Thursday MLB Discussion

that is just insane. that game should/would stay under 99.9999% of the time. that is all i fucking know
 
it was the best under of the day.. unless vegas called in a fix and told em to tease the shit out of everyone and then score a bunch at the end. it was suspicious washington was actually hitting, walking, scoring??
 
if like you said, bergmann got hit and arizona was up 3-1 or 4-0 and it went over i would say ya, you were for sure on the right side. i got baited into a huge public trap. but that was just a gangster under that took the worst beat
 
jimbo1227 said:
so do you think everything in life is predetermined?
Click to expand...

Yes , I do .

When someone says hey Mike a plane is going to hit the WTC not even 2 months before it happens you might believe as well. More so because he specifically told me I was not going to be in work that day and everyone around would be. Well come 9/11 you know how many people in the room survived ? Three . Him , me and one other guy . Everyone sitting near me died 20 something people .

It will get you thinking for sure. Then I looked at my life and wondered . The reason I skipped my carpool that day was so I could visit my girlfriend who lived an hour from me and still was in college. So what if she wasnt in my life ? How I would have overslept and not had my friend wake me up when he was waiting outside my house for me ? So how did she come into my life ? I met her a year prior through my best friend 's sister-in-law . My best friend I met 10 years earlier in college . What if I never went to that college ? What if I did not play baseball ? We played baseball together in college and were later roomates ? It all ties in together ....I dated his sister-in-law briefly what would have happened if it went somewhere long term or if I slept with her ? Would her best friend have dated me a year later ???

In my book everything happens for a reason .....

Why is almost every Lotto winner old or an immigrant ? How come you never see a 25 year old kid hit the jackpot for 60million ?
 
well if that is the case, which i have to say i believe too. but im a skeptical guy, call me doubting thomas. god is the one "directing traffic". maybe he constantly gives me bad beats to let me know sports betting is not what i can do for a living.
 
im just skeptical as to what is predetermined. is it just the really important shit or everything down to what you eat and shit?
 
Just saw on sportscenter......3B Reynolds for Zona....2 errors in the bottom of the 9th...insane
 
it is pretty similiar to some of the crazy shit that happens in the nba. books move the line from 195 to 193 and then a guy on a team down 10 w/ the total @ 191 hits a buzzer beater 3 to kill the o/u, and it was a great under the whole game until they scored 20 pts. in the final minute? i dont know how that shit happens man, but it does.
 
jimbo1227 said:
if like you said, bergmann got hit and arizona was up 3-1 or 4-0 and it went over i would say ya, you were for sure on the right side. i got baited into a huge public trap. but that was just a gangster under that took the worst beat
Click to expand...

Thats the thing Jimbo . I was trying to make a Logical reason for why this game would go over . I suspected the total was off . I couldnt see Haren getting hit so it had to be Bergmann or someones pen. On extra rest Bergmann was 4-2 over. I think your mistaking me as saying I knew it would happen like it did . I am just saying and you did to once the Nats fail to win the 9th its the way gambling works its going to go over ...

I am not saying I am right other then I spotted the total as being off. You were not wrong for your play and dont think your logic was wrong . My point is not everything is logical if it were everyone could predict the future because when A happened then B would follow everytime. Guys that hit .250 would go 1/4 everyday rather then 0-4 somedays and 2-4 others ......

It was terrible beat but what was the lesson ? Beware of UNDERS with heavy biases that drop ...... I am just calmly trying to help you understand the play was lost when you hit submit not in the 9th inning . The decision to play something or pass is the most important part of the day IMO....not the 9 innings or so that follows.....

Again dont take it personal it has nothing to do with you :cheers:
 
does god really have time to predetermine baseball games? he's like damn that game is going over boys.
 
my 2 cents is,

A game's coming flow is decided before the game begins, by things we can't see. The correlation of player biorhythms plus conscious intentionalities (which can offset or exacerbate biorhythms. ie, a satisfied mental state can undermine a strong biorhythm, a fired-up mental state can override a weak biorhythm) plus karma. Searching for statistical patterns from my POV is trying to get a gauge on such realities.

What happened in the Wash game is this, imo - the game was close right the way through. AZ edged ahead late, Wash had been in the game the whole way through simply refused to give up - goes to extras. AZ edges ahead again, Wash doesnt for an instant let any psychological quit enter their minds, again they tie it up a 2nd time. If AZ had been ahead 3-0, Wash wouldve scored 3 runs to tie it up. If AZ then went ahead 4-3, Wash would have only got 1, but they'd have tied it up. AZ is playing for more this season explains their greater energy reserves to put the game away.
 
jimbo1227 said:
it is pretty similiar to some of the crazy shit that happens in the nba. books move the line from 195 to 193 and then a guy on a team down 10 w/ the total @ 191 hits a buzzer beater 3 to kill the o/u, and it was a great under the whole game until they scored 20 pts. in the final minute? i dont know how that shit happens man, but it does.
Click to expand...

