Tuesday, November 6th Plays and Analysis

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
7-4 +4.40 units

Passing on the Monday night game. Nice, solid start to the season. Through one week we are starting to get some answers as well as a lot of questions. Lets take a look at Tuesdays large card in the preliminary phases and be ready to go when the lines come out.

Phoenix heads into Charlotte to take on the Bobcats. We know that the Suns have struggled at times so far. Amare is hurt but Nash willed them to a great second half versus the Cavaliers. Really don't know what to think right now. The Bobcats got great play from J-Rich and Felton to hold off a late Miami charge for the win to start the season with two wins. Yes injuries are going to hurt them long-term but this team could still be a live home dog this year. Most likley pass unless its a real juicy number.

Back to the scene of last years brawl for the Nuggets as they vist MSG to take on the Knicks. the Nuggets shot the ball horrid in a home loss to the Hornets. When both Melo and Allen are off in the same game they struggle mightily. The Knicks held off the T-Wolves in their home opener after losing a tough one to the Cavs on Friday night. This should be a doozy with the hoopla from the brawl last year.

The high-flying Hawks head into the meadowlands to take on the Nets. The nets have been their usual Heckyl and Jyde selfs. Who knows what team shows up. The Bulls win doesn't look that impresive anymore. Atlanta needs to learn to play as a team and get some bench contributions but they are going to be an exciting team all year. They will have super highs and super lows all year. Borderline playoff team. Might look at a ATL play here if line is right.

Orlando heads up to Target Center to face the Wolves. Great matchup with Jeferson and Howard. Orlando has shown they are not great defensively and if they don't shoot well they will struggle. Minnesota has competed so far. I honestly think this is a stay-away game. Just doesn't feel right..at this point.

The Raptors off a tough OT loss visit the Bucks. Toronto and Boston had bad games but the Raps blew it in the 4th by not scoring. They played as bad as they could on offense sans Ford and almost beat Boston. They should feel solid about that. Milwaukee picked up a win against the Bulls but anyone can do that right now. That team is so fractured that if a trade doesn't happen this season could get very ugly. Looking for a short number here for a Raptors play.

San Antonio visits Houston. I am sure the usual suspects will be on the under hard. I still think the Rockets will be up and down early but with Tracy's early play maybe nopt as much as first feared. Something here is telling me Rockets but they will be on a back-to-back so most likely pass.

Unreal, The Clipshow is now 2-0 this season. Stop pouring the kool-aid though they have played some garbage so far in GSW and Seattle. This game is funny though because the Bulls are playing like garbage and have the Detroit lookahead.

Another battle of bad teams at Arco. The Durant show continues as he has gotten better each game so far. What a player. Guy is unreal. Sacramento is horrible. cannot back Seattle though as they need to put together a full game for us first. Over perhaps?

The Hornets head into Staples to take on the suprising Lakers. Well, not suprising. The Lakers have some nice pieces and KB24 is playing excellent all-around ball so far. The Hornets are 3-0 after winning in Denver and showing they can win ugly at times. No clue on the side in this game.

Cleveland after a horrible second half in the desert heads up to the Bay Area to play the Warriors. The Warriors are exhibiting one of the worst defenses in modern era. They have played rebounding teams so far and got beat in all. Cleveland should control the inside and James could get 50 here in the uptempo attack. Cleveland is a lean here.



Your thoughts. If any plays pop up they will be posted here tomorrow night.:cheers:
 
Unreal, The Clipshow is now 2-0 this season. Stop pouring the kool-aid though they have played some garbage so far in GSW and Seattle. This game is funny though because the Bulls are playing like garbage and have the Detroit lookahead.


gulp......ahhhhhh.......kool-aid good :tiphat:
 
gulp......ahhhhhh.......kool-aid good :tiphat:


Kool-AidMan.jpg
 
Some thoughts:

Is it possible that Dantonio actually plays his bench a little? It is the first of a 4 in 5. I doubt it. After Phoenix swept (almost swept, don't really remember) the eastern conference on the road last year I'd need a few points to back the Bobcats. Not sure why anyone would want to back the Suns on the road after watching a couple of their games.

