time to post my week 4 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Overall Record 54-39-5

No real undeserved losses. Undeserved win with Nebraska.


Locked In:

Kansas +13
App St -7
Ok St -5
Tcu -7
ga southern -16
nevada +2
ball st 18.5
auburn -2.5
Boston College -4
Fresno st 5.5
Bearcats +10
FAU -10 -115
Navy -6.5
Army/EMU over 55.5 (sigh)
Rice 35.5
ten/flor under 53.5
moh/wku under 67.5
umass/ndame over 56.5
csu/utsa over 58.5
cal/wash under 61
tosu/western mich over 58
Indiana -3.5
ga southern/Idaho over 68.5
Arkansas State/Toledo over 57.5
VT/ECU under 52
GT -7 -115
LSU -24
 
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Lines got considerably tighter this week. The days of value en masse are over my friends. Hopefully totals are the answer.
 
Ok St - I haven't even made a line but if market says cal and Ok St are even then I have a problem with that. And if market says that the -5 close on Cal was not plus EV based on the game itself (outcome aside), then I have a problem with that too. Granted, Texas appears to be improving a little but so has ok st as the year has progressed. There is no way this doesn't go up at some point in my opinion and I can make a better decision then after fully capping it out.

App St - Continuing my fade of Old Dominion ( Emu winner to close, NcState defense to get total under winner). App State fielding a good defense and catches ODU in a good spot for Appy.

Kansas - My PR has this way different and I am not sure I have even adjusted Rutgers down enough with everything that is going on with that football program right now. Probably a ML dog opportunity.
 
Nevada/Buffalo (glad they're starting this rivalry) a real head scratcher for me. UNR definitely the better team and Buffalo lucky as fuck last week, but Nevada to Texas back to Nevada then to New York is gross. And UNR was somewhat respectable against the Aggies which makes me wonder if a stinker is coming. Curious to see how this unfolds.
 
Twink - Thanks. Good to have an SEC think that is good. I hope GPS likes it.

Lind - Pretty funny box score with FAU and as someone who watched them against PSU, I though that box score flattered them as well. I will get more into it later. Tad bit of a Sammy for Nevada after TAMU and hosting unlv next but bowl eligibility (even with their easy schedule) won't be easy if they drop their most winnable road game.
 
App state - ODU had negative yards rushing yesterday. If you remove the 70 yard TD play they had 78 total yards. For the game.

Against Eastern Michigan they were outgained by 31 yards despite being plus three in turnovers and the opponent losing their starting QB who was the best player (3rd qtr with odu trailing) on either sideline when the game started. And that was with converting a high percentage of third downs in that game. Somehow got to 38 with roughly 440 yards or so?

Team is transitioning right now .. probably for the better long term ... but they aren't there yet on the offensive side of the ball. App state held Clemson to under 400 yards despite the tigers running 75 plays.

Off a bye, with meaningless Wyoming game on deck.

App State closed last year just wiping the floor with teams in this ballpark and have about everyone back.

Going to be tough to line up and run Lawry at them all day. They are going to have to succeed in the air to keep the game competitive. They have shown the ability to occasionally make the big play but have not shown the ability to have any consistency in the pass game.

EMU will be a lower half mac club. ODU is arguably the 12th best team in CUSA .... ahead of Charlotte .... probably right there with a couple other teams ... but at the bottom. App State is arguably the best Sun Belt Conference team on paper. Just doesn't seem like a lot to ask of App St in this one.
 
Crazy to think that TCU/Tech game is at least 10pts different than what the GOY lines had it preseason. I was high on Tech and lower on TCU preseason, but I can't believe it's down this much
 
HammersSpreads said:
Crazy to think that TCU/Tech game is at least 10pts different than what the GOY lines had it preseason. I was high on Tech and lower on TCU preseason, but I can't believe it's down this much
Click to expand...

TCU looks vulnerable on defense.. banged up ... secondary thin and Texas Tech will test you that way. Place will be insane excited .. flashbacks to crabtree catch against texas in my head. backdoor could be open ... I get it ... but they were just getting double digits from a team who lost to Toledo the week before and who is a td dog at home to TAMU this week. The dip in the line seems a bit excessive.
 
Wouldn't go that far. Been watching but not with a gambling eye (reading boxes). Just thinking about how much I appreciate Usc hiring another slap dick. The rest of the conference appreciates it.

Surprised by that UCLA/BYU game? I sure as hell was. Thought we were looking at a blowout. Can they really be up for a 4th game in a row now? Early start after a very late finish on the west coast keeping in mind they don't go over film study or anything on Sundays. I thought UCLA would do it to them so now I'm unsure but man the Semcon team has to blast these guys right?
 
