time to post my 2018 bowl thread so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Week eight 42-25 +14.5 units
Week nine 35-31 +0.9 units
Week ten 41-21 +17.9 units'
Week 11 22 -15 +5.5 units
Week 12 17-17 -1.7 units
Week 13 24-20 +2.4 units
Week 14 11-9 +1.1
Overall 416-346 +35.8 units

The Army-Navy Game
Army vs Navy
Selections: Navy +7 Push
Running Results 0-0

Dec 15

Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl (Atlanta)
North Carolina A&T vs Alcorn State
Selections: Under 47.5 2h ov 23 2h ncat -1
Running Results: 1-1, 1-1

New Mexico Bowl
North Texas vs Utah State (Albuquerque)
Selections: Utah State -7
Running Results: 1-0, 2-1

Auto Nation Cure Bowl (Orlando)
Tulane vs Louisiana
Selections: Tulane -3 -115
Running Results: 1-0, 3-1

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl
Fresno State vs Arizona State
Selections: Fresno State -4 -114
Results 1-0, 4-1

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Ga Southern vs Eastern Michigan
Selections: Ga Southern -3 (tiny)
Running Results 0-1 4-2

R & L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
MTSU vs Appalachian State
Selections: MTSU 7
Running Results: 0-1 4-3

Dec 18
Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
UAB vs NIU
Selections: Under 44 -115, 2h under 21.5
Running Results: 1-1, 5-4

Dec 19
DXL Frisco Bowl
SDSU vs Ohio
Selections: SDSU/OHIO Under 53
Running Results: 1-0, 6-4

Dec 20

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa)
Marshall vs USF
Selections: USF +3
Running Results: 0-1, 6-5

Dec 21

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl (Nassau)
FIU vs Toledo
Selections: FIU 6 tol 1h -4, tol 2h -5
Running Results: 1-2 7-7

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Boise)
Western Michigan vs BYU
Selections: BYU -11
Running Results: 1-0 8-7

Dec 22

Jared Birmingham Bowl (Birmingham)
Memphis vs Wake Forest
Selections: Wake Forest 5
Running Results: 1-0 9-7

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth)
Houston vs Army
Selections: Houston +3
Running Results: 0-1 9-8

Dollar General Bowl (Mobile)
Buffalo vs Troy
Selections: Buffalo -2
Running Results: 0-1 9-9

Dec 26

SoFi Hawaii Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs Hawaii
Selections: Over 61
Running Results: 0-1 9-10

Servpro First Responder Bowl (Dallas)
Boston College vs Boise State
Selections: Under 51
Running Results: Game got Canceled #Millennials, 9-10

Quick Lane Bowl (Michigan)
Minnesota vs Georgia Tech
Selections: Georgia Tech -4 (2 units -4, 1 unit-5.5), Over 56.5
Running Results: 0-2 ? 9-12

Cheez-It Bowl
California vs TCU
Selections: TCU +1
Running Results: 1-0 10-12


Dec 27

Walk-On Independence Bowl (Shreveport)
Temple vs Duke
Selections: Duke 3.5, Duke/Temple Over 53
Running Results: 2-0 12-12

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Miami vs Wisconsin (New York)
Selections: Miami -3 largish, under 47.5
Running Results: 1-1 13-13

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl (Houston)
Baylor vs Vanderbilt
Selections: Vanderbilt -4, Over 55
Running Results: 1-1 14-14

Dec 28

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (Nashville)
Purdue vs Auburn
Selections: Purdue 3.5, Under 55.5
Running Results: 1-1 15-15

Camping World Bowl (Orlando)
West Virginia vs Syracuse
Selections: Under 70, Cuse -1
Running Results: 2-0 17-15
ci
Valero Alamo Bowl (San Antonio)
Iowa State vs Washington State
Selections: Washington State -3 2h isu -2.5 ov 27.5
Running Results: 1-2 18-17

Dec 29

Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl (Atlanta)
Florida vs Michigan
Selections: Florida 7.5
Running Results: 1-0 19-17

Belk Bowl (Charlotte)
South Carolina vs Virginia
Selections: Virginia 6, over 53.5
Running Results: 1-1 20-18

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl (Tucson)
Arkansas State vs Nevada
Selections: Nevada 1.5 , Over 57.5
Running Results: 1-1 21-19