Exactly my point Jim. The strangest shit always happens on the games which move alot. I am not saying its a Vegas trap because Vegas would be alot richer then it is . Remember sports gambling isnt a big moneymaker for them.

Thats all I was saying when you see something that doesnt look right be careful...:shake:

Of course my 1st instinct was play the under but thats why I like to research things before I comment ...I am not a genius I am just perceptive ....
 
jimbo1227 said:
does god really have time to predetermine baseball games? he's like damn that game is going over boys.
Click to expand...

God doesnt play a role . Thats why we have free will to make our on decisions . Each decision leads us down a path and so and on....

People look to blame him when things go wrong as if he played a hand in it . I dont see it that way
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
my 2 cents is,

A game's coming flow is decided before the game begins, by things we can't see. The correlation of player biorhythms plus conscious intentionalities (which can offset or exacerbate biorhythms. ie, a satisfied mental state can undermine a strong biorhythm, a fired-up mental state can override a weak biorhythm) plus karma. Searching for statistical patterns from my POV is trying to get a gauge on such realities.

What happened in the Wash game is this, imo - the game was close right the way through. AZ edged ahead late, Wash had been in the game the whole way through simply refused to give up - goes to extras. AZ edges ahead again, Wash doesnt for an instant let any psychological quit enter their minds, again they tie it up a 2nd time. If AZ had been ahead 3-0, Wash wouldve scored 3 runs to tie it up. If AZ then went ahead 4-3, Wash would have only got 1, but they'd have tied it up. AZ is playing for more this season explains their greater energy reserves to put the game away.
Click to expand...


I think a game's flow is huge . When teams leave the door open thats how comebacks occur . Hence the terms put a team on its heels and things of that nature .....

I think though momentum is hard to explain both teams getting 3 runs in the 10th inning ...:shake:
 
jimbo1227 said:
the events that took place in that ninth inning will NEVER happen again.
Click to expand...

Okay I will prove you wrong . Last time I saw a total that looked dead under but opened higher was when CC was @ LAD. What happened in that game ??

Now tell me ur play will win 99% of the time ......:36_11_6:
 
i've talked to BC before about his "deep" shit. i love that shit. i guess the way he puts it makes me feel not bad at all about that loss now. those guys were going to score runs in bottom 9 no matter what. i had a low total and it was in danger in a 2-2 game.
 
that was a rough beat but not as bad as this imo. that is the reason i knew it was going over. because the road team can score as many as they want and home team can fire back, so the possibility of more than 1 run is decent.
 
the fact that neither team could end that fucking game in the ninth inning was pretty fucking unbelievable.
 
Summary

Cleveland at LA Dodgers
<TABLE class=s-o cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=active width="15%">Final </TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">1</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">2</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">3</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">4</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">5</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">6</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">7</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">8</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">9</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">X</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">R</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">H</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="5%">E</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="15%" colSpan=2>ML</TD><TD class=dataheadc>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD>CLE </TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>7 </TD><TD align=middle>11</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>-131</TD><TD align=middle>
double-left.gif
</TD><TD align=middle>
double-up.gif
</TD></TR><TR><TD>LA </TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>2 </TD><TD align=middle>9</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>8.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Just in case you forgot this game ...and YES , I had the OVER .....and it won in the b11th
 
jimbo1227 said:
i've talked to BC before about his "deep" shit. i love that shit. i guess the way he puts it makes me feel not bad at all about that loss now. those guys were going to score runs in bottom 9 no matter what. i had a low total and it was in danger in a 2-2 game.
Click to expand...

Exactly bro. I hope you know I would be the last person pulling I was right and you were wrong teenager game . Just trying to point out the game had FUCK YOU written all over it. Nothing more . I rather we both win and hell I said I would take a push for your sakes while it was going on. :cheers:
 
and actually the fact that total was 8.5 is fucking shady. 7.5 isn't shady and when they move it to 7 they were desperate to get people on the over. i know it dude.
 
public plays win pretty often too and i think that doesnt have anything to do w/ th crazy shit that happened.
 
jimbo - replace the word god with karma, and you're on the button.

I'd just relate something thats my personal belief about the way reality works, and its why I believe breaks are in order when you've been losing in a bad way over a stretch.

Thoughts of a certain nature attract future realities that match them. If you keep thinking about bad loss after bad loss, you'll find youself attracted to games whose karma is to play out as a "bad loss" for the losing side.
I've been guilty of this recently prior to my taking a break a couple of weekends back. Couldnt get over game after game I bet to go Over going Under miraculously. Realised my built up thought patterns were drawing me to bet such games which "were doomed" to play out that way. Took a break (betting only a side while absent) and since Ive been back from that break while I've had a couple more such losses, I've let them slide after the fact, but generally things have been much better than they were. As a consequence, I had a parlay hit which involved 3 miraculous like Overs coming in, and the Sunday nighter (NYY/BOS O8.5) hit when really it shouldnt have. There's no way that happens for me prior to my break.