If the Hawks had won tonight then I might be more inclined to back them @Jersey but the loss might have burst their bubble a bit. Not that they can look ahead but I'm sure they're looking to Phoenix @home and then @Boston coming up. This looks as if it would be the dead game of the bunch and Jersey can't afford to slip. Like Jersey.

pass on madison square. over possibly.

Probably entertain an under bet for the Bucks/Raptors game. No real opinion on a side, but obviously the Raptors should win this one. -2 or below would be nice, but i don't think we'll see it.

I'm not quite as down on the Magic defense as yourself as they got scorched by Detroit but held the Bucks to 38% and the Wiz to 35%. I expect Minny will be below 40% as well as they're not a good offensive team. I can gurantee I'll be on an under here. This will be an ugly basketball game.

The Clipps aren't going to win in Chicago, but the question is how many points are the books going to require the Bulls to win by? No way I touch this one.

Need to see the result of Hou/Dal before I jump on a side in with SAN/HOU, but I like SAN. If Hou beats dallas I'll jump on the Spurs. They love these games. If HOU is coming off of a loss I'll pass.

I'm confident the Sonics are the better of these teams. Who knows what this line is? Gotta be a PK. No way the books make Sac a favorite nor do they have the Sonics laying points on the road. Glad I don't have to set lines.

If the Warriors don't beat the Cavs it'll be Nov. 16th before they have another shot at a victory. I think they know it and come out and play well here. I can't believe the Cavs only played 8 guys tonight and LB played 43 minutes on the first game of a 6 game/9 day roadie. After going thru PHO, GSW, UTA this team is going to be spent. Luckily they get SAC as a break before finish up @LAC and then at Denver. Denver will beat them by 40 that night. MDF play #2 for me.

I'll pass on the Lakers and Hornets. Both teams played really well tonight and have looked great so far. I'll be rooting for the Horents though as it'll set up some other nice stuff down the road.


Didn't mean to turn this into the discussion thread for Tuesday, but once I start I can't stop. GL this week BAR.
 
Some thoughts:

Is it possible that Dantonio actually plays his bench a little? It is the first of a 4 in 5. I doubt it. After Phoenix swept (almost swept, don't really remember) the eastern conference on the road last year I'd need a few points to back the Bobcats. Not sure why anyone would want to back the Suns on the road after watching a couple of their games.

If the Hawks had won tonight then I might be more inclined to back them @Jersey but the loss might have burst their bubble a bit. Not that they can look ahead but I'm sure they're looking to Phoenix @home and then @Boston coming up. This looks as if it would be the dead game of the bunch and Jersey can't afford to slip. Like Jersey.

pass on madison square. over possibly.

Probably entertain an under bet for the Bucks/Raptors game. No real opinion on a side, but obviously the Raptors should win this one. -2 or below would be nice, but i don't think we'll see it.

I'm not quite as down on the Magic defense as yourself as they got scorched by Detroit but held the Bucks to 38% and the Wiz to 35%. I expect Minny will be below 40% as well as they're not a good offensive team. I can gurantee I'll be on an under here. This will be an ugly basketball game.

The Clipps aren't going to win in Chicago, but the question is how many points are the books going to require the Bulls to win by? No way I touch this one.

Need to see the result of Hou/Dal before I jump on a side in with SAN/HOU, but I like SAN. If Hou beats dallas I'll jump on the Spurs. They love these games. If HOU is coming off of a loss I'll pass.

I'm confident the Sonics are the better of these teams. Who knows what this line is? Gotta be a PK. No way the books make Sac a favorite nor do they have the Sonics laying points on the road. Glad I don't have to set lines.

If the Warriors don't beat the Cavs it'll be Nov. 16th before they have another shot at a victory. I think they know it and come out and play well here. I can't believe the Cavs only played 8 guys tonight and LB played 43 minutes on the first game of a 6 game/9 day roadie. After going thru PHO, GSW, UTA this team is going to be spent. Luckily they get SAC as a break before finish up @LAC and then at Denver. Denver will beat them by 40 that night. MDF play #2 for me.

I'll pass on the Lakers and Hornets. Both teams played really well tonight and have looked great so far. I'll be rooting for the Horents though as it'll set up some other nice stuff down the road.


