Week 12 Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

Nov 23 Thu 2023

11:30 AM
105	Green Bay Packers	+7½ -110	+280	O 46 -110
106	Detroit Lions+1 Markets	-7½ -110	-350	U 46 -110

03:30 PM
107	Washington Commanders	+11 -115	+430	O 48 -107
108	Dallas Cowboys+1 Markets	-11 -105	-550	U 48 -113

07:20 PM
109	San Francisco 49ers	-7 -110	-305	O 42½ -110
110	Seattle Seahawks+1 Markets	+7 -110	+255	U 42½ -110

Nov 24 Fri 2023

02:00 PM
113	Miami Dolphins	-7½ -105	-350	O 41 -110
114	New York Jets+1 Markets	+7½ -115	+280	U 41 -110

Nov 26 Sun 2023

12:00 PM
251	Jacksonville Jaguars	pk -110		O 47 -110
252	Houston Texans+1 Markets	pk -110		U 47 -110

12:00 PM
253	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+2½ -110	+112	O 42½ -110
254	Indianapolis Colts+1 Markets	-2½ -110	-132	U 42½ -110

12:00 PM
255	New England Patriots	-3½ -107	-180	O 33½ -108
256	New York Giants+1 Markets	+3½ -113	+160	U 33½ -112

12:00 PM
257	Carolina Panthers	+4 -110	+165	O 37 -105
258	Tennessee Titans+1 Markets	-4 -110	-190	U 37 -115

12:00 PM
259	Pittsburgh Steelers	-1 -110	-115	O 34 -115
260	Cincinnati Bengals+1 Markets	+1 -110	-105	U 34 -105

12:00 PM
261	New Orleans Saints	pk -113		O 41 -110
262	Atlanta Falcons+1 Markets	pk -107		U 41 -110

03:05 PM
263	Los Angeles Rams	-1 -110	-115	O 46 -110
264	Arizona Cardinals+1 Markets	+1 -110	-105	U 46 -110

03:25 PM
267	Buffalo Bills	+3½ -113	+150	O 47½ -110
268	Philadelphia Eagles+1 Markets	-3½ -107	-170	U 47½ -110

03:25 PM
269	Kansas City Chiefs	-9 -110	-450	O 43½ -110
270	Las Vegas Raiders+1 Markets	+9 -110	+360	U 43½ -110

07:20 PM
271	Baltimore Ravens	-4 -108	-195	O 46½ -110
272	Los Angeles Chargers+1 Markets	+4 -112	+170	U 46½ -110

 

[VirginiaCavs]

That Jax -1 (predictably) got bet down fast

 

[DOUBLEUP4LIFE]

Bills might be catching the Eagles In a nice spot after playing the SB rematch, short week as well ..
Buffalo's season appears to be on the line before heading into the bye ..
Have to imagine Joe bettor will chase with Philly ML and ats ...

 

[C-MAN]

How in the world are the Steelers favored on the road at Cincinnati? They pretty much proved this weekend it doesn’t matter who plays QB for the other team.

 

[Inspekdah]

Hopefully Geno is a go and we get 9ers around 6.5 or less. Look ahead was 4.5. Also Zach C isn't an elite NFL back and is a big downgrade from KW.

Will look back and see what type of performance we can expect on 3 days rest from the 9ers.

 

[aplous]

Was hoping Lions would lose to get the flat 7. I’ll be on them all ways.

Washington is a play on as a dog and fade as chalk. I think they’ll keep it close for awhile.

 

[Inspekdah]

How is Purdy not the MVP favorite with this completion % and QBR?

Feel like there's value at 20-1 if he can go on the road and out-duel Hurts. He'd then leap him, no?

 

[Inspekdah]

Was hoping Lions would lose to get the flat 7. I’ll be on them all ways.

Washington is a play on as a dog and fade as chalk. I think they’ll keep it close for awhile.

Lions/9ers looks like a Thankgiving gift.

Never bet the 9ers closing line. They've been sniped by 0.5 against Rams and now Bucs. I buy them to -150ish every game and it's 7-3.

