time to post my week 4 card so far

add

ten/flor under 53.5
moh/wku under 67.5
umass/ndame over 56.5
csu/utsa over 58.5
cal/wash under 61
tosu/western mich over 58
ga southern/Idaho over 68.5
 
Gabe said:
you have some big balls
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'

Not so much big as they are just hanging low.

It's an angle with Option against the MAC that I learned from Garfather a few years ago and I almost blindly do it now. They're the worst Army offense in awhile but they also faced a tough UConn rush d and a tough wake run d the last two weeks and get some rush defense class relief in this one. EMich offense improved .. they should score as well. figure both hit 27.. good enough.
 
clowncar said:
Add

Arkansas State/Toledo over 57.5
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I might add this one. K. Hunt is now probable and that gives them two solid backs to run. ARST has faced two better P5 defenses already and gained yards, if not points. Oh, and Knighten is probable as well, which of course is mandatory here.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
I might add this one. K. Hunt is now probable and that gives them two solid backs to run. ARST has faced two better P5 defenses already and gained yards, if not points. Oh, and Knighten is probable as well, which of course is mandatory here.
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Yes. I think it will be a coming out party for both offenses.
 
FWIW, reports are surfacing that highly touted QB prospect Sean White is starting for Auburn saturday
 
FSU QB Virgil left the Utah game with a shoulder injury, I just saw today he's out with a broken clavicle. Greenlee came in and actually played better but I just saw he was arrested either that night or the following night for "public drunkeness", not sure if he will even be playing this week.
 
cubsker said:
Be shocked if cuse plays their qb. I think they'll struggle to do anything on offense.
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Yea I agree

Early early start....kegs and eggs

this may be the B Harris experiment game, but Miles also may wanna continue the Heisman Show.....especially being close to the City
 
Indiana is 3-0 and playing good ball. . Wake f*ckin blows. The line opens at Indy -4, then frickin drops, drops to -3.5. I just don't get it. They do play Ohio St next week. Makes me think they won't be focused and are looking a head to the match up with the Buckeyes. I still can't believe the line is only 3.5. Did somebody get hurt that I don't know about? This game looks fishy.

I really enjoyed reading your stuff, Love the AppSt team this wkend.

Good luck on all your plays.
 
Thanks Carsonk. I think you have a bad road favorite against a historically good home dog playing into it. Wake has the much better defense in the game too. Spot might normally be bad but with the backup qb for Wake making his first start of the season, it isn't ideal for Deacons either. I have a hard time seeing them match scores with Indiana and I think the Hoosiers offense can score on most good defenses. Wake sort of coming off a bad effort in their win (granted lost starting QB on first series). If they are 4-0 heading into Ohio State, the program gets a lot of attention too so that somewhat mitigates an obvious lookahead spot (not a real believer in lookaheads for teams of Indiana's quality). I think the question you have to ask is whether the disparity between the two offenses is greater than the disparity between the two defenses. Statistically, so far this year, there is a bigger difference between the defenses so that could also play into Wake money. But .... there are two opponents that Indiana has faced that play a part in this ...1. FIU ... they managed the 439 yards (probably should have lost the game fwiw) against a pretty good defense. 2. WKU ... this is a big downgrade from the hilltopper offense so the game should slow down. The schedule is about to get a lot tougher for Indiana and a win here goes a long ways to maybe reaching some bowl game goals. Wake has been playing slightly better than their last two opponents (Cuse and Army) but Indiana is a notch above .... but the location of the game matters too. This isn't as easy at it looks at first glance ....
 
Going to lose to the close on sides this week, I think. I think I will beat the close on totals fairly handily at least. I have a bad, bad feeling about this week.
 
After missing out on a bowl game when it was an attainable goal the prior two seasons, I can't envision Indiana being in a look ahead mindset right now. Surely they know Ohio St is next week, but I would also tend to believe they should realize that this game is more important in terms of getting where they want to go in terms of post season. Won't be easy since it is Indiana favored on the road here, but would rather back the Hoosiers myself.
 
ram1502 said:
FWIW, reports are surfacing that highly touted QB prospect Sean White is starting for Auburn saturday
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How much worse could he be. Shocking how bad the QB play has been for Auburn. Read quite a few good things about White.
 
twinkie13 said:
LSU/Cuse thoughts?

Just curious...
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The temptation is to take Cuse tt under .. I could only back LSU and just might come gameday. The spot is obviously not great and Cuse does have a decent defense. If LSU trys to get the QB pass snaps it could stay under the 24 or so it is at these days. If they let the RB go crazy, eventually the Cuse D will wear down. I haven't looked at it close enough to offer a true opinion just yet .. but I know I would not have money on the Orange.
 
Two Utes said:
FSU QB Virgil left the Utah game with a shoulder injury, I just saw today he's out with a broken clavicle. Greenlee came in and actually played better but I just saw he was arrested either that night or the following night for "public drunkeness", not sure if he will even be playing this week.
Click to expand...


I can't get a win if SJSU is playing .... I appreciate the update. The game moved back up after the QB news hit. I smododed too fast.
 
nice win on cinci, I had memphis -5 and never thought the clock would run fast enough at the end
 
twinkie13 said:
Yea I agree

Early early start....kegs and eggs

this may be the B Harris experiment game, but Miles also may wanna continue the Heisman Show.....especially being close to the City
Click to expand...


He should be the overwhelming favorite to win the heisman right now
 
thoughts tomorrow night on Oregon St? flat spot for trees has me thinking +15 or +16 (depending on your line) looks enticing.
 
mrob said:
nice win on cinci, I had memphis -5 and never thought the clock would run fast enough at the end
Click to expand...

