Week 0 & 1 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

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Staff member
I hope this year has been very good to each and every one of you.

Guess what!?!

I know you’ve missed it, and now we are back……

ITS ML DOG THREAD TIME!!!

New Year
New Teams
Same Objective……

Let’s Talk ML Dogs!!!!

I honestly have not dug into ANYTHING yet.
I told myself, I was gonna wait until Aug 1st but what the hell.

Let’s get it started fellas, and even if it’s your 1st time here, come on in, stop by, share your thoughts, sometimes just mentioning something, anything, or if you are on the fence on a game or team, this is the place to get your answer

PLEASE, PLEASE, FEEL FREE to post your thoughts, no matter how off the rocker it may sound….. there is always that Appy St gm out there, let’s not miss it

Who do you like Week 0 & 1……..

And WELCOME BACK 2022 NCAA FOOTBALL

GBO
-Pro
 
I'm spending more time than I would like this time of year on some other things and most of my football time is in other areas right now.

Scott Frost's Nebraska team is now 2-2 vs NW with one win by 3 and the other last year 56-7. The prior 3 games either way had MOV of just 4.6 ppg.

I'm not sure how the fit is going to be with Whipple/Frost and new QB. Plenty of turnover on that Nebraska roster as well (best WR, TE, OL, DL, LB and DB from last year gone). Nebraska was upset 4x last year as a favorite and 11x in 4 seasons = poor favorite.

Northwestern would seem set for a bounce back year given Fitz history and if they can get QB play. The overall regression on D last year though is hard to overlook.

Charlotte played FAU even in the 1st H last year, then FAU dominated 2nd H. Both Os look fine for this one, would seem it could be competitive if Charlotte plays for 4 qrt.
 
Just did my first run through on the lines available to me, off the cuff I want to look more into:

Hawaii
Purdue
W Michigan
Florida
Syracuse
Notre Dame
App St
Rutgers
Army
Oregon
FSU
 
gps_3 said:
Just did my first run through on the lines available to me, off the cuff I want to look more into:

Hawaii
Purdue
W Michigan
Florida
Syracuse
Notre Dame
App St
Rutgers
Army
Oregon
FSU
Click to expand...
Purdue will be a popular dog.

Night game at home, against a big name opponent. I know @PaintCrew already took a position. I'd agree, at this point.
 
Hawaii looks pretty rough first run through. Think they won't be as bad as the recent Norm Chow team, but they figure to be fairly bad. I know very very little to almost nothing about Vanderbilt.
 
Remember favs with losing records from the previous season are always good to look into...recall Vandy lost to ETSU last season.

;)
 
JROCK1966 said:
Remember favs with losing records from the previous season are always good to look into...recall Vandy lost to ETSU last season.

;)
Click to expand...

True, but that was game #1 of the new staff for Vandy vs an ETSU team that finished 11-2 and made it into the second round of the playoffs.

I think the culture at Hawaii will get fixed and probably have always wanted to see if Cooper is any good or not since he never really got a chance at Wazzou.

Vs this particular Hawaii team and staff, a loss would certainly mark a new low for Vanderbilt football, I am not going to put money on it happening.
 
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s--k said:
True, but that was game #1 of the new staff for Vandy vs an ETSU team that finished 11-2 and made it into the second round of the playoffs.

I think the culture at Hawaii will get fixed and probably have always wanted to see if Cooper is any good or not since he never really got a chance at Wazzou.

Vs this particular Hawaii team and staff, a loss would certainly mark a new low for Vanderbilt football, I am not going to put money on it happening.
Click to expand...
I was just saying in general...was not necessarily referencing the Rainbows...just coincidence Vandy was in both our thoughts/posts. I've yet to look into who all is currently favored that had a losing record last season. I do remember that Vandy/ETSU line was posted late...like on gameday late and I missed it.
 
s--k said:
True, but that was game #1 of the new staff for Vandy vs an ETSU team that finished 11-2 and made it into the second round of the playoffs.