 

[B.A.R.]

I can't see any upsets on Thanksgiving.

 

[B.A.R.]

Wilson finally hits the bench.

Timmy Boyle time.

 

[pb278817]

Wilson finally hits the bench.

Timmy Boyle time.

 

[Inspekdah]

Jets aren't going to win another game... and will get a nice pick that they can parlay into something this offseason.

 

[Inspekdah]

I can't see any upsets on Thanksgiving.

Feel like there has to be one but not sure where it comes from - hopefully, Lions aren't sleeping early.

 

[KJ]

Feel like there has to be one but not sure where it comes from - hopefully, Lions aren't sleeping early.

Lions are the one I'd be least concerned about after yesterday, situationally the best favorite on the board

 

[inZane]

I'm skeptical of the Donkey's laying 2* against the Brownies and gonna buy them up to +3.

Russell has only covered once as a favorite at home in Denver...

 

[inZane]

I can't see any upsets on Thanksgiving.

Maybe not upsets, but I'm gonna throw a couple on the Sea Pigs at +7 -123.

 

[DOUBLEUP4LIFE]

I can't see any upsets on Thanksgiving.

Agree , but will Joe money chalk parlay bettor cash a big ticket that day ?

Which one of the 3 do you think is most likely to lose out right ?

 

[Brewers888]

Jets aren't going to win another game... and will get a nice pick that they can parlay into something this offseason.

Saleh, Hackett, and Douglas better all be fired after the season. The new coach can decide on Aaron but if its up to me he can fuck off as well.

 

[Inspekdah]

Saleh, Hackett, and Douglas better all be fired after the season. The new coach can decide on Aaron but if its up to me he can fuck off as well.

I’d be shocked if Saleh is let go.

 

[BenchCoach]

Anyone know how bad this weather is in KC?

 

[Brewers888]

I’d be shocked if Saleh is let go.

He's an absolute moron and the team has quit on him. He should never have been hired in the first place but he's had all the time to show just how incompetent he is.

 

[Capaholic]

Anyone know how bad this weather is in KC?

Chilly. Mild wind. No rain during game. Field drains very very well.

 

[EL CAPO]

That Jax -1 (predictably) got bet down fast

your a jags fan ? who do u like.......i say this is value on jax....i'm seeing a huge shift in the line from the game 1 line - why - because the texans are so improved or jax is so much worse.......well the jags have played well so the market has upgraded the texans considerably. Overvalued now imo. Just way i see it is they beat overrated bengals in a sandwich spot ; below avg bucs and cards team, and lost to the panthers.......just a couple games removed from cj throwin for like 150 yards and losing to worst team in football.......jax has the much better defense in this one, lots of fluky stuff happened game 1, spot revenge advantage jax.

 

[EL CAPO]

How in the world are the Steelers favored on the road at Cincinnati? They pretty much proved this weekend it doesn’t matter who plays QB for the other team.

browns defense is not the bengals defense. bengals defense is downright not good. cincy may be a dead team with this qb - he is so bad the bengals wouldn't play him to start the year when burrow was immobile and clearly injured they risked re-injury to avoid losses they had so little faith

 

[EL CAPO]

Was hoping Lions would lose to get the flat 7. I’ll be on them all ways.

Washington is a play on as a dog and fade as chalk. I think they’ll keep it close for awhile.

for washington it all comes down to protection for howell who can sling it when given time and move the chains.......figuring this out seems to be tough - they protect beautifully against the eagles pass rush but struggle mightily against a giants defense........keep in mind reids system destroyed martingdale at kansas city, so why the skins struggled with the giants this year so much has me scratching my head. Giants d isn't that good and skins o scores on solid teams

 

[B.A.R.]

Lions are the one I'd be least concerned about after yesterday, situationally the best favorite on the board

Exactly

 

[B.A.R.]

Maybe not upsets, but I'm gonna throw a couple on the Sea Pigs at +7 -123.

That's the game I see being the tightest.