Didn't mean to turn this into the discussion thread for Tuesday, but once I start I can't stop. GL this week BAR.
Awesome stuff bro.

I agree a bit about ORL. Wiz and Bucks though are going to be iffy teams this year. I just think against good offenses or teams with veterans they get torched. I guess it doesn't apply to this game.

I noticed the Cavs rotation tonight and just briefly looked thru the rest of their trip. Very good spots coming up. I thought Warriors would win in LA though Friday as only possible win for awhile. We'll see. Cavs can rebound and that kills Warriors.

Sorta agree if tomorrow game is a big Rocket win then things can set up nice for tuesday.
 
first look: liking Toronto, Clips and New Orleans

Toronto should bounce back and uhh is Yi gonna be guarding Bosh?

Chicago is just struggling now, and I'm gonna ride it til it stops. Clips, altho I have no idea how, are looking pretty decent. I forget how many weapons they actually have. Kaman looking to have the yr I expected him to have last yr. That guy has raw talent and all the tools to become noticed

New Orleans has just been looking good. Both the Lakes and NO are 3-0 ATS, only LA is getting noticed for it, as it makes the cover of every single one of their games. I'm a bit mad at them for beating me with Utah today, but still. New Orleans has all the pieces, and I don't really feel they are lacking in any category. I suppose the could use a better post presence, but West is just fine as a PF. He's quitely good
 
and IMO, if you guys feel the Spurs would nbe a good bet if Rockets win, then why not do a 2 games chase fasing Houston? go one unit on Dallas today.. if it loses and Rockets get the win you're hoping for, then doule up on SA. and come up 1 unit, if Dallas wins, you win your unit
 
Raptors looks interesting.

Don't know if you noticed, but seattle has won or covered all of it's 3 1st halfs.
 
I like bulls alot bar, clippers gonna tank real soon
if the line is short im allllll over the bulls
 
GL BAR. Raptors are 2.5 tommorow. Thinking about playing it and the over. Any thoughts
 
Good luck Big Al, great writeups as per usual. :shake: :cheers: looking forward to your plays.
 
hey BAR, I'm on Hawks-Nets under 188
Hawks have shown some decent defense until now, limiting two great offensive sides. Nets are sluggish and crappy on the offensive end, Carter and Krstic are really rusty, and the rest of the line-up isn't much of an offensive threat. I expect them to play strong defense tonight, after their horrendous last home performance.

GL with your plays, if you take any...
 
Karlovie, I do like that under a bit. Hawks don;t play good fundamental defense but they get their hands in passing lanes and block a lot of shots.
 
You been rolling with the road teams a lot early on this season. Any particular reason you like Cleveland here?
 
You been rolling with the road teams a lot early on this season. Any particular reason you like Cleveland here?
Gooden, Z etc will actually look good inside and they will get a shitton of offensive boards. Look at GSW opponents so far...all good rebounding teams. Thats their biggest weakness. No one to guard Lebron eother. He, if he wants, can have a career game here. Me thinks though Cleveland will be extremely proficient on offense and coast in second half. Its only game 2 of the trip. Their games have been spaced out every other day so far. Very important for the Cavs to win games like these that they should.
 
I don't really get everyone loving Toronto. I can see them winning, I just don't see the line value. -3 seems appropriate, does anyone want to convince me that this line should be -5 or so?

As for Cleveland, I agree totally, I think they have to win games like this one on this trip and LeBron should score at will. Dan (or xpression-systems or whatever the fuck his weird name is on here) is the GSW local here, and he likes GSW, so I got turned off a bit. The line move is weird there, GSW now -2? Who the fuck is pounding GSW and why?

GL dude.
 
I like Golden State here. They havent showed me much all year ( I do think they are overrated) but i also think the cavs are as well.. I mean congrats on beating the knicks at home. I think the warrirors get their first win of the season tonight. One team struggles to score the other doesn't. Who will guard Baron Davis? I think they will expose the slow footed gooden and big z.. just my opinion, that is why they play the games.
 
LOL, nice avatar ATL.

