Week 8 Discussion Thread

I liked UCF even before this news, just hope my site puts it back up.

Memphis is 0-7ats their 7 here, and the home team is 13-1 ats their last 14.

I'll still take 'em at -1* or 2.
 
inZane said:
I liked UCF even before this news, just hope my site puts it back up.

Memphis is 0-7ats their 7 here, and the home team is 13-1 ats their last 14.

I'll still take 'em at -1* or 2.
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Yeah - all I know is Parrish was recruited to LSU but has never played at all. No clue what to expect and just at the mercy of seeing what happens here
 
I've always viewed Memphis as a plug and play system so I wouldn't expect a massive drop off with Parrish.

Gunnell likely would have been an all P12 QB this season if he hadn't transferred to Memphis

And UA wouldn't be 17+ point dogs to UW tonight
 
mcculran said:
Played the game under. Dont think either offense rates to have much success
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It is pretty high for how I would expect it to go. I think CSU gonna be able to bully them in the trenches. Really don’t think they gonna have a super hard time moving the ball, whether that equates to a bunch of points I dunno. I think the pass d will def be able to hold Utah at offense down. I’m assuming Tyler jr not gonna play which makes them pretty one dimensional as I think it a huge drop off from him to the other rbs on the roster. My only concern for the total would be if CSU able to build a big lead Utah at has a knack for scoring a bunch of points in the 4th qrtr. Pretty sure csu pass rush is starting to come around, they had one the best sack anx pressure rates in the country last year, early on they wernt getting pressure which was confusing as I expected that to be a strength, think they will get plenty of it tonight.
 
I was close to holding my nose and playing ucon amd zona, but then I discovered thar wonderful world of nba props and did a bunch of those instead of taking awful teams tonight! I did play a little zona+17.5 and ml! Lol
 
2daBank said:
It is pretty high for how I would expect it to go. I think CSU gonna be able to bully them in the trenches. Really don’t think they gonna have a super hard time moving the ball, whether that equates to a bunch of points I dunno. I think the pass d will def be able to hold Utah at offense down. I’m assuming Tyler jr not gonna play which makes them pretty one dimensional as I think it a huge drop off from him to the other rbs on the roster. My only concern for the total would be if CSU able to build a big lead Utah at has a knack for scoring a bunch of points in the 4th qrtr. Pretty sure csu pass rush is starting to come around, they had one the best sack anx pressure rates in the country last year, early on they wernt getting pressure which was confusing as I expected that to be a strength, think they will get plenty of it tonight.
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Played Under 29 1H
 
inZane said:
I liked UCF even before this news, just hope my site puts it back up.

Memphis is 0-7ats their 7 here, and the home team is 13-1 ats their last 14.

I'll still take 'em at -1* or 2.
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What does that have to do with this year’s ucf team lead by malzahn?
 
Where Mars at this week? I have Kent st/ohio questions and he the man on maction and anything Ohio!

I think I like Ohio with the points but I learned long ago tryin to simply cap the Mac with numbers a mistake! Lol. Kent st gets a lot of love but they continually unimpress me! Even the Buffalo game that was primed to be their breakout they jumped all over them then damn near blew the cover! Ohio been playing teams close, I think they can have a ton of success on the ground here. Seems like a good kinda Mac dog to play but I it the Mac so who knows!
 
man im having a hard time even putting together my favorite 6 for contest im in,,, pretty much all my leans i have poked some holes in but find myself liking a lot the totals when im finished.. kinda like ecu but it makes me really nervous how much i think houston front can disrupt the ecu offense.. more i look the more i think i like the under 57, when you look at ecu games against a few the teams with better defenses they have played pretty low scoring. obviously houston offense can put up some points but ecu defense rates better than you would expect with them defensive metrics despite surface stats not looking so hot. i like ecu, i think they will find a way to compete and really think the only way they can do so is to keep houston around 30, not a easy task considering houston has hung 40+ in 4 of 6 games, a few of those were against terrible squads tho. thoughts? i really dont like playing a bunch of totals in my top 6 plays and now i have this one on the fringe along with the cuse under and the wake over. even worse than bunch of totals unders! lol
 
im torn between cuse and under. somewhat worried hookies can slow down cuse run game but when you look at their dline metrics the rate in the 80s or worse in basically everything line yards, standard down ly, power rate, stuff rate, passing down sack rate which surprised me, they only good in standard down sack rate.. obviously cuse has to run to have a chance,, so does tech and i think cuse will have more success.. only concern is are all the close losses getting to cuse or are they ready to get over the hump?
 