I think the culture at Hawaii will get fixed and probably have always wanted to see if Cooper is any good or not since he never really got a chance at Wazzou.

Vs this particular Hawaii team and staff, a loss would certainly mark a new low for Vanderbilt football, I am not going to put money on it happening.
Click to expand...
I think Hawaii sports in general will parallel the island's" recovery from COVID. Been told tourism is still at least 3 years away from any sense of normalcy, at one point it was estimated they lost 90% of the work force in the industry moving back to the continental US. That has to take a toll on people just moving there in general let alone athletes and their playing careers.

It's not close to being an all around posh place to live right now and I expect them to show it on the field. Candy might win by a big margin...enough to fade the next game.
 
Hawaii is 12-3 ATS as a home dog before week 4 if the line is less than 24. The data also confirms that the higher the total is better for them to win. Basically the other teams D is bad. Makes sense.
 
spottie2935 said:
Hawaii is 12-3 ATS as a home dog before week 4 if the line is less than 24. The data also confirms that the higher the total is better for them to win. Basically the other teams D is bad. Makes sense.
Click to expand...
They are a complete trend toss for me this season and probably next too. And I enjoy betting them but this is an overhaul.
 
spottie2935 said:
I just saw some comments here so I posted one trend that favors them in week 1. I dont like week 1 sides to often. If i play early weeks i prefer unders
Click to expand...
I'm not positive they win a game this year. And that sucks. Think they're looking for a reason to dump the FB program really.
 
1st pass thru my book's lines...here are some favs (with previous season's losing records) and spreads based upon my post above:

Week 0:
Nebraska (3-9) -12.5 vs. Northwestern
FAU (5-7) -7.5 vs. Charlotte
Illini (5-7) -10 vs. Wyoming
Vandy (2-10) -7 @ Hawaii

Week 1:
Indiana (2-10) -5 vs. Illini
Duke (3-9) -8 vs. Temple
TCU (5-7) -8 @ Colorado
FAU (5-7) -2.5 @ Ohio
USC (4-8) -35 vs. Rice
Washington (4-8) -21.5 vs. Kent St.
Texas (5-7) -38.5 vs. UL-Monroe
Tulane (2-10) -30 vs. UMass


Who did I miss?

:popcorn:
 
Just My 1st pass I wanna hear everyones thoughts on …..
(All of these from DK today)

West Vaginya +7 @ Pitt
Illini +5 @ Indy
Houston @ UTSA +5
Temple +8 @ Dook
Rutgers +8 @ BC
Zona +6 @ SDST
Texas St +7 @ Nevada
UNC @ Appy St +3
MTSU +7 @ James Madison
Army +4 @ Coastal Carolina
Utah @ Gators +2
LVille @ Cuse +3
Liberty @ S Miss +3
MemFis +16 @ Miss St
Boise +3 @ Org St
FSU +3 @ LSU

The Big Dogs I am just spitballn’

Kent St +21 @ Washington
W Mich +19 @ Sparty
Miami Oh +20.5 @ KentLucky
UMass +30 @ Tulane
Buffalo + 21.5 @ Maryland
 
I just realized reading through those week 1 matchups how far behind I am. I don't think I'll have anything of substance to contribute for a while.
 
Some Week 0 & 1 matchups between FCS & FBS:

FAMU finished ranked #24 in FCS with a 9-3 record. UNC will be breaking in a new QB.
EKU received votes in the final FCS poll is @ EMU.
SDST finished #5 in FCS poll is at Iowa.
UNI finished #25 in FCS poll is at Air Force.
UC-Davis finished #16 in FCS poll is at California. I love in-state matchups and will look into this one further....
SELA finished #15 in FCS poll is at UL-Lafayette who of course lost their Coach to FL.
Mercer received votes in final FCS poll is at Auburn. If Aubbie lost this game Harsin would be fired on the spot.
South Dakota finished #20 in FCS poll is at K-State.
Elon received votes in final FCS poll is at Vandy. After researching Vandy and Hawaii a little bit, this game might be the tougher of the 2 for the Dores.

