Wednesday MLB Discussion

-lean Indians +141 (line will rise IMO). I will just say BYRD is 9-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.122.
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I doubt he's had as worse an offensive lineup behind him for those previous starts than he does now, Peldas. With the kind of losing streak that they're on, combined with where Detroit is at (needing to win at home at all costs with a huge series of road games coming up that will make or break their season), I fail to see anything about Cleveland that's attractive at all.

Last 18 road games, CLE has scored
4 runs or less - 12 times (66.6%)
3 runs or less - 9 times (50.0%)

In 17 Byrd starts this season, Cleveland has given him more than 4 runs of support on 3 occasions (17.6% of the time). In 10 road starts, more than 4 runs support on 1 occasion, and then it was 5 runs.
 
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SportsNut said:
Mulder might literally be 50% of the pitcher he was before he got hurt though . Philly will bounce back I think . Cards again L5 games 1 , 1 , 5 , 1 and 2 runs . The 5 spot was a 3 run 9th off Wood . The game started vs LHP they scored 5 runs off Lilly , Marshall and Hamels . Just dont think Mulder is ML ready at this point . :shake:
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Mulder is like hitting off a friggin tee.....they will smash his ass, I promise. :whip:
 
Wed plays

Yanks AND OVER 10 risking 1.5 to win 4 units

Minny +220 two units

Livan with bad numbers on the road but Boston really struggling to hit righties while Minny boasts a .326 sg vs. RHP over their last 10 games.

Don't need much of a reason to play a team at this price. Boston's middle relief crew is suspect as well.

Passing on Bal tonight. Burnett too much of a wild card (but still lean TOR). BAL pen is as bad as it gets. Can't advocate playing them at all right now. Would lean OVER but Jays struggle with LHP at times. Pass
 
yesterday Detroit wasn't above .500
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Tend to disagree about a play on the Twins. They squandered the lead yesterday, tough to get back into it the next afternoon. Even tougher to do so against Beckett. Ever since gettig hit hard by the O's, he's been solid. 28 ip, 7 er, 22 so & 1 hr. 7 bb not the best, but he's been getting out of jams. One thing jumped off the screen while I was looking at stats.... The Twins results in the 1st5 innings for Livan's last 10 starts. 2 of them were tied after 5 (@col & home vs NYY). In 6 of the other 8 games, the Twins have been losing after 5. The two that they won 1st5 innings? 5-2 at home vs the Indians, & 5-3 at home vs the Diamondbacks, where they were losing 3-0 going into the bottom of the 5th before scoring 5. Hardly in the situation they'll be in today. Here are the 1st5 inning results for Livan on the road

@Col- 0-0

@KC - KC up 6-2. (Minny went on to win)

@ChiSox- Chi up 7-0

@Clev- Indians up 10-1


In Livan's last 3 road starts, he's been outscored 23-3 in the 1st 5 innings! Initially I was a bit worried about backing the Red Sox in any way given their recent hitting woes, but these stats have me ready to jump on the Nation -.5-150 1st 5 innings. Possibly parlay with Sheets -.5-150 1st5. 2 to win 3.48 not a bad payout on 2 home teams both laying -210+ @ home with the clear advantage on the bump.
 
Houston and Pitt are both in the Central division. That means they get to watch the Brewers, Cubs, and Cards. JVB has a career era of 9.04. This is the worst era of all pitchers with at least 75 innings pitch currently in baseball. The way I read the stat it may have been for all time but not sure. Pitt is 1-7 vs the Yankees. They played the Yankees 2 games earlier this season and lost the second 10-0. They are 3-14 in first game of series after a win. Taking a chance with Houston today.
 
Leaning Houston as well, maybe tt over 5.


Leaning hard on the Rays -.5 1st5+135. If you ask me, that seems to be a pretty good value for those who think Ponson gets hit.
 
No ump no decision yet. Yesterday Edmonds played so I made a very Small bet on the Reds. Cubs are good at home Wednesdays but depending on ump may make a Much larger bet on the Reds today. Dislike dealing in maybes but wanted my drift out early here.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Thought I was right.

