Week 1 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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SEPTEMBER 9, 2021SPREADMONEYTOTAL
7:20 PM
DALLAS7.5
(-109)		+295O 50.5
(-109)
TAMPA BAY-7.5
(-109)		-390U 50.5
(-109)
SEPTEMBER 12, 2021SPREADMONEYTOTAL
12:00 PM
PITTSBURGH6.5
(-109)		+250O 50.5
(-109)
BUFFALO-6.5
(-109)		-300U 50.5
(-109)
12:00 PM
NY JETS4.5
(-109)		+190O 43.5
(-109)
CAROLINA-4.5
(-109)		-220U 43.5
(-109)
12:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE-2.5
(-119)		-150O 45
(-109)
HOUSTON2.5
(+101)		+130U 45
(-109)
12:00 PM
ARIZONA3
(-109)		+130O 51.5
(-109)
TENNESSEE-3
(-109)		-150U 51.5
(-109)
12:00 PM
LA CHARGERS-1
(-114)		-125O 44.5
(-109)
WASHINGTON1
(-104)		+105U 44.5
(-109)
12:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA3.5
(-109)		+170O 48
(-109)
ATLANTA-3.5
(-109)		-195U 48
(-109)
12:00 PM
SEATTLE0
(-114)		-135O 49
(-109)
INDIANAPOLIS0
(-104)		+115U 49
(-109)
12:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO-7.5
(-104)		-410O 45.5
(-109)
DETROIT7.5
(-114)		+310U 45.5
(-109)
12:00 PM
MINNESOTA-3.5
(-109)		-190O 48
(-109)
CINCINNATI3.5
(-109)		+165U 48
(-109)
3:25 PM
CLEVELAND6
(-104)		+230O 53
(-109)
KANSAS CITY-6
(-114)		-270U 53
(-109)
3:25 PM
MIAMI3
(-109)		+140O 44.5
(-109)
NEW ENGLAND-3
(-109)		-160U 44.5
(-109)
3:25 PM
DENVER-1.5
(-119)		-135O 42.5
(-109)
NY GIANTS1.5
(+101)		+115U 42.5
(-109)
3:25 PM
GREEN BAY-3
(-109)		-160O 50
(-109)
NEW ORLEANS3
(-109)		+140U 50
(-109)
7:20 PM
CHICAGO7
(-104)		+280O 45
(-109)
LA RAMS-7
(-114)		-355U 45
(-109)
SEPTEMBER 13, 2021SPREADMONEYTOTAL
7:15 PM
BALTIMORE-4.5
(-109)		-220O 51
(-109)
LAS VEGAS4.5
(-109)		+190U 51
(-109)
 
I'm in shitsville on gm 1.
I made total 54 and line 8.
ALways play the SB winner, but over a TD is too much when the oppo QB1 is coming back with something to prove.
Not sure Dallas D will be any different than last yr.
Over would be the play, but we've had some stinkers on that opening Thursday.
 
pressitup said:
I'm in shitsville on gm 1.
I made total 54 and line 8.
ALways play the SB winner, but over a TD is too much when the oppo QB1 is coming back with something to prove.
Not sure Dallas D will be any different than last yr.
Over would be the play, but we've had some stinkers on that opening Thursday.
Click to expand...

 
SB losing team historically has a poor ATS record in the opener. Love to see that hit 7 but could still see CLE staying within current number.
 
I don't see how the Cowboys will be ready to play their best next Thursday. They played no one in their four preseason games. No way they'll have any timing down at game speed. McCarthey is a dumbass.
 
Gandolf said:
I don't see how the Cowboys will be ready to play their best next Thursday. They played no one in their four preseason games. No way they'll have any timing down at game speed. McCarthey is a dumbass.
Click to expand...
I wasn't sure if your survivor pick was because of this or a reverse jinx ;)
 
B.A.R. said:
Yeah, they will be the #1 teaser option.

With that being said, I may tease them a few times 'open' with the following week...

Shall see....
Click to expand...
Ballsie, week one road fave teased down to still needing a W.
 
Gandolf said:
CAM cut
Click to expand...
Kind of had to do it. Once you’re making that move he’s not the backup. Best for all involved. Bellichick had enough respect for cam to let him go and find a situation he possibly could earn time, problem is so late in camp that’ll be hard to do barring an injury.
 