App state - just beginning my stuff and this jump off the screen and punched me in the face. I couldn't believe the flat 7 and thought I've missed something. Seeing you on it also confirms that I haven't made a mistake
 
JPicks said:
Wouldn't go that far. Been watching but not with a gambling eye (reading boxes). Just thinking about how much I appreciate Usc hiring another slap dick. The rest of the conference appreciates it.

Surprised by that UCLA/BYU game? I sure as hell was. Thought we were looking at a blowout. Can they really be up for a 4th game in a row now? Early start after a very late finish on the west coast keeping in mind they don't go over film study or anything on Sundays. I thought UCLA would do it to them so now I'm unsure but man the Semcon team has to blast these guys right?
Click to expand...


Woah! I think I just saw a ghost.

From the UM side..

Some are very optimistic this week having seen the gradual improvements.

The same people are prolly optimistic after the Taysom injury without really knowing about the backup.

Others are freaking out about Rudock(6 turns in 3 games).

Very interesting game...all situational aspects point UM way.

Good to see ya sir.
 
JPicks said:
Wouldn't go that far. Been watching but not with a gambling eye (reading boxes). Just thinking about how much I appreciate Usc hiring another slap dick. The rest of the conference appreciates it.

Surprised by that UCLA/BYU game? I sure as hell was. Thought we were looking at a blowout. Can they really be up for a 4th game in a row now? Early start after a very late finish on the west coast keeping in mind they don't go over film study or anything on Sundays. I thought UCLA would do it to them so now I'm unsure but man the Semcon team has to blast these guys right?
Click to expand...

I was saying the same thing last week in regards to BYU. By power rating, I technically should have been backing BYU last week but off of two hail mary wins against two good clubs and travel to ucla to face an athletic team, I figured they might just be emotionally spent and take it in the shorts. Probably should have won outright.

So yes, I am in the camp that this is a horrible spot for BYU again and the emotion is different ... instead of elation at winning a game they do not deserve to win, they have the disappointment of what might have been if they pull off the upset against the bruins. Again, by PR byu deserves the look and not Michigan and for that reason, I won't be backing the wolverines. Maybe emotion plays less of a factor for BYU than most teams do to them being a slightly more ... err... mature group.

Also, not sure you can count on Michigan to blast anyone this good because they just aren't there yet offensively to do it ... might force the kid into turnovers to set up the offense, I suppose. 17 first downs and 377 yards against UNLV isn't impressive ... especially when you hold unlv to 15 first downs and 235 yards. With that kind of defensive dominance the offense should have done more. Would be 301 if you removed the 76 yard play ... against unlv.

Sort of a flat spot for Michigan there though ... I mean they have the huge game to start the year at Utah after all the hype, lose and then have all the pressure to win in their home opener. And have this game on deck after Unlv .. so it was not a good spot for them last week.

I won't touch the game .. though this might be the game where a Michigan game hits 50 pts.
 
Alan Tongue said:
App state - just beginning my stuff and this jump off the screen and punched me in the face. I couldn't believe the flat 7 and thought I've missed something. Seeing you on it also confirms that I haven't made a mistake
Click to expand...

I am a little surprised it hasn't move upward yet but road favorites are not beloved by most early bettors. Shrug. I feel great about it
 
I obviously have some buyers remorse with Ok State right now. Quite the love affair with California right now from everyone sharp and not sharp alike. To not back Ok State at the same number you backed California with this being the one game Ok State has been prepping for (cupcake central prior) while Texas has had to prep for Notre Dame and California while dealing with outside distractions involving the program, turnover in the coaching staff and coming off an emotionally devastating loss would be strange to me.

Curious.. what do you make ok st vs California on a neutral, Alan?
 
I don't disagree with the TCU thoughts, but the TAMU Arky game is at a neutral for whatever that is worth to you.
 
ADD

Fresno State +5.5

Suspect line movement involving this game.....

least favorite play and may bail but I have a feeling it is about to get plowed into.
 
At the risk of oversimplifying this: BYU is the better team.

I'll take the better team with the better qb getting points and hope the situational stuff works itself out like it did last week at UCLA.

I can also make the argument that BYU gained a lot of confidence by going into Pasadena and outplaying a top team. Mich doesn't have UCLA's talent/speed, especially on offense. BYU knows they can win this game. Mid to lower level tier teams also tend to get hyped up to play in the big house. I just think with a lot of the situational stuff you can mindfuck yourself to death in either direction...so if the situational spot isn't eminently obvious it's just not worth the stress.


clowncar said:
I was saying the same thing last week in regards to BYU. By power rating, I technically should have been backing BYU last week but off of two hail mary wins against two good clubs and travel to ucla to face an athletic team, I figured they might just be emotionally spent and take it in the shorts. Probably should have won outright.

