Turkey Week just about in the books -- What did we learn?
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
The thing that I have learned the most this year is to just throw all of the "sharp" stuff out the window. You know, "sharps" will bet the number not the team. "Sharps" will never lay points on the road and will never lay more than 7 at all. Its all out the window this year. The bad teams are so bad that you can consistently fade them. Sharps wanna bet the Browns every week because based on some statistical model they have they are getting some value. Screw all that. Browns suck, they lose every week. Teams like the Eagles and Pats can cover any spread. Shitty qbs are shitty qbs at home or road.
Pittsburgh is a flawed team but as long as AB is healthy they can win anywhere against anyone.
Detroit is a pretender (I believed in them this week but their gameplan was awful. They aren't making the playoffs)
Chargers still have an uphill battle but they are absolutely one of the best 6 in the AFC and should be in the playoffs. They can hang with anyone. Tennessee will be blown out if they make it.
Falcons are gonna be a hella tough wild card team
KC needs to make a QB change now. Mahomes could be awful and not ready, but at least he gives them something.
Seattle isn't going far this year. Rams on the other hand with a very impressive win. Cant wait to see Seahawks/Philly this week and Rams/Philly next week.
Blaine Gabbert makes the Cardinals more bettable than Palmer or Stanton. I can't believe I wrote that.
Denver is awful and it makes me happy... with their stubbornness and refusal to get Kaepernick when he probably makes them a wild card team. Elway deserves this.
Pittsburgh is a flawed team but as long as AB is healthy they can win anywhere against anyone.
Detroit is a pretender (I believed in them this week but their gameplan was awful. They aren't making the playoffs)
Chargers still have an uphill battle but they are absolutely one of the best 6 in the AFC and should be in the playoffs. They can hang with anyone. Tennessee will be blown out if they make it.
Falcons are gonna be a hella tough wild card team
KC needs to make a QB change now. Mahomes could be awful and not ready, but at least he gives them something.
Seattle isn't going far this year. Rams on the other hand with a very impressive win. Cant wait to see Seahawks/Philly this week and Rams/Philly next week.
Blaine Gabbert makes the Cardinals more bettable than Palmer or Stanton. I can't believe I wrote that.
Denver is awful and it makes me happy... with their stubbornness and refusal to get Kaepernick when he probably makes them a wild card team. Elway deserves this.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Rivers is playing very well. GB coach failed last night with 58 yard fg try to change momentum. HCs in NFL should need to take cue from Pederson and Ram coach. Stay aggressive, play to win, but you have to be briliant. Unfortunately, most HC are afraid of their own shadow and lack dynamic thinking. Eagles and Rams for the next 5 years in NFC.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Belicheat echo’d this in his presser. Basically called the rePorter a fool.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Football success of course requires terrific players, but they will not succeed without brilliant coaching. HS, College, NFL success requires a true leader, most are so far from ready. I would trust Steelers more if Haley was HC. If not for Ben, Tomlin would be gone long ago.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
The time for playing around is done, a lot of good teams really went to town using their best players, period.
Phil Rivers throws it 14 times to Keenan Allen because the Cowboys can't stop it.
Matt Ryan throws it 15 times to Julio because the Bucs can't stop it.
In 59 plays the Bengals give Joe Mixon and AJ Green 34 targets/touches.
Ertz and Blount get 27 targets/touches because the Bears can't stop it.
Bell and Brown get 46 targets/touches are you kidding me!
Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara touches the ball just 11 times in a competitive game and shines every single time. Yet still only 11 touches. Tavon freaking Austin even got nine looks for crying out loud.
Len Fournette touches the ball just 15 times in a one score game. Meanwhile Bortles 18-33 for 160 and a pick. Wish I knew what Doug Marrone was thinking.
The Titans run everything by committee and barely escape Indy. Titans are a slum lord version of the Patriots. The sum of their parts is always less than the individual pieces.
