Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
May 2 Tue 2023

05:40 PM
901Atlanta BravesB. Elder -R+1½
-205		+113O 7½
-120
902Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R+1 Markets-1½
+175		-123U 7½
+100
06:05 PM
903Chicago CubsH. Wesneski -R-1½
+115		-133O 9
+100
904Washington NationalsT. Williams -R+1 Markets+1½
-135		+123U 9
-120
06:05 PM
911Cleveland GuardiansT. Bibee -R+1½
-145		+154O 7½
+105
912New York YankeesG. Cole -R+1 Markets-1½
+125		-167U 7½
-125
06:10 PM
913Toronto Blue JaysY. Kikuchi -L-1½
+135		-123O 9½
-110
914Boston Red SoxT. Houck -R+1 Markets+1½
-155		+113U 9½
-110
06:10 PM
915Minnesota TwinsJ. Ryan -R-1½
+100		-161O 8½
-110
916Chicago White SoxM. Kopech -R+1 Markets+1½
-120		+148U 8½
-110
06:40 PM
917Baltimore OriolesT. Wells -R-1½
+105		-145O 9
-115
918Kansas City RoyalsR. Yarbrough -L+1 Markets+1½
-125		+134U 9
-105
06:45 PM
925Los Angeles AngelsP. Sandoval -L+1½
-180		+112O 9
-105
926St. Louis CardinalsS. Matz -L+1 Markets-1½
+160		-122U 9
-115
07:05 PM
927Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Gallen -R-1½
+135		-128O 7½
-120
928Texas RangersJ. Gray -R+1 Markets+1½
-155		+118U 7½
+100
07:10 PM
929San Francisco GiantsA. DeSclafani -R+149O 8
-110
930Houston AstrosH. Brown -R+1 Markets-162U 8
-110
07:40 PM
905Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R-1½
+100		-158O 11½
+100
906Colorado RockiesR. Feltner -R+1 Markets+1½
-120		+146U 11½
-120
08:40 PM
907Cincinnati RedsG. Ashcraft -R+1½
-145		+153O 8½
-115
908San Diego PadresM. Wacha -R+1 Markets-1½
+125		-166U 8½
-105
08:40 PM
919Seattle MarinersB. Miller -R-1½
+120		-138O 8
-110
920Oakland AthleticsM. Miller -R+1 Markets+1½
-140		+128U 8
-110
09:10 PM
909Philadelphia PhilliesM. Strahm -L+1½
-145		+144O 8½
+100
910Los Angeles DodgersJ. Urias -L+1 Markets-1½
+125		-156U 8½
-120
 
Kikuchi used to be a pain in the ass, was mostly a fade for me cause he had so many issues with walks but he seems to have figured it out. Only 6 walks to go with 28 k’s in 27 innings, he has been fantastic. This a pretty cheap price to back him imo. Red Sox not nearly as strong vs lhp. I don’t have anything against Houck, I actually like his ov 4.5 k’s but i think he gets out pitched by Kikuchi.
 
Hunter brown is sporting some mean reverse splits, that doesn’t bode well for giants who gonna have a bunch of lefties in lineup, oddly his k:bb vs left handed hitters not nearly as strong but the ops is several hundred points lower! It’s not that the punch out percentage is lower, he just walks more guys from the left side. I don’t see a k prop out for him yet but I’ll be stalking it!
 
I really like Ashcraft but I’m very tempted to play pats team total over 4.5 again. I see signs of this offense taking off, soto starting to be a little more aggressive, tatis is hitting in every game, the bottom the order contributing: I like several these reds pitchers but they young and this lineup should be a Mfer to try and navigate. They might not blow Ashcraft up but they can get a few off him and get him out the game so they can do more damage to the suspect pen, 2 of the 3 guys cincy brought in game 1 gave runs up, count on more of that all series. As much I like Ashcraft this lineup team total should never be 4.5 unless they facing a legit true ace!
 
Braves seeing alcontera for 2nd straight start, this a rematch from a game they won 6-4 last week. Alcontera was dominating but then Braves got to him in the 6th and finished the comeback off against the pen. Getting plus on the Braves is super tempting but maybe this isn’t the best spot, alcontera hasn’t really been the same guy this year, he was close last outing so maybe here at home he can give one his virtuoso 7+ inning gems but I dunno, I have to look closer at this one.
 
Dunno what wrong w Jon Gray but 17:13 k:bb ratio in 25 innings ain’t nothing like I’ve come to expect from him, not sure if he hurt or what but something clearly ain’t right. I think Gallon one the 5 best pitchers in baseball right now, every time he pitches it hurts a bit knowing he should be a cardinal! But then I cash his k prop and im happy again! Lol.
 
