Thursday MLB Discussion

Sup rex. Crazy ass game....Have ZONA ML and small parlay Zona-Over . Would love to get some payback for the Orioles collapse. BOL
 
I knew the Wash total was off . Unfortunately I played both 1st 5 over and game over splitting . While I knew the LAA over was off as well I only played the game over . Little shit like that kills my profits no consistency from me
 
Balt fucked up huge . I commented as it became 3-2 I was getting worried . I did think when it was 5-2 we were good but Balt did the worst thing u can do in baseball is allow the opponent to answer you score . Jays get the 2 right back and O's find a way to lose . Looks like Johnson and Sherrill are overworked as that once great pen got hit hard by injuries Albers , Bradford , Walker off the top of my head....

Feel for ya bro...thats what I hate watching my blood pressure skyrockets
 
Another lead by AZ. Jesus God. I never thyought I'd say this but can WASH be stopped from scoring this inning? Their Possessed
 
Here's what I bet today...

Milk UNDER. Rockies get four hits and one run; game still flies over.

Reds and OVER. Never a sweat. Lilly at Wrigley with wind blowing out.

Arizona -138. LOVED UNDER with the clubber but passed it because it went against the correlation. Thank God, as I would be beating my head against the wall for easily one of the 2-3 worst beats anyone has taken all season. Still sweating the side. As earlier stated; I basically jotted it down as a winner (never do it on paper, but in my head, I did)... then a loser at 2-2 when the Senators had them jacked.... then a winner at 5-2, then a loser at 5-5 with a man on third with one out.....

Detroit RL. Thanks a lot, Todd Jones.

Seattle +166. Ha. Morrow and his 0.68 league leading ERA serves up two dongs in the 9th and I lose in extras.

Cleveland small. Every wiseguy in North America except for Doc Midlen was on the Tribe. Shoulda laid the 108.

Texas ML - a fade of Lackey. Why not bet the OVER? Just not thinking.

Kansas City/ChiSox OVER 8.5... Looks like a loser.

Now the D-Backs are up 6-5 with a man on second, LOL. I WILL NOT GRADE THIS GAME, EVEN IN MY HEAD...

LOL just needed to vent/talk... I'm sure you guys have had an up-and-down day too. It's been a sweatbox for about the last 9 hours for me.
 
Gunned at the plate. tell Stephen Drew to get the fucking piano off his back. Ninety seven percent of the runners in baseball score on that play.
 
SportsNut said:
I knew the Wash total was off . Unfortunately I played both 1st 5 over and game over splitting . While I knew the LAA over was off as well I only played the game over . Little shit like that kills my profits no consistency from me
Click to expand...


Please don't tell me you are referring to the Washinigton game as being 'off' if you think OVER was the right side in the game.

The truly correct total up there was about 5.5.
 
The total should have never opened at 7.5 . Webb vs Perez was 7.5 and was 2-0 . It should have opened 7 .

Since you just joined the discussion I understand you probably missed my pregames comments . Again to many people get caught up in how wins and losses occur . The games are simply the storyline not everything goes according to plan in sports or life . That's how I approach it . I certainly dont think the Orioles were the right side if they lost but I know not everyone agrees.

Your right CKR if a total should have ever opened @ 6.5 it was this one . If every Wiseguy had CLE guess I am pretty wise...lol....

Wash game shouldnt gave gone over but it did ...

I dont want to argue about opinions its a waste ...
 
SportsNut said:
Something seems off with the Wash total . Haren has been on a super streak and shutdown Nats at home with Cooper no less calling balls and strikes . Nats minus Dukes lose even more punch . Bergmann has pitched real well but is always a tough luck loser cause he gets no run support and usually opposes other teams top SP's.

He pitched okay @ Zona . Only okay despite his line because he allowed 4 solo HRs !! His track record is so-so vs Zona in limited work . The one thing that stands out is since his call up from the minors really only 1 very good start came on extra rest .