The exceptions were:
the Vikings, who are the quietest 9-2 team in the league. They seem to have a bit of everything, good run game, good receivers, good D front, a shutdown corner. You just wonder if they're going to screw around at the QB position and upset their chemistry.
the Seahawks, who revolve entirely around the magic of Russell Wilson at this point.
the Patriots, who let their maestro at QB run the tightest ship in the game.
and the Panthers, who pulled one out without much from Cam. They are another team that just keeps winning.
Rams are dynamic but they can't be trusted until they jettison the Tavon Austin crap.
Phil Rivers throws it 14 times to Keenan Allen because the Cowboys can't stop it.
Matt Ryan throws it 15 times to Julio because the Bucs can't stop it.
In 59 plays the Bengals give Joe Mixon and AJ Green 34 targets/touches.
Ertz and Blount get 27 targets/touches because the Bears can't stop it.
Bell and Brown get 46 targets/touches are you kidding me!
Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara touches the ball just 11 times in a competitive game and shines every single time. Yet still only 11 touches. Tavon freaking Austin even got nine looks for crying out loud.
Len Fournette touches the ball just 15 times in a one score game. Meanwhile Bortles 18-33 for 160 and a pick. Wish I knew what Doug Marrone was thinking.
The Titans run everything by committee and barely escape Indy. Titans are a slum lord version of the Patriots. The sum of their parts is always less than the individual pieces.
The exceptions were:
the Vikings, who are the quietest 9-2 team in the league. They seem to have a bit of everything, good run game, good receivers, good D front, a shutdown corner. You just wonder if they're going to screw around at the QB position and upset their chemistry.
the Seahawks, who revolve entirely around the magic of Russell Wilson at this point.
the Patriots, who let their maestro at QB run the tightest ship in the game.
and the Panthers, who pulled one out without much from Cam. They are another team that just keeps winning.
Rams are dynamic but they can't be trusted until they jettison the Tavon Austin crap.
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
The Vikings really should come out and say "keenum is our guy for the rest of the SEASON". What you said is completely correct, a qb controversy could shake things up and not in a positive way. Keenum may have a bad game (I think it comes next week to be honest) and they need to make it clear that one bad game isn't going to change anything. You can't have some of the locker room calling for Teddy and the fans calling for him...Keenum has got them this far, and I think they have to roll with him and let the team know hes the guy for now.
Now if he rolls off 2-3 bad starts in a row, then you can change things. As an eagles fan, I hope there is a locker room split and I hope it derails their season.
Now if he rolls off 2-3 bad starts in a row, then you can change things. As an eagles fan, I hope there is a locker room split and I hope it derails their season.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Get ready for regression to the mean.
brewers888
Chicken Little
Exactly why I have been crushed the last few weeks. I am one of those dopes that seems to bet on the Browns, Niners, and Bears every week.
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
not criticizing you at all, but this is something we have to adjust to. I was on the browns like 7 times so far this year and they keep killing me. So this week I said screw it and bet the Bengals and it hit. I was on the bears the last 2 weeks and was lucky to go 0-1-1, so I laid off yesterday. These bad teams are just so bad that unless we start to see lines in the 15-20 range, theres no reason to back them. In fact, just keep teasing the teams playing these guys...they aren't winning any games.
One way to looks at it is if you fade the browns, or the niners, or the bears, and god forbid you lose, you can probably fade them again the following week and get your loot back. None of these teams are gonna go more than 2-3 weeks without being blown out of the water
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
The Bruce Arians has reached Blaine Gabberts career talk is getting louder amongst media guys
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
The lack of elite QB talent, not even in the NFL but in the college ranks, is certainly alarming. Teams like Philly, Houston, LA even Dallas are gonna have a huge edge going forward the next few years. Even the "top" guys this year I don't think are anything special. It could end up being a problem for the league and games may not be nearly as much fun and therefore viewership could fall.
