Wednesday MLB discussion

[Gyno]

:cheers3:

 

[bluedevilboy]

I can't bet on baseball anymore, just gonna save my money for College football season. Best thing to bet is Euro 2016 or champions league

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Well, certainly we can do better than this...

Played Jays/Rays over 8 (-110). Diaz behind the plate, and Rays hit LHP well. Not crazy about plays overs at Trop or in getaway day games, but like this spot and match-up (and ump) for an over.

Played Red/Sox Tribe over 7' (-115). Strong wind (27 mph) expected to CF, close to 50% chance of rain throughout game (don't have numbers with me, but last year, games with rain delays apparently hit at a high rate), over ump (B Welke). Tribe home games were very high-scoring late last season (over 21-8-1 last 30 home games).

Played Nats/Braves FF under 4 (-115). Decent chance of rain in second half of game, so went FF rather than FG. Kulpa is a great under ump, Braves lineup is completely punchless other than Freeman, and while Stras had some bad outings against Braves in 2014, he was great against them last season. Bud Norris? Well, i'm just hoping he can work around the Nats lineup a couple of times and not give up 4 by himself (Kulpa should help that).

Lean Giants/Brewers under 8, Rockies, Marlins -1 RL. Was liking Phils/Reds under 8 based upon ump (Randazzo) and pitchers, but weather there is ridiculous (25 mph wind, 75+% chance of rain throughout game) and there almost certainly will be rain delays. As a general rule, will try to avoid playing unders when i expect a rain delay, at least during the portion of the game in which i'm taking the under.

 

[nbafan88]

oh shit sorry... didnt see this thread

 

[nbafan88]

I can't bet on baseball anymore, just gonna save my money for College football season. Best thing to bet is Euro 2016 or champions league

just bet every day game over in Coors and every over in zona w/ the roof open and you should be in the black by the end of the season

 

[kdog]

Get away day game in Milwaukee where the Brewers STINK. They won't lose all 162 though. Small Milw/U9 parlay at 3.125/1

Interesting game in Pittsburgh with Nicasio having been lights out this spring bumping Vogelsong to the pen. Yeah it's just spring training but Ray Searage has a pretty good track record with guys like that. Pittsburgh at the small price.

Washington probably wins but the only way I'm laying -200 on the road would be in a for shits & giggles parlay. Too soon for those.

Don't know all that much about Maeda but Cashner was pretty bad last year and San Diego is pretty bad overall so Dodgers here.

Carrasco is tough but Buccholz is too when he's healthy and Cleveland still can't fuckin' hit. Boston +118 or so.

It's a new season & Jose Fernandez is healthy. Bet him til he isn't. Miami -150 whatever.

 

[nbafan88]

milwaukee is home tomorrow... not a getaway day

 

[GWarner27]

Bill welke is an under ump, you're thinking Tim

...and rain now really makes me worried about a Boston play

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Bill welke is an under ump, you're thinking Tim

...and rain now really makes me worried about a Boston play

A couple of years ago, I'd have agreed with you GW, but B Welke went on a major over binge last year (18-11 OU overall with a big streak in there at some point as i recall; and of course i realize that OU numbers aren't the entire story but i watched a handful of his games and noticed his zone seemed smaller). The technology that MLB uses analyzes these guys 100 different ways and provides constant feedback about their strike zone, so they're constantly reacting and considering constructive criticism. Maybe the pendulum swings back this year on Bill Welke, i dunno, but at least based upon my watching of his games last season, he definitely seemed to have a tighter zone in 2015 than in prior years.

All that said, I've been coming to these threads long enough to know better than to think that i'll change your mind (you understandably need to see it with your own two eyes), but that's my thought process, flawed though it may be.

As for rain in Cleveland, I'm about 10 miles west of downtown right now, and weather here moves west-to-east 90+% of the time (and is right now). Rain stopped about two hours ago, and while the skies are cloudy, things are looking promising for the game to start on time and without a delay. So, you're looking good until at least the second inning!

 

[dudleysdad]

Anyone with some info on Finnegan for cincy?
i lean my Phillies with Nola

 

[kdog]

milwaukee is home tomorrow... not a getaway day

For San Francisco it was.

 

[GWarner27]

A couple of years ago, I'd have agreed with you GW, but B Welke went on a major over binge last year (18-11 OU overall with a big streak in there at some point as i recall; and of course i realize that OU numbers aren't the entire story but i watched a handful of his games and noticed his zone seemed smaller). The technology that MLB uses analyzes these guys 100 different ways and provides constant feedback about their strike zone, so they're constantly reacting and considering constructive criticism. Maybe the pendulum swings back this year on Bill Welke, i dunno, but at least based upon my watching of his games last season, he definitely seemed to have a tighter zone in 2015 than in prior years.

All that said, I've been coming to these threads long enough to know better than to think that i'll change your mind (you understandably need to see it with your own two eyes), but that's my thought process, flawed though it may be.

As for rain in Cleveland, I'm about 10 miles west of downtown right now, and weather here moves west-to-east 90+% of the time (and is right now). Rain stopped about two hours ago, and while the skies are cloudy, things are looking promising for the game to start on time and without a delay. So, you're looking good until at least the second inning!

Thanks for this, I will watch him more closely now to see if he indeed changed his stripes