Semifinal at Cotton Bowl (Arlington)
Clemson vs Notre Dame
Selections: Notre Dame 13, under 55
Running Results: 1-1 22-20

Semifinal Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens)
Alabama vs Oklahoma
Selections: Alabama -14, Over 79
Running Results: 0-1 and a push (22-21)

Dec 31

Military Bowl (Annapolis)
Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech
Selections: Bearcats -5
Running Results: 0-1 (22-22)

Hyundai Sun Bowl (The EP)
Stanford vs Pittsburgh
Selections:
Running Results:

Redbox Bowl (Santa Clara)
Michigan State vs Oregon
Selections:
Running results:

Autozone Liberty Bowl (Memphis)
Missouri vs Oklahoma State
Selections: Over 74, Missouri -8
Running Results: 0-2 22-24

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Northwestern vs Utah
Selections: NW 7.5
Running Results: 23-24

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
NCST vs TAMU
Selections: Tamu -4 -120 buy
Running Results: 24-24

Jan 1 2019 (Happy New Year !!)

Outback Bowl (Tampa)
Mississippi State vs Iowa
Selections: Miss State -6.5, under 43.5
Running Results: 24-26

VRBO Citrus Bowl (Orlando)
Kentucky vs Penn State
Selections:
Running Results:

Playstation Fiesta Bowl
LSU vs UCF
Selections: LSU -7 -112
Running Results: 25-26

Rose Bowl (Pasadena)
Washington vs Ohio State
Selections
Running Results:

All State Sugar Bowl (Nawlins)
Texas vs Georgia
Selections:
Running Results:

Mythical Championship Game
Alabama vs ??
Selections:
Running Results:
 
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RetroVK said:
I don't see how Bama is held under high fifties.
Click to expand...
It will be a lot like last years Rose Bowl.

As long as Saban doesn't get too cute, they will score and score. I took the Bama tt over 46 just to start. I know I'll have buyback options if need be.
 
B.A.R. said:
It will be a lot like last years Rose Bowl.

As long as Saban doesn't get too cute, they will score and score. I took the Bama tt over 46 just to start. I know I'll have buyback options if need be.
Click to expand...

They can hand it off every play and hit 40ies.
 
AliShaheed said:
Someone convince me that this isn't the safest bet to be made in this match up.
Click to expand...

The only conceivable way they don't make it is if they stop OU from scoring and turn it over enough through three quarters that they don't feel the need to score in the fourth. That would all be asking a lot and even then I think just handing it off is going to be hard for Oklahoma to stop.

Or Tua injury is worse than we think and it is Hurts (though they looked better with Hurts than Tua yesterday)
 
Orange Bowl is still on grass correct? Don't think they have turf there but can't remember
 
Would be more interested in seeing Kylers reaction to being hit by a 300 lb D-lineman that runs a 4.4. Has he even touched this year?
 
CrimsonK said:
I was monitoring 5dimes all day yesterday. Stepped away for short time and missed this open at 3.5. Needless to say, I was chapped.

!
Click to expand...

I'm as fanatical as getting early line value as you are...but I think statistically bowl season has shown that the spread often doesn't even come into play.

I have to remind myself to chill out when the bowl lines are released (like really restrain myself) because I want to hammer all of these lines and I forget how much can change personnel and coaching wise in the course of 3-4 weeks or so.

Of course, I'm not telling you anything you don't already know:-). I just know that me personally I try not to beat myself up too much over missing the early bowl openers.
 
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I will take my time, Ali but will fire on some. I don't understand the LSU line.

Memphis released at plus 10 last week and we all assumed it was because they didn't account for the Milton issue at all. Ends up closing at around 3 which means the market put the value of Milton at around a td. Without Milton they are plus 7 against LSU .. so with him they would be around pick?? +3 or +4? Let's say his value is 3.5 points, that makes UCF pick or minus 1 to LSU at home were Milton there? hahahah no way.

That line is so far off that you have to bet it.
 
Can you do the same as CK and post all your picks in a single post. Nobody is going to call you on integrity. Just time stamp the pick and update the top post. I have always reviewed your bowl picks and it makes it easier to locate.
 
Any thoughts on Florida +7? Michigan cant be excited to be in this game, and Jim has zero imagination so his O wont change. Really think this game is closer to a pk on a neutral field.....
 