If im jerry and the cowboys I make that call. He’d be good insurance in case Dak goes down, certainly better than what they currently have. I’d think Miami would have interest as well and probably a couple other teams if he’s willing to be a backup
 
Just on the basis of vibes:

Dallas-Tampa - Bucs just announced they are 100% vaxed, we know Dallas isn't. Dak didn't play a minute of preseason and didn't practice for much of it, unlike the 44 year old Brady. Vibes all pointing Bucs way.

Philly-Atlanta - Falcons are the other 100% vaxed team, and Pitts has flashed. Philly working with a new coach, inexperience at QB. Hurts should get better as the season goes but Atlanta seems more ready at this point.

Pitt-Buffalo - Steelers just put Tuitt and an OL on short term IR. Starters looked good against Detroit, then they punted the finale. Bills have been rolling all preseason, only Diggs has sat it out. Edge Bills.

Minny-Cincy - Not real good vibes out of either team. Irv Smith injury a blow to Minny, no surprise they bubble wrapped Cook. Bengals have struggled getting Burrow ready. Slight edge Minny.

Niners-Lions - Niners have all kinds of good vibes: good health and an eye opening smack down of Vegas (mostly backups). Lions played Goff in game 1 and didn't get much out of it, have left him and Swift on the bench the rest of the time. Cohesive vibes lean Niners.
 
I don’t know what to think about Detroit. I’m not a Goff fan but he has a decent running game, a strong OL and he has won a lot of games, so I would not be shocked to see him have a decent season and keep the team competitive. The WR’s are trash, but honestly I was never high on the WR’s Goff had in LA either. The defense and coaching cannot possibly be any worse than last season. Schedule is tough but I expect this team to play hard. This game could be the week 1 shocker.
 
i love the bears/rams 1st half under. we have seen in the past it takes mcvey offense a bit to get rolling since he doesnt let anyone get reps in the preseason so i dont expect they just come out and light bears defense up in the 1st half,,, luckily nagy is starting the ginger water pistol who should get eaten by the rams defensive front!! i dont buy for a second bears offense scoring more than a td in the 1st half, 13-7 feels kinda like the high side imo..
 
pressitup said:
I'm in shitsville on gm 1.
I made total 54 and line 8.
ALways play the SB winner, but over a TD is too much when the oppo QB1 is coming back with something to prove.
Not sure Dallas D will be any different than last yr.
Over would be the play, but we've had some stinkers on that opening Thursday.
Click to expand...

i dont buy that Dak is healthy, that shoulder injury the kind of thing that lingers with pitchers.. no zach martin and zeke scared to run ball without him blocking! cooper often no shows on the road and i could def see him checking out against bucs corners. i dunno if i play it but i think ya lay the points or pass.
 
KJ said:
Haven't paid much attention into the build up, had no clue Packers and Saints are playing in Jacksonville
Click to expand...

yep, sounds as if saints might be displaced for a few their home games. If I recall correctly after this one they not scheduled for another home game till week 4 vs nyg I believe, still up in the air where that one gets played. I was hoping saints would thrive without noodle arm brees but unfortunately I think lot of things point to them falling off a bit. Lost lot of depth so if they don’t stay healthy it be a problem, who knows when thomas gets on the field? Now they missing out on at least one and probably more home field advantage games. I think atl and panthers are on the rise so division much tougher (there still that Brady guy in tampa and now the team is familiar with each other! Scary thought!). So while I think Winston capable of making this offense way more entertaining as he opens up the playbook with down field throws im worried bout all the other factors.
 
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2daBank said:
yep, sounds as if saints might be displaced for a few their home games. If I recall correctly after this one they not scheduled for another home game till week 4 vs nyg I believe, still up in the air where that one gets played. I was hoping saints would thrive without noodle arm brees but unfortunately I think lot of things point to them falling off a bit. Lost lot of depth so if they don’t stay healthy it be a problem, who knows when thomas gets on the field? Now they missing out on at least one and probably more home field advantage games. I think atl and panthers are on the rise so division much tougher (there still that Brady guy in tampa and now the team is familiar with Wes he other! Scary thought!). So while I think Winston capable of making this offense way more entertaining as he opens up the playbook with down field throws im worried bout all the other factors.
Click to expand...
Very high on Carolina this season before Ida...like them to compete with TB for the South and NO/ATL battling to stay out of the cellar
 
KJ said:
Very high on Carolina this season before Ida...like them to compete with TB for the South and NO/ATL battling to stay out of the cellar
Click to expand...

