Week 3 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Sep 22 Thu 2022

07:15 PM
301Pittsburgh Steelers+3½
-110		O 40
-110
302Cleveland Browns+1 Markets-3½
-110		U 40
-110
Sep 25 Sun 2022

12:00 PM
461Baltimore Ravens-3
-105		O 44
-110
462New England Patriots+1 Markets+3
-105		U 44
-110
12:00 PM
463Buffalo Bills-4½
-115		O 51
-115
464Miami Dolphins+1 Markets+4½
-105		U 51
-105
12:00 PM
465Cincinnati Bengals-4½
-113		O 43
-110
466New York Jets+1 Markets+4½
-107		U 43
-110
12:00 PM
467New Orleans Saints-2½
-120		O 41
-110
468Carolina Panthers+1 Markets+2½
+100		U 41
-110
12:00 PM
469Detroit Lions+7
-110		O 52
-110
470Minnesota Vikings+1 Markets-7
-110		U 52
-110
12:00 PM
471Kansas City Chiefs-7
-108		O 49½
-110
472Indianapolis Colts+1 Markets+7
-112		U 49½
-110
12:00 PM
475Philadelphia Eagles-4½
-110		O 51
-110
476Washington Commanders+1 Markets+4½
-110		U 51
-110
03:05 PM
479Jacksonville Jaguars+7
-113		O 48
-115
480Los Angeles Chargers+1 Markets-7
-107		U 48
-105
03:25 PM
483Atlanta Falcons+2½
-115		O 42½
-108
484Seattle Seahawks+1 Markets-2½
-105		U 42½
-112
07:20 PM
487San Francisco 49ers+1½
-115		O 43½
-105
488Denver Broncos+1 Markets-1½
-105		U 43½
-115
Sep 26 Mon 2022

07:15 PM
489Dallas Cowboys+3
-105		O 39½
-110
490New York Giants-3
-105		U 39½
-110
 
Last edited:
Lines that look like they are begging for money. posted 3 in last week's discussion thread (Raiders,Steelers, Fins)

this week at first glance these look like they are begging

Steelers+3.5- Browns imploded vs the Jets and the Steelers looked bad, but why the hook? Pitt is the worse team 2 backups at qb the Browns are probably going to run wild

Patriots+3- Pats back on track with a pretty solid looking win vs Pitt. Ravens implode and defense is completely exposed by the Fins. Patriots dogged at home will see plenty of action I am sure. Ravens will load up vs the run and see if Mac can exploit the secondary with his noodle arm & lukewarm wrs. I think it's a bad matchup for the Pats

Bengals-4.5- Jets off a miracle come from behind win. I love the Jets so much for saving my week. Bengals are only -4.5? You know the entire world will be on Burrow. Thought regardless this would be a 5.5-6. I can't stomach backing Flacco two weeks in a row but I'm very leery of Cincy here. Watch them win by 4
 
SO many Bills thoughts which I'll post, but have to see what happens with injuries throughout the week. For now I will say GL if you want to bet against the Bills. Yes I'm a die hard fan but I'm no homer- before ppl try and say that look at my posts I played the Jags ml vs the Bills last year and said they'd prob lose to KC.

They are on a mission this year to obliterate everyone. Problem is they really have the offensive weapons to do it. I was at the game so I have to rewatch but to me Allen wasn't even really at the top of his passing game and he still dominated. Diggs didn't even have his #2 wr and couldn't get covered.. It can come from anywhere.

Fins offense came roaring back vs the Ravens. Tua is not facing the swiss cheese Ravens D this week. Said it lw both the Ravens and Fins D are overrated. Hill/Waddle has to be the most lethal 1-2 combo in football and it's very likely they get over on our corners a couple times, but you have to look at the other side and ask yourself "will Allen respond with a score?"

I say just keep blindly betting the Bills tt over because it's cashing for a while.
 
Lexington 125 said:
SO many Bills thoughts which I'll post, but have to see what happens with injuries throughout the week. For now I will say GL if you want to bet against the Bills. Yes I'm a die hard fan but I'm no homer- before ppl try and say that look at my posts I played the Jags ml vs the Bills last year and said they'd prob lose to KC.

They are on a mission this year to obliterate everyone. Problem is they really have the offensive weapons to do it. I was at the game so I have to rewatch but to me Allen wasn't even really at the top of his passing game and he still dominated. Diggs didn't even have his #2 wr and couldn't get covered.. It can come from anywhere.

Fins offense came roaring back vs the Ravens. Tua is not facing the swiss cheese Ravens D this week. Said it lw both the Ravens and Fins D are overrated. Hill/Waddle has to be the most lethal 1-2 combo in football and it's very likely they get over on our corners a couple times, but you have to look at the other side and ask yourself "will Allen respond with a score?"

