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Week 15 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Dec 14 Thu 2023

07:15 PM
301Los Angeles Chargers+3
-108		O 33½
-110
302Las Vegas Raiders+1 Markets-3
-112		U 33½
-110
Dec 16 Sat 2023

12:00 PM
303Minnesota Vikings+4
-113		O 39
-110
304Cincinnati Bengals+1 Markets-4
-107		U 39
-110
03:30 PM
305Pittsburgh Steelers+2½
-102		O 42
-110
306Indianapolis Colts+1 Markets-2½
-118		U 42
-110
07:15 PM
311Denver Broncos+3½
-107		O 46½
-110
312Detroit Lions+1 Markets-3½
-113		U 46½
-110
Dec 17 Sun 2023

12:00 PM
307Atlanta Falcons-3
-105		O 35
-110
308Carolina Panthers+1 Markets+3
-115		U 35
-110
12:00 PM
309Chicago Bears+3
-104		O 38
-110
310Cleveland Browns+1 Markets-3
-116		U 38
-110
12:00 PM
313Tampa Bay Buccaneers+3½
-110		O 43
-110
314Green Bay Packers+1 Markets-3½
-110		U 43
-110
12:00 PM
315Houston Texans+2
-110		O 37½
-110
316Tennessee Titans+1 Markets-2
-110		U 37½
-110
12:00 PM
317New York Giants+6
-110		O 36½
-110
318New Orleans Saints+1 Markets-6
-110		U 36½
-110
12:00 PM
331Kansas City Chiefs-10
-107		O 37½
-110
332New England Patriots+1 Markets+10
-113		U 37½
-110
03:05 PM
321San Francisco 49ers-13½
-115		O 47
-110
322Arizona Cardinals+1 Markets+13½
-105		U 47
-110
03:05 PM
323Washington Commanders+7
-114		O 49
-110
324Los Angeles Rams+1 Markets-7
-106		U 49
-110
07:20 PM
329Baltimore Ravens-3½
-104		O 44
-110
330Jacksonville Jaguars+1 Markets+3½
-116		U 44
-110
 
Seeing a low-scoring game between Bears with their improved D and Browns with their strong home D.

Total in Tennessee feels low even with Stroud banged up. Tit offense is a lot more productive at home, both pass defenses are very vulnerable

The way to beat Green Bay is on the ground.
Bucs run game is so bad that it passes to White as a substitute for an actual ground game. Packers win this.

If Jax D continues sucking then that game should be a blowout in favor of Baltimore. Can’t imagine Ravens D suffering a second week in a row, and Trevor struggles against great defenses (Chiefs, 49ers).
 
I don’t think Russell is one to take advantage of Detroit‘s problems in the secondary. He‘s not exactly one to throw for a lot of yards. He‘s meh and his receivers are more meh.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I don’t think Russell is one to take advantage of Detroit‘s problems in the secondary. He‘s not exactly one to throw for a lot of yards. He‘s meh and his receivers are more meh.
Click to expand...
Jeudy and Sutton have far exceeded my expectations
 
Detroit situationally should be a GREAT play.

Off a bad loss...

Night game at home...

Expect this atmosphere to be one of the loudest in the NFL all season...

Russ having a nice year, but he isn't as adept to hurt the Lions defense like others...

We'll see. Checking injuries etc,

Lions need to RUN the ball, and keep running.
 
B.A.R. said:
Detroit situationally should be a GREAT play.

Off a bad loss...

Night game at home...

Expect this atmosphere to be one of the loudest in the NFL all season...

Russ having a nice year, but he isn't as adept to hurt the Lions defense like others...

We'll see. Checking injuries etc,

Lions need to RUN the ball, and keep running.
Click to expand...
Idn...Detroit has been bad vs inept offenses in this post Tampa stretch ...chargers. and saints points a and b

Green bay offense still isn't good imo. They went from dominated love to get dominated ...did they change game plans ?

