Week 8 Discussion Thread

pressitup said:
Last 3 games lost by7,7,8 all well within the inflated line
If your getting 21.5 vs. the undefeated UTSA and stay within a td. you're playing hard,
Could be the bookmakers don't have a handle on these guys.
Played Utah St to within 4.

Tough for me is if I go get some more.
Click to expand...

Yea no doubt. I hadn’t paid lot of attention to them but def playing well above their expectations. I was thinking this have to be low scoring as hell but just looked and see 44, don’t think I like either defense enough to play under that.
 
+6 with my local, will wait to see what it is closer to gametime
I can find nothing on either qb
 
mcculran said:
What do you think about your utes this week? They appear to have turned a corner and are playing like alot of us thought they would…
Click to expand...
Here's a take from someone that's seen both teams play.......

just finished watching a bit of film from a few Oregon State games this year, and a few things stood out to me that I think will be key for Utah to win this game. It seems apparent to me that Utah is the more talented team overall, but the Beavers have some dudes that will make you pay if you don't watch out for them.

The biggest key for winning, in my opinion, will be assignment-sound defensive line play, particularly from the ends. Against USC, Oregon State was able to kill the Trojans with some big gains on the ground that resulted from a defensive end misreading a play. OSU runs the read option really well, but there were so many times that USC had a defensive end crash down and completely miss who had the ball.

Along with point number 1, I think it would be smart to have either Devin Lloyd or Brandon McKinney spy the QB a good amount of the time. OSU's QB can make some throws, but he isn't an elite passer. However, he's explosive and seems good at picking his moments to scramble and break off big gains.

The other threat I see on offense is Tyjon Lindsey, WR #1. He's a bit on the smaller side, but has great speed and can create separation on deep routes. There were several moments against USC where the Beavers were able to get big gains through the air thanks to good play design and poor coverage by the Trojans, but #1 was simply able to beat his man in one-on-one matchups to make some big plays as well. I suspect that Clark Phillips will be tasked with covering Lindsey for most of the day.

On defense, I don't see too much from the Beavers that really scares me. Their pass rush is just so-so, as is their run defense. I think that Utah will be able to move the ball consistently on the ground and will have plenty of opportunities to make plays through the air as well by exploiting some matchup mismatches with the tight ends and bigger receivers like Vele and Enis. One thing I noticed is that, though the OSU defense doesn't have many, if any, elite athletes on it, they are opportunistic and tenacious, and will fight to make big plays.

I think Oregon State's best chance to win this is in a shootout, and if Utah plays smart, assignment sound ball on defense against the run, I don't see that happening.
 
I think you guys are giving Pitt too much credit. Their secondary is awful. I think the odds makers have finally adjusted a Clemson game appropriately. Clemson‘s offense has not been good but despite that and the injuries they lost to the #1 team in the country by a score and on the road in overtime at NC State. I like Clemson to win SU.
 
Man, tough loss for you unlv backers. I thought they pretty much controlled the game thru 3 quarters, I turned it off before the 4th, had a feeling rebs were gonna do what they do and botch it.
 
2daBank said:
Man, tough loss for you unlv backers. I thought they pretty much controlled the game thru 3 quarters, I turned it off before the 4th, had a feeling rebs were gonna do what they do and botch it.
Click to expand...
Ended up with a live over 44 after seeing some of the game and just knew a 23-20 final was coming somehow.
 
C-MAN said:
I think you guys are giving Pitt too much credit. Their secondary is awful. I think the odds makers have finally adjusted a Clemson game appropriately. Clemson‘s offense has not been good but despite that and the injuries they lost to the #1 team in the country by a score and on the road in overtime at NC State. I like Clemson to win SU.
Click to expand...
I don’t think their secondary is as bad as it looks. Take a look at their games….they have been leading (tied 1 time w/ wm) every game at the half. Most times they are up double digits, so of course teams have to air it out. Knowing that, nardo keeps everything in front, lets them play dink & dunk and makes the other team execute length-of-the-field drives. Def yds/pt is still decent…actually pitt’s pass D is comparable to cuse’s ypp and better overall yds/pt. and besides, at what point has DJ U given anybody the impression he was gonna carve up any secondary? Not never is the answer
 
