Time to post my week 8 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
I was not a huge fan of last weeks card , and it was not a huge fan of me , as i got pummeled. Rearview mirror now and i am concentrating on this weeks card. More chalk here than at scarfaces house after the police arrive.

locked in:
Northwestern -8
louisville -3
South Florida -2.5
houston -13 added oct 16
cincinnatti/pittsburgh under 50.5 added oct 16
arkansas/mississippi over 54 added oct 16
nevada/utahstate under 65 (leroys) added oct 20

strong leans:

michigan -3
houston -12.5 added to plays oct 16
arkansas -6 eliminated oct 15
oklahoma -28 eliminated oct 14
oregon -11 eliminated oct 16
maryland -5 eliminated oct 14
arizona -10 eliminated oct 16
tcu-3 eliminated oct 16

talk me offs

syracuse -5 eliminated oct 16
texas -26 eliminated oct 14
florida atl -6 eliminated oct 16
wyoming +3 eliminated oct 16
nc state +4.5 eliminated oct 16
Ball st pickem eliminated oct 14
usc -19 eliminated oct 16
 
Last edited:
Worked harder this weekend in preparation for openers than any week since week 1. my quick blurbs for th e locked ins and the strong leans. will make a seperate post for the talk me offs.

northwestern -8 -- northwestern can move the ball and score points against most defenses and bacher has looked better each and every week. eastern michigan does not have the defensive horses to stop the wildcat offense and while their offense woke up somewhat last week vs ohio , there is no way they keep up with northwestern.

louisville -3 -- If louisville lays an egg, uconn is certainly capable of taking advantage but it will take louisville laying that egg. The cardinal should simply torch the husky defense that has yet to face a single decent offense all year. Any defensive output at all from louisville makes this a very likely cover. Not my favorite team to trust but atleast they have played well on the road this year and I like the matchup. Uconn has yet to defend a team that matches up favorably to their strong corners.

South Florida -- line seems very short to me. Rutgers struggles mightily when they are forced to throw and south florida can defend the run with the best of them. Much like Nebraska, at some point I have to determine that I had rutgers overrated preseason. Grothe can make enough plays if the bulls fall behind but if rutgers falls behind teel will have a long long night. showcase game for a team ready to play for the national title if they can run the table. Not a conspiracy theorist but it would also help the big east if usf won here.... not saying ...... i'm just saying.

michigan -- a lot of people get on lloyd carr and rightfully so, but you have to give him credit for righting this ship. The wolverines are now playing some of the best football in the country and seem to have been getting better at defending the spread. Offense should have some success vs illini defense as well. Michigan starting to look like the team i expected to see the first two weeks of the year. illinois is improved for sure but i just don't think they are quite on level with wolverines yet. If any team can have success running it on illinois it is michigan if hart is healthy. have some resident meechigan experts at this site so i will wait to get input from BAR and others as to harts condition and how this game breaks down. but i like michiganin this spot.

Houston -12.5 -- houston had over 700 yards of offense last week vs rice and while they didnt cover , they were impressive. rice had success moving it on houston but uab does not have the same athletes at at wr nor do they run such a complicated system to defend. Houston scores at will as uab has no chance to defend that kind of speed and i think they stop uab enough to make this a woodshedder similar to tulane. Houston is ready to put four quarters in a row together.

Arkansas -6 -- ole miss off a tough loss at home to Bama, inwhich they played well. Arkansas got smacked in the face by auburn in a game they were outmatched from kickoff to final gun ( to my wallets dismay ). this team should wear down the mississippi defense down by pounding them relentlessly with the run. A bit worried about some of the skill players speed on ole miss and also worried about orgeron and adams ability to get the ball to these playmakers in unique ways. orgeron has done a great coaching job this year though it is not showing up in the win column. ole miss covers these home games pretty routinely as a dog and while it is a strong lean ... i am a little bit scared.

oklahoma -28 -- just have to figure out if they want to or not. if they do....... they will.

