Wednesday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD width=225>Wednesday, July 09, 2008</TD><!-- <td width=80 bgcolor=#FFFFFF>GamePeriod<td> <td width=80 align=center>1stPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>2ndPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>3rdPeriod</td> <td width=55> </td> </tr>--><TR bgColor=#666666><TD align=middle colSpan=8>Line Changes made within the last 15 Minutes will have a Grey background.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>2:35 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>901</TD><TD width=160>Florida Marlins </TD><TD width=130>S Olsen -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-220</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>902 </TD><TD width=160>San Diego Padres </TD><TD width=130>C Baek -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+180</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>903</TD><TD width=160>Houston Astros </TD><TD width=130>B Moehler -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>904 </TD><TD width=160>Pittsburgh Pirates </TD><TD width=130>Van Benschoten -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm (ESPN) </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>905</TD><TD width=160>St Louis Cardinals </TD><TD width=130>M Mulder -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+115</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>906 </TD><TD width=160>Philadelphia Phillies </TD><TD width=130>J Happ -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-135</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>907</TD><TD width=160>San Francisco Giants </TD><TD width=130>J Sanchez -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+170</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>908 </TD><TD width=160>New York Mets </TD><TD width=130>JO Santana -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>7</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-200</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>909</TD><TD width=160>Arizona Diamondbacks </TD><TD width=130>M Owings -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+150</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>910 </TD><TD width=160>Washington Nationals </TD><TD width=130>J Lannan -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-170</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>911</TD><TD width=160>Cincinnati Reds </TD><TD width=130>J Cueto -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+160</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>912 </TD><TD width=160>Chicago Cubs </TD><TD width=130>C Zambrano -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-180</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>913</TD><TD width=160>Colorado Rockies </TD><TD width=130>G Rusch -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+200</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>914 </TD><TD width=160>Milwaukee Brewers </TD><TD width=130>B Sheets -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-240</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>915</TD><TD width=160>Atlanta Braves </TD><TD width=130>T Hudson -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-225</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>916 </TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Dodgers </TD><TD width=130>D Lowe -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+185</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>7½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>12:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>917</TD><TD width=160>Tampa Bay Rays </TD><TD width=130>E Jackson -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-180</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>918 </TD><TD width=160>New York Yankees </TD><TD width=130>S Ponson -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>12:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>919</TD><TD width=160>Minnesota Twins </TD><TD width=130>L Hernandez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+210</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>920 </TD><TD width=160>Boston Red Sox </TD><TD width=130>J Beckett -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-250</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>921</TD><TD width=160>Cleveland Indians </TD><TD width=130>P Byrd -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+135</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>922 </TD><TD width=160>Detroit Tigers </TD><TD width=130>E Bonine -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-155</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>923</TD><TD width=160>Baltimore Orioles </TD><TD width=130>G Olson -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>-145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#666666>+150</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>924 </TD><TD width=160>Toronto Blue Jays </TD><TD width=130>A Burnett -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>+125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#666666>-170</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>927</TD><TD width=160>Chicago White Sox </TD><TD width=130>J Vazquez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>+130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>+105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>928 </TD><TD width=160>Kansas City Royals </TD><TD width=130>B Bannister -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>-150</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>-125</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>929</TD><TD width=160>Seattle Mariners </TD><TD width=130>M Batista -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-150</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+140</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>930 </TD><TD width=160>Oakland Athletics </TD><TD width=130>J Blanton -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-160</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>1:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
Umpire: Barrett, Ted

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>E Jackson
S Ponson
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>1:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Minnesota at Boston
Umpire: Scott Barry

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>L Hernandez
J Beckett
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cleveland at Detroit
Umpire: Culbreth, Fieldin

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>P Byrd
E Bonine
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:07 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Baltimore at Toronto
Umpire: Wolf, Jim

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>G Olson
AJ Burnett
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Angels at Texas
Umpire: Bob Davidson

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Weaver
N/A
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>White Sox at Kansas City
Umpire: Iassogna, Dan

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Vazquez
B Bannister
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Seattle at Oakland
Umpire: Mark Wegner

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>M Batista
J Blanton
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>3:35 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Florida at San Diego
Umpire: Joe West

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>S Olsen
C Baek
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>St. Louis at Philadelphia
Umpire: Hudson, Marvin

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>M Mulder
J Happ
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Houston at Pittsburgh
Umpire: Kerwin Danley

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>B Moehler
J Benschoten
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Francisco at NY Mets
Umpire: Cuzzi, Phil

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Sanchez
J Santana
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Arizona at Washington
Umpire: Fairchild, Chad

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>M Owings
J Lannan
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cincinnati at Chi. Cubs
Umpire: Tschida, Tim

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Cueto
C Zambrano
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Colorado at Milwaukee
Umpire: Larry Vanover

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>G Rusch
B Sheets
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Atlanta at LA Dodgers
Umpire: Bill Miller

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>T Hudson
D Lowe
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
ESPN TV games have been infused with Fav results recently,
especially games with home favs.

