Week 3 Discussion Thread

Saints-Packers I could see being another low-scoring one. Olave especially with Saints pass pro issues lacks much of an edge over Jaire Alexander, no Kamara to hurt Packers run D with, Aaron Jones I see being another important injury if his hamstring still isn't heeled.
 
Wow, this is one helluva awful card.

A Thursday night mismatch.

0-2 Pats vs Rodgers-less Jets (and it gets the Nantz-Romo treatment lol)

Russ takes his faded talent to South Beach

Buffalo/Washington is actually their best game of the week and it gets CBS's fourth team?

Tennessee/Cleveland will be the usual 19-16 fare

Indy/Baltimore could be interesting if Richardson gets out of the protocol

Carolina/Seattle no thanks

The Fox early card is better, Atl/Det, NO/GB and LAC/Min should be watchable.

The late card might be the worst of the year, two top 5 teams playing two bottom 5 teams.

Sunday night, we have to watch Pittsburgh's O again?

The Monday night games are watchable but why is ABC killing their 7 o'clock syndication hour with the early game? ESPN should always get the early game. No wonder Disney is losing their ass.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I don't think Lions will have an easy time scoring, especially given Atlanta's secondary. Terrell 37.7 passer rating allowed so far, Jessie Bates has been a good add. Yes Packers scored 24 but only 224 total yards of offense.
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They faced Young in his first NFL start ever and Love without his top 2 weapons in A Jones and Watson. Both on their home turf. Facing 2 of the projected worst offenses in the NFL at home skews those stats. Lions in Detroit is another story.
 
ptcap12150 said:
They faced Young in his first NFL start ever and Love without his top 2 weapons in A Jones and Watson. Both on their home turf. Facing 2 of the projected worst offenses in the NFL at home skews those stats. Lions in Detroit is another story.
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That's a fair point, I get that they haven't been tested so much. But Young and Love also had their worst starts by far when facing Atlanta. Speaking of weapons btw, it's still uncertain that ARSB will play.
 
any reason to think bellicheks dominance doesn't continue over wilson ?

Feels like an auto new england play here........only thing i could think is their offense looks worse then last year since bill obrien came on
 
Gandolf said:
Wow, this is one helluva awful card.

A Thursday night mismatch.

0-2 Pats vs Rodgers-less Jets (and it gets the Nantz-Romo treatment lol)

Russ takes his faded talent to South Beach

Buffalo/Washington is actually their best game of the week and it gets CBS's fourth team?

Tennessee/Cleveland will be the usual 19-16 fare

Indy/Baltimore could be interesting if Richardson gets out of the protocol

Carolina/Seattle no thanks

The Fox early card is better, Atl/Det, NO/GB and LAC/Min should be watchable.

The late card might be the worst of the year, two top 5 teams playing two bottom 5 teams.

Sunday night, we have to watch Pittsburgh's O again?

The Monday night games are watchable but why is ABC killing their 7 o'clock syndication hour with the early game? ESPN should always get the early game. No wonder Disney is losing their ass.
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Pretty much sums up my thoughts on this card. Three 4pm games -- they'll just never get it.
 
C-MAN said:
Buff-Wash over 44.5 looks solid. Buff should get 28- 30 and Wash offense will put up enough to contribute.
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I think the Bills may still game plan to chew up clock and just get the w. Seeing how lw they took the easy completions and moved the ball with ease why change it. Looks like wash won't shy away from banging Robinson which will keep the clock moving. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 26-17 type game here. D line for Buffalo is def much improved though Floyd's injury is worth noting. He hasn't practiced this week. Jordan Phillips also questionable which would this out the d line significantly. Not too happy about that the was wash has been running the ball.

Notable injuries

Hyde- hasn't practiced (hammy). If he doesn't go It's either Rapp or Damar which is scary

Bernard listed as questionable at MLB if he doesn't go it's Dodson who has looked lost. Milano has been playing out of his mind but he can only do so much & Dodson might be a liability.


