Thursday MLB Discussion

Josh Johnson (elbow) is scheduled to make his season debut Thursday against the Dodgers. Johnson has come back strong from Tommy John surgery, tossing eight scoreless innings in his fifth and final minor league rehab start Friday at Double-A. He's less than 12 months removed from going under the knife, so expect some struggles. If they're smart, the Marlins will be very careful with his workload initially.
 
Got a play in on Detroit as well. Rogers is probably good for 6 or 7 IP giving up anywhere from 2-4 runs. He has been fairly consistent lately and has good lifetime numbers against Morneau, Mauer, and some of the others. He is tougher on lefties for sure and Minny has a few, along with a sub .700 OPS vL.

Slowey has had recent succes against teams like Sd, MIL, and Wash - the 1st, 9th, and 13th ranked teams in K/G. He also pitched a CG shutout without a walk agaisnt KC, the team with the worst BB/G ratio.

Slowey shut down the Tigers through 6 in May, but his liftetime BvP against the Tigers shows a .800+ OPS. He had a 10 to 4 GB/FB ratio in that game, so I guess the balls just didn't find holes. He only K'd 2.

I think that Detroit, a good home team, will find their hits today against Slowey. Maybe a few more GB find holes. Minny a bad vL and bad road team will be outscored today me thinks.
 
Also it is worth noting that the Tigers are 23rd in K/G, 30th being best. Rogers vs Twins batters is favorable...looks like the lineup will be about in the .230 range with sub .600 OPS in circa 100 ABs.
 
DJ Tanner said:
Does anybody know...Has Maholm pitched well against American league teams


I would loiok myself but

Me and work are having a disagreement, I feel I should be able to look at stats and my It department feels otherwise
Click to expand...

Thats good stuff...I keep trying to convice my IT department that bookmaker.com is about the history of the making and binding of hardcover books...no bites yet.
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
Zito is getting better..........In his last 3 starts, two of them resulted in him giving up one ER in each, including last start vs LAD..............After being shut out in back to back games and Zito appearing to get it together, I think they are worth a shot today............
Click to expand...

Past 3 Zito is 2-1. He first beat up a clev team that can't do anything right and is horrid vs LHP and he only gave up 1er. Then he faced the cubbies and gave up 4er. It's the cubbies and it was expected for him to lose. Then he beat up the LAD giving up 2ER who are horrid vs LHP. No need to keep going. This is Zito's worst year and SF as well. This is a shot in the dark IMO if you take SF.
 
GWarner27 said:
hot and humid is always best for Wakefield, so that would be my guess.

...i really like the DET O, but don't want to play it with all the under/neutral umps floating around because we know Reynolds won't be there cuz he just worked the DET-CLE series
Click to expand...

Much appreciated :shake:
 
Big Herm said:
Got a play in on Detroit as well. Rogers is probably good for 6 or 7 IP giving up anywhere from 2-4 runs. He has been fairly consistent lately and has good lifetime numbers against Morneau, Mauer, and some of the others. He is tougher on lefties for sure and Minny has a few, along with a sub .700 OPS vL.

Slowey has had recent succes against teams like Sd, MIL, and Wash - the 1st, 9th, and 13th ranked teams in K/G. He also pitched a CG shutout without a walk agaisnt KC, the team with the worst BB/G ratio.

Slowey shut down the Tigers through 6 in May, but his liftetime BvP against the Tigers shows a .800+ OPS. He had a 10 to 4 GB/FB ratio in that game, so I guess the balls just didn't find holes. He only K'd 2.

I think that Detroit, a good home team, will find their hits today against Slowey. Maybe a few more GB find holes. Minny a bad vL and bad road team will be outscored today me thinks.
Click to expand...

good luck herm I may go for the over

The over is 7-4 in the series

and 2-0 over when both these guys pitch

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/23/08</TD><TD class=datacell>DET 4 - MIN 9</TD><TD class=datacell>MIN 140</TD><TD class=datacell>O 9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>Armando Galarraga </TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>Kevin Slowey </TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/04/08</TD><TD class=datacell>MIN 7 - DET 6</TD><TD class=datacell>MIN -103</TD><TD class=datacell>O 9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>Boof Bonser </TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>Kenny Rogers </TD><TD class=datacell>6.2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ready to bet it just waiting on the ump
 
I see Tampa hasn't won in Cleveland since 2006. BC has some good info on this game which is making me question my Tampa play. Line is very suspect.
 
I just can't get myself to back a losing team like clev. The line is very enticing but I could only play Tampa or nothing. Will prolly play them small depending on how the day starts off
 
Leaning TB. Sonnanstine has been pretty solid lately and if you look at his game log has had one of the toughest schedules, I would imagine.

He ha faced Texas, CWS, FLA, NYY, and TOR twice. These teams rank 1st, 3rd, 4th,8th, and 14th vs R in OPS. He has faced the CHC and STL once, ranked 2 and 7 OPS VR. That accounts for 12 of his 18 starts. He has a start against Pit and one against BAL (16 and 15 vR OPS). That makes 14 of his 18 starts against top 16 ranked teams in VR OPS, ten against top 10, and 7 vs top 5.