The Fav is 10-3 SU last 13 games, 18-6 SU last 24 games
Home Favs are 10-2 SU last 12 games, 17-4 SU last 21 games

A 75-84% Fav hit rate is not normal.
One would expect a correction to be coming.


The games on ESPN's schedule
(pitching match-ups where possible based on normal rest in brackets)

Saint Louis @Philadelphia (Mulder vs Happ)
Colorado @NY Mets (Redman vs Pelfrey)
Boston @LA Angels
Milwaukee @Saint Louis
NY Yankees @Boston
 
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Laying the chalk with Johan tommorrow, hasn't won a start in 6-7 outings, San Fran's lineup sucks and the Mets are hot.
 
Minnesota this season

14-4 SU in interleague play
8-1 SU at home
6-3 SU on the road

14-10 SU vs AL teams .500 or less
8-7 SU at home
6-3 SU on the road

22-26 SU vs AL teams .500 or better
16-10 SU at home
_6-16 SU on the road ......................... hello, Boston


Levon's last 13 IP on the road vs AL teams have yielded 20 ERs.
That's an ERA of 13.84
 
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Boston has gone 42 games w/out recording consecutive Over results.
That's their longest such streak since before the 2002 season.
Their previous longest such streak in said period was 28 games (in 2002).

Boston is 12-0-3 to Under off the 15 Over results that have occurred during this 42 game run.

They of course play Minnesota Wednesday off Tuesday's Over result.
 
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Cincinnati Reds last 33 road games of offense -

15 totals between 0-2 runs .... O/U 4-9-2 .... 1-14 SU (7 opp. lefties)
_5 totals between 3-4 runs ..... O/U 2-3 ....... 2-3 SU (no opp. lefty)
13 totals of 5 or more runs ..... O/U 10-3 ..... 8-5 SU (7 opp lefties)


Another team who rarely delivers anything inbetween.
 
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I think BC if we look at the 2008 season we will see alot of these extreme "trends" for teams in different areas such as LHP and RHP . Very obvious when you look closely that patterns are running very deep this season
 
Yet another study in extremes, the Mets last 19 games
of all-or-nothing offense in the normal 9 regulation inns -

7, 1, 3, 2, 0, 8, 15, 0, 2, 3, 1, 7, 7 & 11, 2, 9, 2, 10 & 7 run totals.

10 totals of 0-3 runs.
_0 totals of 4-6 runs.
_9 totals of 7+ runs.
 
Perhaps if you looked closely at the REDS in that stretch vs RHP as compared to LHP I bet it gets even more extreme.
 
And with Ponson on the hill, despite being the home team - don't you have to at least consider a correlated paraly of NYY/OVER?
 
Doggy - It's correlated if you take Tampa to the OVER. Visiting team to lead going into the bottom of the ninth, ensuring three more outs and roughly six percent more baseball.

Also correlated if you like Ponson and are willing to take Yankees ML to UNDER. Yanks lead after 8 1/2 means three less outs; roughly six percent less baseball.

As for me, I prefer the Devil Rays to the OVER :)
 
Yanks are starting to hit but what concerns me is look at the Ponsons 1st two Yankee starts ..9-0 should have went over and 18-7 ...alot of run support . If Yanks put up 6 runs might be tough to get that over .
 
Yeah, I know the math Rex, but for the Yanks to win with Ponson and his 2+ whip over his last three starts its going to take some runs. He's gotta be good for 4-5 runs, so the way I see it, they're gonna have to score their share to get a win here. I'll give the half inning this time
 
In Ponson's last 8 starts that weren't part of a double-header
WHIP 1.75, ERA 5.51, O/U 8-0, 16.88 runs/game avg

That WHIP would on average translate to a 6.30 ERA
 
And Jackson's given up 11 ER in his last 18.2 innings on the road. OVER certainly looks like the play here
 
I still think you have to figure out how the game is gonna play out when making plays even correlated parlays . Look how many home favs to overs hit today . Every day is a new day . Every play is different .

