Thursday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
May 20 Thu 2021

12:35 PM
901San Francisco GiantsJ. Cueto -R+1½
-165		+125O 8½
-105
902Cincinnati RedsT. Mahle -R+1 Markets-1½
+145		-135U 8½
-115
2:05 PM
913New York YankeesD. German -R-1½
+115		-131O 8½
-110
914Texas RangersD. Dunning -R+1 Markets+1½
-135		+121U 8½
-110
2:20 PM
903Washington NationalsJ. Ross -R+108
904Chicago CubsT. Williams -R+1 Markets-118
3:37 PM
915Houston AstrosL. Garcia -R-1½
+140		-108O 8½
-120
916Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L+1 Markets+1½
-160		-102U 8½
+100
7:05 PM
905Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R+1½
-195		+110O 8
+100
906Philadelphia PhilliesV. Velasquez -R+1 Markets-1½
+170		-120U 8
-120
7:20 PM
907Pittsburgh PiratesW. Crowe -R+1½
-120		+170O 8½
-112
908Atlanta BravesD. Smyly -L-1½
+100		-185U 8½
-108
7:37 PM
921Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R+1½
-155		+122O 10
-105
922Toronto Blue JaysS. Matz -L+1 Markets-1½
+135		-132U 10
-115
 
first wave, ATL is starting to look like a team we should fade everyday until they figure out their bullpen. PIT is not a team i want to back, but sheesh

May 20cueto
rossJ
alcantara
crowe
KREMER
german
garciaL
pivetta
 
not sure Cueto has been good enough since returning from the IL to back here, but man that's a big price on CIN who have clearly shown they can't sustain it

Velasquez as a favorite sets alarm bells off

ATL keeps climbing cuz apparently nobody watches them

German is really cheap for one of those double no-hitters

Big ask for Irvin today to get OAK back on track and he will have to deal with a ton of R, which worries me. Garcia has been very good even if not really completing 6

Cobb very cheap after LAA was favored the entire series vs CLE and MIN starts Thorpe. Less innings certainly helps MIN SP though their bullpen is getting better and it may even benefit LAA to require them to cover less outs. Wonder which game Ohtani plays, an important bat though now that Pujols is gone there's no hole in the middle of the lineup thankfully.

Along the same lines, don't hate the idea of fading Berrios but Canning needs to have breaking stuff since throwing high fastballs only is not enough to get by the MIN power
 
Vince -120 eh, Banks would be proud I would consider a F5 on fish there
 
gsro said:
Vince -120 eh, Banks would be proud I would consider a F5 on fish there
Click to expand...

problem is Alcantara still seems like a guy who uses his fastball too much (like Pablo Lopez) and is always going to have a bad inning before he leaves in the 7th. PHI can handle fastballs, they have enough threats, and MIA offense is still so weak. They clearly can win games 3-1 but that's hard to do especially with the troubles trying to get leads to Yimi
 
GWarner27 said:
problem is Alcantara still seems like a guy who uses his fastball too much (like Pablo Lopez) and is always going to have a bad inning before he leaves in the 7th. PHI can handle fastballs, they have enough threats, and MIA offense is still so weak. They clearly can win games 3-1 but that's hard to do especially with the troubles trying to get leads to Yimi
Click to expand...
my concern with the fish is their BP; no JT hurt philly last night as Knapp came up twice with the chance to tie or take the lead and per the philly bats faltered. Then that bullpen almost gave it all back where the last out was about 3 rotations away from a homerun. Funny you bring up his fastball cause I thought I noticed this too, but he's evenly distributed between his changeup, 4 seamer and sinker. Game 1 was philly scoring 7 in the bottom of the 7th to win the game 8-3 which is skewed obviously and the not hitting with RISP. Have to check reports but no JT and is Didi good to go?
 
GWarner27 said:
what do you expect today? Been fading since the start to the season and i'm starting to think we've seen this all before with him
Click to expand...
I think we've seen a normalization in his pitching compared to last year; I'll give Pete Walker some credit, he's done a helluva job on both Matz and Ray, probably more the latter than the former. Wind is blowing in pretty good in from left, which I think creates a small jetstream to right in that band box... If his sinker/fb control is on that sets up his slider really well which he's used more this year. He's had one game with Wegner and has been successful (last line), we'll see if that continues tonight, but it all comes down to his sinker/fb command. He's also been pretty consistent between lefties and righties this year and so if you can neutralize Devers that helps too. With all the good comes some bad, Boston guys who have seen him have prtty much raked. Expecting 5-6 from him hopefully as he's gone atleast 5 in all but one of his starts


1621525105784.png
 
yeah he hasn't gotten through 6 since that good stretch to start the season, wouldn't expect it again here. That gives me some questions about the last three innings as i don't love the TOR bullpen, but Matz has always lived or died on fastball command and that's why he's never reached the heights we thought he would.

