Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
May 31 Tue 2022

01:10 PM
965Minnesota Twins - Game #1D. Smeltzer -L-1½
+110		-141O 8½
-125
966Detroit Tigers - Game #1R. Garcia -R+1½
-130		+130U 8½
+105
06:10 PM
967Kansas City RoyalsD. Lynch -L+1½
-150		+129O 9½
-110
968Cleveland GuardiansC. Quantrill -R-1½
+130		-139U 9½
-110
06:45 PM
951San Francisco GiantsJ. Junis -R+1½
-165		+114O 9
-125
952Philadelphia PhilliesR. Suarez -L-1½
+145		-124U 9
+105
07:05 PM
971Los Angeles AngelsN. Syndergaard -R+1½
-168		+118O 8½
-125
972New York YankeesJ. Montgomery -L-1½
+148		-128U 8½
+105
07:07 PM
973Chicago White SoxL. Giolito -R+1½
-145		+153O 7½
-126
974Toronto Blue JaysK. Gausman -R-1½
+125		-166U 7½
+106
07:10 PM
953Washington NationalsP. Corbin -L+1½
-140		+157O 9
-120
954New York MetsT. Williams -R-1½
+120		-171U 9
+100
07:10 PM
981Cincinnati RedsL. Castillo -R+1½
-160		+130O 8½
-120
982Boston Red SoxM. Wacha -R-1½
+140		-141U 8½
+100
07:45 PM
955San Diego PadresB. Snell -L+1½
-180		+114O 8½
-115
956St. Louis CardinalsA. Wainwright -R-1½
+160		-124U 8½
-105
08:05 PM
957Milwaukee BrewersE. Lauer -L-133
958Chicago CubsJ. Steele -L+123
09:40 PM
961Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R-1½
-110		-161O 9
-115
962Arizona DiamondbacksH. Castellanos -R+1½
-110		+148U 9
-105
09:40 PM
979Houston AstrosC. Javier -R-1½
+130		-126O 7
-120
980Oakland AthleticsF. Montas -R+1½
-150		+116U 7
+100
 
Over 8.5 in stl. Waino’s stuff has diminished noticeably imo, he not gonna have a ton of success vs solid lineups. He will battle but think best case is 5-6 innings and 3-4 runs. Cards vs a lefty gotta like them to plate at least 4. Both teams score 4 and it has to go over 8.5! Or pads Ff team total might be a play as well.
 
Wish Torey would have laid him out, it would have been warranted

The shit that refs/umpires can get away with because they're untouchable is criminal
 
Giolito ov 17.5 outs all day. Jays offense hasn’t been anything special, neither these lineups been crushing rhp but unfortunately they not striking out a ton either. Think him going at least 6 innings damn near a foregone conclusion tho. Not sure bout his k’s, think he prob be right around 5-6 so kinda w coin flip. The outs strong tho, -140 not close to accurate representation of his chances to go 6 innings!
 
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2daBank said:
Giolito ov 17.5 outs all day. Jays offense hasn’t been anything special, neither these lineups been crushing rhp but unfortunately they not striking out a ton either. Think him going at least 6 innings damn near a foregone conclusion tho. Not sure bout his k’s, think he prob be right around 5-6 so kinda w coin flip. The outs strong tho, -140 not close to accurate representation of his chances to go 6 innings!
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We're getting to that point in the season that resting bullpen arms will be at a premium too. Condensed schedule and more doubleheaders than usual will probably mean starters in general will go longer than they would in the previous late May to All Star break windows. Probably a lot of this can be exploited with the total outs angle.
 
KJ said:
We're getting to that point in the season that resting bullpen arms will be at a premium too. Condensed schedule and more doubleheaders than usual will probably mean starters in general will go longer than they would in the previous late May to All Star break windows. Probably a lot of this can be exploited with the total outs angle.
Click to expand...

I’m not for sure on this but I think roster sizes back down to normal where they not carrying extra arms like they were allowed to the 1st month cause they shortened spring? Giolito a horse, the only way he not going in 6+ is if he having a crappy gm and his pitch count gets run way up early or he gets blown up, jays aggressive swingers and not fanning a ton, should equate to his pitch count staying reasonably low. He has been really good vs jays last couple years where I think their lineup been better than it is at the moment.
 
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2daBank said:
I’m not for sure on this but I think roster sizes back down to normal where they not carrying extra arms like they were allowed to the 1st month cause they shortened spring? Giolito a horse, the only way he not going in 6+ is if he having a crappy gm and his pitch count gets run way up early or he gets blown up, jays aggressive swingers and not fanning a ton, should equate to his pitch count staying reasonably low. He has been really good vs jays last couple years where I think their lineup been better than it is at the moment.
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I think he's one of the best starters going now regardless
 
Morton ov 5.5 k’s. Overall his numbers look way worse than previous years but I think he has shown sone improvement recently, he has only walked 1 in every one his last 3 starts after struggling w control early, I don’t think his stuff has fallen off as much his swing and miss has this year, and snakes another team we need to start looking to target opposing pitchers k prop cause they have a ton of swing and miss in that lineup! They have fanned in over 28% their AB’s in may and bout them same rate vs rhp on the season. Only O’s have more strike outs in month of may, seems like a good game for Morton to punch out 6-7 at least.
 