Offensively one notable injury Knox hasn't practiced yet. Something to consider is the Bills have def committed to 12 personnel and it won't be as successful should Knox miss.
 
Trying to figure out what to do with this shit show tonight, I would think niners kick the living shit out of Gmen but dunno bout laying dd on thu night.

looking at props doesn’t seem super easy cause I’m not sure niners will want to work mccaffery too hard on a short week in a game they probably don’t need to.

If aiyuk out I was thinking maybe kittle finally gets himself a decent game after a couple 3 catch, not shit for yards performances. I could def get behind kittle ov 39.5 yards, 4+ catches, and if we wanna get jiggy with it a td at 2/1. Seems like a good game to work this guy little more than mccaffery. That said I just saw a thing that mccaffery is 1 td away from tying Jerry rice for the niners record of consecutive games with a td!! That sounds kinda meaningful! Running backs have 3 tds against nyg in 2 weeks! Obviously we not playing him -285 to score a td in a nfl game, that just silly! But,, how bout this, mccaffery anytime td in 1st half? That only -105 and I gotta assume A) niners establish a nice lead, B) mccaffery prob won’t play much after half assuming niners do get a nice lead, C) they probably want to get him a td also w the idea to make this a light work game if possible which it should be.

Mccaffery 1st half td -105 I likey

Kittle catches and yards and maybe a little plus money on a td ain’t so bad either. That bout all I got.
 
2daBank said:
Trying to figure out what to do with this shit show tonight, I would think niners kick the living shit out of Gmen but dunno bout laying dd on thu night.

looking at props doesn’t seem super easy cause I’m not sure niners will want to work mccaffery too hard on a short week in a game they probably don’t need to.

If aiyuk out I was thinking maybe kittle finally gets himself a decent game after a couple 3 catch, not shit for yards performances. I could def get behind kittle ov 39.5 yards, 4+ catches, and if we wanna get jiggy with it a td at 2/1. Seems like a good game to work this guy little more than mccaffery. That said I just saw a thing that mccaffery is 1 td away from tying Jerry rice for the niners record of consecutive games with a td!! That sounds kinda meaningful! Running backs have 3 tds against nyg in 2 weeks! Obviously we not playing him -285 to score a td in a nfl game, that just silly! But,, how bout this, mccaffery anytime td in 1st half? That only -105 and I gotta assume A) niners establish a nice lead, B) mccaffery prob won’t play much after half assuming niners do get a nice lead, C) they probably want to get him a td also w the idea to make this a light work game if possible which it should be.

Mccaffery 1st half td -105 I likey

Kittle catches and yards and maybe a little plus money on a td ain’t so bad either. That bout all I got.
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Thursday night is hard on the dogs. Who did i bet ? The Giants lol
 
spottie2935 said:
Thursday night is hard on the dogs. Who did i bet ? The Giants lol
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It also has tendency to be lower scoring which I mean makes 10+ points more appealing. I dunno, I don’t really want either side. I like the idea of kittle finally having a decent game, ertz got 6 catches and 57 yards on Gmen d and I just assume they gonna let kittle have a big game at some point, you need to keep crazy man happy, he likes doing interviews after primetime game, seems like a reasonably decent bet he has a at least a solid game which really all he needs to crack his numbers, he could be in for a monster if giants try manning him up!

The mccaffery 1st half td makes sense to me just cause that sounds like a record they would want to keep in tact and giants havnt had any success keeping backs out the end zone.

Far as final score 24-14 or some crap wouldn’t shock me at all.
 
I need to see some raw data backing up the Thursday night low-scoring trend. I too think they tend to be lower scoring than normal but I don't really understand why a team's offense or defense tightens up more on a Thursday than a Sunday.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I think the Bills may still game plan to chew up clock and just get the w. Seeing how lw they took the easy completions and moved the ball with ease why change it. Looks like wash won't shy away from banging Robinson which will keep the clock moving. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 26-17 type game here. D line for Buffalo is def much improved though Floyd's injury is worth noting. He hasn't practiced this week. Jordan Phillips also questionable which would this out the d line significantly. Not too happy about that the was wash has been running the ball.