C-MAN said:
I think you guys are giving Pitt too much credit. Their secondary is awful. I think the odds makers have finally adjusted a Clemson game appropriately. Clemson‘s offense has not been good but despite that and the injuries they lost to the #1 team in the country by a score and on the road in overtime at NC State. I like Clemson to win SU.
Click to expand...

i think pitt secondary is overly aggressive which leads to them getting burnt,, believe me that def my biggest concern with them,. it what i mention every week when talking bout them, whether i play them usually comes down to if i think a team can exploit their back end, i really dont think DJ has proven he can consistently do that, especially when im pretty confident he will be under a lot of pressure. ive seen teams who run stunts and other games up front give the clemson oline a lot of problems and i love the way pitt does just that with the 11th best sack rate in the country. clemson no slouches getting pressure either but pitt oline has been fantastic protecting Pickett,. i think pitt has one the best defenses in the acc and ive seen clemson struggle to consistently move the ball on what i think are lessor defenses. they havnt scored more than 21 in any acc game, i think at this point the sample is plenty big to say this is what they are. could they hit a couple shot plays on pitt? absolutely but i dont think they will be able to consistently drive the field the rest the time as i think pitt will.. certainly possible i am wrong, wouldnt be the 1st time! but pitt is my favorite play on the card.. health
 
far as whether the clemson lines are now adjusted enough i think pretty debatable,, appears there a pretty big difference of opinion as every time pitt gets hit at -3 and line goes up them clemson gets hit and it comes back down.. makes me happy we have this difference of opinion as it would worry me if it was all pitt money and line continued to go up. one the podcast i listen to mentioned if you still incorporate last years numbers as many power rankings still do there would be value in clemson, but if you only interested in more recent games this line be short.. at this point and considering how different clemson is than last year i dont think it makes sense to incorporate any last years numbers. tigers havnt covered a acc spread so i would argue they still getting too much respect. guess it comes down to what you think of pitt, it no secret i really like them, think they the best team in the acc, ive bet them in every game with another team on their level so obviously i think they being undervalued, they have covered all 3 of those games fairly easily (vols was a tough one). so for me one team still being overvalued based off past seasons and name while the other is better than they been getting credit for.. this will def tell me a lot if im right about how good i think pitt is, particularly the offense and Pickett as this be their toughest test to date on that side the ball.. Pickett has really shit the bed in this game so far in his career, i think he has really improved tho and he exercises the demons in a big way here..
 
the one time clemson did score 21 against ncst 7 of those came in ot so they yet to break 19 points in regulation vs any power 5 team,, it would be pretty disappointing to me if pitt all a sudden let them break out and score the mid 20s i think it would take for tigers to have a chance,, really dont think they can keep pitt from scoring 24 minimum, honestly think pitt can get 27-31 range.. i could be too high on that tho, that why i didnt really want to lay more than -3, i do think it possible clemson defense continues to be really strong once teams get inside the 40, if they can keep this another super low scoring game i still think pitt will win but by a fg certainly possible. i do like the fact the total has been bet up some, makes me think im right bout pitt being able to score, then again maybe they think tigers can get into the 20s? either way i do think the higher scoring it is the better it is for pitt..
 
as well it seems like vols coach has things going the right direction i still scratch my head wondering why they didnt start the year with hooker?
 
2daBank said:
you gotta be pretty happy with programs trajectory right?
Click to expand...
Yep. I was completely wrong about Hooker and you were right on. From all reports though, Hooker improved a ton in practice and preparation early in the season and took off and looked completely different than all spring/fall camp. Sometimes guys just need to get game action. I'll always trust Heupel with QBs so I believe that Hooker wasn't the guy early on. Definitely excited he has another year as well.
 