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=middle><TD colSpan=20>MAY </TD></TR><TR class=bg4 vAlign=top><TH>DATE</TH><TH>TEAM</TH><TH>OPP</TH><TH>RESULT</TH><TH>RECORD</TH><TH>SV</TH><TH>ERA</TH><TH>GS</TH><TH>CG</TH><TH>SHO</TH><TH>IP</TH><TH>H</TH><TH>R</TH><TH>ER</TH><TH>HR</TH><TH>BB</TH><TH>SO</TH><TH>HBP</TH><TH>WP</TH><TH>BK</TH></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>05/15</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>@NYM</TD><TD>W 1-0</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>7.45</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD>05/20</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>PHI</TD><TD>L 0-1</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>5.47</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>05/26</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>MIL</TD><TD>L 3-4</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4.50</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>5.2</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD>05/31</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>@ARI</TD><TD>L 0-4</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4.50</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>8.0</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=middle><TD colSpan=20>JUNE </TD></TR><TR class=bg4 vAlign=top><TH>DATE</TH><TH>TEAM</TH><TH>OPP</TH><TH>RESULT</TH><TH>RECORD</TH><TH>SV</TH><TH>ERA</TH><TH>GS</TH><TH>CG</TH><TH>SHO</TH><TH>IP</TH><TH>H</TH><TH>R</TH><TH>ER</TH><TH>HR</TH><TH>BB</TH><TH>SO</TH><TH>HBP</TH><TH>WP</TH><TH>BK</TH></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>06/06</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>SF</TD><TD>L 1-10</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>5.23</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>3.0</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD>06/12</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>@PIT</TD><TD>L 5-7</TD><TD>1-4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>5.48</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4.2</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>06/18</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>@MIN</TD><TD>L 2-11</TD><TD>1-5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>5.03</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD>06/23</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>ANA</TD><TD>L 2-3</TD><TD>1-5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4.60</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>06/29</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>BAL</TD><TD>W 3-2</TD><TD>1-5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4.26</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=middle><TD colSpan=20>JULY </TD></TR><TR class=bg4 vAlign=top><TH>DATE</TH><TH>TEAM</TH><TH>OPP</TH><TH>RESULT</TH><TH>RECORD</TH><TH>SV</TH><TH>ERA</TH><TH>GS</TH><TH>CG</TH><TH>SHO</TH><TH>IP</TH><TH>H</TH><TH>R</TH><TH>ER</TH><TH>HR</TH><TH>BB</TH><TH>SO</TH><TH>HBP</TH><TH>WP</TH><TH>BK</TH></TR><TR class=bg3><TD>07/04</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>@CIN</TD><TD>L 0-3</TD><TD>1-6</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4.15</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Bergmann has recieved 17 runs of support in the 10 starts since his callup !! With 5 coming in one game . Twice each he recieved 2 and 3 runs . So thats 5 times he saw 1 run or less !!

UNDER just seems to obvious to open at 7.5 runs IMO .....think Bergmann gets hit here somehow ...:shake:
Click to expand...


How I thought would go over I was wrong as bergmann did not get hit but Zona had chances and blew them. Simply I saw the line as incorrect and bet accordingly .:shake:Its only 1 game Ithought the Philly over was off as in to high and was mistaken .
 
im pretty sure books thought they could get even action w/ the 7.5 and when public pounded the under they quickly moved it to 7 w/ under juice. under was definately the play. no way vegas thought that was going to happen. they thought it was going to be under and every single possible thing had to go wrong for it to go over. that was some funny shit man. i wrote on here that i might not play lad/fla because i was up huge but instead i lose everything.
 
Look at it this way - Zona had a bunch of chances to score and didn't. So if they do that, then the result comes up, what, 3-2 or 4-2 in nine innings? Still a dead-ass under.

You have a philosophical difference to me and for some reason I can't beat it into your head that you can be on the right side of games and still lose, just like you can be on the wrong side of games and still win... but please don't try to pound that into the forum's head - especially the newbies. It's tough enough to try to bet baseball and make money on a daily basis... I've seen the people who win for a living and they all look at it exactly the same way that I do. Exactly. I've been running bad but I've got a guy who is freerolling me just for my lines and info - he's not upset that we're down for the year because he knows that those same breaks went my way a good part of last year. Dem's the breaks.

Anyways, GL the rest of the games you got tonight. Nice call on the Royals; I liked them but let me excitement for the OVER get in the way (over was correlated to the White Sox so I passed the side)...

How about 'dem Rangers? Maybe I'll get one back. To the 8th, 10-10...

Headed for the padd...

:shake:
 
tejas can plan smash the ball

if there pitching was any good they would be legit

they dont seem like much but damn...with Young, Josh and Kinsler...nice talent
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Here's what I bet today...

Milk UNDER. Rockies get four hits and one run; game still flies over.

Reds and OVER. Never a sweat. Lilly at Wrigley with wind blowing out.

Arizona -138. LOVED UNDER with the clubber but passed it because it went against the correlation. Thank God, as I would be beating my head against the wall for easily one of the 2-3 worst beats anyone has taken all season. Still sweating the side. As earlier stated; I basically jotted it down as a winner (never do it on paper, but in my head, I did)... then a loser at 2-2 when the Senators had them jacked.... then a winner at 5-2, then a loser at 5-5 with a man on third with one out.....