I am just not sold on TB lineup , think EJackson is dealing well at the moment and Yanks will improving still far from maximizing there runs potential each game . Easily could have had 10 today .

Jeter thrown out at home when really with ARod up why test Upton ? Easy Meachem sends everyone , everytime .

Posada somehow missed a HR and got a double out of it later stranded .

In the 5th leadoff walk , then error get a melky K then Jeter DP.

The 8th ends on a base hit and Posada thrown at home by a huge margin. Again MEachem stops no one. Yansk were in a groove and didnt look like it would end as Cano wore out the TB reliever .....

Lots of chances squandered still IMO....

Dont think the over is bad just need some research to see if I pickup anything .
 
The Over gets served by Tampa not only losing but getting shutout.

They haven't been shutout since they got above, and haven't since been back below, a .500 record.

Tampa's last 8 games off consecutive losses -

7-3 won/Over
12-4 won/Over
1-7 lost/Under (9.0 line)
7-6 won/Over
5-4 won/Over
3-7 lost/Over
7-3 won/Over
5-6 lost/Over

The only Under is the only time they failed to score at least 2 runs.
Will they get 0-1 runs vs Ponson?
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
ESPN TV games have been infused with Fav results recently,
especially games with home favs.

The Fav is 10-3 SU last 13 games, 18-6 SU last 24 games
Home Favs are 10-2 SU last 12 games, 17-4 SU last 21 games

A 75-84% Fav hit rate is not normal.
One would expect a correction to be coming.


The games on ESPN's schedule
(pitching match-ups where possible based on normal rest in brackets)

Saint Louis @Philadelphia (Mulder vs Happ)
Colorado @NY Mets (Redman vs Pelfrey)
Boston @LA Angels
Milwaukee @Saint Louis
NY Yankees @Boston
Click to expand...


I was already drooling over Philly tomorrow....this pushes me over the edge big time.:cheers:
 
Hit the Tigers team total today & I would have to say it looks great again for Wednesday. I simply don't believe Byrd repeats his performance vs the Tigers on 6/6/....... Zona team total under yet again, no real reason to stop playing tt under for them in road games....
 
Its a tough call probably stay away from the total. Edwin Jackson has been solid on the road so far minus Fenway Park . He has been really good in 2 of his last 3 starts vs NYY and the one wasnt that bad just some timely hitting vs him. Even last year he was fairly decent vs NYY . Ponson is all about working out of jams . He really never pitched on extended rest in 2008 so curious to see what happens since its a week now . The mets game was super extended rest after being released so not a good sample.

Eddings does help an under .

Torn but probably on NYY ML. As I said no way is TB better on a neutral field let alone equal at the Stadium . Smoke and mirrors ....
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
?...Philly is the Fav, and slumping bigtime. Mulder is a lefty, which Philly prefer not to see. The basis for a dog result is well there.
Click to expand...

Mulder might literally be 50% of the pitcher he was before he got hurt though . Philly will bounce back I think . Cards again L5 games 1 , 1 , 5 , 1 and 2 runs . The 5 spot was a 3 run 9th off Wood . The game started vs LHP they scored 5 runs off Lilly , Marshall and Hamels . Just dont think Mulder is ML ready at this point . :shake:
 
Personally I wouldn't touch Philly with a tem foot pole- their offense has looked terrible the past couple days.
 
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa announced Sunday that Mark Mulder will rejoin the starting rotation Wednesday against the Phillies.

Uh oh. "He’s starter material and we have a spot in the rotation," La Russa said. "He’s the guy who fits it best." Funny that La Russa would come to that conclusion, seeing as Mulder has served up two runs on four hits over 1 1/3 innings since he was activated. He wasn't even an effective starter in the minors. This just screams trouble.

Cardinals activated LHP Mark Mulder from the 15-day disabled list.
Even though the left-hander has never worked in relief before, the Cards are going to throw Mulder right into their pen. The experiment has disaster written all over it. Mulder had a 6.55 ERA and a .338 average against in the minors, and he hasn't pitched in a week after being scratched from his last start with back stiffness

Last time StL decided to throw a SP who wasnt 100% was Todd Wellenmeyer and I believe Philly won 19-2 @ StL.

:shake:Philly ML for me....
 