Kinda want to see pats lineup but I dunno if I’ll actually wait that long to bet. Hoping they smart enough to have Cruz in at DH today and not platoon a lefty bat. Ashcraft has redic reverse splits as his heavy cutter appears way tougher for lefties to hit. I like this kid but think they need to do some tinkering or get him to add a pitch. He was throwing a sinker last year but he has mostly axed that pitch and is now throwing almost exclusively cutter/slider. Really think he needs to throw a 4 seamer or some other type of breaking pitch if he wants to be elite, that said the cutter is so tough for guys to barrel up he gets a lot of quick ground ball outs which has him going deep into games, a rate quality these days I really like! He gets a ton of soft contact which speaks to how good his 2 pitches are and of course he a guy I like to bet seeing how he not a high strikeout guy so the advanced metrics hate him (think everyone knows how much I like fading the no imagination die hard analytic crowd!). I just don’t know if this a good matchup for him? I have a hard time thinking he gonna be able to get thru the heart of this lineup 2-3x with 2 pitches. He was able to go 6 innings of 2 run ball against the Braves who I think the only lineup as good as pads in the NL. I obviously have a dilemma here as no surprise this line going up as the die hard analytic types are gonna fade this kid. Another good reason to disagree with their beliefs, cause they drive numbers!! Not much value betting wacha -190 imo but I do want to continue riding the San Diego offense while i think they still underrated (I actually played a pads future last night).
 
What oh what do we make of my guy Sandy alcontera? He hasn’t been awful, he got crushed in 1 start that skewing the numbers, he had one his complete game gems we saw often last year but that was a month and 3 starts ago. He was dealing his last time out vs these same Braves, I thought he was on his way to a 7+ inning gem but all a sudden the wheels fell off in the 6th. His velo/spin look basically the same so I don’t think it a situation where all the work last year wearing on him, the next logical question for me is the pitch clock bothering him? I wish there was a way I could see how long he took between pitches last year compared to this one? If anyone has any bright ideas here I’d love to hear them! Or just tell us what the numbers are!!! If the clock is a issue I dunno if that something he will get used to or it simply gonna lesson his effectiveness? Need to know if he took a long time betweem pitches in previous seasons before I start trying to come up with answers! Lol.
 
Im reading some stat cast stuff about the pitchers who took the longest between pitches before this year and don’t see alcontera on the list. Interestingly it a mixed bag with a few guys who been struggling this year and then there Zac Gallen who has been virtually unhittable! Safe to say he made the adjustment rather quickly, it might have even helped him somehow! Lol.
 
Speaking of gallen as much I love playing his k prop I don’t think I can get down w over 6.5 k’s against a ranger team who “only” fanning 19% the time against rhp! That is super low these days. Obviously they not facing guys like Gallen real often, he could absolutely punch out 7+ but I rather attack teams who whiff more often.

Doesn’t mean I don’t wanna play Gallen tho, I feel like he right there w Strider as the best pitchers going in the NL right now! His last 4 starts is 27 innings with 41 k’s and 1 freaking walk! He has given up all of 11 hits and no runs!! This has came against milw, Mia, sd, kc, milw was super hot when they ran into him, we know how good pads offense can be, fish not chopped liver, kc the only bad lineup imo and they usually don’t strike out a lot, he punched out 12 of his 19 outs vs kc! Obviously he can fan 7+ here!! The dude has been incredible.

We did just see Strider get hit yesterday, it happens to even the best, but strider was facing a team who was familiar with him and has had some success, rangers faced Gallen once in ‘21, doesn’t mean much but that was 6.2 innings w 8k’s, rangers did manage 3 runs. Again that was a different team and Gallen on a whole different level right now. The last elite rhp rangers saw was Cole who held them to 2 runs thru 6.2 innings and he punched out 8. He held them scoreless thru 5 and I think Gallen can do something similar here. Great pitching beats good hitting and right now Gallen is great!

Who isn’t so great is Jon gray who im a fan of, I played his k props many times last year and maybe 1-2x this season but he struggling. Gray sporting a lowly 17:13 k:bb in 25 innings. In his last 11 innings vs the minor league A’s and not so great Reds he has walked 7 and struck out 4 while giving up 3 runs against both! Let’s assume he can just match those performances vs a snakes squad with the 10th best ops vs righties and that be more than enough for Gallen to win the 1st 5 innings! Give me snakes Ff -.5 at -110!!
 
I suppose we could play rangers Ff tt u1.5 also at basically same price (give or take) but I trust snakes to plate at least 2 runs which would be same bet, thing is I think they could do more damage than that so think the snakes Ff the higher percentage play. Just throwing it out there if you did like gray you could go a different route.
 