24.1 IP for 4 ERs for

the last 3 vs the Mets (who were busy scoring more than 3 runs just twice in 10 games during that period)...

& the 4 vs Boston (3 times they came in to relieve with NYY facing margin deficits, where BOS had no immediate pressure to score).


NYY's pen maybe pitching better than it has previously, but it's reality isn't as good as the 1.27 ERA the above 24.1 inns indicate. Transitory circumstances have clearly made for that output.
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Actually if you look at NYYs pen for a good 2 months they themselves show the extreme trend. Would say 85% of the time they are unhittable but when they suck they suck to a scary degree . :shake:
 
Boston 19-10 in day games Minny 13-14

Beckett 19-5 in 28 day starts for Boston with opp BAA in the 222 range ...
 
Livan .367 BAA in the day , .385 BAA away and .359 BAA on normal rest compared to .293 on extended rest

Still I prefer the under due to BC research putting me over the edge.
 
I went TB 1st5+100, tt o4.5. Also Beckett-.5/Sheets -.5 both 1st5 innings 2 units to win 3.48. Team total o5 Boston.
 
If anyone is watching the Yankee game you will see why Ponson has never been consistent in the majors and has really regressed in the past few years despite solid velocity . Care to guess what I see ??? Really why the guy despite his behavior issues and severe struggles past few seasons continues to get chances is his velocity is solid so he looks like he can be useful when you see him throw .

Well his basic problem is what I see at an alarming rate today from alot of pitchers in the major leagues . He basically has one pitch which he can throw for strikes . Fortunately for him its pretty solid pitch a low 90's 2 seamer with good movement (90-92 range) . Being he was in STL I wouldnt be suprised if that was Dave Duncan's doing as that's what he tries to make all his pitchers (two seam , sinking fastball pitchers) . If you notice nearly every strike he throws is the 2 seamer moving down and away to LHB and down and in to RHB . He tries going inside to LHB and usually misses off the plate . He threw one solid cutter (ala Greg Maddux) which came back but wasnt called a strike it was close ( just threw another to Carlos Pena that was called a strike) . You saw he worked Hinske in and plunk him in the knee and also get 0-2 and fail to put him away . Saw a couple decent overhand sliders (almost curveballs) but only remember one being called a strike . With that he seems to be only able to place it IN to LH and away to RH . So he is very patterned . Very easy to figure out what and really where to expect the ball. Basically his flaw is basically he is a one pitch pitcher which he really can throw in just one location . He doesnt command both sides of the plate the few times he has today you see how much sharper he looks . Its easy to sit on him and what ML doesnt want to be able to sit on a 89-92 MPH fastball .

Its been a long time since he had his breakthrough year in 2003 which he followed up by becoming worse then he was before . I am sure the off field problems helped but I think a big reason why he is stuck in this rut is because despite a solid 2 seamer with good velocity he cant command much else consistently or command both sides of the plate consistently. If your LH you have to be looking down and away . To his credit he is trying to go inside and starting to have some success as the game progresses . However when he cant you can see why its very easy to hit him hard. If your RHB your looking middle of the plate in and if he misses you do what Longoria did in the 2nd inning . Open your hips quickly and smoke the ball down the 3rd base line .

Really he is pretty young still if his DOB is correct . He will be 32 in Nov so basically he is the same age as Dan Giese . If he can learn to throw a 2nd pitch consistently for a strike he could be a decent MLB I think. He does throw a 4 seamer when he needs to locate a fastball for a strike usually away to RHB and the comeback fastball inside to LHB . If he can throw his slider / curve over consistently he get them from sitting on him and zoning him out . Not sure a change for him would be that effective but probably would ve LHBs .

Again something I wonder if the Yankee organization is conscious of as it is so obvious to me . This is the 1st time since he came back to NYY I actually watched him pitch most times the game is on and I am looking at my laptop more then the TV.

