TNF Discussion

Just can’t see myself backing a banged up eagles squad on a short week on the road. I hate these Thur night games so I dunno if I wanna lay it either?
 
Per Bet Labs

Aaron Rodgers is 20-11-1 ATS as a favorite in primetime games during the regular season

70%+ of spread tickets are on Packers -4 vs. Eagles at Sports Insights contributing books
 
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The Eagles are 4-0 on Thursday Night Football under head coach Doug Pederson (since 2016). That's the most wins without a loss on TNF by any team during that span.

Philadelphia was an underdog in 3 of those 4 games.
 
Global market

Early look is showing the public very high on Green Bay. Not much sharp action going on yet for the side

On the total, sharp action is buying the Under 46.5
 
Hulu said:
I like the over here with Philly getting healthier on offense, and GBs offense improving week by week.

Goes against every fibre of my being to bet an over on Thursday night but sometimes you have to be contrarian.
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I tried really hard to talk myself into the under and couldn’t ever convince myself to pull trigger so maybe you onto something.

Hard to say how good this packers pass defense really is? I thought they would be good coming into the year, they have been excellent, but against who? Freaking trubisky, cousins, and flucco! Not exactly a murders row of passing attacks!! Still think running the ball is best way to attack them but don’t love eagles run game thus far. It was non existent the 1st 2 weeks, they at least had a lot more attempts last week, think they be best served to up that number again here but who knows if they will?

Nobody has run the ball w much success on Philly as of yet, will gb come out slinging it? Their mo seems to be jump on teams early w the passing game then try to run after getting the lead. It has lead to them not doing much scoring in second halves and letting teams back into the game. They might be wise to keep attacking here since this the 1st legit nfl qb they have faced (or in Flacco case not much in way of weapons).

Def feels like a game it gonna take more than 24 to win.
 
Draft Kings Sportsbook


Eagles (+4) ... 28% Handle ... 31% Bets
Packers (-4) ... 72% Handle ... 69% Bets

Over (46.5) ... 76% Handle ... 74% Bets
Under (46.5) ... 24% Handle ... 26% Bets
 
2daBank said:
I tried really hard to talk myself into the under and couldn’t ever convince myself to pull trigger so maybe you onto something.

Hard to say how good this packers pass defense really is? I thought they would be good coming into the year, they have been excellent, but against who? Freaking trubisky, cousins, and flucco! Not exactly a murders row of passing attacks!! Still think running the ball is best way to attack them but don’t love eagles run game thus far. It was non existent the 1st 2 weeks, they at least had a lot more attempts last week, think they be best served to up that number again here but who knows if they will?

Nobody has run the ball w much success on Philly as of yet, will gb come out slinging it? Their mo seems to be jump on teams early w the passing game then try to run after getting the lead. It has lead to them not doing much scoring in second halves and letting teams back into the game. They might be wise to keep attacking here since this the 1st legit nfl qb they have faced (or in Flacco case not much in way of weapons).

Def feels like a game it gonna take more than 24 to win.
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All good points. The pack's defense being improved has been a big story this year but look at who they've played. I think they give up a few more vs a capable offense
 
Bushleague said:
The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September

The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games in September
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And Doug Pederson is 4-0 in TNF games. You can find trends like this for either side. I don't put too much stock into these kind of "trends" with no real sample size...no disrespect, the birds could lose by 30 haha
 
Hulu said:
All good points. The pack's defense being improved has been a big story this year but look at who they've played. I think they give up a few more vs a capable offense
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I think they def are improved, I had them pegged as a boarder line top 10 unit coming into the year. That said we really don’t know how good they are yet, short of playing jets, fish, Steelers (yea you pats! Lol) not sure anyone has had a easier go of it from the defensive side!

On same note I was telling someone last week who was questioning pack offense and try to make a big deal of lafluer/Rodgers bickering to look at the defenses they have faced!! I have very little doubt pack offense will not only improve as the season goes but also a lot of reason it hasn’t been pretty at times is cause they have faced what I would consider all top 5 type defenses! How many offenses wouldn’t struggle some against bears, Vikings, donks? All while breaking in a new system and with them not taking advantage of preseason like far too many teams do now days.

Other than it being Thur night the over def makes a lot of sense. Looks like I have found a play!! Lol. I’m so greedy id like to parlay pack ml w it but think I’ll show some restraint!!
 