So yes, I am in the camp that this is a horrible spot for BYU again and the emotion is different ... instead of elation at winning a game they do not deserve to win, they have the disappointment of what might have been if they pull off the upset against the bruins. Again, by PR byu deserves the look and not Michigan and for that reason, I won't be backing the wolverines. Maybe emotion plays less of a factor for BYU than most teams do to them being a slightly more ... err... mature group.

Also, not sure you can count on Michigan to blast anyone this good because they just aren't there yet offensively to do it ... might force the kid into turnovers to set up the offense, I suppose. 17 first downs and 377 yards against UNLV isn't impressive ... especially when you hold unlv to 15 first downs and 235 yards. With that kind of defensive dominance the offense should have done more. Would be 301 if you removed the 76 yard play ... against unlv.

Sort of a flat spot for Michigan there though ... I mean they have the huge game to start the year at Utah after all the hype, lose and then have all the pressure to win in their home opener. And have this game on deck after Unlv .. so it was not a good spot for them last week.

I won't touch the game .. though this might be the game where a Michigan game hits 50 pts.
Click to expand...
 
TTU +7 1/2. I'll be at the game. Gonna drop a larger amount on it to add to the thrill of the environment
 
I guess I could add a little opinion on the game from a Tech standpoint.

The environment is going to be insane. I know a lot of people will be at the game. It's going to be loud, the fans believe Tech can win this straight up. Mahomes is light years ahead of Webb at this point in the season compared to Webb last year. Web would start slow on most games. Mahomes coms out accurate from the get go.

If you pay attention to his scrambles under pressure. He keeps his eyes down field and is absolutely willing to leave himself vulnerable to a big hit in order to get the ball down field.

Watch his first TD against UTEP. 3rd and 8 on Techs first possession. He drops back and attempts to extend the play while two defenders are on a crash course for him. He sees our speedster Grant wide open about 35 yards downfield. He just plants his feet and puts it right on the numbers and allows Grant to make a huge play.

He does whatever he can to get our playmakers involved. Even against Arkansas he was about to run a couple yards to a 1st down but sees our RB ahead of him open about 7 yards in front of him. Instead of taking off past the LOS he pitches it to the RB and allows him to get additional yards. His decision making and ability to recover after an interception is impressive for someone so young. I put that game at a coin flip honestly. If Tcu struggles offensively out of the gate, they're going to be playing catchup.

I know it's early in his career, but when it's all said and done Mahomes might be the best QB to ever play for Tech. We have a few sophomore offensive weapons to.

Keep an eye on Reginald Davis, he is coming into his own. Will be a solid NFL WR prospect if he can polish his fundamentals and pack on some weight.
 
Eric8923 said:
I guess I could add a little opinion on the game from a Tech standpoint.

The environment is going to be insane. I know a lot of people will be at the game. It's going to be loud, the fans believe Tech can win this straight up. Mahomes is light years ahead of Webb at this point in the season compared to Webb last year. Web would start slow on most games. Mahomes coms out accurate from the get go.

If you pay attention to his scrambles under pressure. He keeps his eyes down field and is absolutely willing to leave himself vulnerable to a big hit in order to get the ball down field.

Watch his first TD against UTEP. 3rd and 8 on Techs first possession. He drops back and attempts to extend the play while two defenders are on a crash course for him. He sees our speedster Grant wide open about 35 yards downfield. He just plants his feet and puts it right on the numbers and allows Grant to make a huge play.

He does whatever he can to get our playmakers involved. Even against Arkansas he was about to run a couple yards to a 1st down but sees our RB ahead of him open about 7 yards in front of him. Instead of taking off past the LOS he pitches it to the RB and allows him to get additional yards. His decision making and ability to recover after an interception is impressive for someone so young. I put that game at a coin flip honestly. If Tcu struggles offensively out of the gate, they're going to be playing catchup.

I know it's early in his career, but when it's all said and done Mahomes might be the best QB to ever play for Tech. We have a few sophomore offensive weapons to.

Keep an eye on Reginald Davis, he is coming into his own. Will be a solid NFL WR prospect if he can polish his fundamentals and pack on some weight.
Click to expand...