I saw you and ABCS complaing about that call the other night and I hadn'ty seen it..just heard radio as I was in transit..anyhoo..that was clearly a foul. He hit his arm. Granted the refs usually don;t blow whistles 'all the time' with under 10 seconds left...but it was a foul..muh moreso thatn the sheed-smith one o nthe other end.

A few other points. I loved Acie Law in college and man he looked good in the first half Sunday night. I watched the game again in middle of night replay to get a full-feel for the Hawks. Josh Smith has to settle down a bit wih the jumpshots. He and Maxiell had great dueling blocks and Sheed got him a few times too. Marvin Williams is carrying over that April he had last year for sure. He is a bit too into his own self though in my mind. Al looks good. Joe had a really bad first half as Rip got off early and he didn't do much. But, he was pateint and thats huge for a young team like this. The overall defense is not good but they are so quick and get their hands on so many balls. So, the keys for ATL in my mind; Increase ball movement, decrease wild shots and better team defense and this team will go places.
 
I was impressed with sheeds d. When he wants too he can be a lock down defender.
 
Totally agree. If Josh Smith stops shooting from the outside, for the rest of the year, I seriously think they win 5 more games than they would if he continues with his current shot selection. The difference between the Hawks and good teams are the good teams know their roles. So, it's gonna be tough to cap these guys until they start doing things consistently, but obviously they're showing some huge promise.

JJ has started both games off slowly, but he's been unstoppable in the second half. Marvin's shooting isn't so surprising because last year was derailed because of that hand injury, but his defense is so far has been a pleasant surprise. You're right, their defense isn't going to be good overall, but if they play the uptempo, chaotic style they want the defense will be much better. These guys are so athletic that they can get to lose balls faster than anyone, but if it's a halfcourt game, that strength is taken away. Plus, in a fast paced game, the difficulty defending the post when Horford and Shelden are at center will be hidden a lot.

To simplify the keys for them even more than you did, the Hawks need Acie Law to learn how to not get into foul trouble and continue developing. The sooner he takes over the better. That alone will increase ball movement (Lue and Johnson don't run this offense well, Johnson is too slow, and Lue can't find the open man, he only looks for his own shot), decrease wild shots (Lue will be out, so a lot of that is relieved. But the bigger problem is still Smith), and they'd have better team defense (Lue can't guard anyone, AJ is old and slow but better than Lue). So, simply put, a lot of this is on Acie's shoulders.
***
That's why I'm not on them tonight ... Kidd will be able to get Acie in foul trouble easily by posting him up or just in transition and AJ will be forced to play. Lue can't play on Kidd, I think Woodson realizes that, so I expect AJ to play more than his requisite 15min which will kill the flow of the offense. If I knew Acie wouldn't get into foul trouble, I'd take them, but I don't expect it. I might be on the under with AJ playing as much as I think he will be. Wow, that was long, the Hawks excite my fingers.
 
I was impressed with sheeds d. When he wants too he can be a lock down defender.
Great article about him in paper today..I'll link it in a bit.

Especially wth all the weight he lost he is able to do it full games early in regular season now. His defese on smith, oneal and lewis thru three games has been impressive..not to mention his help defense
 
LOL-yes, VC's injury would be the assumption

LOL-you knew that title under your name was coming or something close to that

heh

Come up with a permanent one you want and I'll get it for yas
 
Hope like Hell Phoenix wins and the Hawks lose.

If ever I'd back against Phx vs a "no-name" Eastern team, its the Suns at ATL Weds after the aforementioned results sequence.

Go Suns. Go Nets. Set up this bet.
 
could have a little to do with Kaman's status. he is questionable with a bruised leg courtesy of Robert Swift's steel leg brace. his leg stiffened up on the plane ride to chicago and couldnt practice yesterday, as far as i know he is the only one in question
 
Sam mitchell sucks, he didnt give his team a chance when there down by 10. i bitched in Toronto mike's thread, coach kept bosh on bench down by 10 points with 2 fouls, instead he puts him in when they are losing by 22, afraid of him fouling out,, who cares, the game will be out of hand by then.
 
Toronto laid a fuckin egg. Hope Cleveland gets their shit together and gets us a push for the night.
 
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