Yea they put up 9 runs and it still wasnt even a ballgame till the last out of the game...please dont remind me I may throw up...That was a hard loss to deal with...Pedro whipped me
 
SportsNut said:
They did put up 9 on Monday
Click to expand...

Ha, realized after I hit submit how dumb that looks, but I watched that whole series & they seemed a bit lackluster. Even Monday, they only had 2 runs going into the 7th, both solo shots. It wasn't until they left Pedro in longer & the Phillies had a crack at a tired pen that they started hitting. Perez held them to just 4 hits in his start resulting in a 4-2 Phils loss. They only managed 4 hits in the 9-4 loss. Then again who knows with these listed pitchers....
 
Lexington 125 said:
Ha, realized after I hit submit how dumb that looks, but I watched that whole series & they seemed a bit lackluster. Even Monday, they only had 2 runs going into the 7th, both solo shots. It wasn't until they left Pedro in longer & the Phillies had a crack at a tired pen that they started hitting. Perez held them to just 4 hits in his start resulting in a 4-2 Phils loss. They only managed 4 hits in the 9-4 loss. Then again who knows with these listed pitchers....
Click to expand...

nah , your right though they havent hit much . Alot of Hrs Howards 3 run shot then Werths 2 run shot basically accounted for the runs in Games 2 and 3 . I just think Johan Santana , Ollie Perez when he is sharp and Maine are pretty solid SPs. Even Piniero has had some solid starts this year and said his sinker was money tonight . Just a huge drop in opposing SP.

Then again Phillys loss here cost me 20 units (swing) today . So what do I know:36_11_6:
 
Arizona is now 7-13 in their last 20 road games, scoring over 4 runs in just 3 of them. Lannan's numbers at home aren't the best, but apparently it doesn't matter when you are at home vs the backs. Zona team total under4, because it'll likely be an even money play & you get to sidestep the disgrace that is the National's offense @ home...


Game under too.
 
Think I am just gonna be on the Tigers at home till they show me they are gonna lose, they now have 6 wins in a row and have won 12 of 13. One more with Cleveland then a 4 game set with the twinkies.
 
Looking at :

SDP - Olsen is looking terrible on the road and earlier I questioned health and something is off . His last 2 away @ Col and @ Sea he was smoked. Think 9.1INN 22h 14r 12 er . Beak has been real good 3 times and real bad 3 times who knows what to expect. I expect SD to win the series but an over might be an order as well. Florida just not playing well last month IMO.

NYY ML- Just think when NY is a PK at home vs TB it presents value regardless of SPs . Probably interested in the under at 10 but could see reasons for both totals.

Minny/Boston - Not sure I see the value in Minnesota . They had 2 solid SP in Blackburn and Baker go in the 1st 2 games who have had some road sucess and despite playing well lost BOTH games in the 8th inning . Now they send a very hittable Livan Hernandez out who has allowed 20 earned runs / 33 hits in 13 innings in his 3 last away starts . Beckett in his last 8 has allowed more then 3 runs once and 3 runs once so 6 times two or less . Papelbon is probably unavbilable as he pitched 3 straight now . Boston pen abit concerning but how can Minnys not be either with 2 8th inning losses. Worse is Livan has struggled in his day starts as well and Tuck always say Boston at home in the day BEWARE ! So thinking Boston ML but not sure as I played them in 1 and 2 .

Philly ML- Mulder fade as STL is struggling to hit LHP 2-1-2-2 runs last 4 vs them. Possible RHE over or game over ....

NYM ML_ Mets starting to get some momentum and isnt about time Johan Santana gets a WIN ?????

Expect Zona to win either game 2 or 3 the question is what one ? Bergmann has been so solid at home tougher to fade him but Lannan is quality but tends to worse at home...so???????

Hmm Glendon Rusch vs Ben Sheets ?? hard to pass on Milw isnt it ?

Derek Lowe dealing well and Hudson has road issues . Even money might have to take LAD to win the series as would expect ATL has won few road series to date .

Det/ Cle tough one . Byrd struggles most vs power LHBs and well DET doesnt really sport those . Bonine has been solid for the most part might go under ...really just guessing here.....

Balt/ Tor - Jays vs LHSP always seems to mean fade Tor but not certain

Hard to ignore SHSU comments on Ballard in the minors so curious to see this line.

Not sure about the west AL games .....:cheers:

 
Moneyline_Monster said:
Nut, any thoughts on the Mets/Giants tommorrow.
Click to expand...