He is a good looking player. Kingsbury has them all buying in too. I still have nightmares about the crabtree play and dropped int prior to it .... but I will never forget that atmosphere. First game for TCU to be excited about though too. Dwight linked me to the kingsbury post game presser ... that was great.

Have a great time at the game, couldn't agree more about Mahomes ... I just think the pendulum swung too far.
 
Oh I agree. I was hoping for something double digits, and if I want a TTU student who has watch ever second of our games I would probably take TCU. Best of luck on the rest of your wagers.
 
phife said:
At the risk of oversimplifying this: BYU is the better team.

I'll take the better team with the better qb getting points and hope the situational stuff works itself out like it did last week at UCLA.

I can also make the argument that BYU gained a lot of confidence by going into Pasadena and outplaying a top team. Mich doesn't have UCLA's talent/speed, especially on offense. BYU knows they can win this game. Mid to lower level tier teams also tend to get hyped up to play in the big house. I just think with a lot of the situational stuff you can mindfuck yourself to death in either direction...so if the situational spot isn't eminently obvious it's just not worth the stress.
Click to expand...

tend to agree. I am not a situational capper by nature
 
Alan Tongue said:
App state - just beginning my stuff and this jump off the screen and punched me in the face. I couldn't believe the flat 7 and thought I've missed something. Seeing you on it also confirms that I haven't made a mistake
Click to expand...

My thoughts exactly.
 
clowncar said:
I was saying the same thing last week in regards to BYU. By power rating, I technically should have been backing BYU last week but off of two hail mary wins against two good clubs and travel to ucla to face an athletic team, I figured they might just be emotionally spent and take it in the shorts. Probably should have won outright.

So yes, I am in the camp that this is a horrible spot for BYU again and the emotion is different ... instead of elation at winning a game they do not deserve to win, they have the disappointment of what might have been if they pull off the upset against the bruins. Again, by PR byu deserves the look and not Michigan and for that reason, I won't be backing the wolverines. Maybe emotion plays less of a factor for BYU than most teams do to them being a slightly more ... err... mature group.

Also, not sure you can count on Michigan to blast anyone this good because they just aren't there yet offensively to do it ... might force the kid into turnovers to set up the offense, I suppose. 17 first downs and 377 yards against UNLV isn't impressive ... especially when you hold unlv to 15 first downs and 235 yards. With that kind of defensive dominance the offense should have done more. Would be 301 if you removed the 76 yard play ... against unlv.

Sort of a flat spot for Michigan there though ... I mean they have the huge game to start the year at Utah after all the hype, lose and then have all the pressure to win in their home opener. And have this game on deck after Unlv .. so it was not a good spot for them last week.

I won't touch the game .. though this might be the game where a Michigan game hits 50 pts.
Click to expand...

Totally agree with this. I am kicking myself for avoiding that one. BYU was obviously the value play there but I also passed on it because I thought they had a truckload of bad karma coming. That's just silly to assume.
 
phife said:
At the risk of oversimplifying this: BYU is the better team.

I'll take the better team with the better qb getting points and hope the situational stuff works itself out like it did last week at UCLA.

I can also make the argument that BYU gained a lot of confidence by going into Pasadena and outplaying a top team. Mich doesn't have UCLA's talent/speed, especially on offense. BYU knows they can win this game. Mid to lower level tier teams also tend to get hyped up to play in the big house. I just think with a lot of the situational stuff you can mindfuck yourself to death in either direction...so if the situational spot isn't eminently obvious it's just not worth the stress.
Click to expand...


Couldn't believe we were getting 17 there. BYU is not that far off from UCLA and the Bruins have a freshman QB who struggled in his last game. Rosen will be great but he isn't there yet. A lot of people were "claiming" BYU was a public dog which was nonsense.
 
phife said:
At the risk of oversimplifying this: BYU is the better team.

I'll take the better team with the better qb getting points and hope the situational stuff works itself out like it did last week at UCLA.

I can also make the argument that BYU gained a lot of confidence by going into Pasadena and outplaying a top team. Mich doesn't have UCLA's talent/speed, especially on offense. BYU knows they can win this game. Mid to lower level tier teams also tend to get hyped up to play in the big house. I just think with a lot of the situational stuff you can mindfuck yourself to death in either direction...so if the situational spot isn't eminently obvious it's just not worth the stress.
Click to expand...

Great post. The good thing about backing BYU is that you take advantage of their arrogance. Tons of people talk about how arrogant BYU is, but that arrogance lets them expect to win every game. They aren't involved in games at this juncture just to compete...they're there to win. That's a nice thing to have when you're getting significant points. (Still kicking myself for passing on them last week)
 
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