Week 16 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Dec 25 Fri 2020

4:30 PM
451Minnesota Vikings+7
-115		+270O 51½
-110
452New Orleans Saints+2 Markets-7
-105		-320U 51½
-110
Dec 26 Sat 2020

1:00 PM
457Tampa Bay Buccaneers-9½
-105		-410O 54
-110
458Detroit Lions+2 Markets+9½
-115		+330U 54
-110
4:30 PM
459San Francisco 49ers+3½
+105		+185O 49
-110
460Arizona Cardinals+2 Markets-3½
-125		-215U 49
-110
8:15 PM
461Miami Dolphins-2½
-120		-150O 47
-110
462Las Vegas Raiders+2 Markets+2½
+100		+130U 47
-110
Dec 27 Sun 2020

1:00 PM
455Cleveland Browns-9½
-105		-425O 46½
-110
456New York Jets+2 Markets+9½
-115		+345U 46½
-110
1:00 PM
467Chicago Bears-9
+105		-375O 47
-110
468Jacksonville Jaguars+2 Markets+9
-125		+305U 47
-110
1:00 PM
473Atlanta Falcons+10½
-105		+430O 54
-110
474Kansas City Chiefs+2 Markets-10½
-115		-550U 54
-110
4:05 PM
453Denver Broncos+3
+100		+160O 48½
-110
454Los Angeles Chargers+2 Markets-3
-120		-180U 48½
-110
4:05 PM
475Los Angeles Rams+1½
-110		+107O 47
-112
476Seattle Seahawks+2 Markets-1½
-110		-127U 47
-108
4:25 PM
477Philadelphia Eagles-1
-123		-132O 49
-112
478Dallas Cowboys+2 Markets+1
+103		+112U 49
-108
8:20 PM
479Tennessee Titans+3½
-115		+160O 56
-110
480Green Bay Packers+2 Markets-3½
-105		-180U 56
-110
Dec 28 Mon 2020

8:15 PM
481Buffalo Bills-7
-108		-315O 44½
-110
482New England Patriots+2 Markets+7
-112		+265U 44½
-110
 
Potato Skins/Panthers game moved to 4:00 pm so Eagles/Cowboys game will still matter at kickoff.
 
Sure wish the early money would have waited on rams till that line got to +3! It was pk right before games, after jets win it shot up to +2.5, at that point it looks like rams money came in but why? Why would you ever bet a team so early with 2.5? Shouldn’t you wait and see if ya can get a 3? What’s the worst that can happen? Do they just buy the hook at that point? I don’t get it.

with that said I love the rams this week!! I’ll wait and see but most likely it never gets to 3 so I’ll just take what I can get. I’m sure the ppl who bet based off what they just saw havnt bet yet so just gotta hope they load up on Seattle closer to kick!! You know how this story goes, it one the more predictable unpredictable things about the nfl, team A losses to worst team in football, team B who back to their winning ways become the darlings, team A wins the game! Lol.

As if that wasn’t enough rams have beat team Russ 5 of the last 6! The one Seattle win was a crazy ass game Seattle won by 1 as a -1.5 dog! Go figure! Lol. The one concern I would have here is Seattle pass rush is much improved since the 1st meeting where Goff threw for 300 yards and Russ threw a couple picks as that game was right in the middle of Seattle mid season swoon.

I actually might like the under more than the rams! Ramsey totally took DK away the 1st meeting and I think will do so again, he is the best corner you could have facing Metcalf cause he has the size and willingness to match his physicality. Seattle has really been getting back to running the ball more with Carson getting healthy and the ageless wonder Gore still having a impact! You know rams are gonna want to run the ball to protect Goff and with the emergence of Akers they should have a better shot than the 1st meeting. Running doesn’t equal under but I wouldn’t expect either to have a ton of success doing it as both defenses top 10 in ypc against!! I just think the attempts will be there to keep the clock running!! Both defenses among the best getting pressure in the league if you ignore Seattle numbers before getting adams healthy and making moves! I’d argue since then both these teams are top 5 in this area! Rams are the best in the league allowing only 5.5 yards per pass attempt! I have to look at Seattle numbers in that area since the defensive changes but I’d assume they better than their 19th ranking as the secondary has improved as you would expect from Carroll defenses and when your front getting more pressure! 24 should win this game so I think 47 feels a tad high.
 
