Tuesday July 23rd MLB Discussion

[Bushleague]

Like to see where some of these lines move over night

 

[Bushleague]

Watching...

NYY -115
PHI -135

 

[scarf31]

Been waiting my whole life for Cubs/Giants tomorrow just to know I’m watching a Yu / Bum battle...

 

[B.A.R.]

#BumFights

 

[bjorks]

Cleveland and Arizona. Was at the AZ game tonight and Baltimore hardly looks like they're trying other than trying to hit HR's.

 

[tuck321]

Bum is on 4 again Days of week 10-5 Giants 8-5 Cubs. Its a play on SF but worse than usual because of the complete game
Days of the week in Houston is 11-4 to 11-4

 

[tuck321]

Assuming Danley is correct Fiers Danley 5,25 Fiers Miley 1.86. Fiers is on best rest which I believe is 5-0 Have not looked at Miley yet
Miley also on best 2.81 ERA Fiers on 5 5-0 2.62

 

[Bushleague]

Miley’s splits

 

[Bushleague]

Fiers

 

[Bushleague]

Board 12.5 hrs from 1st post

 

[Bushleague]

Biggest move on a side looks like ARI no surprise their

 

[Bushleague]

Bundy, 10 career interleague starts, 6-4 4.25 ERA

 

[Bushleague]

Bundy splits

 

[Bushleague]

ARI, Kelley

 

[Bushleague]

Orioles now 0-19 in their last 19 of being a dog of more than +200 this season

 

[Bushleague]

Giants are now 16-3 since June 30th

 

[Bushleague]

Bum

 

[Bushleague]

Bum by month

 

[Bushleague]

Yu

 

[smo1a]

Grand Salami under 141 seems good.

 

[Inspekdah]

Yu loves the heat. It's why he hasn't fared as well outside of Texas.

Imagine it's a little too cool for his liking @ SF but he's been the best pitcher in bases form wise last couple times out.

 

[Bushleague]

The Blue Jays have lost 11 consecutive games started by Sanchez dating back to a home start against the Red Sox on May 22

If you look back at Sanchez’s past 15 starts for Toronto, the Blue Jays are just 1-14 in those games, losing by 3.2 runs per game.

Sanchez is the least profitable starting pitcher in baseball this season, losing bettors $1,044 on a $100 per-game basis, including -$1,292 since May 1 ... almost $500 more than any other pitcher.

 

[Bushleague]

Giants / Cubs total is currently 7

Overs are 50-37-10 (58%) in games with closing totals of 7 or fewer runs this season. Best over win rate for low-total games in the Bet Labs database.

 

[pressitup]

Orioles now 0-19 in their last 19 of being a dog of more than +200 this season

Probably since Cashner was traded.

 

[pressitup]

The Blue Jays have lost 11 consecutive games started by Sanchez dating back to a home start against the Red Sox on May 22

If you look back at Sanchez’s past 15 starts for Toronto, the Blue Jays are just 1-14 in those games, losing by 3.2 runs per game.

Sanchez is the least profitable starting pitcher in baseball this season, losing bettors $1,044 on a $100 per-game basis, including -$1,292 since May 1 ... almost $500 more than any other pitcher.

Furthering this line of thought, I'm on them tonight. A strict trend play.
Load up on the Injuns.

GL, sir.

 

[mrpickem]

Giants / Cubs total is currently 7

Overs are 50-37-10 (58%) in games with closing totals of 7 or fewer runs this season. Best over win rate for low-total games in the Bet Labs database.

Don’t think that’s right...overs only 16-24 or 40%

season = 2019 and total = 7 and H
SU: 25-22 (0.06, 53.2%) avg line: -111.9 / 100.4 on / against: +$38 / -$305 ROI: +0.6% / -5.3% RL: 21-26 (-0.10, 44.7%) avg line: 105.2 / -127.4 on / against: -$525 / +$125 ROI: -9.3% / +1.9% OU: 16-24-7 (0.21, 40.0%) avg total: 7.0 over / under: -$1,097 / +$740 ROI: -20.5% / +14.8%
Runs Walks SO Hits XBH HR SII MRI IL LOB TLOB ODP SRA PU Team 3.64 2.91 9.66 7.68 1.60 1.11 2.04 0.87 3.79 13.85 6.98 0.70 2.11 4.19 Opp 3.57 2.81 9.74 7.94 1.79 0.98 2.28 0.85 3.26 13.66 6.51 0.83 2.32 3.89

 

[mrpickem]

My bad, that was just 7. 7 or less is even better for unders

season = 2019 and total <= 7 and H
SU: 33-32 (-0.08, 50.8%) avg line: -115.6 / 103.5 on / against: -$319 / -$53 ROI: -3.8% / -0.7% RL: 28-37 (-0.24, 43.1%) avg line: 104.3 / -126.0 on / against: -$1,010 / +$445 ROI: -12.9% / +4.9% OU: 23-35-7 (0.38, 39.7%) avg total: 6.9 over / under: -$1,647 / +$1,108 ROI: -22.2% / +16.1%
Runs Walks SO Hits XBH HR SII MRI IL LOB TLOB ODP SRA PU Team 3.58 2.89 9.78 7.51 1.60 1.03 1.94 0.89 3.37 13.89 6.95 0.65 2.15 4.11 Opp 3.66 3.02 9.89 7.82 1.72 1.06 2.31 0.86 3.55 13.51 6.58 0.78 2.18 4.00