 

[B.A.R.]

Agree , but will Joe money chalk parlay bettor cash a big ticket that day ?

Which one of the 3 do you think is most likely to lose out right ?

SF

 

[VirginiaCavs]

your a jags fan ? who do u like.......i say this is value on jax....i'm seeing a huge shift in the line from the game 1 line - why - because the texans are so improved or jax is so much worse.......well the jags have played well so the market has upgraded the texans considerably. Overvalued now imo. Just way i see it is they beat overrated bengals in a sandwich spot ; below avg bucs and cards team, and lost to the panthers.......just a couple games removed from cj throwin for like 150 yards and losing to worst team in football.......jax has the much better defense in this one, lots of fluky stuff happened game 1, spot revenge advantage jax.

I just can't figure the Texans out...they seem so wildly inconsistent on both sides of the ball. I agree, though, that Game 1 was pretty flukey...although Jags have been committing frustrating turnovers in the opposing red zone since last season...it does mean something though that Jax, despite losing by 20, actually outgained Houston 404-366. Gotta think Jax puts up more than 17 this time around...being on the road won't be a problem: Jax on road: win vs. Colts, win vs. Saints, win vs. Steelers -- all potential playoff teams. Not sure how trustworthy Jaguars pass defense is, though, when you look at how second-half Saints, Purdy, and especially Stroud himself have moved the ball against them. People here have been saying Jax defense is definitely better, both teams are actually neck-and-neck in total defense, with again especially Houston being bizarre and hard to predict, playing well vs Lamar but struggling against Ridder, fore xample. This is too close for me to call, I'm staying away.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

browns defense is not the bengals defense. bengals defense is downright not good. cincy may be a dead team with this qb - he is so bad the bengals wouldn't play him to start the year when burrow was immobile and clearly injured they risked re-injury to avoid losses they had so little faith

Or they just have so much faith in Burrow that they'll play him even when he can barely move. Browning hasn't looked so bad so far despite facing Baltimore.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Patriots are favored on the road? Can they even score more than three points?

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Titans play so much better at home than on the road...plus good matchup vs Panthers team that won't exploit their secondary and that offensively they can rely on the run against.

Agree about Lions. Thinking Lions ML & Titans ML make for good parlay partners.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Titans play so much better at home than on the road...plus good matchup vs Panthers team that won't exploit their secondary and that offensively they can rely on the run against.

Agree about Lions. Thinking Lions ML & Titans ML make for good parlay partners.

Dolphins at no-offense Jets and Chiefs off a loss (at Raiders) also interesting ML partners I think.

Jets have been pesky at home, though. I guess I'm such a fan of big secondaries, though, that I perpetually get disappointed by this team.

Raiders have had a way of playing the Chiefs tough, I could see this being a low-scoring game where the running backs thrive more than the quarterbacks

 

[B.A.R.]

Good times...


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[EL CAPO]

Titans play so much better at home than on the road...plus good matchup vs Panthers team that won't exploit their secondary and that offensively they can rely on the run against.

Agree about Lions. Thinking Lions ML & Titans ML make for good parlay partners.

this is a classic vrabel bounceback after a huge loss spot......except last week sort of was too, this team is getting worse as the season progresses, very unvrabel like.,,its not a classic mediocre titans team but a poor one....unable to score in mop up time last 2 weeks is scary...........even tho titans have great matchup in the run game i think the secondary difference may be larger in favor of panthers - panthers feel like a grittier tougher team on defense. surprisngly, i don't know wth happened to the titans...their core came back from last year. titans o sucks but their d is their biggeest problem imo

tough game imo - initial thought is titans but more i look into it is take dog in matchup of 2 bad teams over 3

 

[EL CAPO]

Patriots are favored on the road? Can they even score more than three points?

also bellichek vs devito - i love the under here........and kinda like pats. giants floor is lower then the patriots floor imo - just atrocious games. pats have the run game advantage imo in a game with little throwing

other thoughts
--jets feel dead.......dolphins should cover this as long as they aren't sloppy and careless like vs raiders and even they prbly cover vs the jets o. jets offense keeps regressing massively since early in year,,,,,,,they felt somewhat capable vs kc, vs denver......what the hell happened ?