Cleveland is ranked 20th.

Sonny also has not allowed a HR since May 21st, for whatever that is worth.

What's it all mean? Shit if I know, but you would think that pitching against the Indians would be a nice break. I don't like the never seen aspect of TB vs Laffey, but I do like that he has walked at least 3 in the last 4 games and TB is 9th in BB/G. Tampa is not great vL, but they do have a couple of guys who can get it done and having Aybar, Navarro, Longoria(good power vL), and Upton(walks a lot vL) in there helps.
 
5dimes is down all morning so i can't get my afternoon MLB plays in?? they know i fuck em up.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Leaning on the M's myself tuck. The A's are just 1-3 in Smith's last 4 home starts. Also leaning over, as I think if Seattle's in this game they'll be hitting Smith. My concern is Dickeys career stats vs the A's- 25 ip, 37 hits 25 er & an baa of .352! Like the value on the M's, but I may opt for just the over.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be too concerned. Those stats are going back from 2005 - 2003. Dicky has been working well with his knuckeball. I'm curious of the weather in oaktown. Gotta see if i can find it before i'm out in 30 mins.
 
scdoggy said:
Also, at the risk of sounding argumentative - I wouldn't jump on St Lou or the over in Philly too fast. Moyer's numbers aren't nearly as bad as you'd think - in fact they're slightly better than the guy he's pitching against.

Moyer is a guy who never gets respect, and I don't quite get it. He's gone six straight starts without allowing more than three ER. Its his shitbag all or nothing offense that's the problem. They've scored a total of 7 runs in his last four starts. I'll be looking at that UNDER tomorrow.
Click to expand...

First the total itself is a tipoff . Moyer v Looper is 10 when Mulder vs Happ is 10.5 and goes way under ?

Second is Looper struggles in the day(.362 BAA / 6.75 ERA ) , doesnt pitch deep into games away , threw 117 pitches last start more then he is accustomed , has a 4.99 ERA on extended rest , last year he had a 5.65 ERA on extended rest and near 6 ERA on the road. Neither pen inspires me. Moyer should continue to pitch decent IMO .....

So Over 10 and Philly ML for me. Strong play on the over.....BOL:cheers:
 
Was thinking about STL, but not sure. I layed off last night, but think they they might be due today. Moyer has had some control issues lately and is prone to the long ball. As mentioned in previous threads, STL is a very patient team. They also have 32 HRs vL this year, so perhaps a couple of HRs with men on base will carry them. Glaus is the only Card with a HR vs Moyer, but he has 5 of them. Pujols is a lefty masher, though he has not had any success vs Moyer. Ludwick may be a candidate to go deep today. Looper is 3 of 6 with two 2B vL this year himself.

Philly has hit Looper pretty well though, so that makes it tough. Neither of these teams have shown much life in their offenses lately and this is the deciding game of the series.

Eh, I may lay off unless I see something last minute.
 
Wow, Looper's day stats prior to this year for the last 3 years --
109 IP, 1.97 ERA, 12-3. This year has been different, but that is impressive.
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Home</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>5.16</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>52.1</TD><TD align=right>65</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.301</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Away</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3.13</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>54.2</TD><TD align=right>53</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.257</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Day</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>5.50</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>37.2</TD><TD align=right>53</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.342</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Night</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>3.38</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>69.1</TD><TD align=right>65</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>51</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.243</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Also .289 BAA on normal rest comapred to .250 on extended.

At home his best 3 starts are 6.2 inn 3 runs tiwce and 6 inn 2 runs but two of those came vs the Mets who dont hit him not that STL has but he does allow some runs and doesnt pitch deep into games as he went 7 innings once....:shake:
 
Fuck it, talked myself into the Phils ML. Also gonna roll with a small RL/over parlay. Let's rock.
 
My first games are in:

Detroit ML
Over 9 in Detroit
Philly ML
Philly RL/Over Parlay
Under first 5 SF/NYM 4.5 runs

Good luck today gents.
 
I see 10mph winds out to left field in philly. Tempted po touch the over but both teams looked like hell yesterday hitting wise
 
Would not terribly surprise me to see the cards win but making a Small bet on Phillies just as a Days of the Week play.
 
Big Herm said:
Wow, Looper's day stats prior to this year for the last 3 years --
109 IP, 1.97 ERA, 12-3. This year has been different, but that is impressive.
Click to expand...

I wokeup late today . Yes , he once was very sharp in day games and you will see his night splits in those years were the poor ones . This year it flipped for some reason probably circumstance more then anything but @ Philly a team he has struggled with as a reliever off a high pitch count should hopefully make this a tough outing .

Have more on the over then Philly but still a sizeable play for me .

GL:cheers:
 
Under 1st 5 @ Det and then smaller under 9 game.

Lots of rested players , Slowley tough on RH , Twins 2-10 away vs LHSP , Rogers tough at home , etc....