I say just keep blindly betting the Bills tt over because it's cashing for a while.
Click to expand...
Saw a stat that they have the 2nd highest pressure rate in the league, and they have only blitzed this year 3 times

If they can keep getting anywhere near that pressure only rushing 4, they ain't losing
 
Baltimore dropped to 2.5! You shitting me? As a Pats fan I thought for sure this was hitting 3.5 before kickoff.
 
guaranteeed said:
Saw a stat that they have the 2nd highest pressure rate in the league, and they have only blitzed this year 3 times

If they can keep getting anywhere near that pressure only rushing 4, they ain't losing
Click to expand...
I said it to start the season but they have a deep defensive front, & rotating in is keeping them fresh. Really want to see Oliver back in action for the Fins game. He was limited yesterday but I think he was held out last week to be ready for Miami. I'm trying to temper my expectations but I do think they will be able to disrupt Tua. Rousseau is really making his mark on the dl but as of right now Jordan Phillips & Settle are ??? so that depth is in question.
 
Joe Osborne:
The Patriots have been a home underdog 19 times under Bill Belichick. They've gone 15-4 ATS in those games. (But that's 12-2 with Brady and 3-2 without.)
 
Have to watch what's going on with the Bill's injuries in the secondary. I think they are trying to hide it but Hyde likely isn't playing. Poyer is listed as ? and hasn't practiced so if he doesn't go it's two rookie corners with backup safeties. Oof. Benford is NOT playing like a rookie but then again he hasn't faced Hill/Waddle. I know the over will be public but it's over or nothing in this matchup. If both safeties don't go for buffalo I'm banging the over. already played Bills tt o28.5.
 
Hyde done for the year and news broke last night that Poyer will not play. Now the Bills will have 2 rookie corners with Hamlin at ss & Jaquan Johnson at fs.

So the Bills line drops to -4.5 with all the injuries & team total is 28.5.

ok might be talking to myself at this point but more Bills thoughts....

Easy to look at this game and think the Dolphins will throw all over the Bills. They may have thrown all over them with Hyde & Poyer in anyway. However, even without Oliver/Phillips they can still generate pressure. I think they look to get to Tua early and disrupt the passing game. To me the Fins tt o23.5 looks waaaay better to me than playing the Dolphins ats, if I were to wager on them.

The Fins d is not going to shut down the Bills. If the Bills get up two scores they may take the air out of the ball a little, but in the end this is a top tier offense playing at a high level. They're going to score tds. Said this before the Ravens game both Miami & Balty D severely overrated imo. Getting torched by Lamar lw doesn't mean they suddenly get motivated & right the ship vs Josh Allen. cb Xavien Howard is questionable with a groin injury- haven't heard one person mention that yet. I really think Hill/Waddle is the best 1/2 in the game but Tua is the one you have to trust to make the reads & throws. Josh should be able to find mismatches and I trust him to make all the throws. Diggs is playing out of his mind and while I normally hate backing a wr to have 3 consecutive big games I don't think I can get away from a Diggs prop. Again it could come from anywhere though- Gabe should be a go, Knox has a breakout game on deck. McKenzie might be a sneaky play this week. I love that they gave Cook carries down the stretch off a first carry fumble/benching in the first game. He ripped off a nice 30 yarder and I wouldn't be surprised to see him sprinkled in. I could see the Bills trying to slow things down and establish the run, they don't want a tired defense down the stretch of this one.


I think the Bills tt o28.5 is the best wager in this game.
 
All across the internet I see a ton of Colts picks. GOY Colts, top play Indy, underdog outright winner Indy. What in the world is everyone seeing in this one???

I love underdogs as much as anyone, but I think KC might blow the doors off Indy here. Taylor rushing yds prop over or td scored to me is a much better option. Indy has zero chance of winning if Taylor doesn't go off. Ryan is washed. WASHED. I wouldn't be surprised if Indy kept it close, but I think KC is the better team, is healthy and can key in on Taylor every snap he plays. KC dd win unless Indy finds a way to muck it up early.
 
My thoughts exactly Lex. Indy has not shown a pulse and KC looks to be the 2nd best team in the league behind Bills. Sure, anything can happen and Indy should be desperate, but I don’t know how they can fix everything in a week. I would think KC TT under would be a better bet than Indy+ because there’s no way Colts are even in the game unless they keep KC from scoring. They certainly are not winning a track meet.
 
Don’t forget Buff loves playing in Mia. They have had a ton of success there including winning SU 4 out of last 5. There will be a ton and I mean a ton of bills fans in that stadium. That being said, I think this is going to be a close game. Mia has been playing great even going back to the 2nd half of last season. Im hoping for Bills to pull out the win, but I’m not betting it. Agree the team total over it’s a better option.
 
Buff 1H TT 14.5 is +110. Going to be upper 80's with feels like temps in upper 90's. My thinking is if the heat comes into play it'll be later in the game but they will start off fast per usual.
 
I’m not sure who is playing QB for the chargers, but I don't think Jacksonville has ever won out there (San Diego or LA). Both venues have been a house of horrors for Jack. Really like the chargers at the current line.
 
C-MAN said:
I’m not sure who is playing QB for the chargers, but I don't think Jacksonville has ever won out there (San Diego or LA). Both venues have been a house of horrors for Jack. Really like the chargers at the current line.
Click to expand...
I think it's like week 8 of 2019 since the Jags have even won a road game.
 
