaction to their win against N.O. Just do not see Texans giving a td to any team...Texans have no game at almost any position imo (except this obvious)

 

[P-Unit]

There are a lot of 0-2 teams playing at home this week: Baltimore, Seattle, Houston, NY Giants, and Detroit. It's hard enough making the playoffs with an 0-2 record, so I would think you get a max effort from most of these teams playing at home. Seattle will be one of the teams I'm on but it may be awhile for a line because they need to wait for Cutler's status. I'll play them up to two touchdowns.

you would think teams would give max effort to not be 0-2 considering how tough it is to make the playoffs with that kind of start. SEA was sluggish early (no surprise) but DET really shit the bed after a solid first half in game 1. I don't really buy this angle anymore. Three of those teams had both games OTR which I think it more of the issue.

 

[P-Unit]

initial leans for me are

Jets -2.5 which I see this a.m....their D vs the Eagles? I would have put line of Jets @ -6 ( -3 for HFA alone)

JAGs +14 if I can get it. My line is currently +13.5. Pats off two big wins and agree with C-Man

Bengals TT , if it's 21 it seems highly probable that Bengals can get more than this against a poor Ravens D

OVER 44 in Falcons v Boys. Boys often get off to slow starts @ home in best of circumstances so looking @ Falcons in 1H too

Bucs +7. No, this is not an overreaction to their win against N.O. Just do not see Texans giving a td to any team...Texans have no game at almost any position imo (except this obvious)

If Foster plays then -7 is about right. I think HOU's DL will give Tampa fits this week.

 

[2daBank]

not a huge fan of playing the road team on short week but really hard not to like skins+4 on thu. if their anything to take away from the 1st 2 weeks that i think absolutely holds up is the skins run game is legit after gashing 2 of the better front 7s in football, no reason they dont run wild on soft ass gmen. also believe the d is pretty solid especially in the front 7 which more than nyg can say.

 

[Tito]

Injuries...


[h=4]Texans Offensive Tackle Jeff Adams -- Knee (IR)[/h]Jeff Adams has been diagnosed with a torn patellar tendon in his right knee -- a similar injury to that suffered by Giants receiver Victor Cruz -- which will require surgery and end the tackle's season.


[h=4]Bears Quarterback Jay Cutler -- Hamstring[/h]The Chicago Tribune reports that Jay Cutler suffered a strained hamstring against Arizona, and his status is uncertain for Week 3. John Fox is quoted describing the injury as "not really severe", suggesting that Cutler is more likely than not to be available against Seattle.
Update to the update: Adam Schefter reports that Cutler will miss at least two weeks.


[h=4]Packers Defensive Tackle Josh Boyd -- Ankle (IR)[/h]Initially believed to have only suffered a minor ankle fracture, a MRI scan on the injury revealed that Boyd also suffered torn ankle ligaments and may miss the rest of the season. Eddie Lacy and Devante Adams also suffered ankle injuries -- Lacy a low ankle sprain, Adams unconfirmed -- but neither is currently expected to miss more than a week or so at worst.
[h=4]Titans Offensive Guard Chance Warmack -- Knee[/h]Chance Warmack left Tennessee's defeat in Cleveland with a knee injury, which has since been identified as a Grade II ligament sprain according to ESPN's Paul Kuharsky. Those typically keep a NFL player out for around four weeks, but a lineman might be able to return earlier with a knee brace.
[h=4]Bills Defensive Back Aaron Williams -- Neck[/h]Despite the initial worrying sight of him being removed from the field in an ambulance while immobilised on a spinal injury board, Aaron Williams of the Bills is reportedly unharmed, and was discharged from hospital by the time the late afternoon games had finished.

[h=4]Awaiting News[/h]Rather than list all of the following players under their own headers, here are some other notable injuries about which we have no news:

• 49ers: Vance McDonald left with a knee injury.
• Cardinals: LaMarr Woodley and Justin Bethel are both reportedly fine.
• Dolphins: Lamar Miller left this game with an ankle injury, while Branden Albert left with a hamstring injury.
• Eagles: Kiko Alonso and Mychal Kendricks both left Sunday's game, with knee and hamstring injuries, respectively.
• Falcons: Tevin Coleman was carted off against the Giants with a rib injury.
• Giants: Ereck Flowers left with a left ankle sprain, with the duration of his absence dependent on the severity.
• Lions: Matt Stafford had his ribs X-rayed, but any potential injury is not believed to be serious.

