The 142nd Kentucky Derby - May 7, 2016

The way the track is playing the 5 and 6 will be on lead and tire. What makes this race tricky is that with the exception of the 10 and 11 all other horses are cutting back from two turn triple crown preps to this one turn mile. This race hits them both square in the eyes. The 2 and 12 look interesting as well.
Spot on. 11 got hit between the eyes
 
6 had 2 one turn mile wire wins at Gulfstream, but those were 46 and 47&1 paces. 44 flat today, wow, thought he would be cooked.
 
Outwork, Exaggerator and Nyquist all won on off-tracks in their final preps. Raining pretty hard now. This could really make it a chaotic race.
 
I'm playing Trojan Nation. And I don't want any "condom-nation" for that play.

Seriously, I am going to play him. Got the blessing from my horse guy.
 
I used to post Mr. X's write-ups once in a while, but I'm on the phone. His win bet is Trojan Nation, and his "most likely" winner is Mor Spirit. (Don't ask me the difference.) He always tries to beat the chalk in the Derby on the win bet. He's had a nice decade. His "most likely" winner is on a 3-year streak, but of course, so is the chalk.
 
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