Detroit RL. Thanks a lot, Todd Jones.

Seattle +166. Ha. Morrow and his 0.68 league leading ERA serves up two dongs in the 9th and I lose in extras.

Cleveland small. Every wiseguy in North America except for Doc Midlen was on the Tribe. Shoulda laid the 108.

Texas ML - a fade of Lackey. Why not bet the OVER? Just not thinking.

Kansas City/ChiSox OVER 8.5... Looks like a loser.

Now the D-Backs are up 6-5 with a man on second, LOL. I WILL NOT GRADE THIS GAME, EVEN IN MY HEAD...

LOL just needed to vent/talk... I'm sure you guys have had an up-and-down day too. It's been a sweatbox for about the last 9 hours for me.
Click to expand...


I guess maybe thats what I am on edge myself CKR long day for me as well. My plays were 50 deep.....

Night :
Indians ML (3u)
Und 8.5 Cle (1.5u)
Orioles 1st 5 ML (.75u)
Under 8.5 Balt (.75u)
Orioles ML (1.5u)
Over 9 NYY (.75u)
Pirates +1.5 RL (1.5u)
Over 9 Texas (2.25u)
Zona ML (1u)
Zona over 7 (1.25u)
Zona over 3. 1st 5 (1.25u)
Over 7 & Zona (to win +1.5)
Zona 1st score (.5u)
KC ML (2.25u)
Under 8.5 KC (last sec add) (.75u)
Marlins ML (1u)
Over 8.5 LAD (1u)

Day :
Under 5 1st 5 Det (1.5u)
Det ML (.75u)
Under 9 Det (.75u)
SFG over 8.5 (2u)
Philly ML 2.5u)
Over 10 Philly (2.5u)
Over Philly 1st 5 (.75U)
Under 9.5 Milw (1u)
Under 5 1st 5 inn Milw (1u)
Col +1.5 RL (1u)
Reds Over 11 (2.25u)
Reds 1st 5 ML (.75)
Reds +1.5 RL (1u)
Oak ML (1u)
Under 8.5 (1u)
Under 4.5 1st 5 Oak (1u)
Parlay : KC , Cle , Over SFG and Twins +1.5 RL (to win +4.5 units)

Think I pissed away a UNIT on 2 parlays I lost earlier as well....

So hectic is an understatement ....:cheers:
 
I had the fucking Orioles and after preaching about their pen being horrid last night, played the full game instead of the 5 innings. Just plain dumb.

Sherril will blow at least 7 saves in the second half......
 
And now I'm sitting here watching Chan Ho throw batting practice to the Marlins cringing as my biggest play of the day slowly but surely slides into the firey pit of hell (UNDER 8.5).

Even Vin's voice is annoying me at the moment.
 
Hard to bet an UNDER when any guy is coming off the DL - I liked the Dodgers but wasn't wiling to pay a premium on Ho Chan Park, especially considering that this is 2008 - not 1998...
 
Yeah, my play was based on the dodger bats, and Chan's recent success.. I'm not a fan of Andruw and Nomar being on this team, let alone in the lineup.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Look at it this way - Zona had a bunch of chances to score and didn't. So if they do that, then the result comes up, what, 3-2 or 4-2 in nine innings? Still a dead-ass under.

You have a philosophical difference to me and for some reason I can't beat it into your head that you can be on the right side of games and still lose, just like you can be on the wrong side of games and still win... but please don't try to pound that into the forum's head - especially the newbies. It's tough enough to try to bet baseball and make money on a daily basis... I've seen the people who win for a living and they all look at it exactly the same way that I do. Exactly. I've been running bad but I've got a guy who is freerolling me just for my lines and info - he's not upset that we're down for the year because he knows that those same breaks went my way a good part of last year. Dem's the breaks.

Anyways, GL the rest of the games you got tonight. Nice call on the Royals; I liked them but let me excitement for the OVER get in the way (over was correlated to the White Sox so I passed the side)...

How about 'dem Rangers? Maybe I'll get one back. To the 8th, 10-10...

Headed for the padd...

:shake:
Click to expand...

Trust me CKR I have a tremendous amount of respect for you . Tremendous . Unfortunately people dont understand unreasonable things happen in life and at times they happen when we have money on them . There is no PERSONAL factor in gambling . Meaning the outcome doesnt happen to you , it doesnt happen to me , it just occurs . As people we take it personal . As in LUCK . I simply feel the events are predetermined and how the game plays out is simply the way the story unfolds . Thats why people get premonitions and gut feelings . A little crazy but its how I see things .