I am not saying the Yankees have something because Ponson is a loose cannon . We still dont exactly what happened in Texas . What I do like is his stuff is that bad and he does not give in . He battles with MOB. I think he is a much better option then Darrell Rasner . The reason why he gets smoked is basically good lineups are going to make him pay for putting MOB and being a one pitch pitcher . Teams that arent hitting well tend to let him off the hook.

Funny when Yanks threw out Upton I said damn no one mentions they bailed out the TB #4 hitter Pena with an 0-2 count giving him new life. Of course he allows a leadoff solo HR to Pena . On what ? The comeback fastball which got way to much of the plate .

:cheers:
 
For the AROD discussion :

Perfect example is his last atbat of what I was saying about always trying to be the hero. I dont mean exactly like I say it but he doesnt ever try to do just a little.

He gets to 3-1 count which he often works himself into good hitters count and fails . Big spot when you have a 1-0 game your SP is doing all he can and your the supposed best hitter in the game and you can open the game up a bit with a hit . The 3-1 pitch was a good pitchers pitch I was happy to see him take it . However full count he does what he does way to often and that is swing at a high fastball that is probably a ball , almost a definetly a ball. Everyone knows if you have a good fastball throw it just below the letters to ARod he goes for it everytime. So he swings wildly as if he was trying to hit it to Mars when he should be focused on taking the ball to RF the whole atbat . He never does that . He swings wildy at every single pitch and in every single situation. Its frustrating to watch from someone so talented . Thats exactly why he is a poor clutch hitter despite his immense talent . He nevers tries to just hit it hard somewhere but rather out of the park every swing . He kills the offense doing that . What happened to hit it hard make up the middle or try and take the pitchers head off with a line drive ??

I see it so often it again aggravates me . That no one pulls his billion dollar ass over and explains this to him. If I was Kevin Long I would make a video of every atbat this season (or his Yankee career -time consuming) and make him watch himself with RISP . He will be embarrassed at not only how often he fails but how poorly he looks doing it repeatedly striking out and hitting weak grounders or popups .

Sad to watch ...again memo to NYY !

Just look at Manny Ramirez last night when his team was down ? He hits a 3 run Hr off a 95 MPH fastball that was up and somewhat in but he swing was very controlled . Today down 3-0 he doubles in a run and now up 4-3 he doubles in another . What use is Arod if he cant do this ?? Manny is a much better hitter then ARod even if the stats dont show it clearly . His lackadasical attitude is what holds him back from recognized as probably the best hitter / run producer in the game.
 
HereWeGo : If your out there still have to clean out my PM's might have 1 space left now but I will be playing SD and LAD today as per our last discussion . Good Luck hope u had the PODS yesterday and think we both went with ATL as well (nice call BTW) .

3:35 PM

Playing SD ML for a strong play might add some RL.

Primary reason FLA 's overall play since they swept @ Wash a team they own and the worse in the majors they have lost 6 of 7 away series including 2 Four game sets . They managed to win 2 of 3 @ Seattle defeating Silva and Dickey when they were terrible .

Otherwise lost 3 or 4 @ COL . Lost 2 of 3 @ Oakland (Sea series in between here) , lost 2 of 3 @ TB , lost 3 of 4 @ Atlanta , lost 2 of 3 @ Philly , lost 2 of 3 at NYM , and were swept @ Cincy . Which is 6 wins in 23 games plus the 2-1 vs Seattle so 8wins vs 18 losses last 26 away games also plus the split here so far so 9-19 L28 away .

At NYM the SP in the win was Ricky Nolasco , at Philly the SP in the win was Ricky Nolasco , at ATL the SP in the win was Mark Hendrickson (v Tom Glavine) but FLA trailed 4-2 to start the 9th as Acosta imploded , at TB the SP in the win was Ricky Nolasco , at SEA Miller defeated Silva and Tucker defeated Dickey both times FLA scored early and led first , at Oakland the SP in the win was Ricky Nolasco , @ Col in game 4 to avoid the sweep the SP in the win was Mark Hendrickson who was chased after 4 innings and @ SD this series you guessed the SP in the win was Ricky Nolasco .