 

[Tito]

left off Romo and Brees, since we all know about them

 

[twinkie13]

I wanna come back in life as Matt Flynn
steady cashin them checks

had a ponytail on the sideline of the LSU game on Saturday, dinner with Jerry Jones tonight


the dude life

 

[nbafan88]

Have to take the seahawks 1h team total over and full game tt over.... i think that's how i'll play that

 

[twinkie13]

not a huge fan of playing the road team on short week but really hard not to like skins+4 on thu. if their anything to take away from the 1st 2 weeks that i think absolutely holds up is the skins run game is legit after gashing 2 of the better front 7s in football, no reason they dont run wild on soft ass gmen. also believe the d is pretty solid especially in the front 7 which more than nyg can say.

hmmm

I feel like the Giants could be 2-0 easily

I may not play it, but I would lean NY

 

[ksimpsc]

I am tired of losing money with Coughlin lol

 

[nbafan88]

I am tired of losing money with Coughlin lol

Yup. And I don't like going against the skins when they are underdogs

 

[Zeke]

New England as a double-digit favorite presents a good betting opportunity this week. NE is just 2-8 ATS L10 games as a double digit favorite (includes home and away). This is a perfect opportunity for a win/no cover after two big games against Pit and Buffalo and with @Dallas, @Colts and then 2 divisional games on deck. Expect to see good, conservative Pats, but not great Pats this week.

I don't necessarily disagree with that, I usually stay far away from taking them as a DD fave. I don't know that you're going to get a conservative game plan though. Dallas nor Indy are not exactly look-ahead games for them. Based on last years results, on average versus Division Pats won 25.1 - 21. Versus non-division they won 31.7 - 18.9.

Once they got their heads out of their asses with that slow start, with the exception of losing to GB, they kicked the shit out of non-divisional opponents. They didn't exactly shut most of them down, just outscored them. With a lesser D this year & essentially the same offense I see much of the same for this weekend. Won't lay two TD's but intend to be involved with the over.

 

[2daBank]

hmmm

I feel like the Giants could be 2-0 easily

I may not play it, but I would lean NY

i dont disagree they were in and could have won either or both of the 1st 2. however i felt they were outplayed by a wide margin in big d and outplayed by atl early and late when it counted. i just dont see a lot of positive signs when watching gmen, i think they lazy defensively and on the oline where they have invested a lot. outside of Odell the wrs have hands of stone, the stable of backs solid but outside jennings very limited in what they good at so think makes offense more predictable depending on which back is in..

on the other side i have no doubt the skins run game is 100% legit and bottom line is they should punish gmen on the ground as despite only allowing 3ypc the 1st 2 gms i see a defense that can be had in this area. ultimately i think skins simply better in the trenches on both sides of the ball after watching them dominate 2 defensive front 7s that i rank far better than nyg's group. i dont think gmen have the weapons on the outside to exploit what i dont think a deep secondary, there no reason skins cant gameplan Odell out of killing them too much and i just dont see the rest capable of making them pay for doing so on a consistent basis. i think skins can and will generate pressure on eli and w/o a doubt win the rushing and t.o.p. battle.

i love dogs with the better d and run gm and that exactly what i see here. i respect the fact nyg always been dangerous when they get themselves into these spots and i hate thu night so it only 1x play for me but i cant overlook what i see and pass when imo the better team is getting a decent number of points in a game i think they can dictate the tempo and at the least make it very competitive.

 

[D-Woww]

looks like a lot of ppl are against me on NYG. Thats probably a good thing for you, but I am not ready to suddenly consider Washington competent. They had a good game in a good spot. Theri secondary is shit and ODB should torch them. Bad spot too. Yeah they can run a bit, but they still have Kirk Cousins on the road on a Thursday....should throw plenty of picks. Giants arent going to overlook Washington like others did so far, which is why they looked ok so far. Theyre gonna stack teh box and make Cousins beat them, which he cant.

 

[nbafan88]

first quarter under looks good to me on thursday

 

[inZane]

Good stuff here. I haven't seen anything about Indi. Are they really this bad, bad enough that taking the Titans who are playing their home opener +3 shouldn't be a solid play?

 

[bones]

I don't think I've seen it mentioned regarding the Jags v Pats game that Pats have a "BYE" the following week

I know that someone around here has stats on covering the week before & after a "BYE"

IMO, but would like to see the stats, the "bye" for Pats might make it more probable for a more relaxed, less focused game plan....but my opinion is like "noses", everybody has one

 

[twinkie13]

Good stuff here. I haven't seen anything about Indi. Are they really this bad, bad enough that taking the Titans who are playing their home opener +3 shouldn't be a solid play?

could the Titans be just what the Dr. ordered tho?

i am not sure, but Titans D aint the Jets D, right?

 

[2daBank]

I don't think Indy is close to good and it wouldn't shock me if they lost. That said I have no interest in playing Titans either.

Over 45 has some appeal to me, I'd imagine colts offense def gets going after seeing couple really good defenses and tough matchups for them. I just don't trust the d and think we will see a several games this year where mariota goes off like week 1, the more familiar a good offensive mind like ten hc gets w a player like him I think there be lots of weeks they have some stuff teams havnt seen yet and struggle to defend it. Colts soft d seems like a prime candidate for such a occurrence, very possible a week his legs are a factor. I expect this to be played into the mid 20s at least.

 

[inZane]

Tons of trends pointing towards under here, Bank. And I've always been a proponent of betting that something ain't gonna happen, instead of hoping it does. We'll see how the line plays out this week, bol..

