THE PLAYERS discussion thread

DaddyMcIlhon

DaddyMcIlhon

Pretty much a regular
There’s some big numbers out there on some big names. Great field as always. Lots of rain and wind in the forecast. Let’s talk it through!

Already bet:
Matsuyama 30-1
Berger 35-1
DJ 35-1
Im 40-1
Brooks 40-1

DJ was just an auto bet at that number. I’ve even seen some books with 40+. Probably throwing money away. My biggest play is Berger. I like him for the bounce back. Matsu makes sense to me if it’s gonna be soft. He played great on Sunday last week and pretty decent overall.

What is everyone else on? Who’s got the inside info?
 
Lot of variation on the favs at the US sports books. Mori the fav on some but others can get 16-1. I think that’s decent value. Thomas also 10-1 some places and 15-1 others.
 
Weather looks pretty ugly this week so I plan to tread lightly. Just playing one full tournament matchup:

Hoge-109 vs Bubba Watson: pure fade play here. I recall bubba hating to play in rain. Hive has been playing well of late and he’s a grinder.
 
This Pete Dye-designed layout brings water into play on 17 of the 18 holes and features numerous doglegs that limit a bomber's advantage off the tee. Avoiding the water, and the crooked numbers that come with it, are keys to success this week. Driving accuracy is a common denominator when looking at past leaderboards for this event, as it is at other Pete Dye tracks like Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands, and Stadium West, but this event moving from May to March (which happened in 2019) throws a wet blanket on that narrative a bit, in my opinion. Not only are the greens softer at this time of year, but the grabby nature of bermudagrass rough is mitigated a skosh in March due to the overseeding necessary at this time of year. Missing the fairway or green is never ideal, but it's less penial than it used to be because the unpredictable nature of the lie caused by the bermudagrass has decreased with the overseeding that March brings to a Florida golf course.
As we saw last year with Justin Thomas, who barely made the cut on Friday and then stormed the leaderboard on Saturday and Sunday, low rounds can be had here. Knowing when and where to be aggressive for scoring opportunities goes a long way. You also have to be comfortable eating your vegetables on this course, accepting that par is a good score on most holes, and moving along.​
 


-Ryan Noonan

And then there was content!​

Slowly, but surely and with great enthusiasm. Launched two new shows this week, Andy will run through the entire course Wednesday afternoon, and next week will bring a very fun Wednesday evening roundtable that we think will be a great way to get in your last minute questions on betting, DFS, one and done, Prize Picks, Underdog or however you’re gambling on golf this week.
Again, every show and article is 100% free and available on BetspertsGolf.com, with a heavy dose of written content being published Wednesday throughout the day.
Just a sampling of what to look forward to this week:
  • Andy, Ron & Noonan’s betting cards for the week
  • Ron’s First Round Leader model and picks
  • Several DFS articles from the team
  • A last look at weather/waves and first round matchups
  • PrizePicks value plays and strategy
  • Daily matchup picks for each round throughout the week (weather willing!)
 
SG: Approach (30%), Good Drives Gained (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (17.5 %), SG: Ball-striking (17.5%) and SG: Par 5 (15%).

  1. Jon Rahm (+1400)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2500)
  3. Hideki Maysuyama (+2800)
  4. Daniel Berger (+3500)
  5. Justin Thomas (+1400)
  6. Viktor Hovland (+2000)
  7. Will Zalatoris (+4500)
  8. Russell Henley (+8000)
  9. Paul Casey (+7000)
  10. Tom Hoge (+15000)
 
Yeah this has weather/Monday finish written all over it. Will tackle a couple top 10s maybe, not betting rounds until we know the weather day of

.25* each

Im +3500
Will Z +4000
Scott +4500
Casey +6600
 
I like Koepka this week. Took him (EV) against Zalatoris, thinking about adding to it. Also on:

Morikawa +125 vs Rahm
Hovland -120 vs Cantlay
Scott -105 vs Hatton
 
chipnotized said:
This Pete Dye-designed layout brings water into play on 17 of the 18 holes and features numerous doglegs that limit a bomber's advantage off the tee. Avoiding the water, and the crooked numbers that come with it, are keys to success this week. Driving accuracy is a common denominator when looking at past leaderboards for this event, as it is at other Pete Dye tracks like Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands, and Stadium West, but this event moving from May to March (which happened in 2019) throws a wet blanket on that narrative a bit, in my opinion. Not only are the greens softer at this time of year, but the grabby nature of bermudagrass rough is mitigated a skosh in March due to the overseeding necessary at this time of year. Missing the fairway or green is never ideal, but it's less penial than it used to be because the unpredictable nature of the lie caused by the bermudagrass has decreased with the overseeding that March brings to a Florida golf course.
As we saw last year with Justin Thomas, who barely made the cut on Friday and then stormed the leaderboard on Saturday and Sunday, low rounds can be had here. Knowing when and where to be aggressive for scoring opportunities goes a long way. You also have to be comfortable eating your vegetables on this course, accepting that par is a good score on most holes, and moving along.​
Click to expand...

Missing the fairway is “less penial?” Huh?
 
If the weather is going to be as bad as it’s been forecast, and being in the fairway will be most ideal, Kevin Kisner is worth a look this week. He leads the PGA in driving accuracy.
 
Pre-tourney card:

FRL
Speith +5000 (0.25u)

Tourney Groups

Deki +370 (1u) over Cantlay/Scheffler/Schauffele/DJ

Brooks +370 (1u) over Smith/Berger/Fitzpatrick/Lowry

To MIss the Cut

Scheffler +250 (1u)

Xander +240 (1u)

Hovland +270 (1u)

Si Woo Kim +140 (1u)


Swing it easy fellas.
 
I'm on Koepka, Zalatoris, Kim for top 10, top 5 and W
Will look to add some each day and also looking at weather
 
Looking forward to a good tourney this week. One, day 1, 3 ball play.

Lowry +110 over Wolff, Glover

GL gents-
 
Some solid capping and discussions going down in the CBB forum. Picked up many units over there, hoping to roll into more, over here.

DJ 1st round leader, live +550 for 1 unit
Niemann +190 top 10, 2 units
Niemann-120 top 20, 2 units
 
What a clusterfuck. May be creating some value down the leaderboard...that's what I'm telling myself.
Must be a tough row to hoe booking prices on this.
What do you do with guys that haven't played a hole in a couple days, but scored the members bounce of missing out on the worst of the conditions?

Sprinkles (0.25u each)

Noren 35-1
Conners 40-1
Casey 60-1
Wise 70-1
Ghim 75-1
Pendrith 80-1
 
chipnotized said:
What a clusterfuck. May be creating some value down the leaderboard...that's what I'm telling myself.
Must be a tough row to hoe booking prices on this.
What do you do with guys that haven't played a hole in a couple days, but scored the members bounce of missing out on the worst of the conditions?

Sprinkles (0.25u each)

Noren 35-1
Conners 40-1
Casey 60-1
Wise 70-1
Ghim 75-1
Pendrith 80-1
Click to expand...
Tough call on how to proceed. These tourneys with weather issues are really hard to figure out. How does Bubba shoot 68? Unbelievable…

Tomorrow these guys will be playing in upper 30’s temperatures with a 12-22 mph wind… I have zero expectations with how the players will handle the conditions tomorrow.
 
gps_3 said:
I like Koepka this week. Took him (EV) against Zalatoris, thinking about adding to it. Also on:

Morikawa +125 vs Rahm
Hovland -120 vs Cantlay
Scott -105 vs Hatton
Click to expand...
Just really solid calls here. Thank you Victor
 
Just a PrizePicks 2-teamer of Hoge and Fleetwood to both be under par in the final round.

I hope to get a few more wagers in when they realign the groups after the 3rd round is finished, but it'll be tricky.
 
Guess they said it had been done 9 times

Casey just getting no breaks, some self-inflicted but he's not getting any bounces
 
Congrats to Camron and @PaintCrew FTW. Dropped a total of 8 units, posted and unposted. Really need to assess my love for this game, which hasn’t resulted in won bets. Luckily the boys in the CBB forum still allowed for a profitable week.
 
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