Already took o54 in Det. Stafford should get his against the Tampa Bay secondary and Detroit defense .....well good luck

Also on Tenny +3.5. This should be a very entertaining game, but expect Tennessee to have their way on the ground and control the clock. The points could come in handy.
 
C-MAN said:
Already took o54 in Det. Stafford should get his against the Tampa Bay secondary and Detroit defense .....well good luck

Also on Tenny +3.5. This should be a very entertaining game, but expect Tennessee to have their way on the ground and control the clock. The points could come in handy.
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that titans/packers game sure feels like another potential shootout! How will packers play it? Will they try to sell out to stop Henry and let tannehill carve them up or will they let Henry just bully them for 60 minutes? Gotta assume Rodgers knows he gonna have to score every possession and he just might vs that titans defense! I’ve been thrilled with how scoring has come down a great deal and some unders coming in but sure doesn’t feel like that with these 2! Surely it gonna take 30+ to win the titans game! Packers have went for 30+ in 10 of their 14 games! Titans have been there in 9 games including 5 in a row!!
 
Capaholic said:
I think GB needs to get 2 or 3 stops total and they win the game. I have no idea how that D will stop GB. By DVOA they are 28th overall, 30th against the pass and their offensive opponents rank 24th overall.
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it’s really hard to get that browns game out of my head. If baker can light you up to the tune of 4 tds in the 1st half what is Rodgers and company gonna do? Of course that a terrible way of capping the nfl as what we see one week rarely the same as the next. Then again we kinda see teams lighting up that titans defense every week!

Can pack get those 3 stops vs Henry? Somehow pack have managed to convince teams not to run as much they should on them!! Despite allowing 4.5 per carry teams only attempt 24 rushes a game for 110 yards. So whether it a product of packers getting leads and convincing teams to abandon the run or simply them playing garbage teams who dont stick with the run is the question? I tend to think there a little truth to both as packers are the highest rated 1st half team so they get leads and convince teams to throw more than they should in comeback mode. Easier done when facing crappy teams! All 3 packers losses their opponents stuck with the rushing attack, even the colts comeback they still ran as many times as threw it!!! That sets up pretty well for titans since their bread and butter is a perfect 50-50 split!!
 
Image
 
It’s crazy ravens could miss the playoffs going 11-5! In a year when they expanded the playoffs to 7 teams per side! Crazy. Would that be the best team to not make the playoffs in history? Gotta be right up there.

while on the nfc side we gonna have a sub .500 east champ and the suck ass bears still alive!! Bad time to be in the afc! Loaded with excellent records and kc at the top! How many afc teams would be serious contenders to Win the nfc? I’d argue even the ravens who might not make it could potentially win the nfc!!
 
Prob won’t happen. Fish have 2 really tough games to close out their season! At Oakland and at bills! Will that game matter to the bills or will it be a de facto bye week?
 
I simmed the games on the playoff machine on ESPN and came up with the following which did leave Balt out

1. KC
2 Buffalo
3. Cleveland
4. Indianapolis
5 Tennessee
6. Pitt
7 Miami

and

1 GB
2. NO
3. Seattle
4. Philly (yup)
5. Tampa
6. LAR
7. Zona

AFC... I have Pitt losing out.. Thus, Buffalo can rest starters in week 17. Miami wins both as well. Balt gets improbably shut out.

NFC.. Washington may not have a QB this week. Eagles playing better with Hurts and could come down to game vs. Wash in week 17. Philly is +600 at BOL and Cleveland +285 for what its worth

Edit: Just for fun.. If Pitt were to beat Indy and all things remained the same, the Colts would be the 11-5 team left out.

Edit 2: For more fun.. If Dallas wins out and Philly beats Washington in Week 17, Dallas would be in.
 