C-MAN said:
I’m not sure who is playing QB for the chargers, but I don't think Jacksonville has ever won out there (San Diego or LA). Both venues have been a house of horrors for Jack. Really like the chargers at the current line.
Click to expand...
In 2019 Jax won in Oakland. But generally the history of Jax on the west coast has been terrible
 
C-MAN said:
My thoughts exactly Lex. Indy has not shown a pulse and KC looks to be the 2nd best team in the league behind Bills. Sure, anything can happen and Indy should be desperate, but I don’t know how they can fix everything in a week. I would think KC TT under would be a better bet than Indy+ because there’s no way Colts are even in the game unless they keep KC from scoring. They certainly are not winning a track meet.
Click to expand...
I Took Colts +5.5
I Looked At Next Week, (The Old...Look Ahead Game)
SNF...kc @ tb...
They COULD Overlook The Colts Today...
:shake:
 
KC SEEMS To Be The Trap For Me. Usually I'd Say, "Oh KC Is Gonna To Smash Indy! KC Is Unstoppable! And Indy Lost To Jax?! Gotta Bet The Farm On KC! Hold Up Now... Big Confidence Win VS Chargers. They Sleep On Indy...Just Thinking Out Loud Here!
 
Vap'sBack said:
KC SEEMS To Be The Trap For Me. Usually I'd Say, "Oh KC Is Gonna To Smash Indy! KC Is Unstoppable! And Indy Lost To Jax?! Gotta Bet The Farm On KC! Hold Up Now... Big Confidence Win VS Chargers. They Sleep On Indy...Just Thinking Out Loud Here!
Click to expand...
Seen this alot, especially earlier in the season, where the more desperate team wins these games.

But having said that, I'm not betting Matty Ice with your money. I'll just move to another game.
 
Vap'sBack said:
KC SEEMS To Be The Trap For Me. Usually I'd Say, "Oh KC Is Gonna To Smash Indy! KC Is Unstoppable! And Indy Lost To Jax?! Gotta Bet The Farm On KC! Hold Up Now... Big Confidence Win VS Chargers. They Sleep On Indy...Just Thinking Out Loud Here!
Click to expand...

Kc doesn’t sleep after playing a division rival. Their record anx even ats is quite good the week after a div game. They also fantastic in sept under Reid, and this a mini bye, we know how good Reid is with extra time! No chance I’m putting money on colts.
 
2daBank said:
Kc doesn’t sleep after playing a division rival. Their record anx even ats is quite good the week after a div game. They also fantastic in sept under Reid, and this a mini bye, we know how good Reid is with extra time! No chance I’m putting money on colts.
Click to expand...
I Stand By My Thoughts. I Will Accept, "You Were Right Vap" After The Game... Hahahaha!
 
Only side I really loved today was bungals. I’ll be a huge square and say there no way they fall to 0-3 at the hands of the jets right? One these games they gonna figure things out and look good!
 
Vap'sBack said:
I Stand By My Thoughts. I Will Accept, "You Were Right Vap" After The Game... Hahahaha!
Click to expand...

I seriously don’t care, I hope you right. Not like I’m laying it with kc. Just can think of a million things I’d rather put money on than going against them with the colts!! Gl
 
Another little tidbit. Remember last year when everyone was trying to leave kc for dead then they had a monster game vs the raiders? We were all puzzled at how the raiders insisted on playing different D than what it appeared the blueprint was against kc with the 2 deep safeties. Raiders played tight man 1 high and got roasted! Guess who the colts DC is now? That right, same bucket head moron who was raiders DC last year!!
 
Ravens shouldn’t have much trouble w pats should they? Can’t imagine their problems at corner matter much this week, anyone can cover pats wrs!!
 
Colts should be able to get Taylor off this week at least. I’d look at playing his props if you lije colts
 
Davis Mills might surprise people today against heavy-zone, rarely blitzing Bears. His road numbers are awful but I’m hopeful that‘s just a product of the quality of competition he‘s faced in road games. I think Texans run D, it’s weakness so far, can start living up to the post-preseason hype of being improved.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Davis Mills might surprise people today against heavy-zone, rarely blitzing Bears. His road numbers are awful but I’m hopeful that‘s just a product of the quality of competition he‘s faced in road games. I think Texans run D, it’s weakness so far, can start living up to the post-preseason hype of being improved.
Click to expand...

I think Mills pretty decent. How did he do in his games vs colts d last year? That should be a fairly decent indicator shouldnt it?
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Lost both games by combined 61-3. oof
Click to expand...

Oh shit, was hoping you were gonna tell me he at least put up bunch of garbage time yards and points! Lol. I dunno that bears have the same level of defensive pieces, just assume they prob playing same scheme their coach had colts playing?
 
2daBank said:
Oh shit, was hoping you were gonna tell me he at least put up bunch of garbage time yards and points! Lol. I dunno that bears have the same level of defensive pieces, just assume they prob playing same scheme their coach had colts playing?
Click to expand...
Lovie Smith does know Eberflus tho.
 
2daBank said:
I mean seriously, jags lead the division! This isn’t even close to a must win for the colts!
Click to expand...

I forgot their 0-1-1. Just in general 0-3 would be tough for what should have been a semi contender. But yes 8-9 wins this shit division.
 
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