Ryno14 said:
Yep. I was completely wrong about Hooker and you were right on. From all reports though, Hooker improved a ton in practice and preparation early in the season and took off and looked completely different than all spring/fall camp. Sometimes guys just need to get game action. I'll always trust Heupel with QBs so I believe that Hooker wasn't the guy early on. Definitely excited he has another year as well.
Click to expand...

being the acc nut i am i just saw how much better Vtech got when they put Hooker in last year. big mistake by them letting him get away!! i almost always defer to the coaches with those decisions, i mean not only do they know more football than any of us they also around these guys every day, maybe it was just a matter of learning the offense?
 
i just wasted 5 min of my life looking at mtsu/ucon! lol.. jfc how do you cap this game??? i almost want to say ucon just might be able to run the ball!! both teams run d is freaking wretched but ucon actually has ok rushing numbers which mtsu doenst get 3ypc. of course ucon has played the lowest rated schedule which makes their record and stats even more comical!! call me crazy but i think ucon can hang around in this one! tonight all about some really bad teams laying a bunch of points to even worse teams! lol, fun!!
 
anyone know Tyler jr status for utah st tonight? i think there a big dropoff in the rb's after tyler who is pretty good. says he left last game with a head injury so i assume he probably out?
 
took colorado state some time this year and getting to play some bad teams but think they starting to more resemble what i thought they could be coming into the year,, def think they have the right and headed in right direction, on the other hand think utah st has gotten progressively worse.. rams have the better d by a mile and should control the game with the rushing attack.. -2.5 seems like the play to me..
 
was the 1st move on csu a dummy to get utah state above +3? dont recall seeing many games that bounce so much above and back below 3, im sure books hate to do that as they run a risk of getting hit on both sides!!
 
ucon riding the wave of getting a win? i dont even think it matters it was a ivy league school, at this point i think beating a high school team would be a confidence boost for ucon!!! they hung in games with vandy and wyo, i dont think mtsu much better than either of them. the marshall win looks like a total outlier. mtsu hasnt been able to cover much getting anywhere from 10 to 20 points against decent teams, certainly teams much better than ucon..

i cant believe im even considering these freaking games!!! i passed on the ull/arky st under last night and liked it better than these, just scares me to play under on totals like that game last night. even with the scoreless 1st qrtr it still had a shot to go over 70! lol.. i should probably stick to my rule that if i wouldnt play these games on Saturday i shouldnt play them just cause they on!!! no chance i would be considering ucon or zona,, Colorado st on the other hand, pretty confident to say i be looking at this one even if it was a Saturday.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
I think the O52 is in play....WF dropping 35 minimum in all 6 games....Army defense is thin and tired after playing Wisconsin. WF D can be ran on as seen vs L Ville and Cuse....Hard for me to too see both defenses playing lights out vs teams that have offenses the other is most vulnerable to....I see no reason both teams dont hit at least 24....maybe a 1st half 0ver 26/27 play is in order as WF will have to adjust things a bit at halftime to stop the option...
Click to expand...

im totally with you on this, after you brought up it became way easier for me to cap looking more total than side.. if the line is correct and it a close game id be shocked if they didnt fly past 52,, i was kinda waiting out weather but now it appears the rain chance minimal. this seems way low, probably based off some army games propensity to be low scoring, that is very style dependent tho, of course they gonna be in low scoring games vs the likes of wiscy and some mac teams. when army played wku we saw 73 points!! wake doest go as fast as wku but think their offense is gonna be equally problematic for army to stop.. agree i dont think wf gonna be able to stop the option attack, that dive play gonna be a problem for them. as of now this my favorite total on the board, i do think wake is the right side but over feels stronger to me,,, long as it competitive think it hits 60.. i dont like the idea of just 1st half, understand the thinking but we then run a risk of a 10 min army drive beating us, i think we can withstand a few long army drives and still get the game over, could be tougher for just a half tho.. even if wake adjust if they in fact do have to make adjustments im gonna assume that means they getting wore down!!!

great call going unlv 1st half opposed to game by the way,, you were spot on with how that might play out to screw rebs full game bettors..
 
anyone have any clue about this memphis/ucf game? i dont.. huge line swing in mem favor.. i get told im wrong about this theory but i hate playing teams that open as dogs and close as favs, dont even care if i beat the move and got the "value" as never seems to pan out.. someone told me this a long time ago and i agreed with the logic,, simply trust the guys making the lines more than the money that moves them!! i often play against these moves blind and generally works out more often than not. only one i recall this year was gophers at colorado, minny opened as favs and got bet to dogs, proceeded to beat the buffs down in a game that wasnt even close..
 