oregon -11 -- i was the nonbeliever of this team in the preseason but they are just whooping peoples asses on a regular basis. ASU exposed washington defense a bit in second half last week and with usc and cal both losing and with the likelihood of a 1 loss team making it to the bcs championship game ... this team should be as inspired as ever. A lot of points to lay as a road dog in conference to a decent udub team but this duck team is just playing incredible ball. oregon defense defends dixon in practice ... locker should seem easier to catch.

maryland -5 -- if i just spent my time fading virginia on the road i would be a lot less poor than i am now. Maryland plys solid football and is very well coached and it is difficult to move the ball on them in their house. game should be low scoring which makes the 5 seem high to cover. Maryland has played very well vs run first offenses this year.

Arizona -10 -- wildcats are playing great right now ... they are getting better each and every week. Recent success for the TREE has created value here for Arizona. Similar to the Arizona at home to wazzu matchup from earlier this year. Arizona scores early and often and Stanford cant keep up vs a better defense down in the desert.

tcu -3 -- i hate this team, let me get that out of the way. Really hard to trust them to put four quarters together and cover a spread. Not asking them to do much more than win though in this spot. defense should be able to contain johnson and offense is getting better each week though i am still not impressed. close to dropping into my talk me offs and i would certainly prefer seeing a 2.5 before putting my money down.

where are my dogs ??? the other time this year that i was heavy favorite based it worked out and i am pretty confident in all this card. last week i talked myself off a few winners from my strong leans list .... and kept some losers. hope to rebound this week.
 
GL this week VK - like the the UL and NW plays - lean Rutgers though.

Also like basically all of the leans. Only real disagreement is Arky. It is a good match-up for them, but I still think that this team sucks and they have yet to prove me otherwise.

Looks a like a rebound week to me - terrible moose on South Car. btw.
 
good luck bro..with you on USF...the conspiracy theory is not far fetched.
 
thanks dmoney.

i actually dont consider the gamecock game a moose. the tarheels arguably should ahve won outright as they dropped a sure td pass, and they also missed and extra point and a field goal. never seen spurrier so scared to throw ... and after he torched the tarheel secondary in the first half, he basically went run run run in the second and could not pick up a first down .... it seemed as if he was getting very angry with the ol and was determined that they run it ... without first downs the defense got exhausted in the second half. the fresnst/idaho total was a moose .. not sure about the gamecock contest.
 
talk me off blurbs

syracuse -5 -- orange will be up for this game as it actually matters to them how they do vs their neighbor to the west. Of course Buffalo will be up for it as well. Bottom line is tht syracuse recruits better athletes and while syracuse has been getting smoked it has been against the following competition .... washington , iowa , illinois , west virginia and rutgers. they played pretty much even with the other mac team that they played. That team was miami ohio which i have rated as better than buffalo in the mac ... and unlike the redhawks, the cuse gets the buffalo game at home. hard to actually pull a trigger on laying points with the orange. i had the balls earlier this year to pull the trigger with temple as a favorite and ironically it was against buffalo. buffalo smoked the owls of course.

texas -26 -- Cobwebs seemed to clear from mccoys head lately and he is playing great football. this team played even with the sooners two weeks ago and stomped all over an atrocious , pathetic , disgusting football teamlast week. No they aren't playing iowa state again ... but they are playing baylor. half the stadium will be in burnt orange and texas always seems to kick the bears ass. they can power run them , they can throw and they should get good pressure on the baylor qb. only real concern for me in this game is that baylor likes to throw and texas has been victimized by quite a few long passes this year.

florida atlantic -6 --- florida atlantic is coming off of a bye and schnellenberger will have them ready for this conference contest. fla atl was shut out at home last year when these two teams met and i like the revenge angle off the bye in this one. ummm laying 6 on the road in the sunbelt ,,...... no wonder i am losing money this year.

wyoming +3 -- i like glenn to get his guys to rebound this week after the home loss to lobos last week. wyoming just shuts down the run and that is basically what air force brings to the table. coming off a loss and with success of falcons season you don't have to worry about cowboys being focused or not. also a revenge game for wyoming. low scoring game is likely making the points all the more valuable. actually , this game is kind of growing onme.