i think wku might smash some these conf foes now that they out that tough out of conf schedule.. last week was 1st time all year i didnt like over and actually leaned under didnt have the stones to play it tho.. they continued scoring at will but they were able to hold odu to 20. im sure fiu might hit some big plays as that seems to be what they do but im not sure they can consistently drive the ball or be anywhere close to efficient as you have to be to hang with wku, or we need their opponent to be ti hit these overs now that books have figured wku out!! i have no doubt wku gonna hang a huge number here but i dont trust fiu to come along at the rate we might need. think im more comfy playing either the wku team total over or laying the -15.. feel like i have a really good read on this team as i have watched them a ton since mars told me about them in week 1, they really fun to watch even tho i do like defense, they like my guilty pleasure team! lol
 
i did so much work on BC/ville and am actually surprised i went from being close to playing BC most the week but now to the point if that line gets bet down to -4 (or -3 awesome) i think i would make a small play on ville. i hate to be a ville apologist but man they could have easily won these last 2 games vs wake and def should have beaten uva, they had a very high win expectancy in both those games, the loss to uva was redic. of course the fact they lost both says something not so flattering. ville defense isnt good but are they as bad it looks on paper? look at the offenses ville has had to face this year, not sure any team would have strong defensive numbers playing that schedule. On the other hand i talk up BC defense quite a bit and i do like their coach, but look at the offenses BC has faced, the only 2 you could even consider above avg would be ncst and mizzou, both those teams moved the ball all over them on way to hanging 30+!! im not sure the narrative of BC strong defense is entirely accurate (umass scored 28 om them which matched their highest output of the season, and they just played ucon!!!)..then we get to the issue of how much i dislike Grosel, i think it fair to say BC could be the worst power 5 offense ville has faced (you could argue fsu but that the only one imo), on the other hand i think it also fair to say ville will be the best offense BC has faced and we see what other decent offenses have done to them, id take ville offense over mizzou all day every day and BC couldnt stop the tigers at all!!! all this for a game i think gonna end up being a pass for me, cause at end of day even tho i think ville the better team they have proven even when they outplay a team the outcome is still up in the air.. guess this just a friendly warning if ya considering BC as several guys i respect are ;lol.
 
It's strange that 2 games ago for each team, Hawaii was a 17 pt road fav at New Mexico State. They won 41-21. And now, in Honolulu Hawaii is -18.
 
s--k said:
It's strange that 2 games ago for each team, Hawaii was a 17 pt road fav at New Mexico State. They won 41-21. And now, in Honolulu Hawaii is -18.
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Hey man, outside of the obvious disappointment that was the actual game, how did you enjoy Richardson stadium and the UNCC campus?
 
2daBank said:
im torn between cuse and under. somewhat worried hookies can slow down cuse run game but when you look at their dline metrics the rate in the 80s or worse in basically everything line yards, standard down ly, power rate, stuff rate, passing down sack rate which surprised me, they only good in standard down sack rate.. obviously cuse has to run to have a chance,, so does tech and i think cuse will have more success.. only concern is are all the close losses getting to cuse or are they ready to get over the hump?
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i played Cuse 3' and VT TT under 24' - so either beware or let's get it!
 