2daBank said:
anyone have any clue about this memphis/ucf game? i dont.. huge line swing in mem favor.. i get told im wrong about this theory but i hate playing teams that open as dogs and close as favs, dont even care if i beat the move and got the "value" as never seems to pan out.. someone told me this a long time ago and i agreed with the logic,, simply trust the guys making the lines more than the money that moves them!! i often play against these moves blind and generally works out more often than not. only one i recall this year was gophers at colorado, minny opened as favs and got bet to dogs, proceeded to beat the buffs down in a game that wasnt even close..
Click to expand...
As I said yesterday, I liked the over in the majority of these T/F games this week. This one was my favorite. Have O64 and would take up to 65. Haven't locked anything else in yet.
 
that said im having a pretty hard time convincing myself to play ucf.. is that move strictly been money or is there other news? (obviously im not talking about lines that switch based off injury or other info the comes out after lines out).. my question here if it simply money moving this line then why the hell did books make ucf favs in the 1st place? is their power ranking still being based off games they played with Gabriel at qb?
 
Ryno14 said:
As I said yesterday, I liked the over in the majority of these T/F games this week. This one was my favorite. Have O64 and would take up to 65. Haven't locked anything else in yet.
Click to expand...

i could maybe get behind this one.. i thought you still might have a shot on the ull/arky st game even after the 1st qrtr,, since i didnt bet the under i was rooting for my lean to be wrong!
 
2daBank said:
i could maybe get behind this one.. i thought you still might have a shot on the ull/arky st game even after the 1st qrtr,, since i didnt bet the under i was rooting for my lean to be wrong!
Click to expand...
Yeah. Amazing. 0 in 1st and 4th and 55 in-between. Still had a winning day with other bets, but that and Charlotte being the most inept goal line time I've seen ever, was frustrating 6:30 slot.
 
Ryno14 said:
As I said yesterday, I liked the over in the majority of these T/F games this week. This one was my favorite. Have O64 and would take up to 65. Haven't locked anything else in yet.
Click to expand...
You think about 1h overs at this point with Memp games? Tired of them doing absolutely nothing in the 2h when it's on pace to go well over at HT
 
Ryno14 said:
Yeah. Amazing. 0 in 1st and 4th and 55 in-between. Still had a winning day with other bets, but that and Charlotte being the most inept goal line time I've seen ever, was frustrating 6:30 slot.
Click to expand...

after the 3rd qrtr i thought you had it for sure! i was telling the old lady how glad i was i passed on the under, lol. no points in the 1st qrtr didnt shock me so much but none in the 4th was weird considering.. easier to laugh at if ya had a winning day anyways!
 
KJ said:
You think about 1h overs at this point with Memp games? Tired of them doing absolutely nothing in the 2h when it's on pace to go well over at HT
Click to expand...
Certainly a valid point, but last week was certainly more on Navy not being competitive. I think this is going to be a competitive game and back and forth. If it happens again where the 2H dies, then so be it.
 
Ryno14 said:
Certainly a valid point, but last week was certainly more on Navy not being competitive. I think this is going to be a competitive game and back and forth. If it happens again where the 2H dies, then so be it.
Click to expand...
It's happened at least 3 times this season I can think of though
 
2daBank said:
im totally with you on this, after you brought up it became way easier for me to cap looking more total than side.. if the line is correct and it a close game id be shocked if they didnt fly past 52,, i was kinda waiting out weather but now it appears the rain chance minimal. this seems way low, probably based off some army games propensity to be low scoring, that is very style dependent tho, of course they gonna be in low scoring games vs the likes of wiscy and some mac teams. when army played wku we saw 73 points!! wake doest go as fast as wku but think their offense is gonna be equally problematic for army to stop.. agree i dont think wf gonna be able to stop the option attack, that dive play gonna be a problem for them. as of now this my favorite total on the board, i do think wake is the right side but over feels stronger to me,,, long as it competitive think it hits 60.. i dont like the idea of just 1st half, understand the thinking but we then run a risk of a 10 min army drive beating us, i think we can withstand a few long army drives and still get the game over, could be tougher for just a half tho.. even if wake adjust if they in fact do have to make adjustments im gonna assume that means they getting wore down!!!

great call going unlv 1st half opposed to game by the way,, you were spot on with how that might play out to screw rebs full game bettors..
Click to expand...
Yep. One of those plays Im willing to make knowing exactly what Im going to get out of Army. They are one of the few teams you can count on to do exactly what you expect....with NAVY & AF....with Miss St and Western Kentucky being the inverse offensive style. If it loses it loses, but I think this has a good chance to be 21-14 at half and a final in the neighborhood of 38-28 is what Im looking at.