When I say RIGHT I do not mean LOGICAL. You are absolutely correct in saying its ILLOGICAL that the Nats game went over . I agree . My point is not everything happens logical . Why do must illogical things happen when there is such 1 sided perception ? Like Cle winning 13-2 or Det blowing a 6-2 lead and the line dropped 20-30 cents , why the Texas total opened 9.5 and closed at 9 yets it 10-10 in the 7th inning , why the Nats total opened 7.5 closed at 7 and just when the under looked safe the wheels fell off , etc ......strange things happen when people think things are obvious .

Everything IMO happens in patterns . Thats what guys like BC and Tuck do they look to exploit patterns . Being successful at gambling is more then knowing the players anyone can research and learn that . So all I said was something was off about the total and I was rewarded for that in an unconventional manner . I dont need to call the game exactly to feel like I was on the right track.

Basically I think people expect everything to happen logically and when it doesnt its a curse on them . I guess when you wake up one day and 2 planes fly into the place you work you realize not everything is logical in life , no higher power did to this me , it simply was meant to me this way and every aspect of my life lead me to this day . Which in sports terms maybe the repeated failures early on in the baseball game is why the seemingkly succeeded everytime late in the game. Its all intertwined .....one pitch to the next all play role ..........everything has a purpose ..whether its a pitch , a missed jumper , an incomplete pass , it all plays a role in what happens next IMO.....

Wrong and Right should not be used in gambling they important words are WINNING and LOSING ....Wrong and Right are again personal .....

So I dont think anyone was wrong for playing certain things such as the UNDER 7 but its foolish to think one would bet the samething again in the same situation. happily the same situation will never occur again ......

I think you get my point . Taking the games literal is a no-no. Thats what I have been doing reading inbewteen the lines before the events occur . Predicting a pitcher will have a good or bad start based on the things that go unnoticed ....

Just my approach and would hope people learn from it because its the best way to approach any sort of risk taking . :shake:
 
you thought what happened in washington tonight was predetermined? i would bet under 7 100 out of 100 times because it would win 90 of the times and i got fucked on one of the few times it got crazy and shit happened.
 
scdoggy said:
I'm going to go throw darts at Chan Ho's face. Better luck tomorrow guys.

:cheers::whip:
Click to expand...


:cheers:

and ill throw them at rauch's

what a fuckjob for under backers.

have the nats fucked you many times this year as well? must be that whole local-team jinx... fondy was takin it pretty bad from the screwers this year so far too.
 
i needed arizona to end it or washington to end it on a walkoff which was very doable. neither happened
 
once that happened i knew your predetermined "forces" were here to really ruin my fucking god damn day
 
last night i had ov 7 lad/atl. same situation, it was a dead under and it stayed that way like a normal game. 2-1 final. that was for a monsterous payday if i got that
 
schwank, wawrinka, berdych, cornet parlay tomorrow if you want some early tennis action. pays nearly 3:1
 
SN, i laughed out loud when i saw you had 50 plays today. that is some of the funniest shit ive ever seen. my head would be spinning
 
those are banker tennis plays, unless your predetermined forces have them firing a bunch of unforced errors?
 
jimbo1227 said:
you thought what happened in washington tonight was predetermined? i would bet under 7 100 out of 100 times because it would win 90 of the times and i got fucked on one of the few times it got crazy and shit happened.
Click to expand...

The point you missed is the line opened 7.5 which I said was to high . If it happened opened 7 its a diffferent story . Of all people Jimbo and I dont want to argue with you but you got down on what had to be one of the must "public" plays of the day . Yes , I think everything is predetermined its why you knew you were fucked when it went to xtras . Cause its happens like that alot . The craziest things all happens when perception is strongest .....

Funny how Park is getting hit tonight . As soon as people start buying into his stats he reverts .....

You would bet the under in this game everytime and it would lose everytime . Thats just how it is . It doesnt mean it was a bad play but obvious things just work out well . Usually when obvious things workout well they werent quite as obvious to everyone . You thought CLE was dead in the water and then within minutes they scored 5 runs how is that any different ?

All I said was the oopening was funny at 7.5 . There was no reason for it and books seemed to be baiting under money ....


I mean I did say Texas had a great shot at coming back and within seconds it was tied .....watch closely long enough and things become obvious . Not 100% of the time but overwheminly large % of the time...
 
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