Last edited:
Capaholic said:
AFC... I have Pitt losing out.. Thus, Buffalo can rest starters in week 17. Miami wins both as well. Balt gets improbably shut out.
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Agree on Buffalo scenario, but wary of Mia dropping the road game this week. Off three straight home games and the big win putting away Pats & Belichick. Just not sure who will be at QB for Vegas.
 
The Raiders were a nice little story mid season before it went to shit. They can still help play spoiler and beat the Fins. I actually want Miami to make the playoffs just to keep the Ravens out. I think Balty is more than capable of getting hot and going to the SB should they get in- the whole season turnaround can be used as fodder for a motivational storyline.

At any rate, Vegas can't stop anyone. That's not going to change here. However Mariota might actually be a nice fit here. I am not as high on the Fins D as most and think any good running team will have success. Lawson and Van Noy both questionable. Xavien is a great corner but if Jacobs gets going and Mariota is able to move around Waller could go off. It's crazy both these teams have similar yds allowed per pass and rush, yet Miami allows 18.4 ppg vs vegas 30.1 ppg.

Gun to my head I think Miami wins but the over is worth a look to me. Ahmed is emerging as a threat and Fins get weapons back. I think it could be a high scoring affair
 
2daBank said:
that titans/packers game sure feels like another potential shootout! How will packers play it? Will they try to sell out to stop Henry and let tannehill carve them up or will they let Henry just bully them for 60 minutes? Gotta assume Rodgers knows he gonna have to score every possession and he just might vs that titans defense! I’ve been thrilled with how scoring has come down a great deal and some unders coming in but sure doesn’t feel like that with these 2! Surely it gonna take 30+ to win the titans game! Packers have went for 30+ in 10 of their 14 games! Titans have been there in 9 games including 5 in a row!!
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Check the weather for Green Bay on Sunday.

Looks like temps in the low 30's with a 30-40% chance of snow around game time that could affect the total.
 
Some good teaser teams I was looking at, NO, Buff, LAR, Tenn. If NO wasn't coming off two losses I would say this would be one of those games Minn wins, just to fuck with Saints seeding & Saints bettors.
 
inZane said:
Check the weather for Green Bay on Sunday.

Looks like temps in the low 30's with a 30-40% chance of snow around game time that could affect the total.
Click to expand...

id like to see it get bet down before jumping on over. I don’t tend to be to worried about snow and long as temps not frigid not much concern. If it rain and not snow that would bother me. I tend to think rain (especially cold rain) much tougher to catch the ball than in snow, I think snow often leads to some big plays as defenders slip and fall! Wind/rain/and temps below 20 when I worry. Outside those things I often think we get value if total bet down!! Thanks for the heads up!!
 
Speaking of Bevell...he and several coaches might miss the game due to positive tests/contact tracing.
 
Zeke said:
Some good teaser teams I was looking at, NO, Buff, LAR, Tenn. If NO wasn't coming off two losses I would say this would be one of those games Minn wins, just to fuck with Saints seeding & Saints bettors.
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im not sure if I’m crazy or not but I keep thinking packers be better off not playing all their games at home. Obviously you gotta want the bye, one less game obviously gives you a much greater chance to make it. I just feel like their style and softness would play much better in the dome or la than the frozen tundra. Again you gotta get that bye but without fans I think they would fare better in domes or good weather!!
 
A much weaker Indy Colts offense led by Brian Hoyer had good success (3 TD passes) against Pit’s defense last year at Heinz Field. Love the coaching edge here and I know there is recency bias galore with this line but I just don’t see Pittsburgh winning, even at home.
 