--the guy who just posted shon greene plays for iowa............that monikar now needs to be JOSH DOBBS for vikings..........i think the kid is incredible, no idea why he keeps getting cut, just none. bears played vikes tough in chicago, but i think josh dobbs brings this one home. JOSH DOBBS is a walking cash cow right now in this league

 

[VirginiaCavs]

this is a classic vrabel bounceback after a huge loss spot......except last week sort of was too, this team is getting worse as the season progresses, very unvrabel like.,,its not a classic mediocre titans team but a poor one....unable to score in mop up time last 2 weeks is scary...........even tho titans have great matchup in the run game i think the secondary difference may be larger in favor of panthers - panthers feel like a grittier tougher team on defense. surprisngly, i don't know wth happened to the titans...their core came back from last year. titans o sucks but their d is their biggeest problem imo

tough game imo - initial thought is titans but more i look into it is take dog in matchup of 2 bad teams over 3

Yeah the Titans front seven baffles me…Landry Simmons Autry…should be a solid group. No idea why but they’re definitely underperforming.

 

[Brewers888]

also bellichek vs devito - i love the under here........and kinda like pats. giants floor is lower then the patriots floor imo - just atrocious games. pats have the run game advantage imo in a game with little throwing

other thoughts
--jets feel dead.......dolphins should cover this as long as they aren't sloppy and careless like vs raiders and even they prbly cover vs the jets o. jets offense keeps regressing massively since early in year,,,,,,,they felt somewhat capable vs kc, vs denver......what the hell happened ?

--the guy who just posted shon greene plays for iowa............that monikar now needs to be JOSH DOBBS for vikings..........i think the kid is incredible, no idea why he keeps getting cut, just none. bears played vikes tough in chicago, but i think josh dobbs brings this one home. JOSH DOBBS is a walking cash cow right now in this league

Pats vs Giants has an Iowa game feel to it. Something like 12-9 sounds about right.

Jets have quit on Saleh and I should have been smart enough to bet Buffalo last week knowing this. The "players" only meeting said it all and this is probably just the beginning. Even the few good players like Garrett and Sauce just don't care anymore. Garrett is fumbling and dropping passes almost as much as Lazard and Sauce has gone from rookie superstar to just missing tackles and showing no effort. All of this and the multiple roughing penalties each week show an undisciplined group that has mailed it in. The only thing that would give me any pause is the Dolphins are soft and might start crying when they play in less than ideal weather. Still they just need 13 or so to win and that should be easy enough.

 

[Brewers888]

Yeah the Titans front seven baffles me…Landry Simmons Autry…should be a solid group. No idea why but they’re definitely underperforming.

I think Vrabel is out at the end of the year. I think that team needs a change and so does he. There is a good chance he ends up in New England unless Joshy beats him out when Bill moves on after the season.

 

[EL CAPO]

Pats vs Giants has an Iowa game feel to it. Something like 12-9 sounds about right.

Jets have quit on Saleh and I should have been smart enough to bet Buffalo last week knowing this. The "players" only meeting said it all and this is probably just the beginning. Even the few good players like Garrett and Sauce just don't care anymore. Garrett is fumbling and dropping passes almost as much as Lazard and Sauce has gone from rookie superstar to just missing tackles and showing no effort. All of this and the multiple roughing penalties each week show an undisciplined group that has mailed it in. The only thing that would give me any pause is the Dolphins are soft and might start crying when they play in less than ideal weather. Still they just need 13 or so to win and that should be easy enough.

or a jets - pats game - both dcs just going man blitz vs horrible qbs.

miami will get more then 13 as i also think jets d little overrated - giving up 32 to buffalo is crazy

Someone tell me why i shouldn't bet eagles -3 vs bills ?......just noticed this line today. ....bills defense is not the chiefs defense. only reason i can think of is eagles almost lost to commanders twice and allen could put up points. But i think that oc change may have overvalued the bills. eagles o was starting to get some red zone kinks worked out. Huge line of scrimmage advantage for philly here, and run game advantage imo.