Thanks mrob. Grats to you too .. I blew it not taking memphis early in the week on the gunner news. Worked out for the guys smart enough to jump on that early and worked out for the guys who jumped on it when gunner became likely to play. Speaking of him .. I hope he is ok, and I hope he gets two years in the nfl and banks the money and gets the heck out of the game. Some people are not built for football and I think he should protect himself at this point .. just a game and just money .. not worth screwing yourself for life.

As an aside... that wasn't football tonight. For those that like that style of game, more power to you. To me it some other sport that resembles football, like an arcade game. I am looking forward to Boise at UVA to see a real football game.

If we, as football fans, don't watch out .... that horrible product that was on the field tonight will be what the entire sport is denigrated to.
 
P-Unit said:
thoughts tomorrow night on Oregon St? flat spot for trees has me thinking +15 or +16 (depending on your line) looks enticing.
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You are pretty dead on, I think. I made it 17 by PR, made zero adjustments for match ups but reduced it to 14.5 on the spot. I would sort of lean to whatever my true belief on Hogan is .... He played an insanely good game against USC ... Insanely good. If he keeps that up, then they cover .. if not they don't. I did watch the last Oregon State game and they struggled to move the ball against SJSU and that would be a concern for taking the Beavers here. I don't have much of an opinion on the game... pretty much lined what you would expect, Someone mentioned to me that the game sort of looks like beavs vs michigan .... in that the match ups are similar ... seems pretty accurate. Difference is horrible spot for Beavers when they went to Ann Arbor and this time they are in a great spot. They are only expecting 30 or 31 pts or so out of Stanford for the game ... game totaled 44.5 or so ... so the pts seem to have more value than 17 points in a game like we saw tonight. Good luck with whatever you do. I am sitting that one out.
 
s--k said:
After missing out on a bowl game when it was an attainable goal the prior two seasons, I can't envision Indiana being in a look ahead mindset right now. Surely they know Ohio St is next week, but I would also tend to believe they should realize that this game is more important in terms of getting where they want to go in terms of post season. Won't be easy since it is Indiana favored on the road here, but would rather back the Hoosiers myself.
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I am sort of hoping this is the case. Of course they could win and not cover too. They have a horrible backdoor defense if we are sitting up 10 with six minutes to go but the opponent has a not so great offense too. Wake was a team I wanted to back some come conference play if they started throwing out large lines because they are the kind of team that is good getting pts because they won't give up a ton to most teams. I wasn't that impressed with them vs. Army from a team speed aspect on offense .. didn't get near the separation against the Army secondary that one would expect to see. Sort of an interesting game to be honest. I like the Indiana QB and hopefully they are focused like we both think they will be.
 
Good thoughts on the LSU Cuse game. Talked myself off the Cuse cliff earlier in the week. Count my push last week with them lucky.

I have been considering Indiana. Think they can win the game and would go a long way on my Indiana O5.5 for the season. Glad to see it down to -3 for the game.

Cheer up on your card you lol. You got some good numbers at open aside from a few that strayed on you
 
ksimpsc said:
Good thoughts on the LSU Cuse game. Talked myself off the Cuse cliff earlier in the week. Count my push last week with them lucky.

I have been considering Indiana. Think they can win the game and would go a long way on my Indiana O5.5 for the season. Glad to see it down to -3 for the game.

Cheer up on your card you lol. You got some good numbers at open aside from a few that strayed on you
Click to expand...

Some of my bad lines are just painful. Kansas to 14 means an extra score to beat kansas backers today compared to when i backed them. Market says I just made a horrible investment on Oklahoma State and I am on the other side of the key 3 and key 4 numbers there. Tech is now under a TD dog .. so I need an extra score than anyone backing TCU today. And Ball State now getting 20 could certainly come into play. I am particularly upset about Ok State.
 
yea man that line is fish bait. I took it but I just do not get it. I would have thought a higher line when considering the line vs Cal. I am with you on the Kansas boat, surprised to see it go the other way but pub hates Kansas
 
clowncar said:
You are pretty dead on, I think. I made it 17 by PR, made zero adjustments for match ups but reduced it to 14.5 on the spot. I would sort of lean to whatever my true belief on Hogan is .... He played an insanely good game against USC ... Insanely good. If he keeps that up, then they cover .. if not they don't. I did watch the last Oregon State game and they struggled to move the ball against SJSU and that would be a concern for taking the Beavers here. I don't have much of an opinion on the game... pretty much lined what you would expect, Someone mentioned to me that the game sort of looks like beavs vs michigan .... in that the match ups are similar ... seems pretty accurate. Difference is horrible spot for Beavers when they went to Ann Arbor and this time they are in a great spot. They are only expecting 30 or 31 pts or so out of Stanford for the game ... game totaled 44.5 or so ... so the pts seem to have more value than 17 points in a game like we saw tonight. Good luck with whatever you do. I am sitting that one out.
Click to expand...

If Riley was still coach than this would be a good spot for the Beavers. He always had them up when a big team came to town and they played for him. Don't think Andersen has it in him yet

Not sure the status of Hogan (haven't looked).
 
clowncar said:
Some of my bad lines are just painful. Kansas to 14 means an extra score to beat kansas backers today compared to when i backed them. Market says I just made a horrible investment on Oklahoma State and I am on the other side of the key 3 and key 4 numbers there. Tech is now under a TD dog .. so I need an extra score than anyone backing TCU today. And Ball State now getting 20 could certainly come into play. I am particularly upset about Ok State.
Click to expand...

Don't fret too much over Ok State. Texas are a very public play (they did put points on the 101st ranked in total defense at home at home)
 
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