2daBank said:
Morton ov 5.5 k’s. Overall his numbers look way worse than previous years but I think he has shown sone improvement recently, he has only walked 1 in every one his last 3 starts after struggling w control early, I don’t think his stuff has fallen off as much his swing and miss has this year, and snakes another team we need to start looking to target opposing pitchers k prop cause they have a ton of swing and miss in that lineup! They have fanned in over 28% their AB’s in may and bout them same rate vs rhp on the season. Only O’s have more strike outs in month of may, seems like a good game for Morton to punch out 6-7 at least.
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Roof open tonight so should be runs, better to go after strikeouts than outs because both pitchers could get run early
 
KJ said:
I think he's one of the best starters going now regardless
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No argument here. I was tempted by him and gausman k’s but think his out total being where it at the strongest of the bunch. He on his best rest and has been fantastic in his 2 starts at Rodgers center.
 
KJ said:
Roof open tonight so should be runs, better to go after strikeouts than outs because both pitchers could get run early
Click to expand...

Damn. I just assumed it was closed. Def prefer his k’s to outs with all the swing and miss in snakes lineup. 8 of the 9 who played yesterday strike out over 25% the time, 4 of them over 30%, that a lot of k’s long as he can get thru the lineup a couple times.
 
I really don’t hate Giolito k prop either. If I coulda got plus money I would have played it also. -115 kinda on the fence since jays slightly below 25% strike outs as a team. Gotta assume with his stuff they be closer to 30% but that still makes it super close by my numbers. Basically think that number is right but I still lean over slightly.
 
2daBank said:
Damn. I just assumed it was closed. Def prefer his k’s to outs with all the swing and miss in snakes lineup. 8 of the 9 who played yesterday strike out over 25% the time, 4 of them over 30%, that a lot of k’s long as he can get thru the lineup a couple times.
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Here's the link, you should bookmark it for capping. Closed tomorrow for the day game.

www.mlb.com

Roof Information | Arizona Diamondbacks

Find out the status of Chase Field's retractable roof for every homestand.
www.mlb.com www.mlb.com
 
Pads Ff team total over 1.5. Continuing to fade waino since I discovered this 1st 5 tt. I just think he at the end and don’t think he gonna have a ton of success vs solid lineups which I think pads are decent. He will grind and battle but think that equates to giving up at least 3 runs in 5 or 6 innings tops.
 
KJ said:
Crazy how clicking on a link has become a ton of work and sadly I get it!
Click to expand...

It was mostly cause I happened to wake up after sleeping a few hours and I was just doing it in bed with my phone. Had I been on laptop I probably woulda looked but saw it was gonna be like 97 degrees and just assumed.
 
You know what they say bout assuming. I honestly can’t say whether knowing roof be opened woulda changed my mind cause now I’m already committed so hard to be unbiased bout it. Obviously I’m more concerned with him getting blown up which be only thing I see keeping him from cashing, of course I’d think managers be more likely to leave guys out there even if they giving up runs kinda like at coors, not like going to the pen early is gonna limit the others teams ability to score.
 
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That all I played on my 1st trip to casino for the day, lol.

Giolito ov 17.5 outs
Morton ov 5.5 k’s
Pads Ff tt ov 1.5

There were still lot of pitchers that wernt on board when I was capping them in middle the night so gonna go back thru and see if there anything else worth making another trip for!
 
2daBank said:
That all I played on my 1st trip to casino for the day, lol.

Giolito ov 17.5 outs
Morton ov 5.5 k’s
Pads Ff tt ov 1.5

There were still lot of pitchers that wernt on board when I was capping them in middle the night so gonna go back thru and see if there anything else worth making another trip for!
Click to expand...
I know you like the whole casino/cash thing but for convenience have you thought about setting up a VPN that would make the signal on your phone appear to be in Illinois? Seems like a no brainer if you want to bet something in a pinch.
 
That price on jays seems crazy high considering I expect Giolito to be really good. I’m sure Gausman will have plenty of success also but that means we talking a close low scoring game, should anyone really be -160 in what should be a pitchers duel? Maybe a cws +1.5/under parlay in order? 7.5 pretty dang low for jays game but think that more perception based than reality since we talking bout a team who ranks 18th in baseball with a .690 ops vs righties.
 
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KJ said:
I know you like the whole casino/cash thing but for convenience have you thought about setting up a VPN that would make the signal on your phone appear to be in Illinois? Seems like a no brainer if you want to bet something in a pinch.
Click to expand...