I’m not sure which team between panthers and falcons will rise up and compete for division, but I do think one of them will!! Lol. All a sudden that division is much much stronger than it been the last few years! Think it prob comes down to how Darnold plays now that he far away from that clown Gase, the killer of young qbs!
 
KJ said:
Very high on Carolina this season before Ida...like them to compete with TB for the South and NO/ATL battling to stay out of the cellar
Click to expand...
Would be inclined to agree with Rhule and especially Joe Brady, but are we really getting on the Darnold bandwagon?

Of QBs with 200+ pass attempts last year, Darnold was almost last in On Target Pass Pct. Was only ahead of Carson Wentz, Dwayne Haskins & Drew Lock. Not exactly HOF company!

And I know ... Adam Gase ... but isn’t accuracy at least mostly inherent to the QB?
 
Tin&Lint said:
Would be inclined to agree with Rhule and especially Joe Brady, but are we really getting on the Darnold bandwagon?

Of QBs with 200+ pass attempts last year, Darnold was almost last in On Target Pass Pct. Was only ahead of Carson Wentz, Dwayne Haskins & Drew Lock. Not exactly HOF company!

And I know ... Adam Gase ... but isn’t accuracy at least mostly inherent to the QB?
Click to expand...
A. I don't think he has to be great, just sufficient. This will be a run/short pass offense and defense. Like them both

B. When it comes to Darnold in New York, hoping a change of scenery does the trick. I *think* he's an accurate passer. Can throw blame all over, was it Gase, was it NYC, was it the graveyard for QBs, was it Darnold? Reality is I have no clue if he's an NFL QB but I don't for one instance believe any of us has been given a proper litmus test yet. Figure the situation in Carolina is ideal if all he needs is confidence that Woody's franchise was never built to give a young guy.
 
I love what going on with the chargers as much as anyone but call me crazy, I think the Washington FT are a rock solid bet in week 1. It be even better if we could get a little plus money on them but I dunno if that happen?

I totally buy all the chargers hype for the season but think this a tough ask. New coach and system for the sophomore sensation qb who’s rookie coach comes from the Mcvey school of not playing any starters in preseason, if that what they think is best fine but I can’t believe teams that don’t get their starters any preseason reps can possibly be prepared to come out the gates with a good rhythm! I’m not sure you can get a tougher draw in week 1 for a team who didn’t play their starters any, cross country early start up against a veteran coach with the best defensive line in the league!! I’ll say this much, if the chargers do come in and put it on WFT out the gates then look out rest of afc!

Maybe 1st half be a smart way to go about it? That would eliminate the chance to get beat by some Herbert late game heroics! Think I just decided I will be on the football team 1st half!
 
Marsski said:
Took Dolphins ML. I'll take Flores vs rookie QB all day, every day. Especially considering the NE ties.
Click to expand...

I know he played some games last year but isn’t Tua still basically a rookie? With last year offseason and preseason being totally useless im not sure last year rookies are way ahead of this years crop? Obviously the fact he played some nfl games helps but I still look at Tua as basically a rookie and hoody is the master of giving young qb’s problems, combine that with fish oline looking to be their must suspect unit and I’m just not sure Mac n cheese will have more problems than Tua in this one. To me this one the harder nfl games to pick this week so certainly not saying I disagree with your play.
 
I love Harbaugh for cashing us one preseason ticket after another for years but ya gotta wonder if this insane rash of injuries is a byproduct? I don’t think it is cause it never happened before but man ravens having awful luck!! This team been ravaged at multiple spots before 1 damn play! All their rbs shot, wrs banged up, now peters out for the year! I tend to believe I could run for 1k yards in this offense but it wouldn’t be promising for the season, I dunno bout you guys but I been waiting by my phone for a call from a Balty area code!!! Lol
 
So I really thought it was gonna be niners or even Rams that was the big fav who got a scare! Now that it was tampa are we safe to ml those other 2 or is one gonna go down??
 