So Nolasco was the SP in 5 of the 9 road wins for FLA. The Seattle 2 wins were basically large part due to the opposing SP stinking it up early and then Hendrickson started the other two wins which a 9th inning rally saved him a loss and the other game he left after 4 innings .

Basically minus Nolasco they have not had many chances to win games by there SP. Olsen has been shelled his last 2 away starts and believe lost 4 straight away only defeating Wash twice and Milw .

Fla is 12-9 in day games with a .311 OBP. Baek is a mystery I agree but his time in SD has been 3 excellent starts and 3 bad starts . So he is capable of a good outing and when he is on he has been very tough. Will he be on vs such a good lineup ? Who knows but SD pen is also better IMO as well .

Now SD 19 games under 500 and just ending a long losing streak at home is 12-14 in day games meaning they have played better ball in this spot . They have hit the same avg and OBP wise but score about 1/2 run more but also pitched better in day games allowing less then 4 runs per.

SD hit Andrew Miller a LHSP from the get go and Miller has been fairly decent so far and was good vs FLA earlier. SD has infused some new young players into there lineup and Headley was the guy who was huge yesterday .

So think SD takes this series as Olsen is struggling and SD has played better IMO l5 games or so if you look at the Zona series .....
 
Rivera's 1st pitch -

Longoria swings .....remember I commented how teams were jumping in his pitch lately . They tried again so its definetly something they saw and has got passed around IMO
 
Past 2 now. Have e-mailed Covers and called them on the phone. On the phone they assured me they would get the ump info out immediately. Right
 
Looking hard at Cubs RL. Check out Zambrano's July stats below:

<table class="tablehead" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="colhead"><td>By Day/Month</td> <td align="right">ERA</td> <td align="right">W</td> <td align="right">L</td> <td align="right">SV</td> <td align="right">SVO</td> <td align="right">G</td> <td align="right">GS</td> <td align="right">CG</td> <td align="right">IP</td> <td align="right">H</td> <td align="right">R</td> <td align="right">ER</td> <td align="right">HR</td> <td align="right">BB</td> <td align="right">SO</td> <td align="right">AVG</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="right"> <td align="left" width="115">April</td><td>5.16</td><td>4</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>17</td><td>17</td><td>0</td><td>99.1</td><td>96</td><td>60</td><td>57</td><td>20</td><td>56</td><td>90</td><td>.253</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="right"> <td align="left" width="115">August</td><td>3.83</td><td>6</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>17</td><td>17</td><td>0</td><td>110.1</td><td>101</td><td>55</td><td>47</td><td>9</td><td>45</td><td>93</td><td>.240</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="right"> <td align="left" width="115">July</td><td>2.55</td><td>13</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>17</td><td>17</td><td>0</td><td>116.1</td><td>80</td><td>34</td><td>33</td><td>7</td><td>55</td><td>108</td><td>.194</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Also worth noting, Zambarno is batting .360 this year and adds an extra bat to the lineup, with some occasional pop. This will be the 2nd time the Cubs see Cueto, who gives up around 3.2 BB/ 9 IP. The Cubs are now number 1 in BB/G at over 4. They do K a lot, which could allow Cueto to bail himself out, but I feel like they will get to him pretty good tonight. Cubs hit righties .281/.804 OPS. They average 6.4RPG at home and hit over .300 with an OPS pushing .900. 34-10 home record vs Cincy's 17-29 away record.
 
Starting to doubt I will ever get ump info to help or hurt picks so brief run thru of my thinking regarding the Reds. 2 negatives. Zambrano is on 4 days rest which he likes and Cubs have been quite good at home on Wednesdays which is the only reason I am only playing first 5 ml and plus .5.
Why play? At home Zambrano is 4-6 lifetime vs the Reds. Actually 2-5 last 7 at home. Many players on the current Reds team have hit him well. Their pen is in great shape and currently would say Cueto is staff ace. After rehab Carlos faced the Cards a team he always dominates and did the job. After this game he first plays in the All Star Game and then immediately plays at Houston. He is 8-2 at Houston but was shelled there last trip so that is a must win game to him. This is inbetween. I see a real chance he plays bad today. There are some other angles but the sad truth is without ump input this could have no play. Going for 1 unit here.
 