Yea I’ve thought about, biggest reason I havnt is cause a few my friends that been betting my props online have gotten limited. Suppose there no harm doing it and playing till I do, or maybe I won’t, who knows? I would like a chance to do some same game parlays and have the parlay boost also!
 
2daBank said:
Yea I’ve thought about, biggest reason I havnt is cause a few my friends that been betting my props online have gotten limited. Suppose there no harm doing it and playing till I do, or maybe I won’t, who knows? I would like a chance to do some same game parlays and have the parlay boost also!
Click to expand...
I'd set one up just for the perks or last minute/live wagers. Most of the boosts cap wagers at $25-$50 anyway, you aren't getting stonewalled with those size wagers
 
with the roof open is 9.5 high enough in zona? Castellanos isnt very good plus he only gets ground balls around 35% the time, ball gonna be in the air a lot and should be flying. Morton ground ball rate the lowest of his career at the same 35% as Castellanos, the hr/fb ratio down but i doubt that be the case tonight. Braves been on a every other day kind of thing and only scored 2 last night so if they hold true to form they will score 6+ tonight, cant see snakes being held to less than 3 and def potential for more.
 
KJ said:
I'd set one up just for the perks or last minute/live wagers. Most of the boosts cap wagers at $25-$50 anyway, you aren't getting stonewalled with those size wagers
Click to expand...
i doubt id get limited doing parlays anyways, lol. just stick to doing most the straight wagers at casino could work.. now i just gotta learn how to do that. lol.
 
2daBank said:
i doubt id get limited doing parlays anyways, lol. just stick to doing most the straight wagers at casino could work.. now i just gotta learn how to do that. lol.
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Like anything else, just go to Youtube lol, never thought I could change out a garbage disposal....but Youtube!
 
Picking on Oakland again: kinda like yesterday w Valdez, Javier history vs oak ain’t great but this ain’t exactly the same A’s team after selling off all their big bats. Went with his over 16.5 outs -105 straight and used ov 5.5 k’s in a parlay since it was juicy. The parlay partner was:’

Kirby k’s over 3.5. The juice flying up, it was -160 but now -190, I really don’t understand this number so it prob get hit to 4.5 soon. He kinda boom or bust I guess but he could easily fan 6+ tonight.

halos Ff tt over 1.5., wind blowing out In that park and all I need 2 runs off Montgomery who has given up 2 in most his starts vs lessor lineups than this laa squad? Yes please.

Urias ov 17.5 outs. Kinda scares me cause they often pull him with fairly low pitch count but that is usually after 6innings which he has went in 5 of last 6 including once against these pirates, they had 11 hits that game and he still got thru 6, can’t imagine he gives up that many hits again so he should cakewalk thru another 6inning performance.

Now I’m finished for the night!
 
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Votto hitting .364 vs Wacha in 51 PAs.
Took over 1.5 RHRBIs @ -105 for a half unit. He has a hit in 7/9 since coming off DL.
 
Marsski said:
Votto hitting .364 vs Wacha in 51 PAs.
Took over 1.5 RHRBIs @ -105 for a half unit. He has a hit in 7/9 since coming off DL.
Click to expand...
I have Votto o1.5 total bases +120, something to chew on

One double is a winner
 
they finally put lauer props out. He should fan a bunch of cubs but he wasn’t out when I was there.:
 
Javier is 1-2 with a 6.11 ERA in eight career games (five starts) against Oakland. He pitched in six games against the Athletics in 2021.
Montas is 7-4 all-time against the Astros with a 3.48 ERA in 13 games, 11 of them starts.
Astros are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.
Over is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings.
Javier Last 3 Starts 4.7 ERA
Montas Last 3 Starts 1.84 ERA
 
Vap'sBack said:
Javier is 1-2 with a 6.11 ERA in eight career games (five starts) against Oakland. He pitched in six games against the Athletics in 2021.
Montas is 7-4 all-time against the Astros with a 3.48 ERA in 13 games, 11 of them starts.
Astros are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.
Over is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings.
Javier Last 3 Starts 4.7 ERA
Montas Last 3 Starts 1.84 ERA
Click to expand...
So Warriors in 5?
 
Teapot9 said:
Battling Buckos keep surprising people
Click to expand...

they gotta be costing some ppl a ton with their 4-1 record vs lad., i really like their pitching matchup tonight but i dunno if i want to play them to sweep? that would kill some chasers!! i was shocked when i saw i cashed Urias over 17.5 outs, i didnt think he had a chance to get thru 6 innings way that game was going..
 
Madbum hit his k prop, how bout that? I wasn’t super confident in that one just feel like a must at a lower number against Braves if we expect pitcher to go 5+ innings, they whiff so much! Good move passing on Wright also.
 
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