Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 25 Tue 2023

05:10 PM
971Colorado RockiesR. Feltner -R+1½
-120		+179O 8½
-110
972Cleveland GuardiansP. Battenfield -R+1 Markets-1½
+100		-195U 8½
-110
05:35 PM
951Los Angeles DodgersN. Syndergaard -R-1½
+130		-123O 8½
-118
952Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Oviedo -R+1 Markets+1½
-150		+113U 8½
-102
05:35 PM
961Boston Red SoxC. Kluber -R+1½
-150		+147O 8½
-130
962Baltimore OriolesK. Bradish -R+1 Markets-1½
+130		-159U 8½
+110
05:40 PM
963Houston AstrosL. Garcia -R+1½
-145		+152O 7½
-120
964Tampa Bay RaysD. Rasmussen -R+1 Markets-1½
+125		-165U 7½
+100
05:40 PM
973Texas RangersM. Perez -L-1½
+110		-139O 9½
+105
974Cincinnati RedsL. Weaver -R+1 Markets+1½
-130		+129U 9½
-125
05:40 PM
975Seattle MarinersL. Gilbert -R-1½
+135		-119O 8½
-115
976Philadelphia PhilliesB. Falter -L+1 Markets+1½
-155		+109U 8½
-105
06:07 PM
965Chicago White SoxM. Clevinger -R+1½
-121		+184O 9½
+100
966Toronto Blue JaysJ. Berrios -R+1 Markets-1½
+101		-200U 9½
-120
06:40 PM
957San Diego PadresB. Snell -L+105
958Chicago CubsJ. Steele -L+1 Markets-115
06:40 PM
967New York YankeesN. Cortes -L+112O 7
+100
968Minnesota TwinsJ. Ryan -R+1 Markets-122U 7
-120
06:40 PM
977Detroit TigersS. Turnbull -R+1½
-135		+155O 8½
-110
978Milwaukee BrewersE. Lauer -L+1 Markets-1½
+115		-168U 8½
-110
08:38 PM
969Oakland AthleticsM. Miller -R+1½
-125		+158O 8½
-120
970Los Angeles AngelsG. Canning -R+1 Markets-1½
+105		-172U 8½
+100
08:40 PM
979Kansas City RoyalsB. Singer -R+1½
-160		+121O 9½
-110
980Arizona DiamondbacksR. Nelson -R+1 Markets-1½
+140		-131U 9½
-110
 
who woulda guessed dodgers would ever be such short favs to the pirates? Maybe it even crazier I like pirates getting any plus, the only reason they not favs tonight is perception of the names on front of jerseys! I keep hearing how pirates still gonna finish 4th in the central and I’m just not seeing it, the scary thing is from what I understand they have a bunch more talent that hasn’t even came up yet!

I didn’t like it when cards moved Oviedo (just another in long line of terrible pitching moves by the front office), now he looks better than any starter cards have, by a lot! There no reason he shouldn’t be able to hold lad lineup down. They did show some life taking 3 of 4 in Chicago but I’m much more worried about cubs pitching than I am pirates. This kid been pretty dominant his last 3 starts and his stuff matches the results. He throwing mid-upper 90s heat and that not even his primary pitch as he throws the slider and curve over 60% the time, he has drifted more to this every year and the results been fantastic as his swinging strike rate goes up every year, he now generating over 14% swinging strikes this year which is elite.

Then you look at who pitching for dodgers and I sure as Fuvk don’t understand why they favs? Syndergaard just a guy, just a guy who has struggled more with lefties every year that his stuff has diminished, if you look at just his career numbers you wouldn’t think the splits are too bad, .640 ops for right handed hitters, .711 for left, surely nothing alarming but it has gotten drastically worse. The last 4 years lefties been at a .750 or higher ops, so far this year they sporting a .936! It fair to say it early but when you look at what he throwing I’m not sure there reason for much optimism! As I always say with these pirates, they a play on team for me anytime I can get plus money vs a middling rhp with not great splits. Forget bout the names on the jerseys, wrong team is favored here.
 
Man, talk about drastically overrating a pitcher. Look at balty at freaking -150s today after we got a little plus money on them yesterday! Cause Sale? Lol, injuries have ruined that dude, he a shell of his former self. I been a Bradish fan for some time and Kluber looks pretty much washed but I don’t think I can convince myself o’s chances today are so much greater than yesterday to justify the difference in price. There a few things that say Kluber could still have some better days but there also enough alarming stuff going on I wouldn’t bet on it. Think this just a pass for me.
 