Watch your thoughts over bad beats, and clear your mind via a break if you find yourself suffering a string of them. But dwelling on that energy only creates more of that energy, and then you have to be suspect of anything you're drawn to back.

Every day carries at least 1 kind of bad beat playing out somewhere. You carry too much of that energy, then you're going to find that total or side.
 
jimbo1227 said:
and actually the fact that total was 8.5 is fucking shady. 7.5 isn't shady and when they move it to 7 they were desperate to get people on the over. i know it dude.
Click to expand...

Its not shady . Its my point . It has to leave that feeling of almost ...If it was shady wouldnt Cle just score all 7 .....
 
ya know i really don't care about the money. i bet chump change but that was just some of the craziest shit ive seen in MLB betting at least...
 
ya i guess at times you think, man it seems everything that should happen from doing research of "past results" aren't playing out like it appears. in short, anything that is possible can happen.
 
i thought o/u's have great value but i've had 10x more bad beats on totals. i feel like i could go 70-80% playing just sides. dogs & favs
 
if that game was 8-0 arizona it would feel like a bad beat but that is just another loss on a public play.
 
I agree BC.

I did bet CLE today thinking that Karma would lead them to win after yesterday's almost win.....

And its not so much about public plays as overwhelming perception which generally do turn into public plays. People will say ARIZONA had 80% on them but I know there was enough people who are down ARI to see Wash +125 with bergmann throwing good game after good game thinking he can win the game. Thats why% arent really my concern.

Sometimes % do help clarify the perception issue and other times they dont .

People saying Lackey wasnt as bad as his stats suggest last start and seemingly creating this perception he will bounce back or he was better then he looked , help me know he is probably going to stay in this funk. People quoting Chan Ho Parks Home stats like Bible verses helps me figure out he should regress here . Why ? perception gets ahead of reality . I always say ask why something occurs . Park was facing dead lineups in his spot starts and FLA was quite the opposite .....

So I just look to make sense of what happens .....and apply it for the future .......
 
Another example .

Guy makes a great play in the field to end an inning then he leads off doesnt he almost always get a hit ?

Or when teams have bases loaded no out and dont score . Doesnt the next half inning usually see the other team score or the leadoff guy HR .....

If this was logical it would be easy . Worrying about right and wrong is useless. Its why I hate value plays . What value is there in a losing play ? So saying I am playing team X at +250 because the price is to high is foolish and I say it all the time. Price doesnt dictate value the situation does .

Alright enough chatter from . Good Luck all on the pending plays ....
 
"Price doesnt dictate value the situation does" i subrscribe to this religiously. i remember i was on your side when you were talking to vegaskyle about it. i dont care what the fucking line is, i care about what i believe is going to happen in that game, and i bet accordingly
 
i didnt look at the line and say damn that looks high for this game. i said damn this is going to be the fucking lowest scoring game of the day. it was and i lost. FINE
 
i really felt kinda shitty when they left haren in there. but im sure he told the coach he wanted to finish the game because he had only given up one fucking hit the entire fucking game.
 
jimbo1227 said:
when it was the middle of the 9th nut, 2-0, you had to think your over was in bad shape.
Click to expand...

As far as "public" plays think about what you said . The side ML stayed range bound like140 to 150 . The total went from 7.5 -110 to 7 u-120 and you think there was more on Zona ? Forget betting %'s. Think logical . As I said there could be a case for value on Wash since they won yesterday , only lost 2-0 on Tuesday and had there best SP going . So I dont buy 80% of anything on the DBacks . Plus the series was I think ARI -185 and the deciding game was -150 if it was public the price would have been higher in this game .....

I am absolutely THINKING I over thought this bitch. There were quite a few Zona chances to score some runs though . Think Zona had 2 on in the top 9th alone...once the nats get MOB I am absolutely thinking extras. I think if you check back as soon as the bases were loaded I typed I need extras @ Wash ....I knew if it went to extras it would fall apart just from experience ......

Plus on the topic of public plays and this holds tru in every sport rarely do both public plays lose - side and total in 1 game . That would mean the sportsbooks cleans up or is cleaned out and that just doesnt happen....usually the books get the split and the vig......

Its not a conspiracy by the books or a trap its as BC said more about karma then anything....:shake:
 
i wonder if there was ever a game in which it was 0-0 after 9 innings and then went over the total of 10 or 11 in extra innings.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

VirginiaCavs
Tuesday Discussion Thread
2
Replies
50
Views
403
Inspekdah
Inspekdah
VirginiaCavs
Monday Discussion Thread
2
Replies
58
Views
507
CPA-hole
CPA-hole
VirginiaCavs
Friday Discussion Thread
2 3
Replies
116
Views
628
2daBank
2daBank
VirginiaCavs
Wednesday Discussion Thread
Replies
41
Views
326
KJ
KJ
VirginiaCavs
Friday Discussion Thread
2
Replies
50
Views
398
peelpub94
peelpub94
Back
Top