ncstate +4.5 -- again like a team with the extra week to prepare, especially with obrien. ecu defense has been unexpectantly bad this year and the offense ahs relied heavily on big plays. outside of fbs wofford ( pretty decent team too ) this is the easiest game on ncstates schedule this year. I made this game ecu -1 so there was value in the line ..... i have not seen either of these teams play much this year and lack confidence in what their identities are .. makes putting my money on this one difficult.

usc -19 -- not sure how notre dame gets a first down in this one and with short fields usc should get enough to cover this one. but with young receivers and questionable qb play ... can usc throw with success ?? lining it up and pounding it on the irish is not a good recipe to move it consistently on them in southbend. Also ... where is usc signature win this year ??? thought it would have been at nebraska but that doesnt look nearly as impressive anymore ... idaho ? no. wazzu ? no . washington ? hardly impressive. stanford ?? har har they lost. Arizona ?? barely won. if usc is anywhere close to being for real , they show up and put it on notre dame .. if not they dont deserve to be anywhere close to the top 10.
 
Vegas - Been doing some research, and Teams in the Bottom 6 of Turnover Margin are 11-20 ATS (35%) and teams in the Bottom 10 of Yards allowed are 24-35 ATS (41%). NC State and Syracuse fall into these two categories, respectively. I am almost definitely fading both, especially getting points with Buffalo.

I'm also agaisnt you on Louisville strictly from a ATS stats standpoint, as Teams in the Top 6 in Yards allowed (UCONN) are 24-12 ATS this year (66%).

Thats about all I've gotten into at this point. Tomorrow I will start looking at power rankings and situational aspects. Just a heads up, GL this week. :shake:
 
ramble - thanks for the heads up bro. believe me i am in no hurry to lay points with the orange ..... but they dont want to start to lose the locals to buffalo of all places......
 
UConn is the only game I'm pretty sure I'll be playing at this point...so it sucks to see I'm against you on that one. I do like the NW bet, though.
 
i despise it when you are against me on a play as for the most part you have been on the right side of our disagreements. i have a lot of confidence in ul offense putting up enough points but the defense is always a big question of course. did you make a total for this game lindetrain ? Also, I have reasons to believe that ul gets up for this game almost as much as uconn.
1. uconn's record
2. still in hunt for big east title
3. brohm on national tv
4. coaches can point to uconns statistical ranking as a defense. they are a good defense but not as good as the stats say but it could motivate the cardinal offennse

I realize that uconn is improved from last year and ul is down from last year but there is a lot of the same talent on the field now that was there in the final game of last year when the cardinals bitch slapped uconn. Uconn did have some injuries and suspensions for that game however and lorenzen is so much better than any qb they had last year.

louisville has also played much better on the road than at home for whatever reason this year.

obviously my power rankings now should be more accurate than in the preseason .... but i don't even want to discuss how big the line for this game would have been using my preseason rankings..... i think uconn has overachieved and i think ul has underachieved and that has given value to the line.

Also, Brown missed a lot of action last week and i would certainly check on his status prior to betting the huskies. i lost a few bets last year when i did not believe in rutgers until it was too late and now i may be losing a bet because i do not believe in uconn. i also remember from my thread last week that pags was impressed with this uconn team. always worried when good cappers think a lot more or a lot less of a team than i do but i think there is too much value in this line to pass up. i will take the superior athletes of the cardinals in this one and then watch uconn move the ball up and down the field on that poor excuse of a defense that ul sports. lind , maybe you can get a 4.5 before weeks end and we can middle this puppy. also grats on that kentucky win... impressive stuff.
 
kyle,

thanks for mentioning me...wanted to let you know that after talking with Sea Bass it looks as though there might have been some disciplinary action with Brown this past week vs. UVA (which really hurt them inside the 20)...Dixon is more the guy they use between the twenties, but Brown gains the tough yards...I anticipate he will play this week, but have capped the game as though he won't (if that makes any sense at all)...I watched every play of the game this week, and can still say that I'm impressed with Connecticut (and UVA for that matter)...they had several key negative plays, but still played very sound football...from what I read, the WR's for Louisville are still banged up and they are still having trouble with their running game (check this week's box score)...combined with their defensive problems I just can't warrant them being a 3 point road favorite here vs. Connecticut (especially on a week night ESPN game)...
 