:popcorn:
 
UC-Davis @ Cal: Cal was 5-7 last season. Are the favored in this game? I don't know but hopefully they'll be a DD fav. Just sharing some of what PS said in his preview:
Cal lost 6 of 8 top tacklers off their defense and they also only have 3 returning starters on offense having lost their QB, top RB, and 6 of 7 top receivers. Definitely a candidate for further consideration (for an upset) if they're favored which they should be.....keep an eye out for the line on this game boys!!

:popcorn::oops:
 
JROCK1966 said:
UC-Davis @ Cal: Cal was 5-7 last season. Are the favored in this game? I don't know but hopefully they'll be a DD fav. Just sharing some of what PS said in his preview:
Cal lost 6 of 8 top tacklers off their defense and they also only have 3 returning starters on offense having lost their QB, top RB, and 6 of 7 top receivers. Definitely a candidate for further consideration (for an upset) if they're favored which they should be.....keep an eye out for the line on this game boys!!

:popcorn::oops:
Click to expand...
Might not be more than 4 honestly
 
JROCK1966 said:
UC-Davis @ Cal: Cal was 5-7 last season. Are the favored in this game? I don't know but hopefully they'll be a DD fav. Just sharing some of what PS said in his preview:
Cal lost 6 of 8 top tacklers off their defense and they also only have 3 returning starters on offense having lost their QB, top RB, and 6 of 7 top receivers. Definitely a candidate for further consideration (for an upset) if they're favored which they should be.....keep an eye out for the line on this game boys!!

:popcorn::oops:
Click to expand...
"The Aggies of UC Davis were selected fifth in both polls after making a trip to the FCS Playoffs last season."

bigskyconf.com

Montana Tabbed Big Sky Preseason Favorites by Coaches & Media

SPOKANE, Washington (July 25, 2022) – Following a 10-3 campaign that featured a 6-2 league record and a trip to the Quarterfinals of the 2021 FCS Playoffs, the Montana Grizzlies have been tabbed the Big Sky Conference preseason favorites by both the league’s head football coaches and media.
bigskyconf.com bigskyconf.com
 
KJ said:
Might not be more than 4 honestly
Click to expand...
I'm not so sure...Vandy was a -17 fav vs. ETSU last year and they were coming off a winless season. ETSU finished in the top 25 of FCS in Spring of 21 if I recall correctly. Cal was 5-7 last season so it might even be a larger spread than -17.... :popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
I'm not so sure...Vandy was a -17 fav vs. ETSU last year and they were coming off a winless season. ETSU finished in the top 25 of FCS in Spring of 21 if I recall correctly. Cal was 5-7 last season so it might even be a larger spread than -17.... :popcorn:
Click to expand...
That's not normal. There are usually a slew of games within a TD between FCS and FBS and if this isn't one of them I give up. Davis is good and I don't think it's a secret. Probably should be favored.
 
FAMU @ UNC: Interesting game here as the Tar Heels lost their QB. Did a little digging and FAMU seems to be better this year than the 9-3 team that finished #24 in the FCS rankings.

"Those are some one of a kind guys, but we picked up some really key elements. We got some transfers from Tulsa (Lamar Mullins), Alabama A&M (Jordan Cumberbatch) to replace them," Bohler said. "We got way more depth than we had last year, so there won't be too much of a dropoff from second string to even third string. We're looking good and coming after it."

www.tallahassee.com

The second time around: 3 takeaways from FAMU football at SWAC Media Day

The Rattlers are entering their second season in the SWAC. On Thursday, Willie Simmons and the team took part in the conference media day.
www.tallahassee.com www.tallahassee.com

"We were one point away from being the SWAC East champs last year," Simmons said. "That's why these guys came back -- they had unfinished business. "We're not comfortable or satisfied with being a nine-win football team and having our first playoff berth in 20 years. These guys want a SWAC and black college football national championship. The work that they put in shows that they're committed to that."

www.tallahassee.com

The second time around: 3 takeaways from FAMU football at SWAC Media Day

The Rattlers are entering their second season in the SWAC. On Thursday, Willie Simmons and the team took part in the conference media day.
www.tallahassee.com www.tallahassee.com

The Rattlers also are predicted to finish second in the SWAC East, racking up 108 points and seven first place votes.