What i ended up playing so far...Jets panthers over 44, think both offenses are underrated. Browns +6, taking the points in what feels like a possible tight game. Bills -5.5, took this in the summer hoping line would be 7 by kick but now that’s it’s still below I’m not as bullish. Mac Jones over 28.5 pass attempts, have him projected around 33.
 
survive&advance said:
What i ended up playing so far...Jets panthers over 44, think both offenses are underrated. Browns +6, taking the points in what feels like a possible tight game. Bills -5.5, took this in the summer hoping line would be 7 by kick but now that’s it’s still below I’m not as bullish. Mac Jones over 28.5 pass attempts, have him projected around 33.
Click to expand...
Interesting bet on Mac.

Hmmmm
 
The overreaction to what Dallas did last night is going to be staggering. Although, there's reason to think some of it is justified.

Dallas was slated to have one of the two or three best WR corps in the league, so that they could come out and essentially go toe to toe with the champs maybe shouldn't be totally shocking. And Dak looked pretty much all the way back, which is kind of amazing. That said, having Dak throw 60 times a game is simply not a sustainable season-long strategy. There's a chance all Jerry Jones did by bringing in McCarthy is move GB south. A team that can score 30 a game, but is always at risk of giving up 30+. Tough to really say until you're not playing someone like TB though.
 
2daBank said:
I love what going on with the chargers as much as anyone but call me crazy, I think the Washington FT are a rock solid bet in week 1. It be even better if we could get a little plus money on them but I dunno if that happen?
Click to expand...

I've come around to this too, though I doubt I bet it. To me, the biggest thing to be learned from this game is where LA's upgraded OL is. Now, it's the first game, so you had a long time to scheme for this team—as we saw with Dallas' OL last night. But this is the best DL in the league. If the Chargers can give Herbert time this Sunday, they can give him time every Sunday. So the results this weekend may matter more for the following 17 weeks than they do in just this one game.
 
Joe Public said:
I've come around to this too, though I doubt I bet it. To me, the biggest thing to be learned from this game is where LA's upgraded OL is. Now, it's the first game, so you had a long time to scheme for this team—as we saw with Dallas' OL last night. But this is the best DL in the league. If the Chargers can give Herbert time this Sunday, they can give him time every Sunday. So the results this weekend may matter more for the following 17 weeks than they do in just this one game.
Click to expand...

yea, i still think Washington the right side but im not as excited to pound them or anything as i might have been at 1st,, i know better than falling to much in love with any nfl game!! i think what i will do is be making a smallish type play on the football team 1st half as i do like the idea of fading or playing 1st half under on teams that didnt give qbs preseason reps when it either a new coach/system, young qb, or a qb playing with new pieces.. i was surprised Dak was so good early but it not a new system or different pieces he was throwing to so makes more sense he was able to execute at a high level where i wouldnt expect that with qbs in new systems or different weapons.. throw in facing the best dline in the league and i be shocked if it all comes together for chargers right away, totally agree if they handle this pass rush then the rest the afc better watch out!! my biggest concern with betting the FT full game is Fitztragic instead of fitzmagic showing up against what should be a much improved chargers defense which gives hebert time to settle into the game..
 
Joe Public said:
The overreaction to what Dallas did last night is going to be staggering. Although, there's reason to think some of it is justified.

Dallas was slated to have one of the two or three best WR corps in the league, so that they could come out and essentially go toe to toe with the champs maybe shouldn't be totally shocking. And Dak looked pretty much all the way back, which is kind of amazing. That said, having Dak throw 60 times a game is simply not a sustainable season-long strategy. There's a chance all Jerry Jones did by bringing in McCarthy is move GB south. A team that can score 30 a game, but is always at risk of giving up 30+. Tough to really say until you're not playing someone like TB though.
Click to expand...

pretty sure mccarthy has never had a run game rank top 10 in the league!! terrible hire, just another jerry sock puppet. i give all the credit to dak that dallas played so clean, none to coach,, lol... that basically what 5-6 games in a row he has played with this coach and he has probably thrown 50+ times in all of them!! so while i guess ppl can tell me "tampa run d too good, passing worked" i would cite how they did same shit last year till dak got hurt.. zeke has been turned into a well paid lineman!! the defense will continue to get ripped and guys like cowherd will say "only way dallas can win is shootouts", or just maybe if they ran the ball some and controlled some clock the defense might just step up!! funny how that typically works!! very few defenses gonna look good in a game with 103 passing attempts!!!
 