Of course, maybe Rosen and Darnold are great and I'm big on Mayfield so who knows
Of course, maybe Rosen and Darnold are great and I'm big on Mayfield so who knows
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
ive seen a bunch of articles saying the opposite
saying this young QB bunch is the best in a long time
Winston, Mariota, Carr, Wentz, Goff, Watson, Dak, Luck is still only 28, Russ is 28
maybe none of them ends up being a Rodgers level, but QB play league wide is higher than in the past
people are a bad judge of anecdotally comparing now to the past in almost everything because certain things stick out
go look at a list of QBs from 2006, 1996, 1986 etc and compare it to now, or even just the 10 years in front of it. It gets better all the time
saying this young QB bunch is the best in a long time
Winston, Mariota, Carr, Wentz, Goff, Watson, Dak, Luck is still only 28, Russ is 28
maybe none of them ends up being a Rodgers level, but QB play league wide is higher than in the past
people are a bad judge of anecdotally comparing now to the past in almost everything because certain things stick out
go look at a list of QBs from 2006, 1996, 1986 etc and compare it to now, or even just the 10 years in front of it. It gets better all the time
P-Unit
Beacon of Calmness
this.
It's OL play that has fallen. dramatically. Look at the Vikes. They get a decent OL and Case looks like the 2nd coming of Fran Tarkenton (Fran was a great QB back in the day for you young whippersnappers in the forum haha).
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
With 53-man rosters you need good coaching, period.
Pats, love 'em or hate 'em are a machine. Smartest team in the league with a cunning and also smart coach, great mix.
Pats figured the talent pool in college is diluted and they 'draft' the league. So clever.
Not sure where they'll be when Brady retires in 4 years though after Tommy's deal with the devil expires and he starts his cult.
Birds just rolling dudes right now and they don't fuck folks around with the spread, team plays to win and then some. They can be trusted.
Pittsburgh on the other hand can't be trusted. Dodgy team, dodgy coach.
Kamara was easily the best find in the draft.
Saints are not a team you'd want to face in a one and done playoff game but that defense is overrated, especially the secondary.
Bolts win their division. Better defense, better QB over their counterparts.
Alex Smith played above his means in the first 6 or so games of the season, his regression to the mean is now swift and brutal.
The time to look to the future is now Fat Andy.
Rams in good hands.
Doncos not so much and I don't feel sorry for them one bit.
Dirty Birds will be fine once they stop shitting themselves last in games. You can smell the self doubt.
As pointed out, the Hags go as Russell goes.
Panthers are Superbowl sleepers.
Not writing off the Bungles just yet. Too much talent. Oakland there as well somewhat.
Dallas, Green Bay, Houston, Tampa, Zona, Jets, Denver all done.
Pats, love 'em or hate 'em are a machine. Smartest team in the league with a cunning and also smart coach, great mix.
Pats figured the talent pool in college is diluted and they 'draft' the league. So clever.
Not sure where they'll be when Brady retires in 4 years though after Tommy's deal with the devil expires and he starts his cult.
Birds just rolling dudes right now and they don't fuck folks around with the spread, team plays to win and then some. They can be trusted.
Pittsburgh on the other hand can't be trusted. Dodgy team, dodgy coach.
Kamara was easily the best find in the draft.
Saints are not a team you'd want to face in a one and done playoff game but that defense is overrated, especially the secondary.
Bolts win their division. Better defense, better QB over their counterparts.
Alex Smith played above his means in the first 6 or so games of the season, his regression to the mean is now swift and brutal.
The time to look to the future is now Fat Andy.
Rams in good hands.
Doncos not so much and I don't feel sorry for them one bit.
Dirty Birds will be fine once they stop shitting themselves last in games. You can smell the self doubt.
As pointed out, the Hags go as Russell goes.
Panthers are Superbowl sleepers.
Not writing off the Bungles just yet. Too much talent. Oakland there as well somewhat.
Dallas, Green Bay, Houston, Tampa, Zona, Jets, Denver all done.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
OL is huge, most college offenses going spread or just shotgun heavy
so hard to judge OL coming in to the league, and they arent being developed in College
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Saints were missing Lattimore. He is prolly defensive rookie of year. Only way to beat/ finish saints is with stake. Mc Vay understands because he is prodigy
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Chargets have great front 4 if not 7, a boss at qb, but their HC is not ready imo. He seems happy to be there, hope Im wrong. Rivers deserves better, hell Mike Mccoy was fired from Denver last week, he was terrible in SD
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
For reference, 1996 QBs that started at least 8 games (guys 26 and under in bold). Interesting how many names are familiar. For the young guys I added the age they last started at least half a season.
