Thursday MLB Discussion

Man, weather.com has me all confused. It has the Phils coming in at 10, now has CHC blowing out at 14.
 
Lilly has been solid lately but hasnt ben sharp IMO . Votto owned his last game with 5 RBIs and Reds are all or nothing vs LHSP. Think 4-3 Over L7 but the unders were Hamels , Pettitte and Sabithia which they scored 1 TOTAL run . Arroyo nota favorable situation and despite some real good outings vs Cubbie his 2 @ Wrigley didnt look ver good in 2007 . Both pens shaky . Two flyball SP in the Wrigley wind. Lilly higher ERA and BAA on normal rest ...Just expect one of these guys to fall to pieces .....

BOL
 
Goldsheet seems to jive with weather.com
<table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><th class="TSN2" bgcolor="#ccccdd">St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, 1:05 p.m.</th></tr> <tr><td class="TSN1">
sunny.gif
Sunny. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 85. </td></tr></tbody></table> <table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><th class="TSN2" bgcolor="#ccccdd">San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, 1:10 p.m.</th></tr> <tr><td class="TSN1">
sunny.gif
Sunny. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 80. </td></tr></tbody></table> <table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><th class="TSN2" bgcolor="#ccccdd">Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, 2:05 p.m.</th></tr> <tr><td class="TSN1">
partly_cloudy.gif
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 80. </td></tr></tbody></table> <table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><th class="TSN2" bgcolor="#ccccdd">Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 p.m.</th></tr> <tr><td class="TSN1">
partly_cloudy.gif
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to center field at 10-20 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 80.</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Not beat a dead horse with the wind subject but they delay the Wrigley totals for a reason. I dont think they are going hang a 11 total on game that should be 9.5 if the wind is blowing in. Do you ? Plus once the weather warms the wind doesnt mean as much as the humidity IMO . Maybe out WEST at night the wind still comes into play but your getting to many situations where the ball isnt going to carry at this time of the year . Wind factors mean more in April and MAy when the weather is cool. Just my opinion though ...

Any thoughts on Sea @ Oak ?

Liking SEA ML or +1.5 and probably over .

Mariners have won 3 of 4 vs LHSP although the offense really wasnt the reason . In this OAK series Sexson swung well in game 1 , Beltre had a huge game and then had 3 more hits yesterday , Ichiro is showing life , Lopez swung well yesterday ...seems like they have a few vets starting to heat up but I actually want to see Sexson in the lineup to play SEA.

:cheers:
 
That Seattle game is way too many unknowns for my liking. I may play a small SEA play, perhaps the under. Seattle does hit lefties very well, but has never seen Smith. Dickey has been on lately, but he is so very unpredictable as well. Perhaps there is some value on Seattle.
 
Big Herm said:
That Seattle game is way too many unknowns for my liking. I may play a small SEA play, perhaps the under. Seattle does hit lefties very well, but has never seen Smith. Dickey has been on lately, but he is so very unpredictable as well. Perhaps there is some value on Seattle.
Click to expand...

Saw the lineup :

No Sexson but also no Ichiro !!

These Day splits for SEATTLE are OMG types !

Starting lineup is 165 / 653 (28 D 1 T ) 13 Hrs 78 RBI

Ibanez and Lopez have 6 hrs 36 rbi so the other 7 bats have 7Hrs(beltre 4 ) and 42 rbi .

The OPS are disgusting : Vidro 577 , Johijma 536 , Ciaro .522 Beltra 623 (.191 avg) only Ibanez as .863 is good .

SEA 5-6-7 hitters
39-184 1hr 16RBI in day games
Mix in Beltre
57-278 5hrs 25 RBI from half the lineup basically !!

Beltre does hit LHP at a 366 clip only 4hrs 11 rbi

Sexson 21-61 5hrs 12 RBI (3run Hr vs Eveland ) how does he sit here for Cairo 2-14 vs LHP BTW ??

Worse is Vidro 214 , Johijma 173 vs LHSP . So there middle of the order looks dead. Bloomquist is at least 366 vs LHP .



A's are 232 L7 games . Bankston is the one guy hitting well . Cust has 3 hrs but 138 , Ellis 2-27 074(below 200 athome) , Sweeney is 7-25 or 280 everyone else is around 250...

Hannahan is 33 in day games 24-72 and Gonzalez .303 10-33 the rest not impressive.

Ellis 265 , Brown 261 , Cust 244 6Hrs , Sweeney 255 , Bowen 9-36 250 , Murphy 4-21 .190 10Ks , Bankston 1-8 .....

With Oak's pen pitching well and Smith despite a high DAY ERA having a BAA near .210 on normal rest seems like an UNDER to me .....

As herm said Dickey the question mark ..?? Sea pen abit worn as well ...leaning Oakland here .....:shake:
 
jimbo1227 said:
actually, you will never see sexson in the lineup. he was released by the mariners today. lol
Click to expand...

Good shit Jimbo. I was thinking he had to be hurt or something I didnt read about ......

Shit they should have kept him one more day with a LH going :36_11_6:
 
The funny part was Sexson is he was productive vs LHP and on the road it was Safeco and RH that were killing him.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>2B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>3B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>RBI</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AVG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OBP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SLG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OPS</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> vs. Left</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>34</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>61</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>21</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>12</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>13</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.344</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.423</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.623</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.045</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> vs. Right</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>74</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>191</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>34</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>18</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>28</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>63</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.178</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.281</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.304</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.584</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> </TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>2B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>3B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>RBI</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AVG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OBP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SLG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OPS</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Home</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>37</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>129</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>23</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>16</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>37</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.178</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.267</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.256</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.523</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Away</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>37</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>123</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>19</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>32</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>24</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>21</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>39</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.260</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.363</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.512</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.875</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
I can't recall a week were I nailed the plays I liked at a ridiculous clip BUT changed my mind so often and lost nice sums going opposite of my orginal thinking .......