Pivetta is hard to call on the other side, too, but that's based on his performance in PHI. This year he's been great, so not sure i should prioritize his past over his present. Only Teoscar, Gurriel and Jansen have seen him, if he has control then i like his chances better especially with his bullpen
 
gsro said:
my concern with the fish is their BP; no JT hurt philly last night as Knapp came up twice with the chance to tie or take the lead and per the philly bats faltered. Then that bullpen almost gave it all back where the last out was about 3 rotations away from a homerun. Funny you bring up his fastball cause I thought I noticed this too, but he's evenly distributed between his changeup, 4 seamer and sinker. Game 1 was philly scoring 7 in the bottom of the 7th to win the game 8-3 which is skewed obviously and the not hitting with RISP. Have to check reports but no JT and is Didi good to go?
Click to expand...

i guess it's easy to say fastball since he has two of them lol

JT may deserve to be on Trout-level since he's such an important bat coupled with defense and the drop-off to Knapp
 
wow Cueto has owned CIN and i can not believe i'm seeing Stephenson batting 3rd. That dude can't hit a thing

Cueto may not offer too much length, 5 is probably a reasonable expectation unless he's dealing, but Littell to McGee to Rogers looks like it's in play. Wisler or Baragar get the 6th? Maybe Cueto finishes it?

Don't love not seeing Posey but only priced at 44% to win this and Mahle has never been able to take the step to be a guy worthy of trust
 
GWarner27 said:
i guess it's easy to say fastball since he has two of them lol

JT may deserve to be on Trout-level since he's such an important bat coupled with defense and the drop-off to Knapp
Click to expand...
yup, what JT does for that lineup makes life on Bryce easier as well. Didi would have similar effects I would say just not to the level of JT. You're not wrong though, if we group all types of FB's together it is like 50% FB for Alcantara, but I keep them separate
 
i'm not sure how much i'll use it, but i'd like to incorporate things to understand why pitchers are performing differently than i expect
 
The sheer shock of twitter and how the reds pitching sucks is shocking to me in itself. Ppl really bought Wade Miley after no hitting trash?
 
so TWill hasn't been able to get a 16th out in six straight starts, Ross off a bad start but bounced back from the last one he got tattooed with 6ip 1r @ NYM
 
Inspekdah said:
Yanks lineup is awful today. Sanchez in. No Judge no Stanton. Odor in the 4 again lol
Click to expand...
Someone on twitter said that odor is legit and he’s touting picks pretty popular on twitter too, gambling twitter makes me sad sometimes
 
GWarner27 said:
so TWill hasn't been able to get a 16th out in six straight starts, Ross off a bad start but bounced back from the last one he got tattooed with 6ip 1r @ NYM
Click to expand...
Don’t think the wind will do any favors for both pitchers today there
 
gsro said:
Someone on twitter said that odor is legit and he’s touting picks pretty popular on twitter too, gambling twitter makes me sad sometimes
Click to expand...
Odor did beat me twice this year while he was hitting .105

add that to .114 Sano last weekend and i guess i'd rather face trout
 
GWarner27 said:
Odor did beat me twice this year while he was hitting .105

add that to .114 Sano last weekend and i guess i'd rather face trout
Click to expand...
This user has the Yankees on those “clutch” hits by odor followed by a “batting average doesn’t tell ylu how good someone is”
 
no Realmuto as predicted, I like Herrera in the 2-slot but not that scared of him or Cutch so really it's about Alcantara handling Harper and HR-only Hoskins then Miller and Bohm less dangerous but can do some damage.

Three straight good starts by Velasquez in tough parks, not sure I can forget who he is but he's always had the stuff. His problem was harnessing it

PHI bullpen looks fresh, same for MIA. Alcantara getting blasted @ LAD last start has hurt his numbers, first time getting blasted all season so i think we can look past it. Sandy's on his worst 5 days rest, though his best has been on 6 and only going 1.1 makes me think that might mean his arm is pretty fresh.

Batting last is nice for PHI and they have a better lineup even without Realmuto. Think the bullpen is more likely to get outs, too, so really would only be backing Miami cuz of Sandy so that's probably a skip
 
From Action Network:

Steven Matz is having a pretty good start to his career in Toronto, but his xERA and xFIP are his lowest since 2018. His sinker and changeup have just been average, as both pitches are allowing a xwOBA over .310. He’ll be facing a Red Sox lineup that has been crushing left-handed pitching this season. Boston is seventh in MLB with a .335 wOBA and 112 wRC+. The Red Sox also have the third-lowest K% and have scored the fourth-most runs against lefties, so Matz has a difficult matchup tonight.
 
gsro said:
ya went into my meeting seeing 4-2 loaded bases against clay came back and nada. Also trevor williams not understanding base running made me sad
Click to expand...

yeah that was bizarre, kept WSH in the game though i understand not running your SP into an out at home
 
Ryno14 said:
I haven’t been on here a ton lately but we still have no clue what happened to him?
Click to expand...
I honestly hope he’s okay, he joked about mixing some pills and booze and being responsible about it but..
 
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