:popcorn:
 
ProV1Colt said:
Just My 1st pass I wanna hear everyones thoughts on …..
(All of these from DK today)

West Vaginya +7 @ Pitt
Illini +5 @ Indy
Houston @ UTSA +5
Temple +8 @ Dook
Rutgers +8 @ BC
Zona +6 @ SDST
Texas St +7 @ Nevada
UNC @ Appy St +3
MTSU +7 @ James Madison
Army +4 @ Coastal Carolina
Utah @ Gators +2
LVille @ Cuse +3
Liberty @ S Miss +3
MemFis +16 @ Miss St
Boise +3 @ Org St
FSU +3 @ LSU

The Big Dogs I am just spitballn’

Kent St +21 @ Washington
W Mich +19 @ Sparty
Miami Oh +20.5 @ KentLucky
UMass +30 @ Tulane
Buffalo + 21.5 @ Maryland
Click to expand...
Illini and Rutgers look good to me only because I’m bearish on Indiana/BC, both their OLs are poor
 
survive&advance said:
Surprised nobody has mentioned Cincinnati +7 yet. I know they lost a ton but Arkansas lost a decent amount of production as well. Spread opened at 8.5 so they’ve taken some sharp money
Click to expand...
Not disagreeing but I feel like Arkansas been an off-season public darling.
 
survive&advance said:
Any idea why? Nothing really stands out to me with them, dunno if I’m missing something
Click to expand...

I have the same impression of Arkansas "buzz" this past month listening to media types. 9 win season (most in 10 years), nearly beat Ole Miss, played fairly respectable vs Bama, beat A&M. Jefferson and a pretty good OL. Made significant improvements on D. Plus Sam Pittman then Barry Odom and Kendall Briles are still there. People are liking Arkansas.
 
twinkie13 said:
That’s a huge number for Tulane

UMass must be god awful
Click to expand...

Certainly is! 30. UMass "only" lost by 30 or more 5x last ssn (Pitt, Coastal, Toledo, FSU, Liberty). Tulane capable of rolling bad teams...just seems like Tulane has lost itself the last few seasons. They should be better than this. Maybe playing OU and Ole Miss within first 3 games of the season last year just messed them all up. Will be curious to see what Don Brown cooks up at UMass.
 
JROCK1966 said:
I'm not so sure...Vandy was a -17 fav vs. ETSU last year and they were coming off a winless season. ETSU finished in the top 25 of FCS in Spring of 21 if I recall correctly. Cal was 5-7 last season so it might even be a larger spread than -17.... :popcorn:
Click to expand...

KJ said:
That's not normal. There are usually a slew of games within a TD between FCS and FBS and if this isn't one of them I give up. Davis is good and I don't think it's a secret. Probably should be favored.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure Dan Hawkins is at UC Davis. They beat Tulsa last year (+23.5).

Jeff Sagarin had 8-4 UC Davis ranked #140 with a combined rating of 53.95. Cal was #65 with a 71.55.
 
s--k said:
Certainly is! 30. UMass "only" lost by 30 or more 5x last ssn (Pitt, Coastal, Toledo, FSU, Liberty). Tulane capable of rolling bad teams...just seems like Tulane has lost itself the last few seasons. They should be better than this. Maybe playing OU and Ole Miss within first 3 games of the season last year just messed them all up. Will be curious to see what Don Brown cooks up at UMass.
Click to expand...
Again the schedule is pretty tough. AAC has some quality too. I’ll have more later
 
I kinda like Rutgers but I'm not sure who remotely thinks BC is 8 pts better. Best step back and be committed before taking them. Quirky line for sure.
 
s--k said:
Pretty sure Dan Hawkins is at UC Davis. They beat Tulsa last year (+23.5).