kyle,

sorry to ramble, but I'm hoping you'll reconsider your Maryland lean...I think this game will go down to the wire and could be in the high teens to mid twenties...I'd rather have the points than lay them here, especially since I think Virginia has the more physical defense (I can't begin to tell you how impressed I am with Howie Long's kid, Chris)...
 
eliminated oklahoma and maryland from my strong leans in addition to ball state and texas from my talkme offs.

oklahoma and texas --- failed a fundamental of laying over 24 on the road. i am not going to break a basic rule without incredible cause and given how my season has gone so far i need to stay disciplined more than ever.

ball st -- not going to lie, i just am terrible at capping games involving mac teams and both of these teams are so inconsistent that i can realistically see either winning.

maryland -- if this game gets to a 3 i may reconsider it and the number has been consistently falling since open, so there may yet be a chance. There is a chance that neither of these teams hits 20 points and i dont want to lay over a field goal in a game like that, although the match up and the spot favor maryland a bit. may look at the under in this game when the total comes out but i doubt we see anything but a low number there too.
 
Good stuff VK...I would share my thoughts on UConn but it is not worth it as I see no point in trying to make you less comfortable with a play you've already locked in...
 
HUNTDOG said:
good luck bro..with you on USF...the conspiracy theory is not far fetched.
Click to expand...
I don't get this guys...if this was the case why wouldn't Ville have won at RU last year..Ville was the Big East chance to send a team to the title game.

This is the same type of game..

Pandomonium in Pascataway!
 
pags11 said:
kyle,

sorry to ramble, but I'm hoping you'll reconsider your Maryland lean...I think this game will go down to the wire and could be in the high teens to mid twenties...I'd rather have the points than lay them here, especially since I think Virginia has the more physical defense (I can't begin to tell you how impressed I am with Howie Long's kid, Chris)...
Click to expand...
Injuries are really starting to mount for the Hoos...I'd check that..esp on skill positions on offense.
 
Great stuff in this thread VK, best of luck to ya this week. I have a writeup of the Buffalo game in my thread if you wanna check it out. I jumped on Buffalo when the line opened by the way in case you are interested. Don't have major issues with any of your other plays, just didn't make the cut for me as they were all within the margin of error so to speak as far as my projections go.
 
The common thought is that Syracuse should be able to handle Buffalo, but if you throw out the Louisville game, they have been awful everywhere (home and away) and I could never imagine watching a 1-6 team try and cover 5.
 
lindetrain -- obviously i can't get out of my bet if you were to give me thoughts that were strong enough to change my mind unless a middle opportunity arose but your thoughts are always welcome in my threads and i think others reading (in addition to me ) that are considering a bet on this game would like as much info as possible. in other words ... feel free to add any opinions and information to my thread.

BAR -- lets cash that wildcat ticket !

Aztec -- thanks Azzie

jump - you make a good point about the ville at rutgers last year. conspiracy theory was more of a joke than an angle .... i'm just saying.

carolinablue -- i am going to cut and paste your buffalo writeup into my thread. not sure if this is proper to do or not but if you dont want it in here i can delete it.

kobe -- line is dropping and i think it touched 3 earlier. will not ahve to lay 5 with the cuse. not comfortable laying 3 with these suckers either though.

eliminated arkansas today as a possible play.
 
This is from carolinablues thread for this week titled "Carolinablue week 8 plays and discussion"


BUFFALO +6.5 at Syracuse

This one is pretty much an even matchup of two teams hungry for a win. Cuse gets the nod by a FG or so because they are playing at home, but otherwise this one is a coin flip in my book. The deciding factor for me is the fact that Buffalo has found a consistent running game, and that will pose problems for a Syracuse team that has had their challenges stopping the run so far this year. In terms of athletes, I would say these two are pretty equal, and both teams do an ok job of protecting the football, so I will take my 6.5 in what should be a FG game either way.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->__________________
 
Good stuff Kyle. I think you're spot on on that Houston analysis. I might have to play that one too. Liking Arizona a lot as well.