I haven't quite finished that game yet but will have a play and some reasoning for that game at some point. I do know for certain that I will not be taking Michigan in the game. Whether I end up on Florida or not, I am not sure yet. I might prefer a total there.
 
RetroVK said:
Oklahoma vs Alabama (Alabama -14 OVER 79)
Click to expand...

For the first time in history, you have more confidence in Alabama than I do. I think that Murray and Oklahoma's pace is going to give Alabama's defense some headaches. Alabama has struggled with defensive communication, and this would be a bad game for communication issues to rear their ugly head.

Had to fathom a scenario where Alabama's offense doesn't flourish versus Oklahoma's inferior talent, but Tua's health is definitely a concern. I think he'll be healthy enough to play, but I don't think he'll be 100%. Not sure how his health will affect Bama's RPO game. His early injury completely nullified the RPOs in the Georgia game.

I do think that Bama's superior depth will ultimately be the difference, so I'm not concerned about them losing the game. Just not super confident they'll win by more than two TDs.
 
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booksbestfriend said:
I think Stoops popped off at the mouth the last time these 2 played in the Sugar, so could be some additional motivation.
Click to expand...

Well, I think the additional motivation factor for Alabama would be if Kyler Murray wins the Heisman. In fact, that will probably be the deciding factor in how I bet this game. If Tua wins, I think the game will be close. If Murray wins, it may be an ass-whoppin' ala Gino Torretta in 1992/93.

Credit Stoops. He ran his mouth, and backed it up.
 
Long time reader, 1st time poster...just want to throw this out....and by no means do I think Oaklahoma wins, BUT....over the past 7-8 years, the teams to beat Nick have generally had mobile/running QBs, Cam, Johnny football, Barrett, Knight, Nick Marshall, Deshaun, (and those Bama defenses were definitely better than this year's squad)....those are a few off the top of my head....I would say Murray is better than all of those guys...may not equal a win, but should be a great game...
I'll go back in my hole....I ENJOY this forum guys...keep it up!!!
 
I played the over along with Alabama so it isn't that I think the Alabama will completely shut down the OU offense and/or Murray. I do think that Alabama can do whatever they want when they have the football .. whether that is handing it off and running them over, or whether it is through the air. While Murray may give them more trouble than your average Joe (I think that is a given of a sort with regard to what he is capable of), I don't think he can do enough to stay within this number. Sometimes in a situation like this, where I think the opponent has an offense ideally equipped for a backdoor cover, I might consider the first half bet. However, in this instance, I think the Bama offense can wear down that oklahoma team and just be able to run it down their throats late with relative ease .. meaning, a front door score or two in the fourth quarter is in play just as much as the backdoor score.

If Murray humiliates the Bama defense, at least I will have seen something. I honestly don't think you can do much better than what Watson and Clemson were able to do to this Bama defense (though this defense might not be as good as that one), and I don't think that is enough to keep up here.
 
RetroVK said:
I played the over along with Alabama so it isn't that I think the Alabama will completely shut down the OU offense and/or Murray. I do think that Alabama can do whatever they want when they have the football .. whether that is handing it off and running them over, or whether it is through the air. While Murray may give them more trouble than your average Joe (I think that is a given of a sort with regard to what he is capable of), I don't think he can do enough to stay within this number. Sometimes in a situation like this, where I think the opponent has an offense ideally equipped for a backdoor cover, I might consider the first half bet. However, in this instance, I think the Bama offense can wear down that oklahoma team and just be able to run it down their throats late with relative ease .. meaning, a front door score or two in the fourth quarter is in play just as much as the backdoor score.

If Murray humiliates the Bama defense, at least I will have seen something. I honestly don't think you can do much better than what Watson and Clemson were able to do to this Bama defense (though this defense might not be as good as that one), and I don't think that is enough to keep up here.
Click to expand...

I don't really think Oklahoma will win, and don't necessarily disagree with your analysis. I do think it'll be a volatile game - one where I'm not real excited about laying two touchdowns. If, however, Tua doesn't win the Heisman, I do think that'll provide extra motivation for Bama. That could sway me to your side.
 