Jeff Sagarin had 8-4 UC Davis ranked #140 with a combined rating of 53.95. Cal was #65 with a 71.55.
Click to expand...
Hard to categorize some of these West FCS teams because they all play each other. Davis was 8-1 then lost to EWU, Sac St, and at S Dakota St in the playoffs. I'd favor all 3 of them over Cal...last year. 8-4 is just a number in this case.
 
s--k said:
Pretty sure Dan Hawkins is at UC Davis. They beat Tulsa last year (+23.5).

Jeff Sagarin had 8-4 UC Davis ranked #140 with a combined rating of 53.95. Cal was #65 with a 71.55.
Click to expand...
Didn't quite remember that name at first then it finally hit me...one of the better rants I've heard came from him!!

:rofl:

 
JROCK1966 said:
FAMU @ UNC: Interesting game here as the Tar Heels lost their QB. Did a little digging and FAMU seems to be better this year than the 9-3 team that finished #24 in the FCS rankings.

"Those are some one of a kind guys, but we picked up some really key elements. We got some transfers from Tulsa (Lamar Mullins), Alabama A&M (Jordan Cumberbatch) to replace them," Bohler said. "We got way more depth than we had last year, so there won't be too much of a dropoff from second string to even third string. We're looking good and coming after it."

www.tallahassee.com

The second time around: 3 takeaways from FAMU football at SWAC Media Day

The Rattlers are entering their second season in the SWAC. On Thursday, Willie Simmons and the team took part in the conference media day.
www.tallahassee.com www.tallahassee.com

"We were one point away from being the SWAC East champs last year," Simmons said. "That's why these guys came back -- they had unfinished business. "We're not comfortable or satisfied with being a nine-win football team and having our first playoff berth in 20 years. These guys want a SWAC and black college football national championship. The work that they put in shows that they're committed to that."

www.tallahassee.com

The second time around: 3 takeaways from FAMU football at SWAC Media Day

The Rattlers are entering their second season in the SWAC. On Thursday, Willie Simmons and the team took part in the conference media day.
www.tallahassee.com www.tallahassee.com

The Rattlers also are predicted to finish second in the SWAC East, racking up 108 points and seven first place votes.

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
For what it’s worth, I will be all over my Heels in this one as this is the perfect week 1 matchup for them after such a disappointing last season. Huge physical mismatch on both sides will allow for lots of big plays while also affording the run game plenty of opportunities to pound on the ground. FAMU will definitely be solid this year, but this one has the makings of a good old fashioned beat down in my opinion.

Keep up the great work as this is one of my favorite threads and that is coming from a 95% favs player!
 
carolinablue said:
For what it’s worth, I will be all over my Heels in this one as this is the perfect week 1 matchup for them after such a disappointing last season. Huge physical mismatch on both sides will allow for lots of big plays while also affording the run game plenty of opportunities to pound on the ground. FAMU will definitely be solid this year, but this one has the makings of a good old fashioned beat down in my opinion.

Keep up the great work as this is one of my favorite threads and that is coming from a 95% favs player!
Click to expand...
I was hoping I didn't piss you off too bad... ;)
 
M.W. said:
Interesting. I'm looking at the other side as a big play.
Click to expand...
@M.W. Sorry just saw this. Would love some `Nits notes if you got 'em. Like @B.A.R. mentioned I've got a healthy bit of Purdue +4.5 when the early lines came out first because I do think it's high and assumed (still do) that it will likely close just under a FG so I've got some buy back and a small middle opp but thus far I haven't seen or read anything out of either camp that has deterred me.
 
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