2daBank said:
how you seeing the clemson game? i really think pitt a tough matchup for them and of course they gotta be pumped up to exact some revenge for years of beat downs!!! i just went to bet pitt cause every acc line i have waited on the last few weeks has went up!! decided i would go ahead and try to get out of in front of this one as i was pretty happy with pit-3 and the fucking thing up to -4 already! ugh,..
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Pitt's defensive scheme is the perfect scheme to stop this year's Tigers. However, Venables really seems to know how to stop Pickett and Pitt. In 2018 (as a sophomore) against Clemson, he was 4-for-16 for 8 yards, with an INT in a 42-10 loss..

Last year he was 22-39 (5.4 yards per pass) with 4 INTs and 2 TDs in a 52-17 loss.. That's makingme think I can play the under. I simply can't bet Pitt as a Clemson fan, though I probbaly still think that's the right side.
 
carolinablue said:
Hey man, outside of the obvious disappointment that was the actual game, how did you enjoy Richardson stadium and the UNCC campus?
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It's nice. The area outside campus isn't as interesting as I would've hoped. Nice stadium. I always enjoy watching college kids...and the clothes they wear. We stayed until the very end. I wish we would've done a double-header...I suggested that to my friend, to do the double header App St Wed night and Charlotte Thursday night but with work he wouldn't have been able to take the time off Wednesday to get over to Boone in time. That game would've been a great experience.
 
2daBank said:
Where Mars at this week? I have Kent st/ohio questions and he the man on maction and anything Ohio!

I think I like Ohio with the points but I learned long ago tryin to simply cap the Mac with numbers a mistake! Lol. Kent st gets a lot of love but they continually unimpress me! Even the Buffalo game that was primed to be their breakout they jumped all over them then damn near blew the cover! Ohio been playing teams close, I think they can have a ton of success on the ground here. Seems like a good kinda Mac dog to play but I it the Mac so who knows!
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I agree that the Bobcats could play ball control here on the ground w Armani and Tuggle. Kent States offense hasn’t been clicking…but Bobcats D will need some turnovers to get stops. Think we see a slow start on the scoreboard
Like 1H under 33.5 & Cats w points.
 
2daBank said:
How is clemson dc gonna attack him? Does he try to bring pressure?
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Clemson sacked him six times last year for -53 yards. I think we'll see plenty of pressure. Our top corner missed the Syracuse came, and he and another corner (Davis) who missed the game will be back this week. That means for the first time this year Clemson will have all of its top 5 corners ready to go. Of course, both DTs will miss the game again.

On the other side of the ball, WR Ngata is out for Clemson (18-352, 19.6 yards per catch). I'm really starting to think thisi is another under.
 
mcculran said:
I don’t think their secondary is as bad as it looks. Take a look at their games….they have been leading (tied 1 time w/ wm) every game at the half. Most times they are up double digits, so of course teams have to air it out. Knowing that, nardo keeps everything in front, lets them play dink & dunk and makes the other team execute length-of-the-field drives. Def yds/pt is still decent…actually pitt’s pass D is comparable to cuse’s ypp and better overall yds/pt. and besides, at what point has DJ U given anybody the impression he was gonna carve up any secondary? Not never is the answer
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Don't forget about all those missed opportunities Milton had in Knowville. I think he missed three receivers wide open for 60-yard TDs.
 
2daBank said:
the one time clemson did score 21 against ncst 7 of those came in ot so they yet to break 19 points in regulation vs any power 5 team,, it would be pretty disappointing to me if pitt all a sudden let them break out and score the mid 20s i think it would take for tigers to have a chance,, really dont think they can keep pitt from scoring 24 minimum, honestly think pitt can get 27-31 range.. i could be too high on that tho, that why i didnt really want to lay more than -3, i do think it possible clemson defense continues to be really strong once teams get inside the 40, if they can keep this another super low scoring game i still think pitt will win but by a fg certainly possible. i do like the fact the total has been bet up some, makes me think im right bout pitt being able to score, then again maybe they think tigers can get into the 20s? either way i do think the higher scoring it is the better it is for pitt..
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It's astonishing that a team can be 0-6 ATS while holding evey opponent below its posted team total (in regulation).
 
