Turkey Day Discussion

Leaning Buff, NO, Chic ATS. Though hard to go against Dall on Tgiving as the tend to play very well on turkey say
 
Driskell is frisky....if Lions get some other guys back from injury I'll probably be on them at + money
 
Driskel hammy injury is a bummer. Even if he plays his running should be limited. I think the Bears D will provide some short fields for Mitchell and he'll make enough plays to win and cover.

Bills/Boys great matchup. I think Allen makes enough plays to keep it close I took 7.5.

Falcons are banged up and stink again + Saints revenge. Lay it or at least tease it.
 
How are the Bills going to score? Dallas D is really good. But short week off a grueling game. I like 1H under and full game under
 
Mitch shouldn’t be favored on the road against anyone even if I’m the QB. Give me Blough and 5+ at home on turkey day anytime and I’ll pay to be wrong. (This is all said as a Bears homer)
 
That Bears line is getting absolutely ridiculous. Also seem to be against the consensus here but went over in the cowgirls game. I expect zeke to go nuts and I think cowgirls secondary can be had.
 
I don't think the Cowboys have shown enough to fade a good defense getting 7 points. I do worry that Zeke just goes beserk but the Bills have worked to shore up the run d and it's been much better. Milano has been playing out of control lately, and I fully expect Tre White to come out on top battling Cooper (or Gallup should he get matched up there.) I'd expect the Bills to load up on Zeke and make Dak beat them. To me it all comes down to how much pressure the Bills front is generating, and Shaq Lawson, Oliver both are starting to be problems for the olines.

Buffalo has finally figured out they need to feed Singletary, and it's helping Allen out. Allen does have to play within himself, but the kid is a playmaker. Yes, he's prone to fumbling, but has 2 less scoring tds than Dak, and 2 less interceptions...Knox is emerging as a viable option in the pass game and Brown is reliable for that big play. Ultimate motivation for Beasley here, I hope hes's targeted early so he gets going. I don't think the Bills get blown out again this year unless some crazy shit goes down.

I think the total is a bit high but the Bills will have to score to win this game. I'm going to play Bills+pts & ml smaller. Homer wagers on turkey day so I may be in trouble but I'll pay to see the Bills get blown out. Lean Bills tt over 20 maybe 1sth over.
 
I don't think the Cowboys have shown enough to fade a good defense getting 7 points. I do worry that Zeke just goes beserk but the Bills have worked to shore up the run d and it's been much better. Milano has been playing out of control lately, and I fully expect Tre White to come out on top battling Cooper (or Gallup should he get matched up there.) I'd expect the Bills to load up on Zeke and make Dak beat them. To me it all comes down to how much pressure the Bills front is generating, and Shaq Lawson, Oliver both are starting to be problems for the olines.

Buffalo has finally figured out they need to feed Singletary, and it's helping Allen out. Allen does have to play within himself, but the kid is a playmaker. Yes, he's prone to fumbling, but has 2 less scoring tds than Dak, and 2 less interceptions...Knox is emerging as a viable option in the pass game and Brown is reliable for that big play. Ultimate motivation for Beasley here, I hope hes's targeted early so he gets going. I don't think the Bills get blown out again this year unless some crazy shit goes down.

I think the total is a bit high but the Bills will have to score to win this game. I'm going to play Bills+pts & ml smaller. Homer wagers on turkey day so I may be in trouble but I'll pay to see the Bills get blown out. Lean Bills tt over 20 maybe 1sth over.
Good stuff, thank you.
 
Don't have the results but I have a hard time the last few years to not simply fade the public. Today is one of the most popular days for the average joe to get down on NFL games. It's gotta be up there in the same hemisphere with the super bowl. Dont see the books losing most years on a day like today...Just a thought that I have been working with the last 2 seasons
 
Mitch shouldn’t be favored on the road against anyone even if I’m the QB. Give me Blough and 5+ at home on turkey day anytime and I’ll pay to be wrong. (This is all said as a Bears homer)
Ill defend Mitch here. When used the right way he has success. Last year + this year hes had more good than bad games. Also the game has little to do with him at this point.

Bears are a top 10 defense vs a 3rd qb and no run game. Also lions def is crap since the trade of diggs. Fans are boycotting team, owner pushing HC out, they just lost to skins.... convince me why the lions remotely show up or compete here? Meanwhile the bears are in the wild card hunt somehow and the team is motivated.

The only positions you could argue in favor of lions kicker and TE.
 
