The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 02 Lines & Market Play

1/2 Unit: LSU -2.5 @ MSST (-115)

***I should note that some of these plays are based just as much on the week #1 performances as they are on my lines. I'm anticipating lines moves on these.
 
1/2 Unit: NMSU -5.5 vs GAST

No line value using last year's numbers, but NMSU was able to move the ball in the first half against Florida (before failing to get even a single first down in the 2nd half, lol), while GAST struggled and lost at home to FBS newcomer Charlotte.
 
1/2 Unit: UTSA +22.5 vs KSU

Don't be too enamored by KSU's 35-0 shutout win of South Dakota. They only outgained SD 332-266. KSU starting QB Ertz was injured early and is doubtful for this game. UTSA showed they came ready to ball this year against Arizona.
 
That's it for now.

Last years #s really like USU +10.5 @ UTAH, but the Aggies were pretty terrible and lucky to win against Southern Utah, so gonna' pass on that one. It was a look ahead game for USU for sure, but sheesh.

Also last year's #s really like SYR -5.5 vs. WAKE, but SYR lost QB Hunt for the year already, and their offense is pretty bad when he's not playing, so going to pass on that one as well.
 
Love to see you ready to fire on these totals, going to be a few weeks before I have enough data to get involved on them. Good luck!
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Tulsa @ New Mexico Over 69.5

Tulsa played one of the fastest games in the history of football last Saturday, I believe, averaging a mere 16.8 seconds per play. That is so insanely fast. Any time a team even breaks 20 seconds per play that's really fast. On top of that, they averaged over 20 yards per completion! (and 12+ yards per pass). They weren't just passing, either, they ran it 51 times versus 34 passes, which adds to the astonishment even more. Defensively, Tulsa they let FAU run for 300 yards. Last year FAU had my 95th ranked run offense, New Mexico 21st (and that's heavily rescored -- on pure stats they're top 10). You think New Mexico's gonna' be able to run it next week? Sure, New Mexico is a slow plays per second team, but with as many big run plays and first downs as they'll be getting, the clock will be stopping a fair enough amount of time. New Mexico held Miss. Valley Delta to almost no offense last week. That's nice, but they are a terrible team.
 
Thanks, cc. I'm hoping so, but not sure. The number is already on the low side, and with UTSA having that high-scoring affair versus the Scooby-less Wildcats last week it makes me think there won't be any square $ on the Under this week. I'm thinking KSU will be an Under til they show otherwise team.
 
I concur. I think Zona was a little unprepared to lose Scooby and that contributed to their defensive woes. New QB in for Kstate and Snyder is smart enough to reduce plays at this point or risk injury and a real problem as the season progresses. UTSA will need a second week to prove that offensive performance was real, imo.

Get that cash, TSC
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: MINN @ CSU Over 54

The Gophers played a full 7 seconds faster per play in the season opener against TCU than their average tpp of last year. With no new coaches I'm not sure where that came from, I only hope it continues for at least this game, lol. Even though I project CSU to have more negative regression in the passing game than any other team in FBS this year I'm still showing a ton of value on the Over when it's all crunched. CSU did have a good game offensively against their week #1 cupcake, and also played at a fast pace.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Rutgers - 2 vs Washington State

WSU of course lost to Portland State last week. Their run game is still pretty weak and QB Falk is no threat to run. Their passing game was below average versus an average FCS defense.
The Cougar's run defense let Portland State run at a pretty good clip, which is all Portland State really does. Rutgers, on the other hand, ran roughshod over Norfolk State, who had the second best defense in the FCS last year. Norfolk State was able to pass it some against Rutgers, but they ended up with negative 3 rushing yards. After looking more closely at last week's games with these two I'm not quite as keen on the Under, though it has picked up a point of line value, and is worth riding out if you've made the play. I am pretty keen on Rutgers in this spot, though. WSU after a depressing week makes the dreaded cross country trip to play a team with which they have no history, and their passing game looks to definitely be below last year's level, and Falk got dinged up in the game to boot. I don't see any angles that favor WSU at all here. Plus the PAC12 as I've been saying since last year is over rated - hah! lol
 
Thx, Play2. Don't I know you from the old forum hood back in the day? lol

Thx, Indy.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: Marshall -3 @ Ohio (-115)

Looking at Marshall's first game their offensive results ended up landing pretty close to the negative regression I projected for them. The running regression was right on, though the passing game was not quite as good. But then again, being Purdue it was one of the best pass defenses they'll face on the schedule this year, so the result is not that far out of expectation at all. What does this mean? It means I can trust my stats on them offensively this game. The defensive regression for Marshall + Purdue's offensive projected progress came out pretty spot on, as well. Just because Marshall had two pick 6s doesn't mean they didn't deserve to win. Purdue did have 57 more total yards in the game, but that's because they ran 30 more plays on offense than Marshall did. Marshall had a higher ypp and ypc average, and the difference was especially advantageous in the rushing yards per carry. When it's all said and done, the team with both the higher ypp and ypc is going to get the win a majority of the time.

As for Ohio, I projected a fairly easy win over Idaho, so no surprise there.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: Iowa -3.5 @ Iowa State

Iowa had an okay game eating their week #1 cupcake, Illinois State. Iowa State played a tougher, chewier cupcake in Northern Iowa (a team that threatens to choke FBS schools to death on occasion, such is it's toughness). ISU won 31-7, but a quick look at the box score shows that the two teams were almost identical in total yardage. ISU was much better in the passing game, while Northern Iowa did better in the running game. Color me not that impressed, I'll take the Hawkeyes, in spite of the Cyclones history of playing them tougher than they should.
 
The Ohio State line just reopened at -40 with an O/U of 59.5. As high as those are, I'm still showing value on the Buckeyes and Over.

I'm gonna drop a 1/2 unit on each, lol. Calling for a 52-10 final score.
 
Here are my week #2 lines:

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The lines take longer than normal to get ready these first few weeks, because I look at every game played against an FCS opponent and make manual adjustments I feel appropriate given the performance in the game. I do this because I only log box scores of games played between FBS teams. I also have made some manual adjustments if a team was really good or bad at something in week #1.


The EMU line has gone down because of an injury to QB Bell, whose status is "?" still. The Utah line has gone up because the USU offense was pathetic against FCS Southern Utah. The Missouri line has come down because RB Hansbrough will miss this game again, and they didn't run well without him last week.
 
I bought the 1/2 units on UTSA & MSST early anticipating the line moves, which I got, and now I'm going to buy back and go for the middle, because my lines actually show the value on their opponents at current prices. If you got those early numbers on these two will probably do fine to just sit on them, because KSU might be more regressed offensively and UTSA more progressed offensively than pre-season projections have them, and MSST might be more regressed than my pre-season projections had them. The Bulldogs certainly didn't look that sharp against USM last week. So taking KSU -17 and MSST +4.5 for a 1/2 unit each. I know it's early in the season, but that LSU @ MSST game could be really telling for both squads (especially MSST).
 
Tennessee suspends starting DT Danny O'Brien for this week's game against Oklahoma. Tennessee already suffering on defense.

Adding for 1/2Unit: Oklahoma -1 @ TENN
 
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