Yankees have been the bounce back kings, lost yet another series opener last night but they have come back and won gm2 of every series besides against these twins who took 2 before losing 2 in NY, Cortes as a dog is super tempting but Ryan dominated this lineup in NY, now he gets them in a much more pitcher friendly park and it tough to find a bunch of runs. Under might be the play but they didn’t do us any favors with a flat 7. Small lean yanks and under but I dunno.
 
Mfers begging me to play Stros again, I dunno how many times I can take rays busting my head on this homestand? Mfers still ain’t lost a home game, that is just redic! I’ve thought I’ve had them a few times with cws and they blew the games, Stros came out strong last night and rays offense just takes the runs right back. Maybe over a better idea than playing against them? Hell if I know, I believed coming in I could get a W with Stros and at these prices it be worth it but they testing my resolve.
 
aplous said:
Speaking of begging.....White Sox +180ish against Berrios? Struggling to stay off that one...
Click to expand...

I’m just done with cws, I laid -150s w Bassitt yesterday. Granted I trust him to give me a quality start more than I do berrios game to game but Berrios totally capable of limiting this offense. I’m not a big clevinger fan either, he been ok but dude always has guys all over the bases, that scary against jays. Don’t think I’ll have anything on this one.
 
2daBank said:
I’m just done with cws, I laid -150s w Bassitt yesterday. Granted I trust him to give me a quality start more than I do berrios game to game but Berrios totally capable of limiting this offense. I’m not a big clevinger fan either, he been ok but dude always has guys all over the bases, that scary against jays. Don’t think I’ll have anything on this one.
Click to expand...
I’ll likely be on over of some kind
 
Ryno14 said:
I’ll likely be on over of some kind
Click to expand...

White Sox are quickly turning into the worst Mlb future I ever played, lol. Last year the Phillies didn’t look so hot either, I remember I made fun of that one around June and they ended up in WS! I just don’t think it was this bad and I don’t see any glimpse of hope with this team. I thought having a manager other than that washed up drunk TLR would change the culture but being ok as losers is either totally ingrained in this team or they just not that well constructed? I dunno but it ain’t good, this division is easily the worst in baseball so finishing close to the bottom should motivate whole sale changes I would think? I’d tear the whole thing down if they end up below .500!

Far as over tonight I dunno, I don’t trust cws to hit, then again Berrios has put together b2b strong starts (he was forced to leave the tampa game early cause got hit by a come backer), that usually means it about time for him to lay a egg!! Just hard to imagine he has problems w this lineup and his era is still a good 2 runs higher than it should be so he might be good again.

I’d be good with some type of Jays team total over, I’m not a big Clevinger fan at all, dude is so inconsistent, even his “good” starts he is scrambling to get out of trouble with guys all over the bases! Pretty much the exact opposite of Berrios in that I don’t think that 3.26 era he sporting has any chance of holding up! 15 k’s and 11 walks screams 5 era to me, it’s been 3 games in a row with as many walks as strikeouts. He pitches like that tonight and it a good bet jays have sone crooked innings.
 
Mets are another team total over candidate, I don’t know anything bout kid pitching for them other than he walked 4 and only struck out 2 in 5 innings vs Oakland. His minor league numbers nothing to brag about. Against nats I suppose we should probably expect something similar to his triple a numbers, lol.

What I am looking at is Mets offense vs josiah gray. I used to bang the drum for Gray, even coming into this year I looked at him as potentially a guy we could get some value on pitching for a crappy team, unfortunately at age 25 around the time I expect pitchers to take a step he has, it just been a step the wrong freaking direction! For some reason he has all but abandoned his 4 seamer, his pitch mix isn’t ideal to miss bats and it has shown in the results. No clue why he did this? He is getting way more ground balls but his k per 9 and swinging strike rate have both suffered. The ground ball rate is certainly better but far from elite. He has been stranding runners at a much higher clip but it too early for me to say it because he gotten better/learned to buckle down with men on or it just a fluke? I lean to the latter since he not missing bats. His slider and curve seem fine but not close to elite when you see the shape of them, the problem is he didn’t start throwing those more, he throwing some cutter that getting tattooed. I don’t love that this mets 1st game home off long west coast trip but they tagged Gray every time they saw him last year and he has gotten worse while mets offense has gotten better. I don’t think asking Mets to score 5 runs is too much at all, in fact I expected to see a 5.5 here so give me Mets tt ov4.5 -125.
 
