So, one thing I have been doing pretty well with lately is some 1h totals. I don't want to say I have a full system down at all but there are certain criteria I have to meet. With that being said, we posted two a few Saturday nites ago that worked out well. Last night, Bulls and Hawks got over the 117 with a late push. Let's see how tonight goes. I have dived a bit deeper into this one, so hopefully these numbers help paint a picture and maybe help out future capping...
LA Lakers vs Detroit Pistons
The 1st half total is currently painted 119 -105 at my deli.
A few notes first:
Scoring defense this season:
Scoring defense last TEN games:
*Key note there, Detroit has played a few slower tempo teams (ORL, OKC for instance) plus a Bullets game
*One overtime each
Detroit last FIVE first halves:
Los Angeles last TEN first halves:
*I could have kept going with Lakers games. They have simply had a month of 'offense' going on.
Now, you can see where I am going here, but let us look at the concerns...
My big thing I have been looking for is both line movement but also a 1h with a distinct difference from the 2nd half total if one was to look pre-game. The fact that they are projecting 119 then 123 here is what I have been researching more and more lately. This happens a lot, and frankly makes no sense with some of the teams they do this for. I have not found enough correlating evidence to suggest that these numbers should be lower. Sure, the 119 here falls a bit more in line with the 237 opener, but the adjustment should be a bit more for a game that has risen to 242 currently.
I believe with recent form, that we will see a pretty wide-open first half here. Now, maybe the Lakers have dedicated these off days to getting back to defensive basketball? I haven't found anything to suggest as much. Detroit loses Bogie on offense, but Fontecchio is filling in nicely so far, especially from deep. This will be a basic one unit play for me, and if it loses but shows the pace I might dive back in at halftime. Hopefully no posting jinx, the few totals we've posted have turned out nice lately.
LA / Detroit 1H o119 -105
LA Lakers vs Detroit Pistons
The 1st half total is currently painted 119 -105 at my deli.
A few notes first:
- Pistons 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency (121.1 points per 100 poss)
- Lakers have been off since last Friday night
- Pistons have played three games already out west, having won the first two and leading for most of the game vs the Clippers
- Pistons have been hanging out in LA for 3 days since the last game. Cap that as you will.
- Pistons with lots of trades last week, so the extra practice time likely helps
Scoring defense this season:
LA Lakers 18th -- 117.1
Detroit Pistons 27th -- 122.1
Scoring defense last TEN games:
LA Lakers -- 124.0
Detroit Pistons -- 117.9
*Key note there, Detroit has played a few slower tempo teams (ORL, OKC for instance) plus a Bullets game
*One overtime each
Detroit last FIVE first halves:
58-49
56-71
70-63
47-50 (ORL)
59-65
57-64
Los Angeles last TEN first halves:
87-74
49-59 (DEN but this pace was quick, just a lot of misses)
74-58
59-59
60-46 (BOS game no James/Davis -- Celtics uninterested)
56-67
60-78
68-63
73-57
73-57
77-64
*I could have kept going with Lakers games. They have simply had a month of 'offense' going on.
Now, you can see where I am going here, but let us look at the concerns...
- Detroit has been hanging out in LA for a few days. Are they starting the vacation early? Will they care? Or does that actually help this?
- Detroit likely getting everyone acclimated can only help offensively.
- Both teams near bottom in three's.
- Conversely, Lakers near the top in FT's and Stons in the middle.
- Lakers with a much-needed break since a pretty loaded schedule.
- The week before ASG is never a friendly place for betting, imo, although a few years back we found a lot of overs the last full card.
My big thing I have been looking for is both line movement but also a 1h with a distinct difference from the 2nd half total if one was to look pre-game. The fact that they are projecting 119 then 123 here is what I have been researching more and more lately. This happens a lot, and frankly makes no sense with some of the teams they do this for. I have not found enough correlating evidence to suggest that these numbers should be lower. Sure, the 119 here falls a bit more in line with the 237 opener, but the adjustment should be a bit more for a game that has risen to 242 currently.
I believe with recent form, that we will see a pretty wide-open first half here. Now, maybe the Lakers have dedicated these off days to getting back to defensive basketball? I haven't found anything to suggest as much. Detroit loses Bogie on offense, but Fontecchio is filling in nicely so far, especially from deep. This will be a basic one unit play for me, and if it loses but shows the pace I might dive back in at halftime. Hopefully no posting jinx, the few totals we've posted have turned out nice lately.
LA / Detroit 1H o119 -105