Notable injuries

Hyde- hasn't practiced (hammy). If he doesn't go It's either Rapp or Damar which is scary

Bernard listed as questionable at MLB if he doesn't go it's Dodson who has looked lost. Milano has been playing out of his mind but he can only do so much & Dodson might be a liability.


Offensively one notable injury Knox hasn't practiced yet. Something to consider is the Bills have def committed to 12 personnel and it won't be as successful should Knox miss.
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Appreciate the info
 
peelpub94 said:
I need to see some raw data backing up the Thursday night low-scoring trend. I too think they tend to be lower scoring than normal but I don't really understand why a team's offense or defense tightens up more on a Thursday than a Sunday.
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Man the 1st couple years this cash grab bull shit game I just blindly bet 1st half under and it crushed for long time, I think eventually they started bringing totals lower and eventually I moved on but it was nice. I’m not sure it about tightening up as much as 1) offenses simply don’t have as much time to implement and work on a game plan, defenses can pretty much know they gonna get vanilla version of a teams offense without much focus on exposing a teams weaknesses 2) guys are freaking still sore! Nfl games feel like a car wreck, I dunno bout you but I typically need more than 2-3 days to feel good after a wreck (hopefully you a safer driver than me, lol) I think adrenaline more often than not favors the defensive side the ball. 3) everyone just wants to get thru this game healthy and get to the few extra days of rest, teams a lot more likely to just milk the shit out the clock. These the reasons always made sense to me. It just a shitty thing to do for a league sooo concerned w players safety (not as much as making money! wink wink). I despise this game if you couldn’t tell, lol.
 
2daBank said:
Man the 1st couple years this cash grab bull shit game I just blindly bet 1st half under and it crushed for long time, I think eventually they started bringing totals lower and eventually I moved on but it was nice. I’m not sure it about tightening up as much as 1) offenses simply don’t have as much time to implement and work on a game plan, defenses can pretty much know they gonna get vanilla version of a teams offense without much focus on exposing a teams weaknesses 2) guys are freaking still sore! Nfl games feel like a car wreck, I dunno bout you but I typically need more than 2-3 days to feel good after a wreck (hopefully you a safer driver than me, lol) I think adrenaline more often than not favors the defensive side the ball. 3) everyone just wants to get thru this game healthy and get to the few extra days of rest, teams a lot more likely to just milk the shit out the clock. These the reasons always made sense to me. It just a shitty thing to do for a league sooo concerned w players safety (not as much as making money! wink wink). I despise this game if you couldn’t tell, lol.
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I'm with you.. I cannot stand the NFL. But it's basically just a Sunday habit at this point with a ton of betting opportunities, fantasy, dfs with friends, etc.

I think your reasoning is sound. All of those factors make sense.

Also - not cool to joke about this but are you getting into crashes often? Please be safe my friend!
 
Intersting prop i saw across the street...elijah mitchell rush yards over 29. Figure Mcaff will be on a pitch count tonight, plus the 49ers will be running clock all 2nd half.
 
Tito said:
Intersting prop i saw across the street...elijah mitchell rush yards over 29. Figure Mcaff will be on a pitch count tonight, plus the 49ers will be running clock all 2nd half.
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If you like this, probably smart to SGP with 49ers to cover
 
ScopeY said:
If you like this, probably smart to SGP with 49ers to cover
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It’s not my play. I saw someone post it and I assume that would be their reasoning.
I can see it too, short week as well. Giants are hurting on their o-line which was already atrocious. I think niners cover but too close for a play.
 
Tito said:
Intersting prop i saw across the street...elijah mitchell rush yards over 29. Figure Mcaff will be on a pitch count tonight, plus the 49ers will be running clock all 2nd half.
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Hard to count on a guy that isn’t getting a snap. I think he will tonight but man I’d feel better about it if he had gotten say 2-3 touches recently..
 