Speaking of which, the FIU/WKU O77 & the WKU TT O46 is a must play this weekend. If they dont put up 60 on FIU i will be fairly surprised. They hung 43 last week, and had to settle for 3 fgs when they could have easily been tds....Both teams near the bottom of all defensive categories, especially against the pass FIU gives up 295 and WKU 278....I fully expect to see 1,200 yards of offense as both teams are pass heavy and should both hit 40 points....WKU wins 65-45
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Yep. One of those plays Im willing to make knowing exactly what Im going to get out of Army. They are one of the few teams you can count on to do exactly what you expect....with NAVY & AF....with Miss St and Western Kentucky being the inverse offensive style. If it loses it loses, but I think this has a good chance to be 21-14 at half and a final in the neighborhood of 38-28 is what Im looking at.

Speaking of which, the FIU/WKU O77 & the WKU TT O46 is a must play this weekend. If they dont put up 60 on FIU i will be fairly surprised. They hung 43 last week, and had to settle for 3 fgs when they could have easily been tds....Both teams near the bottom of all defensive categories, especially against the pass FIU gives up 295 and WKU 278....I fully expect to see 1,200 yards of offense as both teams are pass heavy and should both hit 40 points....WKU wins 65-45
Click to expand...

I havnt looked yet cause my 1st thought was like “damn, they have finally figured Wku out!”,, maybe not high enough tho? I actually talked about liking the under last week but I didn’t have the stones to play it! Lol. Pretty much I either play the over or pass, I’m not gonna start trying to get cute and play the under even when I think it the right play! I don’t know anything bout fiu but I’ll look into it tonight.
 
2daBank said:
i just wasted 5 min of my life looking at mtsu/ucon! lol.. jfc how do you cap this game??? i almost want to say ucon just might be able to run the ball!! both teams run d is freaking wretched but ucon actually has ok rushing numbers which mtsu doenst get 3ypc. of course ucon has played the lowest rated schedule which makes their record and stats even more comical!! call me crazy but i think ucon can hang around in this one! tonight all about some really bad teams laying a bunch of points to even worse teams! lol, fun!!
Click to expand...
I played mtsu TT over. I do think uconn competes tho
 
2daBank said:
took colorado state some time this year and getting to play some bad teams but think they starting to more resemble what i thought they could be coming into the year,, def think they have the right and headed in right direction, on the other hand think utah st has gotten progressively worse.. rams have the better d by a mile and should control the game with the rushing attack.. -2.5 seems like the play to me..
Click to expand...
Played the game under. Dont think either offense rates to have much success
 
2daBank said:
was the 1st move on csu a dummy to get utah state above +3? dont recall seeing many games that bounce so much above and back below 3, im sure books hate to do that as they run a risk of getting hit on both sides!!
Click to expand...
Obv more a factor in nfl than college, historically. But 3 has become less of a “key number” the last few years in nfl with longer xp. I think books will take what they can get on friday night game!
 
I'm expecting Pitt vs Clemson to be one of the best games of the week for sure. Pitt overall numbers likely inflated some vs the likes of UMass and New Hampshire. And for as far as WMich is a good MAC O, they are not a good MAC D. Pitt is very capable O, but vs Clemson D, that will be something to watch.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

mrpickem
Week 5 ~ 🏈😎👌💥
Replies
6
Views
152
mrpickem
mrpickem
Frank Costanza
Week 6 - TV Schedule & Broadcaster Listing
Replies
4
Views
108
HairOfTheDog
H
Frank Costanza
Week 3 - TV Schedule & Broadcaster Listing
Replies
6
Views
147
Frank Costanza
Frank Costanza
Frank Costanza
Week 5 - TV Schedule & Broadcaster Listing
Replies
17
Views
173
Frank Costanza
Frank Costanza
Frank Costanza
Week 2 - TV Schedule & Broadcaster Listing
Replies
8
Views
139
Frank Costanza
Frank Costanza
Back
Top