M.W. said:
Pitt's defensive scheme is the perfect scheme to stop this year's Tigers. However, Venables really seems to know how to stop Pickett and Pitt. In 2018 (as a sophomore) against Clemson, he was 4-for-16 for 8 yards, with an INT in a 42-10 loss..

Last year he was 22-39 (5.4 yards per pass) with 4 INTs and 2 TDs in a 52-17 loss.. That's makingme think I can play the under. I simply can't bet Pitt as a Clemson fan, though I probbaly still think that's the right side.
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I’m well aware of Pickett struggles vs them, think this year be different but maybe not. For one his line been fantastic this year which obviously helps a ton, and I just think he has made some nice strides this year. Clemson will have to get some pressure cause he loves to hold the ball and give his wrs time to get open. Thing is he been fantastic vs the blitz this year so we shall see., I been locked in on this one since middle the week so for good or bad my bed made w Pitt and I feel pretty good about it. Appreciate all your resources as I respect your opinion on tigers.
 
M.W. said:
It's astonishing that a team can be 0-6 ATS while holding evey opponent below its posted team total (in regulation).
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That is crazy! That really been one the plays I have made on several tigers games. I kinda think Pitt goes over here, certainly wouldn’t shock me if they didn’t tho,
 
I'm on Alabama. I found a really strong momentum angle that is a bit more complicated than this, but basically backs home teams coming off a road blowout win in the second half of the season.

I was concerned about the fact that Alabama has an open date after Tennessee, which is usually the case. Over the last 10 years, however, Alabama has covered against UT every time the Tide have come into the game with an ATS record over .500, plus a couple times when they didn't. Alabama is 4-3 ATS this year.
 
M.W. said:
I'm on Alabama. I found a really strong momentum angle that is a bit more complicated than this, but basically backs home teams coming off a road blowout win in the second half of the season.

I was concerned about the fact that Alabama has an open date after Tennessee, which is usually the case. Over the last 10 years, however, Alabama has covered against UT every time the Tide have come into the game with an ATS record over .500, plus a couple times when they didn't. Alabama is 4-3 ATS this year.
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I really don’t need any angles or capping to play bama. The reasoning always the same, it bama! You will win way more often than not playing them! Is there really anything else to say? 1st half all day!
 
Marsski said:
I agree that the Bobcats could play ball control here on the ground w Armani and Tuggle. Kent States offense hasn’t been clicking…but Bobcats D will need some turnovers to get stops. Think we see a slow start on the scoreboard
Like 1H under 33.5 & Cats w points.
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Appreciate the response. Thing I like bout going against Kent st is they tend to stop themselves, especially in the red zone!
 
Cincy 1st qrtr was a mistake but when I went to play 1st half Fuckin thing was up to -17. As much I like the Bearcats they not a good team to try and pick out plays inside the game, they have come out flat vs some bad teams, sometimes they take foot off gas when they do jump out big. Can’t get a read on them with these big spreads. My hope here was the d kept navy from getting a 1st down while the offense got things figured out. Soon as Navy got a 1st down it was alll but ovsr as it lead to a 7 min drive. Kiss 1st qrtr goodbye. Lol. Damn
 
I thought bout New Mexico, wyo falling into that category of there no way they should be laying any kind of number with that terrible offense.
 
mcculran said:
Anybody know whats up with liberty? I passed on them this week, luckily. But wtf is goinv on?!
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I dunno. I thought bout taking north texas in contest but just looking for big upset, not like I was gonna bet. Didn’t they lose as huge favs last week? Luster is off. Prob pisses off kids not much exposure or nil money at liberty! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I dunno. I thought bout taking north texas in contest but just looking for big upset, not like I was gonna bet. Didn’t they lose as huge favs last week? Luster is off. Prob pisses off kids not much exposure or nil money at liberty! Lol
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Yes lost last week at UL-Monroe as 32.5 pt faves. Now 21.5 faves this week at home, and getting embarrassed again on the road. Didnt know if willis is playing hurt or what?! He was shooting up draft boards last i heard…
 
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