Blueboy said:
Long time reader, 1st time poster...just want to throw this out....and by no means do I think Oaklahoma wins, BUT....over the past 7-8 years, the teams to beat Nick have generally had mobile/running QBs, Cam, Johnny football, Barrett, Knight, Nick Marshall, Deshaun, (and those Bama defenses were definitely better than this year's squad)....those are a few off the top of my head....I would say Murray is better than all of those guys...may not equal a win, but should be a great game...
I'll go back in my hole....I ENJOY this forum guys...keep it up!!!
Click to expand...
Great post. Keep on posting!
 
I decided the same to wait until closer to the actual games to make plays. Trying to decipher personnel situations, coaching, motivation etc. is really tough sometimes. You never know how much trouble some of these kids can get into in 3 weeks time.
 
AliShaheed said:
I'm as fanatical as getting early line value as you are...but I think statistically bowl season has shown that the spread often doesn't even come into play.

I have to remind myself to chill out when the bowl lines are released (like really restrain myself) because I want to hammer all of these lines and I forget how much can change personnel and coaching wise in the course of 3-4 weeks or so.

Of course, I'm not telling you anything you don't already know:). I just know that me personally I try not to beat myself up too much over missing the early bowl openers.
Click to expand...
I NEVER bet a game 2-4 weeks prior to kickoff with all the changes that we've seen in Bowl history.
Michigan gets smashed on Nov 24th and we're supposed to know whether to take or go against on December 29th, on December 2nd? Makes no sense. Wait
 
I will try and have the full bowl schedule up by tonight or tomorrow morning in window one.

I have no issue with playing the games early. An injury/suspension/firing/arrest/academic failure/etc is just as likely to benefit you as hurt you. Whatever small difference that impacts you is likely less impactful than the long term loss of not having taken available value. I just meant that I won't be posting the made plays until day of the game or a few days prior for personal reasons.

As for the spread not coming into play as much, that is because the lines are much smaller in bowl season due to the level of competition tending to be more evenly matched and therefore it is more aligned with NFL in that respect than most of the weekly season results will show. The window between outright winning and the final line is just smaller.

while I am typing .. a quick glance a the army vs navy game ...

As AFA represents option vs option, even if different (note Navy also played Tulane) in form, it does give us a sneak peak.

Navy 9 FD
Army 16 FD

Navy 17 FD Allowed
Army 17 FD Allowed

Navy Total Yards 178
Army Total Yards 286

Navy Total Yards Allowed 399
Army Total Yards Allowed 322

What stands out? Well, it looks like Army was a little better than Navy in the respective games but maybe that doesn't pan out over a series of games ... but what likely does pan out over a series of games is visible here, which is that the game is likely to have a low number of yards, low number of possessions, and therefore a low number of opportunities for Army to extend leads to a second score. The nature of the two offenses lends itself to a low scoring game. In this case, I think the total is not wrong. This year will be one of the only years that I don't have a bet, in some way, shape or form, on the under. The books have consistently totaled this way too high. But other than a couple of books and for just a short period of time, this one has largely been totaled accurately.

While the two records are not similar, neither are their schedules. Navy has played a much more difficult schedule than Army. I don't think this is very debatable so I won't proof it out, but what I do want to talk about is Navy improvement.

After their 35 to 7 loss against Air Force the Midshipmen have done the following ...

Lost by 7 vs Temple
Lost by 13 vs Houston
Lost by 22 vs Notre Dame
Lost by 42 vs Cinci (bad matchup and spot)
Lost by 11 vs UCF
Beat Tulsa by 8
Lost by 1 to Tulane

six of seven of those teams are bowl eligible, and all (Tulane?) of those teams would be favored over this Army team. If you dig deeper into the numbers, you will see that the Yards per play side of the equation improves when adjusting for opponent. Basically, Army is class relief, particularly in tempo.

So given I expect 2 possessions a quarter or thereabouts, and given the class relief, and given that we have evidence that Navy can somewhat slow opposing option attacks, and we have some historical data with regard to blowouts, it seems like Navy is the play with the points.
 
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Army is actually favored over Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl, but I get your point on class relief.
 
AliShaheed said:
I'm as fanatical as getting early line value as you are...but I think statistically bowl season has shown that the spread often doesn't even come into play.
Click to expand...
Presumably it's only because the lines are so much smaller.
 
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