I think cardinals will hit today, they still sport a really good ops vs lhp even after looking stupid vs Kershaw. My only concern is Sandoval 2 best pitches are slider and change, man that makes me nervous as they wernt close to putting the bat On Kershaw slider! I know Patrick Sandoval ain’t Kershaw but the cards bats ain’t exactly the bronx bombers either!! Cards saving grae could be Sandoval doesn’t do real well putting those pitches in the zone, so they just have to lay off of them, hope to get a hanger and not miss it by 5 inches! ideally make him come over the plate w a sinker and do damage when he does. He walking guys so take the walks and do damage when he comes into the zone. Sounds simple but nothing simple when you struggling to hit!! Both these squads hit much better vs lhp, neither these lefties are very good, this hand screams we should get runs. Maybe cards are inspired by the death of Mike Shannon? They would be wise to play well in the 1st game home since his death. I just don’t know if I trust them? Or will it be like the other day where they got me 3 runs off Synderguaard to cash Ff but they couldn’t do anything off dodgers Pen to hit the 4.5 team total?

Maybe it better to simply trust the halo’s? I certainly don’t trust cards pen and I think halo’s can def get 3 minimum off matz! We can get +110 on laa to score ov 4.5! Im thinking bout a split play here where I take laa tt over 4.5 and the game total over 9.
 
2 kids with big time fastballs go tonight in Oakland. The A’s kid has shown it a few times on the big league level and he fanning guys with it! The oak kid has a bit more velo averaging freaking 99 thus far (he not going super deep into games yet having only completed 4+). but by all account the kid pitching for seattle has a heater with a great shape and lot of life, not exactly chopped liver holding in the 95-97 range deep into games!

I think there a little extra inherent risk playing the kid making his big league debut but this could be the exception as he facing a minor league lineup and will have a major league defense behind him for the 1st time! Even with seattle lineup struggling mightily I still believe they gonna hit and in a battle of 2 kids throwing a bunch of smoke I’ll take seattle lineup with the vastly better pen which will most likely be where this game decided!

It so rare for me to be hunting favs but as I been saying all year, the A’s are just that bad whenever we can get a average or better team vs them and not have to pay insane prices I think it worth it! These dudes won 5 games in the 1st month! It not like they improving! They just won a game and have not come close to winning 2 in a row! I’ll happily play seattle and will be willing to even chase this series which not something I ever do!!
 
The pirates game sneaky. You wanna like them cause tampa starting a guy they just got from milw who been a reliever and has ugly splits vs lefties (ya’ll know how I love pirates vs these guys), however we got a 2 prong problem, 1st rays will prob take 1 look at him, tweak something and he become amazing! 2nd and more problematic, they gonna use Fleming as the piggy back so all a sudden pirates dealing w a lefty (not what we want!). You would think with so many switch hitters pirates could deal w this well but they just not as good when they get turned around!! Very tough.
 
Card so far

Snakes Ff -.5
Seattle/yanks ml parlay
Pads tt ov 4.5
Laa tt ov 4.5
Laa/stl ov 9

Freddy peralta ov 5.5 k’s
Strahm ov 5.5 k’s

Sgp

Houck 4+ k’s
Kikuchi 4+ k’s
Jays ml
 
I sure would like to get back to have more dogs on my card. Been 4-5 days and I don’t like it. Slight lean to laa, I think there a case for the nats but passing or playing total.

pirates game tricky as I eluded to, rays gonna get that reliever out and Fleming in quick which not a great matchup for pirates.

I do think I might go back over and play the Phillies after dinner. I like strahm vs lad lineup and Harper coming back should give Phillies a shot of energy, Urias has been hitable. Like the price for Philly.
 
Tampa some sneaky fucks. Soon as that garbage pen dude they just picked up got into trouble they went to Fleming, that what I was afraid of. Glad I passed.
 
I dunno if the Yankees offense can overcome 2 runs? Cole ain’t as sharp today as he been. Go figure, he been great when they could score a bit, now that they need him to be shut down he can’t. Mfer walking and hitting guys. Basically gifting cle runs
 
Another just ok start by alcontera where he at 100 pitches just to get thru 5 innings, just dunno what going on w him? Nothing looks different about his pitches but he not getting nearly the results this year.
 
Looks like cards are once again sitting Gorman against lefties. Have they ever noticed the best left handed hitters on other teams play against left handed pitchers!! I don’t understand why the just sit one their best producing hitters? They don’t sit goldsmidt against rhp, that would be dumb, just like sitting Gorman vs lhp is!
 
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