GL and I think I made a boo-boo playing over 8.5 @ SFG but really a trend play . SF like 21-10 over in day games off consecutive shutouts , while Zito 9 day ERA / 370 BAA and 6.55ERA on normal rest compared to 4.10 on extra rest .....Maine about 4.54 in day games and only going like 6 innings was hoping for some late SFG runs to make it like 5-4 or so
 
MIL pisses me off more frequently than not, but gonna play them RL today. That is a team that hits lefties well, has good BvP, and is a really solid home team. It scares me that COL is surging, but Bush has always been better at home and has been really good this year. MIL killed lefties last year and is coming around again this year. Not sure what happened last night, but perhaps they will make up for it this afternoon.

MIL RL
 
I can't get myself to bet the cubbies with Lilly. Esp when I won with them Yesterday at the same price with Zambrano. Cubbies obviously the better team. The opposing team has beaten each pitcher 4 out of 5 times recently. Very tough call here I beleive
 
Anyone thinking about the Under 9.5 @ Milwaukee ?

Bush in 2008 :

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Home</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2.87</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>53.1</TD><TD align=right>44</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>28</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.222</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Away</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>6.95</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>45.1</TD><TD align=right>50</TD><TD align=right>37</TD><TD align=right>35</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>25</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.276</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Day</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3.54</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>20.1</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.167</TD></TR><TR class=bg4 align=left><TD>Category</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>G</TD><TD>GS</TD><TD>CG</TD><TD>SHO</TD><TD>SV</TD><TD>SVO</TD><TD>INN</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD>HBP</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>IBB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>CS</TD><TD>PK</TD><TD>BK</TD><TD>WP</TD><TD>AVG</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Night</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>5.06</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>78.1</TD><TD align=right>82</TD><TD align=right>48</TD><TD align=right>44</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>42</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.267</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3.13</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>46.0</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.209</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>5.23</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>41.1</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.287</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Last 7 Appearances</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3.20</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>45.0</TD><TD align=right>38</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.222</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

DeLaRosa in 2008 :

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3.68</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>29.1</TD><TD align=right>25</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>29</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>.225</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>8.00</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>18.0</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.324</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

In 07 Day-Night splits :

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Day</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>3.38</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>34.2</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.264</TD></TR><TR class=bg4 align=left><TD>Category</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>G</TD><TD>GS</TD><TD>CG</TD><TD>SHO</TD><TD>SV</TD><TD>SVO</TD><TD>INN</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD>HBP</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>IBB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>CS</TD><TD>PK</TD><TD>BK</TD><TD>WP</TD><TD>AVG</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Night</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>6.70</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>95.1</TD><TD align=right>126</TD><TD align=right>74</TD><TD align=right>71</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>55</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.317</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Day in 2008 only 1 start 1 relief
7.1inn 6 h 2 r 2bb 8 k

2008 Away BAA 266 / RHB 273 (LHB 321)

COL 18-8 UNDER in Day games
MILW 17-17 o/u in day games
Milw 15-12 UNDER vs LHSP
Milw 16-10 UNDER home 9 or 9.5 totals (COL 11-11 away in this spot)

Rusch went 6 innings 1 run
Redman went 5 innings allowing 4 runs but sucked the 1st 3 batters of the game couple hits and 3 run HR before an out so he settled down .

Thinking 1st 5 inn under and maybe game under but hate the pens.:cheers:
 
TheSportsThing said:
I can't get myself to bet the cubbies with Lilly. Esp when I won with them Yesterday at the same price with Zambrano. Cubbies obviously the better team. The opposing team has beaten each pitcher 4 out of 5 times recently. Very tough call here I beleive
Click to expand...

Arroyo does have a good history @ Wrigley for the most part and is the type of SP to give such a RH heavy lineup trouble because he throws 3 quarters fastball / slider ...Lilly a flyball pitcher hurt by the wind blowing out and poor history vs Reds if I recall. Just starting to look at this one. :cheers:
 
Also COL 242 in day games with 4 runs per and pitching is better at 4.8 runs per ( 5.3 runs all season and 5.4 runs away all season so 1/2 run drop)

MILW 5.4 runs 273 avg and allow 4.4

So how bout MILW 5 COL 4 ???
 
HereWeGo said:
On the over 11 @ Wrigley SN...
Click to expand...


Yeah played it already .

Arroyo in

Day 6.16 ERA /.329 BAA

Extended rest
1-4 in 5 starts 11.28 ERA /.394 BAA

Away 7.17 ERA / .346 BAA

This should be a high scoring affair which kinda makes it tough to lay -180 when its tough to figure out who can score most today . Arroyo little better prior history then Lilly vs opponent .

Last year Arroyo lost 7-6 with 10.5 total @ Wrigley and Lilly losy 11-10 at home with a 10 total ....:cheers:BOL
 
I'm hoping for a 6 or 7-3 type game from CHI. Cincy's bats have been pretty cold lately. .222 BA last 7 with 3.5 RPG. Lilly has been solid and always surprises me. He has about 7 good performances in a row by my standards. His achilles heel is the longball, and he has only given up 5 in 150ish ABs vs Reds batters.
 
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