I actually been thinking Detroit one of my stronger sides this week ....should be able to pound the rock on offense vs a bad run d....but if you can't hold leads against the chargers or saints not sure they can cover this big inflated number

Perhaps a lions first half
 
EL CAPO said:
Idn...Detroit has been bad vs inept offenses in this post Tampa stretch ...chargers. and saints points a and b

Green bay offense still isn't good imo. They went from dominated love to get dominated ...did they change game plans ?

I actually been thinking Detroit one of my stronger sides this week ....should be able to pound the rock on offense vs a bad run d....but if you can't hold leads against the chargers or saints not sure they can cover this big inflated number

Perhaps a lions first half
Click to expand...

Oh, I understand any and all concern with the defense right now. The Saints game really scared myself as a fan. defensively...

Now, the Chargers game was that first game that really showed that these guys had feasted on bad teams quite a bit. That game was as simple as they had no one for Keenan Allen and things went downhill from there. That happens with a bad matchup, and a helluva QB. Yes, looking at the Chargers season in full makes hat result seem abnormal, but in the context of one game -- it made sense, at least to myself as the game wore on.

As average as the defense has looked lately, I still have major offense concerns..

First and foremost -- the OL injuries have really hurt Goff. He has had so much less time (that GB game, he had ZERO time).

I have complained about the usage of the RB's and stand by it. The last few games, Gibbs is playing great and has a combined 18-19 carries. Monty has been excellent as well, but he has 30 combined carries (B4 you take into account the end the NOLA game). Neither game has gotten out of control. Use these RB's to their max. We should be seeing at least 30-35 carries combined...

THEN -- Goff can excel in PA. The running game will help lessen the pressure.

Lastly, the no matter pressure or playcalling, Goff needs to make better throws and decisions.
 
B.A.R. said:
Oh, I understand any and all concern with the defense right now. The Saints game really scared myself as a fan. defensively...

Now, the Chargers game was that first game that really showed that these guys had feasted on bad teams quite a bit. That game was as simple as they had no one for Keenan Allen and things went downhill from there. That happens with a bad matchup, and a helluva QB. Yes, looking at the Chargers season in full makes hat result seem abnormal, but in the context of one game -- it made sense, at least to myself as the game wore on.

As average as the defense has looked lately, I still have major offense concerns..

First and foremost -- the OL injuries have really hurt Goff. He has had so much less time (that GB game, he had ZERO time).

I have complained about the usage of the RB's and stand by it. The last few games, Gibbs is playing great and has a combined 18-19 carries. Monty has been excellent as well, but he has 30 combined carries (B4 you take into account the end the NOLA game). Neither game has gotten out of control. Use these RB's to their max. We should be seeing at least 30-35 carries combined...

THEN -- Goff can excel in PA. The running game will help lessen the pressure.

Lastly, the no matter pressure or playcalling, Goff needs to make better throws and decisions.
Click to expand...
Goff is horrible outside.

I'd like to see some more stretch plays and outside zone runs.....dominant oline but all those power plays teams have figured out how to stack the box

Looking back ...the Seattle game has been a big foretell that this d was overrated....and they couldn't run on Seattle. Look at what the niners just did
 
EL CAPO said:
Goff is horrible outside.

I'd like to see some more stretch plays and outside zone runs.....dominant oline but all those power plays teams have figured out how to stack the box

Looking back ...the Seattle game has been a big foretell that this d was overrated....and they couldn't run on Seattle. Look at what the niners just did
Click to expand...
Running QB's kill Detroit.

Fields
Lamar
Geno, to an extent.
Love scrambles solid enough.
 
B.A.R. said:
Detroit situationally should be a GREAT play.

Off a bad loss...

Night game at home...

Expect this atmosphere to be one of the loudest in the NFL all season...

Russ having a nice year, but he isn't as adept to hurt the Lions defense like others...