Worst week ever in decision making ....Really pissing me off at this point ....
 
7-3 Mets hit my over and SportsThing you are looking good now !!

I actually wouldnt mind seeing STL tie this game give my over 10 a shot
 
Bear said:
Sexton has been released by Seattle today.
Click to expand...

Funny thing is minus the DET series he has been swinging better . Think 3-10 vs Jays and 2-6 here . This series big 3 run Hr off Eveland and then a double off Dursch one of only 2 hits allowed.

Just bad timing IMO . Sexson has been terrible all season and now you dump him ? He didnt HR but hit 282 in June and while he was off to a slow start in July it was reall just the Det series and he has drawn 7bbs to 2 Ks. Just seemed like he was making some clear progress and well since you have to pay him anyway why not be patient now . May his BB to K rate was 2bb to 25 K ...he had 10 hits all month....
 
i cant find anything of interest in the late games. anything stick out to you SN? i was leaning under 7 ari/was, & LAD. but w/ a weak offense like the the dodgers parlayed w/ heavy injuries i just can't trust their offense. especially vs. a pretty damn respectable offense. i guess it was me thinking about betting on park and a fade of johnson, but i dont know the status of the big right hander anyway.
 
Kinda think twins win because DET had theer shot b9th and let it go to extras which is fine by the team that came back ...
 
jimbo1227 said:
i cant find anything of interest in the late games. anything stick out to you SN? i was leaning under 7 ari/was, & LAD. but w/ a weak offense like the the dodgers parlayed w/ heavy injuries i just can't trust their offense. especially vs. a pretty damn respectable offense. i guess it was me thinking about betting on park and a fade of johnson, but i dont know the status of the big right hander anyway.
Click to expand...

Still looking bro. Be back shortly:cheers:
 
Nice 5 unit swing on Detroit there, thanks Todd Jones. Still managed to escape the day only about 1 unit down at this point. A Seattle win would be nice.

On to the night though -

All I know now is that I am going to play Tampa. Looking the rest over.
 
Thanks Sports!

I knew Det was fools gold and yet played it small anyway . Never ever take a team who stole the game the day before especially playing a team in need of a win. Det should have not of win yesterday and well Minny should have not won today . The universe equalled itself out ....

Playing CLE ML and probably under .

Look at TB's lineup alot of LHB's .

There recent work vs LHSP since lighting up Saunders . UNimpressive .

Shutout @ NYY vs Pettitte , Won 4-3 @ Pitt vs Gorzelanny who was sent to the minors and he was good 2 solo Hrs and 8 Ks in 6 innings , beatup Hendrickson who is trash , won @ Fla vs Olsen but the pen blew it as Olsen went 7 inn 4 h 2 runs , won 4-3 home vs Wandy and even won 4-1 at home vs Hendrickson .

So basically all year away they scored 4 runs or less vs a LHSP in 9 of 13 . The Olsen start they scored 4 off the pen so that was another LH they struggled vs the other 3 were the Hendrickson day start , Saunders when Pena was out and Pettitte in his 1st start of the year but also 2 unearned runs.

Laffey has been so-so his last 2 starts but at home and on normal rest has been excellent .

4-3 2.15 ERA at home .223BAA (LHB 194)
2.64 ERA on normal rest in 5 starts ....

Sonnastine ERA is much higher on normal rest but he has been excellent past 2 starts .

What I said about DET above I expect the opposite for Cle as well. They should have won yesterday and now today they will find a way to win .....
 
i slammed cleveland tonight nut... i had the under yesterday in washington and it was nice so im on it again tonight w/ even better pitchers. i like the under better than haren and it is less juice. (side note: i had the over in every game in philly this week except today, what a fuckin joke that series was.) o/u have killed more than a couple 4 team parlays for me recently and i swear to god i am soo close to just becoming the richest mother fucker. i know parlays are terrible especially more than 2-3 teams, but ive become so good at capping that i hit 3 out of 4 every fucking time and i know i can hit em. no parlays for me tonight because i dont really like anything but im going to hit shit real soon.
 
it just fries my ass when i make amazing plays and go 7-2, betting underdogs along the way, and end up losing everything because they were parlayed w/ some fucking o/u that i get moosed on. sorry bout the rant but it is ridiculous if you saw what ive gone through.:popcorn::tiphat:
 
You make some very good points SN about Clev but I can't take a team in clev that lost 10 in a row even though I know they'll get the win soon. If clev leads early I look for their pen to give it up. The line is made for ppl to bet clev I beleive but I just can't stay away from betting TB at a small dog line. May the better team Win Today :shake:
 
herm, go through the tampa lineup and check out their numbers on the year against lefties. that put me over the top on making my play on cleveland. we usually agree on our plays too BH.
 
damn sportsthing, i would hate to lay heavy juice on a team that cannot hit a lick on the road against righties. no doubt haren will be dealing tonight but that doesnt warrant a play in my book. as for TB, pretty small odds and it is my estimation that they are luring money on TB which worked out well for them because public is fucking slamming TB ML at about 65-70%. ill take the desperate team at home. wedge met with his team and i bet it was some serious shit. im not worried about TB bats one fuckin bit. the only disadvantage i see is the bullpen and i hope cleveland will not fuckin blow it one time.
 
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