This card tonight really doesn't interest me at all so many unknowns with pitchers, or huge home favorites. I really can't find a play without forcing one, Tigers RL maybe all 7 of the games between Det/Cle have been decided by 2 runs or more. Worried Cleveland has lost 9 in a row now and not betting against the streak.
 
2 of the guys that have hit Zambrano the hardest are not really playing as they used to: Griff and Encarnacion. Griff is 50 pts below his career BA mark and Encarnacion is 40 below last year's mark. You can't even add them up to get .500. The BvP angle certainly does scare me, as Dunn has a bunch of HRs and even David Ross' only 2 hits have been HRs. Both of those guys' averages are crap, but HRs hurt too. This Cincy team is just not hitting all that great this year and will definitely need the longball to get runs across IMO.

Back to the career vs present aspect, look at Big Z's two performances this year against them. 2-0 11 H in 15 IP, with only 2 ER. 1 one those was home and one was the road.
 
big drop on the Phils ml - that screams to me the due factor is being bet re: their home losing streak. Not good for Phils lovers imo.
 
SN, i'm on the Nats, Royals, Phils, and Dodgers tonight. Laid of Diego as I knew they'd revert to their old ways this afternoon. Thinkin about the Reds....
 
I don't know much about Happ, but he does have 6 BB in 8 career IP. If he does not have control, STL will eat his lunch. They are a very patient team that does not K a lot. I know Mulder sucks, but some info on Happ would be required for me in order to back Philly here. Probably a no play or an over.
 
mlb gamecast says rain in Philly - that could render the idea of starters having a pronounced effect on the game as useless
 
They have it up. Cueto had one strong start with him as ump but nothing with him umping Zambrano. cerrtainly does not hurt the play but no increase.
 
Big Herm said:
I don't know much about Happ, but he does have 6 BB in 8 career IP. If he does not have control, STL will eat his lunch. They are a very patient team that does not K a lot. I know Mulder sucks, but some info on Happ would be required for me in order to back Philly here. Probably a no play or an over.
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Good points, and I hate the thought of actually backing a chuck manuel-managed team...In fact, I just threw up in my mouth a little bit...

Him and Yost just fucking scare me...
 
can someone tell me how bad this rain is? One of my books will pay out on an Over if it hits, full stop - A game of less than 8.5 innings doesnt matter to their rules (which I think is sane, except for this loop-hole, lol. Their rules for paying out on an Under are the same as everywhere else). If this game has a good chance to not get in fully, then I have to take advantage of their rules. I either get a refund or a payout in the instance of a shortened game.
 
Houston didnt waste time 3-0

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=top><TD>Blum homered to right, Berkman and Lee scored.</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=top><TD>Lee walked, Berkman to second.</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=top><TD>Berkman hit by pitch.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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neither did Cleveland, 3-0
 
Last night Pitt was my big bet, tonight it's Houston first 5....hope they keep rollin. Also playing the Cubs RL, the shitbag Dodgers, Brecrew RL.
 
HereWeGo said:
SN, i'm on the Nats, Royals, Phils, and Dodgers tonight. Laid of Diego as I knew they'd revert to their old ways this afternoon. Thinkin about the Reds....
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I wish I knew that about SD ! Cost me a bunch .

Didnt take a side at Wash went over for some reason. The only RH Nats have hit of any quality is Owings and he has been medicore for awhile . Lannan struggles at home for some reason as opponents avg 6 runs per in his starts . Played Philly (adding LAD and KC later ) . Also played Cle 1st 5 ML and ML , Under 8.5 Tor and under 4.5 1st 5 inn plus Mets ML ...probably do Milw -1.5 as well. :cheers:GL bro
 
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