Don't have the results but I have a hard time the last few years to not simply fade the public. Today is one of the most popular days for the average joe to get down on NFL games. It's gotta be up there in the same hemisphere with the super bowl. Dont see the books losing most years on a day like today...Just a thought that I have been working with the last 2 seasons
Same thought but i think last year public won. At least on the skins game vs texans i believe. Public also doesnt bet big money. The only game i think we can evaluate as public is saints-falcons.

Lions cant say sharps on or public against bc of qb situation. I “think” bills-cowboys is split so it only leaves 1 game to test the theory in my opinion.
 
Don't have the results but I have a hard time the last few years to not simply fade the public. Today is one of the most popular days for the average joe to get down on NFL games. It's gotta be up there in the same hemisphere with the super bowl. Dont see the books losing most years on a day like today...Just a thought that I have been working with the last 2 seasons

I always thought Thanksgiving was a very public day. Almost a gift to the degens. They’ll get it back.
 
Ive asked myself this all week knowing one “has” to but i dont think one will. Gun to head id say dallas bc bills the only dog not with big inj issues

I’ve eliminated the falcons , I think the Bucs finally put them in the coffin last week
 
Thing is Trubisky is a terrible quarterback, why is he still starting ?
Maaaan i know people think im a homer but he isnt terrible. Last year the offense let him run, moved quick, and he performed very well.

This year OL turned to shit, look at how its impacting goff. Coach refuses to let mitch run bc its not “his offense”. Miller runs wrong routes alot, bottom of league in dropped passes, and TE is a big part of O and they dont have one.

Mitch is NOT error free but the offense has way more problems than mitch. I think hes an alex smith type with a slightly higher ceiling.
 
Thing is Trubisky is a terrible quarterback, why is he still starting ?
Look at the run game. Its awful bc of OL. There is zero threat of the run, they dont let mitch run anymore, defenses sit in pass coverage....

Its so much more than him
 
Found this trend
Matt Patricia (1Q) ATS at Home 11-2 Career:
2019:

7-3 vs Dal (W)
14-0 vs NYG (W)
14-7 vs Min (W)
10-0 vs KC (W)
6-7 vs LAC (L)


2018:

3-0 vs Min (W)
0-3 vs LAR (W)
0-0 vs Chi (W)
7-7 vs Car (W)
7-0 vs Sea (W)
14-0 vs GB (W)
3-0 vs NE (W)
7-7 vs NYJ (L)
 
Saints -6.5 is a big play for me. I just don't see where the Falcons motivation comes from after last week. Saints have their eyes on the prize. I think they win by 10+
 
We’ll trend with this QB is zero but I think it more trend for coaching mindset & game planning by Patricia..Just sharing info not justifying any play but kinda strange the spread is getting juiced and ml is dropping in 1qtr
 
Seems like the road team always wins in the Saints/Falcons games.
Didn't look it up. Just something popping in my addled brain.
 
Yea
We’ll trend with this QB is zero but I think it more trend for coaching mindset & game planning by Patricia..Just sharing info not justifying any play but kinda strange the spread is getting juiced and ml is dropping in 1qtr
it is interesting
 
I’m throwing some change on the 1qtr just for kicks! Happy Turkey day CTG!
Hope All OUR bets cash!
 
Hard to ignore that trend, and Patricia does not seem like the kind of coach that will be overly conservative. I’m taking 1Q as well.
 
Plus, 1Q is lowest scoring quarter for Chicago offense this season (2.2 pts) whereas 1Q is highest scoring quarter for Detroit this season (7.1 pts)
 
Anthony Miller O42.5 Receiving Yards -112
David Montgomery O52.5 Rushing Yards -167
David Montgomery To Score +115

BUF/DAL O47 -106
Michael Gallup O59.5 Receiving Yards -112
Ezekiel Elliott O81.5 Rushing Yards -159

Michael Thomas O109.5 Receiving Yards -112
Calvin Ridley O71.5 Receiving Yards +105

I am on these
 
Don't have the results but I have a hard time the last few years to not simply fade the public. Today is one of the most popular days for the average joe to get down on NFL games. It's gotta be up there in the same hemisphere with the super bowl. Dont see the books losing most years on a day like today...Just a thought that I have been working with the last 2 seasons

Well these are the numbers. Favorites are an absurd 30-11 last 41 on Tday (73%) and have covered 7 straight so the public has been doing ok I would think
 
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