Elway, 36 13-2
Favre, 27 13-3
Young, 35 9-3
K Collins, 24 9-3 (36)
Bledsoe, 24 11-5 (33)
Tomczak, 34 10-5
Aikman, 30 10-5
Ty Detmer, 29 7-4
Brad Johnson, 28 5-3
Kelly, 36 8-5
Bono, 34 8-5
Brunell, 26 9-7 (36)
Frerotte, 25 9-7 (37)
Marino, 35 7-6
Hostetler, 35 7-6
Humphries, 31 7-6
Moon, 40 4-4
Krieg, 38 6-6
Harbaugh, 33 7-7
Chandler, 31 6-6
Kent Graham, 28 4-4
Jeff Blake, 26 8-8 (33)
Tony Banks, 23 5-8 (28)
Esiason, 35 3-5
Dave Brown, 26 6-10 (26)
Dilfer, 24 6-10 (33)
Scott Mitchell, 28 4-10
Vinny, 33 4-12
Hebert, 36 3-10
Rick Mirer, 26 2-7 (26)
Everett, 33 3-12
Elway, 36 13-2
Favre, 27 13-3
Young, 35 9-3
K Collins, 24 9-3 (36)
Bledsoe, 24 11-5 (33)
Tomczak, 34 10-5
Aikman, 30 10-5
Ty Detmer, 29 7-4
Brad Johnson, 28 5-3
Kelly, 36 8-5
Bono, 34 8-5
Brunell, 26 9-7 (36)
Frerotte, 25 9-7 (37)
Marino, 35 7-6
Hostetler, 35 7-6
Humphries, 31 7-6
Moon, 40 4-4
Krieg, 38 6-6
Harbaugh, 33 7-7
Chandler, 31 6-6
Kent Graham, 28 4-4
Jeff Blake, 26 8-8 (33)
Tony Banks, 23 5-8 (28)
Esiason, 35 3-5
Dave Brown, 26 6-10 (26)
Dilfer, 24 6-10 (33)
Scott Mitchell, 28 4-10
Vinny, 33 4-12
Hebert, 36 3-10
Rick Mirer, 26 2-7 (26)
Everett, 33 3-12
Last edited:
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Pats at Steelers on Dec. 17 will decide the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. Winner will get home field through the playoffs.
Pats win on the 17th and they're as good as in the SB. Steelers won't go to Foxborough and win in January. Steelers win on the 17th and they've got a good shot to play in Minneapolis.
Pats win on the 17th and they're as good as in the SB. Steelers won't go to Foxborough and win in January. Steelers win on the 17th and they've got a good shot to play in Minneapolis.
brewers888
Chicken Little
brewers888
Chicken Little
Totally agree regarding the Chargers coaching staff. I was shocked when Anthony Lynn got the job. Hard to believe that being a running backs coach under Rex Ryan prepares a guy to be a head coach in the league.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
There won't be much regression, talent pool not deep enough coupled with shitty coaching.
The latter is exceptionally bad though this season.
Cream will continue to rise. Will be up to the books to measure the spreads accordingly.
Time for the regression... just like earlier in the year...
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Last night marked the 2nd time all season the hook has come into play on a 7.5 line for the home fave.
Prior to that home faves of 7.5 were 5-1 ATS winning by an average of around 15 points.
Best to avoid primetime games unless a situation like the 'circadian' or something is present.
Both primetime games this week were a little questionable.
Prior to that home faves of 7.5 were 5-1 ATS winning by an average of around 15 points.
Best to avoid primetime games unless a situation like the 'circadian' or something is present.
Both primetime games this week were a little questionable.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Just like any free agent the choice won't be theirs...honestly I'm not sure I'd even be happy with it but he could thrive under Arians
Fitz signed the extension for a year with the option of retiring, highly doubt he sticks while the Cards are working in a rook
Similar threads