Seems a bit odd to me nats team total is 3.5 juiced to under, Mets 4.5 w same juice to over as nats under, yet the game toral is 8.5. Something doesn’t add up, literally, lol.
 
It’s expensive at -150 but man how can ya not like pirates Ff tt ov 1.5? You telling me they can’t plate 2 runs off Syndergaard? I don’t buy it. I like over 3.5 for game also cause I think they score at least 3 off the guy formally known as Thor, his stuff isn’t that good anymore and as I talked about above lefties have hit him more and more every year! I’d like to see the lineup card but it a good bet pirates will have 6 lefties or switch hitters that hit better from left side in lineup. I think Syndergaard numbers are better than his stuff at the moment, the only really good thing I can say about him he seems to have pretty good control with only 4 walks on the season, those all came in his last 2 starts tho. Pirates can get to this dude.
 
2daBank said:
It’s expensive at -150 but man how can ya not like pirates Ff tt ov 1.5? You telling me they can’t plate 2 runs off Syndergaard? I don’t buy it. I like over 3.5 for game also cause I think they score at least 3 off the guy formally known as Thor, his stuff isn’t that good anymore and as I talked about above lefties have hit him more and more every year! I’d like to see the lineup card but it a good bet pirates will have 6 lefties or switch hitters that hit better from left side in lineup. I think Syndergaard numbers are better than his stuff at the moment, the only really good thing I can say about him he seems to have pretty good control with only 4 walks on the season, those all came in his last 2 starts tho. Pirates can get to this dude.
Click to expand...
 
Marsski said:
Click to expand...


Damn, only 5 from left side. That Chinese/Japanese looking guy not in. Still like their chances. What crazy bout this start is Hayes who I think a really good player got off to a terrible start. He gonna be way better than .220ish with .650ish ops before the season over! The fact they winning so much with him underperforming at the top can’t be anything but a great sign. They did struggle score much vs cincy but that a lot of nasty starters that stuff is more like what Synerguaard was 7-8 years ago! They still took all 4 thanks to what a pretty good group of starting pitchers doing their jobs.
 
One the things I’m not sure about with pirates going forward Is Velazquez, I never really liked him, there was I time I labeled him a total gas can. He been straight dealing! Could it be a pitcher went to pirates and got better? That would be a total flip from the norm! That not totally accurate, for most part I think pirates have fixed or resurrected some veteran pitchers, if their young in house kids they don’t seem to have success with..
 
Not thrilled with line move in pirates game, I agree with it but I don’t really like playing late on same side money has moved a line this much for a couple reasons, most obviously I don’t like getting a pick’em price when I coulda got +120ish. Less obvious I’m just not a fan of being on same side as all that money 20 cent or more line moves have never screamed good idea to me.
 
I havnt even looked at pitcher props or the cards game. In between doing some work at house. I probably won’t play any props unless it a west coast game and I’ll look at cards game later on after dinner, they have mostly seemed fairly easy for me to figure out so I’ll take a crack! Just initial thought is over over over, woodford just don’t do it for me and Brebbia ain’t a starter!! I can’t see him going more than 2 innings, anyone know if giants have someone specific piggy backing him or is it gonna be a whole bunch of pen?
 
Jfc. I looked at the lineup @Marsski posted earlier and for some reason didn’t notice till now Reynolds is sitting tonight, that another reason a switch hitter not in lineup, that painful. Makes paying -155 on the Ff tt less appealing.
 
Yordon Alvarez must be hurt? Not in lineup for 2nd day in a row, makes the Astros less appealing, im gonna take this really small and pass on some the things I talked about. Even pirates, sorry if I talked anyone into, I do lean Ff ov 1.5 but best player out and lot of juice not so appealing, had I got line early woulda loved to have +115 or +120 but didn’t get that. All I have

Mets tt ov 4.5
Yankees ml
Cards/giants ov9
 
LAD scores 2 unearned runs and knocks oviedo out with zero hard contact including two bloop singles and a 2-out infield single to shortstop
 
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