SF simply not hitting LHP lately .

L5 vs LHP
4-1 Sowers
1-4 Eveland
1-4 Lee
2-9 Lilly
3-5 Stults

Johan Santana off one of his better starts @ Philly and we know this is when he starts to get going with his huge 2nd H runs . Sanchez has won like 6 straight away and stumbled last start at home vs LAD think he is ripe for a road loss . NYM actually had him on the ropes in the earlier start but the big defecit was tough and Mets just seemed to not take advantage of early jams.

SFG is 6-9 away vs LHP from the beginning of the season on they have scored ..

2 4 5 6 1 4 3 8 6 11 3 4 3 4 1 1

So hard to pass on NYM with how they are playing . :cheers:
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" bgColor=black border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="FONT-SIZE: x-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e4e4e4; TEXT-ALIGN: center">Ponson vs Tampa this Season & Last </TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=white><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" bgColor=black border=0><TBODY><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ecece4; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>DATE</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>OPP</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=2>TOTAL</TD><TD>SCORE</TD><TD>POR</TD><TD>TEAM</TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>WHIP</TD><TD>IP</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>4/14/07</TD><TD>H</TD><TD align=left>Tampa</TD><TD></TD><TD>10.5</TD><TD>O</TD><TD>12-5</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>3.38</TD><TD>2.06</TD><TD>5.0</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>6</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>5/01/07</TD><TD>A</TD><TD align=left>Tampa</TD><TD></TD><TD>10.5</TD><TD>U</TD><TD>9-1</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>1.29</TD><TD>1.31</TD><TD>5.1</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>5</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>5/26/08</TD><TD>A</TD><TD align=left>Tampa </TD><TD></TD><TD>9.0</TD><TD>O</TD><TD>3-7</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>9.00</TD><TD>3.00</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Overall WHIP of 2.02, which on average (2.5 BRs = 1 run) would translate into an ERA of 7.27, not the actual ERA here of 4.15.

The seemingly good 5/01/07 start (the only Under) is explained thus -
Tampa had just finished a road trip (2-3 SU - by the road standards of old TBY teams, a success), and Minny spotted fatass a 6-0 lead after 1.5 inns. No real suprise Tampa should mentally exit the game from that point.

Still, the 1 start vs the new version of Tampa he got dealt to, and even then came away lucky he didnt give up more.
 
NYY pen last 7-8 days :

25.1 INN
13 HITS
4 ER
8BB 24Ks
The sick part is MO is responsible for 6hits and 2 runs in 4 innings.
 
SportsNut said:
NYY pen last 7-8 days :

25.1 INN
13 HITS
4 ER
8BB 24Ks
The sick part is MO is responsible for 6hits and 2 runs in 4 innings.
Click to expand...

I'm guessing the majority of that work comes from 3 games vs the Mutts not hitting well (after their 1st game of the DH outburst), and 4 games vs Boston not hitting well.

Prior to yesterday's shutout, Tampa had scored at least 3 runs in 15 straight games (4+ in 12 of them). Neither Boston or the Mets could boast that entering their series vs NYY and it's 3.53 ERA pen.
 
I'm guessing the majority of that work comes from 3 games vs the Mutts not hitting well (after their 1st game of the DH outburst), and 4 games vs Boston not hitting well.
Click to expand...

Thought I was right.

24.1 IP for 4 ERs for

the last 3 vs the Mets (who were busy scoring more than 3 runs just twice in 10 games during that period)...

& the 4 vs Boston (3 times they came in to relieve with NYY facing margin deficits, where BOS had no immediate pressure to score).


NYY's pen maybe pitching better than it has previously, but it's reality isn't as good as the 1.27 ERA the above 24.1 inns indicate. Transitory circumstances have clearly made for that output.
 
Last edited:
OAK/SEA considerations

Blanton starts in 08
WHIP 1.92, ERA 7.02 at home vs <.500 teams....... 2-1 to Under
WHIP 1.30, ERA 3.66 at home vs >.499 teams....... 5-4 to Under
WHIP 1.15, ERA 3.74 on the road <.500 teams...... 2-1 to Under
WHIP 1.71, ERA 7.47 on the road >.499 teams...... 3-1 to Over

The 2 spots he's struggled in...
vs good teams on the road - opened a Dog every time, A's 1-3 SU
vs bad teams when at home - opened Fav every time, A's 0-3 SU

The A's are 5-7 SU in his starts for the other 2 categories combined.