Diggs torn ACL Cowboys

They were my pick to challenge 9ers and surpass Philly but this is a big injury and you add in average YPP and bad YPC
 
HUNT said:
Get off the Falcons nuts
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He doesn’t want to believe that Is the saints division! One these days they will figure out how to actually score tds, then they gonna be really tough! Maybe when that kumara guy comes back!
 
2daBank said:
He doesn’t want to believe that Is the saints division! One these days they will figure out how to actually score tds, then they gonna be really tough! Maybe when that kumara guy comes back!
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I've lost too much over the years on NOLA

I actually don't mind them so much but I think ATL closed the gap significantly year over year. Bet they wish they still had Ridley. We know damn well Baker can't keep it up for a full season and Carolina is Carolina. Two horse race for my money, clearly Ridder needs to not make stupid mistakes but as a whole I like that team in a shitty division.
 
spottie2935 said:
Pats bet looks iffy

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com
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good find - and this trend actually makes sense........preseason darlings that are overrated and market is still catching up. last year rams saints and raiders all got preseason hype, and took market awhile to adjust. pats were overvalued going into the year for sure. the fact the eagles line was close to 3 was insane
 
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Yeah, not picking the Pats yet, just pointing out they played two of the top 5 teams in the league (especially on offense) so not surprised they are 0-2. Jets offense obviously not in same category as Miami and Philly
 
C-MAN said:
Yeah, not picking the Pats yet, just pointing out they played two of the top 5 teams in the league (especially on offense) so not surprised they are 0-2. Jets offense obviously not in same category as Miami and Philly
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I dunno how the hell anyone scores in that game? I actually think Zach Wilson has a better chance to hit a big play at some point, of course he could be the key to pats scoring points. Not sure if 36.5 low enough? Feel like 17 points could easily win it.
 
twinkie13 said:

For Bank
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Unfortunately I kinda just heard that the other day! I did try to get a jump start by playing his 1st half td -105 instead the redic price for anytime all game td at freaking -285, I don’t care if he scores in 20 straight it tough to lay that for a nfl player to score! I’ve laid -250ish a few times with Michigan Rb but that a big difference playing against a cup cake!
 
2daBank said:
I dunno how the hell anyone scores in that game? I actually think Zach Wilson has a better chance to hit a big play at some point, of course he could be the key to pats scoring points. Not sure if 36.5 low enough? Feel like 17 points could easily win it.
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Weather in NJ, Baltimore and DC is supposed to heavily affect the games on Sunday
 
2daBank said:
I dunno how the hell anyone scores in that game? I actually think Zach Wilson has a better chance to hit a big play at some point, of course he could be the key to pats scoring points. Not sure if 36.5 low enough? Feel like 17 points could easily win it.
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The thing about the low total is that a pick six could very well screw up an "under." Interceptions and, hence, short fields are quite likely in this one methinks
 
VirginiaCavs said:
The thing about the low total is that a pick six could very well screw up an "under." Interceptions and, hence, short fields are quite likely in this one methinks
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Everything I'm seeing is that's the game that could be a real mud pit, hard to predict two days out but sounds like the winds are going be pretty much past Baltimore and DC tomorrow night/early Sun morning but those will still be sloppy, Jets game looks like a ton of running
 
KJ said:
Everything I'm seeing is that's the game that could be a real mud pit, hard to predict two days out but sounds like the winds are going be pretty much past Baltimore and DC tomorrow night/early Sun morning but those will still be sloppy, Jets game looks like a ton of running
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Maybe Breece will get more than 4 carries this week but with that idiotic coaching staff I wouldn't bet on it.
 
2daBank said:
I dunno how the hell anyone scores in that game? I actually think Zach Wilson has a better chance to hit a big play at some point, of course he could be the key to pats scoring points. Not sure if 36.5 low enough? Feel like 17 points could easily win it.
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On first H under 18.5
 
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