Tuesday NBA

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Well had the typical SN breakdown. Have a great handle but a few bad decisions and somehow have one of my worst Nites in the NBA thanks to a complete bloodbath with 1stH and 2nd H plays! I have to figure out what I am doing wrong cause it has destroyed my profits this month instead of enhancing them like it had been doing previously.

Quick look at Tuesday...

> Hornets @ Philly : basically with Sixers just 2-8 SU past 10 I have to think as long as they stayed favored I like NO here. The Hornets have West and Jackson healthy now and that makes them greatly improved due to the maturation of players like Pargo and Butler. The total 184 or so seems low since I cant recall Philly stopping anyone. I would be suprised if Philly couldnt manage 90 points at home.

> Suns @ Wash : I know Suns are HOT and have revenge but how can they be 5? They have struggled versus Wash in recent meetings and they havent been reliable road chalk against solid teams. So liking this HOME DOGGIE. The total is enticing at 231. Like Killa said this game should be up and down all nite....hard to imagine both teams not topping 115. In what should be a close game....

>Dallas@ Orlando : The Magic are back to back but think Dallas is something like 0-4-1 ATS past 5 as road chalk. It looked like Orl was getting it together in NJ tehn they fell apart only to bounce back in Cle. Hill played well in Cle but his status always a question. Right now thinking Orl 1st H cause of Mavs slow starts but I cant get a HALF play right or the Points.....Totals I expect 185.5....

> Atl @ Chi : NL yet...not sure of Smiths status with him I expect Bulls -11 /188...wait to comment here....

> Den @ Seattle : The Nuggets will be fourth in 5 days but they are streaking. Both teams playing well. Melo could be flat in a back to back...whop knows really. What I do like more then Wash total is the Sonics 217 or 217.5 over.....both teams play no defense. Look how points were scored tonite awful 3pt shooting and below FT shooting. This rematch features Ray Allen and Melo something missing last time. Expect both teams above 110. Like Seattle just not sure I want to fade the Nugget train.

> Milw @ LAC: cant be interested in LAC basically laying -10 but maybe 1st H. The Bucks got smoked in Seattle and portalnd was smoking them @ half but wilted but LAC is better then Portland. With how Cassell and Brand is playing tough to imagine they cant top a 100...which tends to make the over attractive..

Of the early leans ...Over 217 Seattle , Over 231 Wiz and Wiz +5 seem to be the strongest....GL
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Sports- I like the over too in the Wiz game.</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Chat with you guys tmrw...

Believe I dont think I am getting involved in the Bulls game cause I have no handle on atlanta...they got killed on the glass vs Charlotte and Wallace should be able to do that but who knows....

Terp, will be playing that for sure...those 2 overs are definite big plays for me...BOL
 
I think the bet I like most tomorrow goes the next day. Knicks at home vs Suns looks very promising. GL
 
Bucks are screwed without Redd, Williams, and Villaneuva. They've lost 8 of 9. There is not doubt in mind Clipps win big here. Ok, a little doubt.
 
Nice thoughts to start the card off as always Nut. Kep to what you do and you will minimize any mistakes you think you may be making.

Best of luck this evening. Really hadn't thought about that Seattle total. I tend to agree there. Has the feel of a 112-108 kinda affir at worst.
 
Thanks BAR . Simply decision making. How to play certain games. Make a 1st Half play which losses and the game spread/total hits instead. Which leaves you down gross vig these days instead plus a whole number. Then you do vice versa play the game spread and the half hits. Which only bothers me or concerns me with bad teams. You know the bad team tends to fade in the 2nd H if the game is close. Sometimes I think yeah I play to many games...nope I tend to not play enough. Waited on Utah and had no chance at half , waited on NJ and Under but with no value went opposite and lost. Its a matter of simply trusting my first instincts and being comfortable playing them. Rarely do I lose cause I had the game wrong more times cause I approached it wrong. For instance I dont mind losing the Denver Over cause I started off by saying the KEY to the total was the outcome vs the spread. On spreads and totals just for 3 weeks this month +95 units but somehow since Pinny shut us out I have managed to lose about 65% of that on Half plays...BOL!

Coppsguy - You know where my doubt comes from?? The GS game when they had like 6 bodies....they could never get up 20 and faded last 6 minutes. I think teams develop M.O's and that scares me. Perfect example was having Spurs vs NO the other nite. They destroy NO 1st Half only to let up in the 4th quarter. So going into Boston I know the samething will happen. get up big 1st H and then get backdoored at the end....it did happen. So I am thing LAC 1st H is the better play. Bucks are fucked but LAC is still inconsistent IMO......BOL

Tuck- I dont even want to think about Wed yet....BOL

Duy - Good Luck bro!
 
Tonite: {vig -110 unless noted}


Orlando Magic +6.5 {5units} ML +215 {1/2unit} -6.00
Wizards +5 -105{4units} ML +180 {1/2unit} -4.50
Wiz +3 1st H {1unit} -1.10
Over 231.5 Wash {3units} +3.00
Hornets +135 ML {2units} -2.00
New Orleans +1.5 1st H{1.5units} -1.65
Over 184.5 Philly {3units} +3.00

2-3 -6.50 sides & totals
0-2 -2.75 1st H

Reasons:
> In Orlando you have Magic playing 4th in 5 nites against a Dallas team who is 20-1 SU last 21 games. However the Mavs are just 3-14 SU Lifetime in Orlando , dropping four of the past 5 visits. Orl is 4-0 ATS past 4 in the series. The win in Orlando was very shaky IMO. First Dallas was -10 pt favs on the road which should tell alot. Second is it took place in March 2004. The Mavs had a 6 man rotation that included Nash , M.Daniels , Josh Howard , Diggler , Antoine Walker , Antawn Jamison. The Magic had Lue and Stevenson in the backcourt . They had Bogans , Gooden and Juwan Howard starting the forward spots. There bench didnt play much bot featured mainly Britton Johnson. You get the picture HUGE talent disaprity.