 

[Brewers888]

or a jets - pats game - both dcs just going man blitz vs horrible qbs.

miami will get more then 13 as i also think jets d little overrated - giving up 32 to buffalo is crazy

Someone tell me why i shouldn't bet eagles -3 vs bills ?......just noticed this line today. ....bills defense is not the chiefs defense. only reason i can think of is eagles almost lost to commanders twice and allen could put up points. But i think that oc change may have overvalued the bills. eagles o was starting to get some red zone kinks worked out. Huge line of scrimmage advantage for philly here, and run game advantage imo.

Jets defense isn't overrated they've just quit but I agree that the Bills are beig overvalued off that win. Eagles haven't really put it all together yet either so it will be interesting to see how that one plays out.

 

[Zeke]

Patriots are favored on the road? Can they even score more than three points?

6 perhaps. Fortunately there are other games to bet and I can find some more leaves in the yard to rake to avoid accidentally turning this shit fest on my tv.

 

[wiseplayer]

browns defense is not the bengals defense. bengals defense is downright not good. cincy may be a dead team with this qb - he is so bad the bengals wouldn't play him to start the year when burrow was immobile and clearly injured they risked re-injury to avoid losses they had so little faith

I don’t think Browning is that bad of a QB.

 

[EL CAPO]

I don’t think Browning is that bad of a QB.

why so ? i saw him at washington and he didn't do it for me at all - if he was capable of winning - why would the bengals put a disabled burrow from the waist down, literally a parapalegic burrow who was not even a league avg qb at that time given his circumstances

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I know I argued the opposite, but Browning fwiw was signed for the league minimum. That might not give that much direct weight to El Capo's notion that Browning isn't good, but it does lend further weight to the idea that the Bengals played Burrow hurt because they don't like Browning. But even if El Capo is right about the perception that Browning's coaches have of him, that doesn't mean that Browning can't prove them wrong and that he hasn't shown some modest form of promise

 

[VirginiaCavs]

The thing is, Steelers have the better defense, and the better run game. Cincy really needs a QB to go win games, and even if Browning turns out to be decent, I don't think decent will cut it. I don't think it's realistic to predict that he'll outperform Pickett. If he doesn't outperform Pickett, then Steelers will be stronger passing, running, and defending...so why like the Bengals at all at close to PK?

 

[VirginiaCavs]

No idea if this really means anything, but the Ravens have lost five of their last six games following a division win

 

[Lexington 125]

Feel like there has to be one but not sure where it comes from - hopefully, Lions aren't sleeping early.

I keep thinking the same & would love to play a dog ML but currently can't see it. Close to playing Commanders ats.

Wash played close every road game

Dallas has blown everyone out at home

Dallas off b2b 20+ point wins & Wash off a blowout loss to the Giants. Looks like the typical Buy low/sell high situation don't know if I can stomach it though

 

[Lexington 125]

Jets defense isn't overrated they've just quit but I agree that the Bills are beig overvalued off that win. Eagles haven't really put it all together yet either so it will be interesting to see how that one plays out.

Bills defensive secondary is obliterated. Hoping Rasul morphs into Revis & the D line dominates because it's the only way the Bills can stop them.

AJ Brown props probably smash this week.

 

[wiseplayer]

why so ? i saw him at washington and he didn't do it for me at all - if he was capable of winning - why would the bengals put a disabled burrow from the waist down, literally a parapalegic burrow who was not even a league avg qb at that time given his circumstances

I think with the talent his has around him and the coaching at Cincinnati he can be Trent Dilfer like. He doesn’t have to be great. Just has to know what he’s seeing and get the ball out. He has enough of a running not to have to pass 30+ a game.
When it comes to Burrow, he’s never coming out of a game unless he’s fully not capable. We’ll see the worth of the Bengals coaching staff with having more preparation with him.