 

[2daBank]

Tons of trends pointing towards under here, Bank. And I've always been a proponent of betting that something ain't gonna happen, instead of hoping it does. We'll see how the line plays out this week, bol..

I'm not a trend guy but good to know as maybe I can wait and get it a little lower. Personally I'm a proponent of betting based off what I project and hoping I'm right, lol. Are the trends easy to find if I look? At work I'll look later, thanx.

 

[GWarner27]

If Foster plays then -7 is about right. I think HOU's DL will give Tampa fits this week.

don't think he's playing, even if he does he's probably on a limited snap count

New England as a double-digit favorite presents a good betting opportunity this week. NE is just 2-8 ATS L10 games as a double digit favorite (includes home and away). This is a perfect opportunity for a win/no cover after two big games against Pit and Buffalo and with @Dallas, @Colts and then 2 divisional games on deck. Expect to see good, conservative Pats, but not great Pats this week.

I don't necessarily disagree with that, I usually stay far away from taking them as a DD fave. I don't know that you're going to get a conservative game plan though. Dallas nor Indy are not exactly look-ahead games for them. Based on last years results, on average versus Division Pats won 25.1 - 21. Versus non-division they won 31.7 - 18.9.

Once they got their heads out of their asses with that slow start, with the exception of losing to GB, they kicked the shit out of non-divisional opponents. They didn't exactly shut most of them down, just outscored them. With a lesser D this year & essentially the same offense I see much of the same for this weekend. Won't lay two TD's but intend to be involved with the over.

also gotta consider how last week was kind of a deceiving final. After BUF took the 7-0 lead, NE was killing them

first quarter under looks good to me on thursday

should be an absolute shitfest

Good stuff here. I haven't seen anything about Indi. Are they really this bad, bad enough that taking the Titans who are playing their home opener +3 shouldn't be a solid play?

part of me is really worried about their OL as a Luck keeper owner, but i think NYJ will emerge as a KC/DEN quality DL this year and IND may not look so bad. Not going to touch this one and would lean TEN if anything, but I wouldn't be shocked if they suddenly remember how to block when they aren't dealing with studs

 

[Alan Tongue]

Does anybody think JAX will get to 14?

 

[C-MAN]

I would really be interested in seeing those Indy under stats as well. Think this game should go over. Also like the Indy team total over. Indy secondary is a mess and will allow Mariota to make some plays down the field. Tennessee defense has faced Winston and Manziel -two of the worst offenses in the league. Now they get Luck and an Indy offense that has been frustrated by bills and Jets two of the best defenses in the league.

 

[inZane]

I would really be interested in seeing those Indy under stats as well. Think this game should go over. Also like the Indy team total over. Indy secondary is a mess and will allow Mariota to make some plays down the field. Tennessee defense has faced Winston and Manziel -two of the worst offenses in the league. Now they get Luck and an Indy offense that has been frustrated by bills and Jets two of the best defenses in the league.

Your take on the game makes a lot of sense, c-man. I'm not convinced one way or the other, but here's some of the trends I was referring to;

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/matchups/g1_trends_3.html

 

[chopz33]

cowboys trade for Matt Cassell

 

[nbafan88]

Does anybody think JAX will get to 14?

It opened at 14.

 

[Zeke]

Maybe he meant will they score 14 points. If that's the question, yes I do.

 

[Gyno]

JAX might score garbage points at end if it gets ugly.

 

[JonStarks]

2 games I really like this week.

Ravens -2.5 -- Don't see Balty going 0-3, especially losing the home opener. Going to be a tough division this year as usual, starting 0-3 would be an extremely deep hole to climb out of. I think we see Dalton play below average with a couple of INTs. I think we see Balty establish a running game. I think we see Balty's defense step up...Balty wins 24-13.

Seattle (teased)--- I think they blow out Chicago, I just would never lay 16 points. Tease it with Balty or tease it with NE. Or get really cute and tease it with both. Seattle will obviously be pumped up for this one..first home game of the year and Chancellor is back. Arizona looks good so Seattle needs to pick shit up quickly. Jimmy Graham is already bitching and moaning, so I think we see Seattle throw the ball a little more in this game. Chicago's defense sucks. Chicago's offense sucks. Jimmy Clausen could barely throw the ball over the defensive line when he entered the game last weekend. The Chicago Bears currently have 3 valuable assets: Matt Forte, John Fox, and Robbie Gould. Unfortunately, none of those 3 individuals can tackle or throw a football. Chicago will get destroyed.

 

[JonStarks]

I also sneakily like Philadelphia this weekend, but could never support them because...well...they are based out of Philadelphia.

Everyone thinks the Eagles suck. Everyone thinks the Jets are really good. Truth be told, Eagles aren't as bad as they've played, and Jets aren't as good as they've played. Demarco Murray hurt his hamstring so he will not play in this game. I actually think that is an advantage for Philly because Darren Sproles is a MUCH better fit for this offense...he should be on the field most of the time. I think we see a NY Jet letdown and Philly get their first win of the season.

 

[dudleysdad]

The jets defensive front should abuse the eagles crap OL.