Orlando has held its own vs the West nearly winning In Pho and LAL last week. While vs the East recently as road chalk Dallas has struggled. Last 5 road games as chalk ... in Miami they pushed as 6 pt favs , they failed to cover @ Tor and @ Ind laying 5 and 4 points...they had a 1pt win in Tor and 2pt OT win in Indiana. Before that depending on where you got them they had a huge 2nd H comeback win in Utah finishing up by 3 and lost as small favs in LAL.

Basically I had this game at closer to -4 so the line itself has value as does the situation since Orl has played Dal well lately and the Mavs have not had success in Orlando. Would lean towards the under but a close game probably sneaks over on FTs unless its a 1 possession game late.

> With Washington simply dont understand this line but elite teams in revenge spots are usually inflated. However I really think this should be closer to Suns -2. They have only played 5 of the past 13 away. The results are not outstanding. They barely snuck by a Billups-less Psitons , they failed to cover and barely won in Toronto and Chicago. They were only -5.5 vs Houston and that was McGrady and Ming missing they trailed at half and won by 9. They smoked Memphis big deal. I believe they are just 2-7 last 9 visists to MCI. They battled Wash at home earlier and lost in OT dropping to 13 SU past 4 meetings. So the revenge angle scares me and so does some of that last meeting since Wash jumped on them but Pho had no trouble batting back. Remeber thats when Suns got stuck in Denver which I dont think had much to do with the game. Wash has failed with these big totals so that is concerning. The 1st meeting was 127 up and check the Suns @ Grizz boxscore. Expecting something similiar. Caution is Suns 8-2 UNDER away past 10 since the Boston and NJ games....

> In Philly I simply have no faith in this team at the moment. They are only 2-8 past 10 and caught Miami somewhat tired after a rough stretch. They have failed to play any defense as 9 of past 10 have scored at least 98. With NO getting healthy the fact after a slow start managed 86 in SA leads me t believe they should top 90 here worst case. Hornets really have ben unable to slow opponents as well with 5 of the past 7 topping 97.....think Philly is 3-14 SU vs the West

Later games
> Not sure about Chi vs Atlanta yet
> Thinking Sonics and will play the Over .
> Thinking LAC 1st Half and over late game


BE back to finalize and working on CBB...GL
 
Last edited:
I surrender!! Suns and Mavs playing like the leagues two best teams.....what can you do certainly not suprised......

I should be back by 10PM...preliminary not locked in will be played

Over 216 Seattle {6units}
Seattle +3 {3units} ML {1unit}
 
Late nite Part I:

Sonics +3.5 {3units} ML +130 {1unit} -4.30
Over 216 {6units} +6.00

Tough loss as we lead 106 -103 late only to see DEN score 10 straight. It happens. The tough part is the 3rd quarter did us in. Sea great 1st H and stinky 2nd H...right affinity...No contributions from ridinour and Wilkins and they big DEN run came with Allen , Collison and Wilcox on the pine....sucks its anywhere from an 8.60 unit swing or 4unit swing...could have put nicely on the plus side...
 
Last edited:
The Bucks game I am little concerned that they come out and play good defense on both sides. Really hard to believe that Milw cracks 90 here...which is starting to make the Under look attractive. I will just sit and watch that total...after intilaing liking the Over. Not crazy about laying such a price with LAC cause they let teams bck in so I went LAC 1st Half. The LAC team is playing better and Milw has to play well on defense to compete.

1st H LAC -5.5 {3units} +3.00
 
Last edited:
So happy I changed my mind on the clippers over...

over 107 denver {2units} 2nd h +2.00
 
Last edited:
I am undecided about about a side but lean towards Milw +2....

Under 98 LAC {3units} +3.00

127 pts at the half , 69 pt 2nd quarter , ....just think it has to have one bad quarter....of course I am going against my intial OVER play so who knows....


Solid read by me for once on a 2nd H play actually had great handle on all the 2ndH maybe I will turn it around still! Still about 7 to play in LA but 25 pt lead and they just hit the 50th pt!!
 
Last edited:
Guy Vincent said:
I got Clip 2H -2

Good Luck with that. I just dont like how LAC finished vs GS in the home matchup. As well as the Bucks srong 2nd H @ Portland.....A LAC blwout would help the under ...
 
Great call on the Denver over... No clue why that thing dropped today, but it scared me off... Who the hell was pounding that under? Those teams went 90 MPH all game... GL tomorrow dude

PS: Our Knicks have ANY chance tomorrow? I can't see it
 
I was certainly nervous myself. I guess the only logical explanation is that the people who where involved yesterday with the total either ran with the under again or converted some over backers into under players... for some reason Seattle totals have been soft I probably have made a big play on everyone at home sicne Ray Allen returned...

See if Marbury was playing I would say yeah we have a real legit chance. We did beat them @ MSG last year.

Thing is I think we see something in the range of -6.5 to -7.5 with Marbury but if he is Out(and is doubtful) we should see at least -8.5...NYK does have Miami rematch ondeck.
 
Back
Top