Good luck this week bro.:shake:
 
For the record "crunched" the numbers and Syracuse, who has been a dog all year is 1-6 both SU and ATS, meaning that win @ Louisville is their only high note on the year.
 
jumponboard,

even with tailback peerman out last week, the offense still managed to move the ball...Groh is a good underdog coach and a bad favorite coach...with the way the defense has been playing lately, I'll take my chances with the 5.5 points...
 
ok added three plays to the card today:

houston -13
bearcats/panthers under 50.5
razorbacks/rebels over 54

i eliminated all other games save michigan from my leans list and this looks to be the heart of my card for the weekend. rumor has it that BAR and Huntdog might be starting a thread about the meechigan/illini game so i am waiting to read that before playing or dumping that game.
 
Counselor -- i made this line nevada 7.5 so i find no value in betting it. Could have made the line higher if i was confident that the nevada qb is for real. looks like he may be ... but i need to see more snaps from him first. basically no value in the line as far as i am concerned.

spanishshark -- go bulls !
 
Vegas -

I know you're against me on Houston, and that kind of worries me. This year has been a crazy year - and we all know that road favorites have been going down........on the ML.........all year. Houston has a damn good offense and UAB gives up yards like they were the plague..... but Houston can't stop a damn soul. This game reminds me of the Tulsa/UAB game when Tulsa was laying -18 to -23 and won the game by 8. Teams with good offenses and horrible defenses just aren't covering this year. I bet Houston -21 small against Rice, and they barely won the game. Houston laying 13 on the road would have gotten my bet at the beginning of the year, but after the way this year has gone, I have a feeling we're going to see an upset here.....however weird it may seem. Small play for me here, though, so don't worry. :shake:
 
ramble -- i am 19-21-2 to date ........ i wouldn't be too worried about being against me this year ... previous years sure... but i am not getting it done to this point in 2007. i may include an analysis of my plays this year, my record with away favorites , home dogs , etc etc .. in my next weeks "time to post.." thread. i certainly think you have a better chance now that houston has to fly and play the same day. i have uab rated in my bottom 8 teams in the fbs... houston needs the game .. uab has looked awful despite doing well in turnover department and houston has been playing through a lot of turnovers this year. speed of houston should kill unless they have "airplane legs". uab lacks talent on offense and there is just no way that i see them winning this game. but like i said .... i am getting pummeled ... especially last week and you hit your stride last week with an amazing performance ( grats btw ). If i lose my bet , i can atleast take solace in the fact that you are cashing one somewhere. gl this week ramble ... more so with your other games than this one but still ..hehe
 
i talked myself off a few winners from my strong leans list .... and kept some losers. hope to rebound this week.

I found that to be true in my case some years back, so now I play em all. Think about it. Or do a litle historical analysis.
Great thread by the way
GL<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
GL Kyle.

Hope you checked out my thread about Houston this week, it is some interesting shit, might change your play.
 
thansk ynn.

i did catch your thread on the travel issues with houston. i am not sure how to quantify this problem other than to have some level of confidence that it can only hurt my side of the game. i already bet the game , so reconsidering is difficult as i am not a fan of betting back on the other side and eating the juice. This shows why my friend has constantly referred to UH as Houston High School. How in the world does this happen ???

hopefully the staggering mismatch on the field will take hold for me and they won't have "airplane legs".
 
adding:

nevada/utahstate under 65 (leroys)

this game was on the verge of being a play earlier in the week. it is going to be very cold and windy today. it is also likely to be wet, making it even colder for the players. should be worth a td towards the under and that makes this a play.
 
VK - Great thread and best of luck, wish I could of stopped by earlier in the week to share some thoughts but was pretty busy.
 
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