I think I agree with all of that 2DB. Largely because I think last night showed what some Joes have been saying and that is that the NFL is now purely a passing league. That's what the NFL wants. 60+ combined points, passing, passing, passing. So, yeah, what's Zeke to do but block.

Now, a smart team would be able to use him to kill the clock and keep a great passing team off the field. But it's also September so maybe that shifts later in the year. But again, I come back to passing. You see people today talking about this 'missed' PI call on the Bucs. Personally, I don't think they call that all season. To be totally honest, I didn't think it was PI. He didn't really extend the arm, and the DB was leaning back so it made the fall look worse than it was. But even real time, I don't think the NFL 'wants' that call made. Because if you don't call it, today we're talking about non-calls and the plays that were made (through the air) to win the game as opposed to how shitty the NFL reffing is.

Passing, passing, passing.
 
Joe Public said:
I think I agree with all of that 2DB. Largely because I think last night showed what some Joes have been saying and that is that the NFL is now purely a passing league. That's what the NFL wants. 60+ combined points, passing, passing, passing. So, yeah, what's Zeke to do but block.

Now, a smart team would be able to use him to kill the clock and keep a great passing team off the field. But it's also September so maybe that shifts later in the year. But again, I come back to passing. You see people today talking about this 'missed' PI call on the Bucs. Personally, I don't think they call that all season. To be totally honest, I didn't think it was PI. He didn't really extend the arm, and the DB was leaning back so it made the fall look worse than it was. But even real time, I don't think the NFL 'wants' that call made. Because if you don't call it, today we're talking about non-calls and the plays that were made (through the air) to win the game as opposed to how shitty the NFL reffing is.

Passing, passing, passing.
Click to expand...

im like a grouchy old man yelling "get off my f'in lawn", i hate what nfl has become but you exactly right.. despite all i hate bout the rules now i agree that shouldnt have been called pi, i think the corner tried to sell it honestly, wasnt enough contact imo, where my problem lies is i dont want that ticky tack shit called on the defender either!! if they insist on being pass pass pass, points points points, at least throw me a freaking bone and allow some contact and hand fighting between the wr and corner, is that so much to ask? a little physicality with the now primary players!! if we getting 100 passes a game allowing some contact on outside isnt gonna hurt the scoring or the game, just give defenders a fighting freaking chance to make plays without calling pi all the damn time!

i think there was another titanic shift last year as apparently you now basically allowed to hold to block for qb (not a rushing play)!! it might get called if it crazy blatant out on the edge, if ref just has a wild hair up his butt, or if he has a bet that needs influenced of course! lol.. other than that holding on pass plays is so obviously being ignored most the time. god forbid we have too many qbs getting hit so go ahead and hold!! reffing sucks cause the nfl making them suck i think, mostly..
 
2daBank said:
i think there was another titanic shift last year as apparently you now basically allowed to hold to block for qb (not a rushing play)!! it might get called if it crazy blatant out on the edge, if ref just has a wild hair up his butt, or if he has a bet that needs influenced of course! lol.. other than that holding on pass plays is so obviously being ignored most the time. god forbid we have too many qbs getting hit so go ahead and hold!! reffing sucks cause the nfl making them suck i think, mostly..
Click to expand...

Yep. I mentioned this in another thread, but offensive holding calls were WAY down last year. The league doesn't want teams going backward. Now, they're not gone entirely, and there were a couple last night that were not only blatant, but the play was significant, so they called it, but generally I think they're laid off last year, and they're going to do the same this year. Again, look at last night just generally, I think that is exactly the game the NFL wants every Sunday—at the very least, in every primetime game.
 
If I recall correctly I thought they called one hold last night that wasn’t really shit, then the next play or 2 i saw way more blatant one and no call of course (no way they calling 2 holds on same set of downs!).

they can try to make them all like that but long as belicheck, harbaugh (even tho they do it in a new age way!), and some others alive we still gonna have teams who win by running the ball, playing defense, then taking advantage of how easy it is to be efficient with the passing game!! Although ncaa finally broke saban down as he realized he had to become a offensive powerhouse to stay on top!
 
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