(65-37-18 - 65-25-9 - 177-77-24 - 50-32-13)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle on "defense" in their last 24 games they've...

conceded 0-2 runs 11 times ... 9-2 SU, O/U 3-7-1
conceded 3-4 runs 3 times ..... 1-2 SU, O/U 1-2
conceded. 5+ runs 10 times ... 1-9 SU, O/U 6-3-1

So in trying to consider the outcome of their games in recent times, it's simply boiled down to the opposing team's offense vs their starter.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Batista's last 8 starts
WHIP 2.29, ERA 8.15, O/U 7-1, avg 10.50 runs/game

Batista's last 11.2 IP on the road
WHIP 2.91, ERA 10.80, starts: O/U 3-0, opp avg 9.33 runs/game

Batista vs Oakland this season & last where Oakland wasn't shutout
WHIP 1.45, ERA 5.23, O/U 2-3, opp avg 4.60 runs/game


(106-81-32 - 35-34-14 - 93-45-18)
 
Last edited:
Betcrimes, look at his pitch count results. Really not crazy about betting Batista but that and Seattle team total look vey possible.
 
OK.....Tampa ML Boston ML to start the day.....Bad match up for Livan dont expect this game to be close
 
JD, you might make that Tampa ml first half. Ponson looks like he might well be a fade but that does not mean NY is.
 
tuck321 said:
Betcrimes, look at his pitch count results. Really not crazy about betting Batista but that and Seattle team total look vey possible.
Click to expand...

tuck, I plan to add the other side of that game in the same post. I'm still working on it
icon12.gif
 
I agree with NYM.
I am thinking about Astros. Van Benschoten is awful (ERA 10,64 in last games 15,64) and here is chance for Astros lineup to score something. BRIAN MOEHLER is solid lately with ERA 3,95 on the road and in last 3 starts he faced Atlanta, Boston and Texas. Three very dangerous lineups. And his ERA in this three starts is 3,50.
Agree with Phillies I think they will bounce back after yesterday loss. And taking Mulder is dumb gambling. Happ is lefty, he faced NY Mets and he didnt pitch long into the game, but they dint outscored him.
Arizona/Wash-first thought is under 1st 5 ininngs. Nationals have problems with injuries and they struggles in the offense and Owings will have oportunity to show something. I expected much more from him this year. On other side lannan is solid and Arizona don't score too much on the road, even they hit lefties better. Also lean Arizona.
Reds/Cubs-I wont take Cubs for this price. Cueto is very good latly. Last 3 starts ERA 1,96. Only play here is under 1st 5 or whole game.
Marlins/Padres-I disagree here with guys, who want to take Padres. reasons:
-Marlins score 5,6 runs/game on the road
-padres score 3,5 at home (5,7 vs righties)
-Baek vs Arizona didnt allow any run, but Arizona is still Arizona, who can't hit in last games and iif we look 2 games before that at home against Seattle (5 innings-4 runs) and Tigers (6.3 ininngs-6 runs). On other side Olsen played two solid games vs Arizona and Tampa, where he goes 7 ininngs deep into the game, where he allowed 3 runs and 2 runs, what I think is very solid. So we have here one pitcher, who pitched one game good and other who pitched one game bad from last 3.
-bullpens are pretty same (little better ERA from MArlins)
-Marlins score 7,3 runs/game in last 7 days
-padres just 4 runs/game in last 7 days
-Padres when playing on Wednesday3-11
-padres when playing against a team with a winning record 10-26
-OLSEN is 1-1 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.79 and a WHIP of 1.189.
-and one other big reason: Marlins are playing for the playoffs!

-Braves/Dodgers very close game. I will stay away.
-Rockies/Brewers: I don't even have the line yet on my bookie. I will stay away I wont take RL with minus money. Possible play is Brewers (-2).
-TB/NYY: not sure if I will take NYY, right now lean Over 9,5
-Red Sox-stay away. They won games with 1 run....
-lean Indians +141 (line will rise IMO). I will just say BYRD is 9-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.122.
-Baltimore +150. Toronto against left-handed starters 7-17. But concerns me, that Burnett is playnig better right now.
-WS/Royals. I don't know. Bannister is solid at home. And WS are struggling on the road. Maybe the best option is tom take home dog. no idea here.
-Mariners/Athletics. I will stay away.

any comments welcome :cheers:



 
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