The case for the under would be that the Eagles are gonna try to keep the ball out of Rodgers hands by extending drives and running the ball. In the packers last few games they have been susceptible to the run more than the pass, so it might be a grind. Of course, the eagles RBs need to not fumble for that to be a viable angle

If you like player props Im scared shitless of Valdes Scantling
 
D-Woww said:
The case for the under would be that the Eagles are gonna try to keep the ball out of Rodgers hands by extending drives and running the ball. In the packers last few games they have been susceptible to the run more than the pass, so it might be a grind. Of course, the eagles RBs need to not fumble for that to be a viable angle

If you like player props Im scared shitless of Valdes Scantling
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I agree but Eagles just Havnt shown much in way of a sustainable run game. If they do get it going which I think you can run ball on pack it should help more than hurt scoring imo. If pack jump on them as they been doing easy to see them throwing a bunch. I kinda expect Rodgers to hit them for a few big plays early on.
 
Bushleague said:
Draft Kings Sportsbook


Eagles (+4) ... 28% Handle ... 31% Bets
Packers (-4) ... 72% Handle ... 69% Bets

Over (46.5) ... 76% Handle ... 74% Bets
Under (46.5) ... 24% Handle ... 26% Bets
Click to expand...

Where did you get the DK info from? I feel like this is a very good representation of the fish/public as any.
 
Inspekdah said:
Why would Philly's bad defense thus far this season be any better tonight?
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I don’t expect it to be, class relief for packers offense and even banged up the 1st real test for packers defense. Seems to me a real good over other than it being thu night. I think pack put up at least 27 and think it gonna be a tight game.
 
Doesn’t pertain to tonight’s gm but I found it newsworthy....

Jennifer Lopez and Shakira will be the halftime performers for Super Bowl LIV in Miami. Other performers also expected to be added
 
I couldn't name one past halftime show. I’m usually doing something else at halftime. Outside smoking, doing lines, who knows but never really watched a Sb halftime I recall. Lol
 
2daBank said:
I couldn't name one past halftime show. I’m usually doing something else at halftime. Outside smoking, doing lines, who knows but never really watched a Sb halftime I recall. Lol
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Same except I’m checking lines instead of inhaling them.

If they could guarantee a nipslip I’d be in but otherwise there’s better things to do than watch a couple of airheads gyrate.
 
Hulu said:
Same except I’m checking lines instead of inhaling them.

If they could guarantee a nipslip I’d be in but otherwise there’s better things to do than watch a couple of airheads gyrate.
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I mean they hot and all but why wouldn’t I just watch porn if that was my goal??
 
Rodgers pass yards or attempts over? Eagles run D looked solid the 1.5 games I've watched but the secondary can be had. Hopefully LaFluer doesn't try to run Jamaal Williams 15 times.
 
aplous said:
Rodgers pass yards or attempts over? Eagles run D looked solid the 1.5 games I've watched but the secondary can be had. Hopefully LaFluer doesn't try to run Jamaal Williams 15 times.
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I’d think yards more better, def think he will torch them a few times but who knows how much they throw?
 
PointsBet Sportsbook

"An avalanche of money has come in on the Eagles. Now over 60% of money is on Philly after action on the Packers dominated earlier in the week"


Keep in mind this is a Jersey book ... This Philly $$ is almost guaranteed to be all Homer action
 
Inspekdah said:
Asking seriously. Anyone back from injury? I know of the offensive injuries.
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There are two reasons it’s possible even though I’m not saying it’s likely.

1. Darby is out. You would think that would be a bad thing but not with how he’s been playing. Every quarterback so far has picked on him. When he left the game last week their defense was noticeably better

2. The pass rush theoretically should be better than it has been. Fletcher Cox has been nonexistent. Either he’s injured or he’s not trying. But if they get to the quarterback a little bit things will be different.

Realize: seven of the points the Lions scored on them were special teams and a few more points were off of really bad turnovers. The defense actually wasn’t terrible
 
More meaningless stats

Since 2006, Green Bay is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS on TNF with a +10.6 ATS margin. Those numbers are even better since Rodgers became the starter: 4-0 SU & ATS, +13.6 ATS margin.
 
Packers TNF stats are one hail mary away from not being quite as good.

But the point is understood: rodgers is good in prime time. So is doug so far. Somethings gotta give tonight
 
Yeah I like GB 1H too but hard to take a 3 when the FG is 3.5.

If I get a reasonably priced 2.5 I would take it I think
 
Bushleague said:
Per Bet Labs

Aaron Rodgers is 20-11-1 ATS as a favorite in primetime games during the regular season

70%+ of spread tickets are on Packers -4 vs. Eagles at Sports Insights contributing books
Click to expand...

Rodgers

At home in primetime:

20-4 straight up
16-7-1 against the spread


At home vs. playoff team from previous season:

20-4-1 straight up
20-5 against the spread
(Covered 14 of last 15)
 
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