time to post my NBA season thoughts and analysis thread...

would be interesting if you auto-bet that variance threshold and see how it tracks instead of being picky.
 
Pyppurs said:
would be interesting if you auto-bet that variance threshold and see how it tracks instead of being picky.
Click to expand...
The pickiness right now is letting the teams get some games under their belt. I'd prefer tighter lines for this.

Where I am mad at myself, is not starting most OKC/Utah games under and having an auto-middle at some point.

(two examples right there)

Last year early on, I started with Sac overs and always had opportunities.
 
You'll see me be more aggressive soon.

The HOU ML is I felt them going on a run and was gonna try and make a half unit or more... but it was actually the opposite. That is fine though.

Three games left tonight, we'll see if anything pops.

Back later.
 
against my better judgement but 36 variance

Even though this game was lined way to high wrt the total
 
B.A.R. said:
I am getting off this...if/when I can.

Portland is not interested in playing defense at all.
Click to expand...

The Warriors guys wear themselves to a frazzle playing so hard — it starts to catch up to them around the end of the 3rd quarter as far as I can tell..
 
Same here...can’t ever really trust the poser teams: Jazz, Mavericks, Nuggets, and Trailblazers ...
 
Well,

I felt like I would at least have a chance for a good middle out of this and only at halftime was that present.

I wouldn't even play Portland ML right now at plus money.

One team wants it more.

10-15 (6.06)
 
7 points of value entering the 4th

We finally got a semi-cold spell.

Knicks one of the slowest paces in the league... cray
 
Toronto and Sacramento right on 25.5.... but that is with 6 mins left

That is a no play.
 
Curious if you avoid plays at that time in the 4th, or you are factoring other intangibles (i.e. fouls, bonus, game spread/lead, etc..)
 
Minnesota-Memphis may be like Rox...Wiz last week... I am gonna take my loss there and move on.

Played on principle but wasn't comfortable.

Oh well, take a few posted winners to the good.

I'll explain that one bet and answer your question around 1230 eastern @Pyppurs
 
Pyppurs said:
Curious if you avoid plays at that time in the 4th, or you are factoring other intangibles (i.e. fouls, bonus, game spread/lead, etc..)
Click to expand...
Okay, I will answer this and that 2 unit play now. The site was getting updated last night when I came to answer.

First on last nights play.

The total in Toronto was 219 pregame. This was at 244.5 with 6+ minutes left in the 4th quarter. As I said then, it was too far into the 4th for me to take the under (25.5 pt variance). Well, randomly I noticed that the number was still up at the 3:02 mark with the score 116-107. The number was 237.5. I stared for about 15 seconds like 'wtf' and said screw it...popped a couple of units on it before it went OTB. Now, I understand the number being there (thats a 60 pt qtr pace)... but...

With a 3 poss game you could pretty much feel like this one would get extended. And, it did. Even if not I felt like a few late garbage hoops would get it over. This was a no-brainer imo. Sure enough, it landed on 244.

That is live-betting...making adjustments on the fly.

------------------------------------------------------------

Now, to @Pyppurs question...

I generally am content with a play after the under 7 timeout. Two of my outs close up on Live then. I have one that goes anywhere in the middle of the 4th and this one that will go till around the 3 min mark.

Now, I will definitely take into consideration what could turn into a foul fest.

I did the same thing on Monday night. I had that Port bet that was dead but was able to grab the over with around 4 mins left. Again. I figured Portland would be able to extend the game a bit. Dame is great at those gift layups while down multiple possessions.

I am playing quarters more and more this year. So, it is a continual learning process. I have 28 posted plays but prolly closer to 60 overall this season. The quarter plays are tough to post unless it is a timeout. I found a gift in Houston last night with 6-7 mins left in the half. The first half line was 1.5 at plus money. C'mon. Auto-bet.

Hope that answers your question. I love talking strategy so keep em coming...or post it the Live betting thread. Follow @HUNT for quarters... he's very good at them.
 
BAR, how about multiple games? Are you switching around between lots of games when live betting or do you restrict your attention to one game at a time?
 
I’ll chime in and give my 2 cents......

i’ve been hitting at pretty good rate on TT in 2half. Even live too.
I’ll give an example.....last Saturday , Portland and Philadelphia 2nd half. Portland scored 68 at halftime....second half line was 53.....I took over....
If line was around 56-60, I’ll pass.

I’ll take anyline that’s around 55 and under and play over when the team scores a bunch in the first half.


i’ved had 2 bets that I lost due to missed free throws last night. Thanks Seth Curry missing both free throws qhenAlso, had Bulls on Tuesday night....needing them to score 52 second half....they shit the bed early 4th quarter and lost by 1 point.

like Bar said, gotta play quick. Yesterday, clips TT live was 116.5 with like 3 mins left. I played over 121.5 mid 3rd quarter. They went on scoring drought end of third. Thanks Shamet for the hit on over, but lost my Bucks bet.....
 
pip2 said:
BAR, how about multiple games? Are you switching around between lots of games when live betting or do you restrict your attention to one game at a time?
Click to expand...
I definitely prefer bigger cards... that are spaced out like this season has been so far.

I'll have at least 4-5 box scores open at all times. I just kind of observe the games and whatnot. For full game totals, it is all numbers for me(watching the game is worse sometimes). For quarters and trades, I like to be able to watch the game more.

Tonight, these types of cards do not interest me a lot to be honest. Now, if an opportunity arises...awesome...but I am not gonna devote a lot of hours to tracking only a few games.
 
Clips and Blazers hit the variance meter last night. I couldn't post it. It was odd all 2h though how much it was being shaded to the over.
 
Win or lose, we have a very slow paced team in Denver... and the Hawks have not been involved in to many ridiculous games.

But, Denver is a tough team for me on totals.
 
Yes, I'm tracking the Boston Washington game but I've adjusted by "under" variance for Washington. 25-30 isn't enough for me.
 
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