Seahawks/Rams over 47. No Akers and Rams off a bad loss. Kupp hasn't been a huge part of the offense lately (5 targets each of the last 2 games) and just 1 td last 10 games. I think he's featured vs this Hawks secondary. Rams shut Metcalf down last time they faced off and I don't think it happens again. Of course Donald is capable of taking over the whole game but I think this one's a higher scoring affair. And I think the Hawks take it
 
Lexington 125 said:
Seahawks/Rams over 47. No Akers and Rams off a bad loss. Kupp hasn't been a huge part of the offense lately (5 targets each of the last 2 games) and just 1 td last 10 games. I think he's featured vs this Hawks secondary. Rams shut Metcalf down last time they faced off and I don't think it happens again. Of course Donald is capable of taking over the whole game but I think this one's a higher scoring affair. And I think the Hawks take it
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what happened to Akers? Damn I see high ankle sprain, those can last awhile can’t they? That hurts them as I thought Akers was finally emerging.

man I see this so differently. I think ramsey as good a corner you can have for dealing with DK, I wouldn’t expect him to have a real good game. He might do better than 1st meeting but no way do I think he goes off. This rams d is tough, they top 3 in pretty much every meaningful defensive stat across the board against the pass and run! I suppose red zone td% they are only 11th but that the only one I see them not being top 5!

Seattle d has really been improving and no slouches themselves, since the last game vs rams they havnt allowed more than 21, and that was following week vs zona, last 4 weeks they havnt allowed anyone to score more than 17. Granted they have faced some real bad offenses this past month so guess there a argument the improvement is somewhat circumstance? I honestly didn’t realize this till just now, Certainly something to think about.

I could probably be convinced rams side is better than total and I hate playing both!
 
What year did Mcvay take over rams coaching gig, ‘17? Rams have won 5 of 7 since then and 5 of 6 since losing 1st meeting his career. The one loss was a 1 point Seattle win. Safe to say he has owned Carroll in the same way shanny has owned them??
 
Rams can win division if they beat seattle this week next week they play arizona they beat them san fran will beat seattle at home in arizona
 
detroit187 said:
Play action rollout left, then right. Repeat. What a bore. I get what McVay is doing cuz Goff stinks but they are one of the most boring decent offenses I’ve ever seen.
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It really is crazy given the talent. Woods continues to be one of the most underrated wrs in the game (bills bias). Kupp can play. Goff needs the cleanest pocket or he plays like trash.
 
2daBank said:
what happened to Akers? Damn I see high ankle sprain, those can last awhile can’t they? That hurts them as I thought Akers was finally emerging.

man I see this so differently. I think ramsey as good a corner you can have for dealing with DK, I wouldn’t expect him to have a real good game. He might do better than 1st meeting but no way do I think he goes off. This rams d is tough, they top 3 in pretty much every meaningful defensive stat across the board against the pass and run! I suppose red zone td% they are only 11th but that the only one I see them not being top 5!

Seattle d has really been improving and no slouches themselves, since the last game vs rams they havnt allowed more than 21, and that was following week vs zona, last 4 weeks they havnt allowed anyone to score more than 17. Granted they have faced some real bad offenses this past month so guess there a argument the improvement is somewhat circumstance? I honestly didn’t realize this till just now, Certainly something to think about.

I could probably be convinced rams side is better than total and I hate playing both!
Click to expand...

I said earlier in the season Seattle would shore up the D, I just see this as a spot play where both teams will score.
 
detroit187 said:
Play action rollout left, then right. Repeat. What a bore. I get what McVay is doing cuz Goff stinks but they are one of the most boring decent offenses I’ve ever seen.
Click to expand...

his offense is really bout what 6-7 plays they just run with a whole bunch of different window dressing? Many a good coach has preferred top notch execution of a few plays compared to running a whole bunch of different shit to see what sticks. Plus his route combos/passing scheme is really good. I’m not sure his offense would be a whole lot different with another qb but Goff certainly has limitations, he does throw a good ball when things going well and he clean in the pocket (wherever they set it up). It pretty tough to stop when they have a running back with good vision who presses the hole. Sucks Akers hurt cause he was really coming on, we see how Henderson or brown do after not getting many touches of late. They should be fresh!!
 
I already played the over for a little. You think that has any effect? Has bevell been calling plays?
 
Total dropped a point. Dont see why this announcement would affect the total but obviously it did
 
I'm seeing the Bucs and Raiders games are on NFL network. But the AZ game is on Amazon Prime video? Is that free and I assume on their web site?
 
Just a heads up...

Road dogs in revenge spots are a perfect 9-0 ATS (6-3 SU) this season.

Niners in this spot tonight.
 
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