We'll see. Checking injuries etc,

Lions need to RUN the ball, and keep running.
Click to expand...
I expected this line to be closer to Detroit -6.
 
B.A.R. said:
Bovada had 5.5 at 1am eastern when I did the Pick Club lines.
Click to expand...
They are crazy with their line movement. Just looking at that game it's been up and down a bunch which seems rare early in the week for NFL, all seemingly between 4-5.5. Wonder if that's normal for them.
 
Think Tennessee is great play [and i have future for Houston playoffs] teams catching up to Stroud and defense not good. To give up 30 to jets 2h and Jacksonville did whatever they wanted week b4. Think Tennessee builds off that Miami game. They basically held Miami offense to 2 fg on road. Gifted Miami 3 td. Think Tennessee rolls fading Houston here.
 
Tyreek didn’t practice today. It‘s killing my hopes for fantasy playoffs but seeing how bad the Fins offense looked without him makes for a good betting opportunity

Granted i think he also didn’t practice last Wednesday either, so the next couple days could be more telling
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Tyreek didn’t practice today. It‘s killing my hopes for fantasy playoffs but seeing how bad the Fins offense looked without him makes for a good betting opportunity

Granted i think he also didn’t practice last Wednesday either, so the next couple days could be more telling
Click to expand...
I'm thinking playing on Monday made today an automatic non-practice day for their key guys. Mostert and Achane didn't practice either.

Meanwhile, last time we saw TJ Watt he was kicked in the mouth on the first play of the game. He went back in a couple of plays later after being checked by Steeler doctor, only to then go into the blue tent later to be checked for a concussion. He came out taking smelling salts and wearing a dark tint visor and played the rest of the game.

Then on Friday he was put in concussion protocol. Today he's already cleared it. Lord they do have some miracle healers in Pittsburgh......they get concussed and only miss a handful of plays. Nothing shady about that.
 
Bills/Cowboys gonna be epic.

Lost in the shuffle of the KC game was the fact that the D line was owning. They lose Epenesa and still generate pressure throughout. Oliver is playing his best football ever, Dodson making plays. Rasul move looks better and better each week, Hyde out gonna need a good game from Benford (who made a huge play vs KC). Definitely have to get to Dak early and often to disrupt the quick plays. If not it'll be curtains but Buffalo has quietly done a good job stopping the run lately. Could be a huge key to the game here. Another is the status of Taron Johnson need him to be a go.

Bills offense coming around at the right time... Allen continues to work magic but Cook is also coming into his own. New OC def getting the most out of rbs coming out of the backfield, love his willingness to go to anybody on a big down instead of just to Diggs everytime- all while still getting Diggs his targets. Kincaid status something to watch because he has to be accounted for. If he goes I will likely be on Diggs catches over, td scored, maybe 2td. He's gonna put up #s this week. O-line really had some highs and lows last week but are going to have to plan for Parsons. Game wrecker but I think they will counter with some quick passes of their own and runs. Really just can't have constant pressure on Allen or we might get the 3 turnover game and glazed over eyes while he sits on the sidelines. I don't think that's what happens here Bills getting hot at the right time.

Leaning on Bills-2 for the game I just think Allen gets them there once again.

Bills o12.5-130 1sth a bit juicy but I like.

Total high but I couldn't endorse anything under related here. The way Dallas is capable of scoring the Bills wont take their foot off even with a lead. Will get into props once lines are released been doing well focusing on those. If Kincaid is a go and Taron is out I would be very inclined to make total over wagers on both teams. I'll be back with more
 
Man, I’ve played a lot of dog shit games before, but if anyone can make an inkling of a logical argument with regards to a total or side play for tonight‘s game, I would certainly like to listen to it, to make my Thursday night a little more interesting.
 
Considering how bad Fins O looked vs Titans. Game was only close bc Tit turnovers kept giving Miami free touchdowns…

Upgrade at QB over Boyle
 
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