 

[Bushleague]

My bad, that was just 7. 7 or less is even better for unders

season = 2019 and total <= 7 and H
SU: 33-32 (-0.08, 50.8%) avg line: -115.6 / 103.5 on / against: -$319 / -$53 ROI: -3.8% / -0.7% RL: 28-37 (-0.24, 43.1%) avg line: 104.3 / -126.0 on / against: -$1,010 / +$445 ROI: -12.9% / +4.9% OU: 23-35-7 (0.38, 39.7%) avg total: 6.9 over / under: -$1,647 / +$1,108 ROI: -22.2% / +16.1%
Runs Walks SO Hits XBH HR SII MRI IL LOB TLOB ODP SRA PU Team 3.58 2.89 9.78 7.51 1.60 1.03 1.94 0.89 3.37 13.89 6.95 0.65 2.15 4.11 Opp 3.66 3.02 9.89 7.82 1.72 1.06 2.31 0.86 3.55 13.51 6.58 0.78 2.18 4.00

So were my numbers right for 7 and less than? Pulling data from a bunch of places

 

[tuck321]

Bundy over a 7 ERA with this ump

 

[tuck321]

Indians are a play but a tough one, Great play based on days of week. Good play based on Bauer on days rest. But up against a major homer ump

 

[Bushleague]

Yup. Locked me up sum Injuns -170

Let’s goooo

 

[mrpickem]

So were my numbers right for 7 and less than? Pulling data from a bunch of places

on totals 7 or less this year 23 over 35 under or 61% for unders and 16.1% ROI playing unders

 

[mrpickem]

7 oclockers showing sharpies on nats and sd ml...and atl RL
View attachment 41109

 

[VirginiaCavs]

7 oclockers showing sharpies on nats and sd ml...and atl RL
View attachment 41109

Is Tigres sharp?

 

[mrpickem]

Is Tigres sharp?

not so much, everyone pounding philly...squares and sharps

edit..it's under delay as well

 

[austinhous]

sharpies on sd ml

Padres been in the eastern time zone for a while. mets just got there from the west coast

 

[mrpickem]

Padres been in the eastern time zone for a while. mets just got there from the west coast

good point. I think its mostly paddack but that is something

I played mets *#^$(#^

started to buy out but line kept creeping up

nickle line at 5d was -113 on pads early today..last I seen 140

 

[austinhous]

Vargas always look wet. Like a swimsuit model.

 

[mrpickem]

wet...yes, a model...NOT

View attachment 41111

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Vargas always look wet. Like a swimsuit model.

I‘m not sure if i‘d have to be more drunk or more homosexual to agree with this

 

[austinhous]

No matter what he looks like when wet, Vargas doesn't look jet lagged tonight, which makes sense as he might have flown home after his last start in Minnesota. He might not have ever seen California with the rest of the team, which makes sense if they were planning ahead to try and mitigate the jet lag effect today. So if sharps knew something fishy beforehand it might be lurking in the bullpen. Thinking about buying the Padres live if it's still close once Vargas gets done and the bullpen steps in..

 

[austinhous]

I‘m not sure if i‘d have to be more drunk or more homosexual to agree with this

he kinda look like the bad guy from Crocodile Dundee II, but if you don't remember The Naked Gun then you'll probably not be familiar with Crocodile Dundee II either as they were both released in 1988. He kinda look like the bad guy Miguel from that movie..

 

[VirginiaCavs]

he kinda look like the bad guy from Crocodile Dundee II, but if you don't remember The Naked Gun then you'll probably not be familiar with Crocodile Dundee II either as they were both released in 1988. He kinda look like the bad guy Manuel from that movie..

I watch a ton of even older movies but have not seen those. Are they worth it?

 

[Inspekdah]

I watch a ton of even older movies but have not seen those. Are they worth it?

No.

 

[austinhous]

Yeah. As a kid Crocodile Dundee was the shit, but now, recommending it as a "must see" kinda feels like setting someone up to be disappointed.

 

[Inspekdah]

Cheesy classics but I’m not sure they’d translate well to today’s kids.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

No.

Blunt, but to the point

 

[austinhous]

Yanks own the highest over rate on the road with 69.8% of their road games going over the total. 5D is offering some alternate lines on the total. I'm gonna try some.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

The lower-quality stuff I watch is usually old B horror movies like Pin and Dead and Buried. I still enjoy them because I really like horror. I usually hate comedy films unless its smartly done satirical etc

 

[austinhous]

I just ordered a movie called Chainsaw Sally off Amazon the other day. A DVD movie. Also picked one called Nightmare on Elmo's Street where women live in a world with puppets living alongside them, "enacting depraved crimes," per the synopsis.