The 142nd Kentucky Derby - May 7, 2016

Mr. X isn't anonymous, he loves attention. Horse racing is roughly 101% of his life. He's on Twitter @justindew

(He doesn't know me as tioyerbartender, in case you introduce yourself.)
 
I don't have a real strong opinion in the Derby, for a top choice I keep coming back to #9 Destin, the layoff doesn't concern me that much it's more him coming out of that weird Tampa track for his preps, which can be a tiring surface and I think one of the reasons they decided to go with the extra time between races. Think he has the tactical speed to work out a trip regardless of the how hot the pace is. With #20 Danzig Candy drawing way outside I think there's a chance of a fairly slow pace which would hurt the rest of the horses I like best, #19 Brodys Cause, #6 My Man Sam, #17 Mor Spirit. #13 Nyquist istough and deserving favorite just can't key a horse at 2-1 in this field and have to try to beat for the top spot. #11 Exaggerator is one I have questions about, took advantage of a ridiculously fast pace in the slop in the Santa Anita, will use defensively underneath.

Will use mostly #9 and #6 on top, with the others I mentioned underneath, will play a tri with #13,#11 on top. The only real tosses I have are #1, 7, 8
 
Building most Tri/Super tickets with 11 or 13 on top. Saver exacta with 15 and 20 on top.
 
5/11/17 EXB
6/11/17 EXB
11/13/17 EXB

So wide open it's just hard to get going with this thing
 
This is what I ended up on... Admittedly I know jack.

$80 Nyquist/Mor Spirit win +210
$50 Mor Spirt over My Man Sam -120
$50 Mor Spirit win +1400
$30 Trojan Nation over Suddenbreakingnews +160
$10 Trojan Nation win +7000
$10 Troan Nation top 3 +1400

Feel like riding with tip for the smaller ones.
 
Interesting that TN is only +160 over Suddenbreakingnews considering how many seemed to have loved that 2 horse the last couple days that I talked to. GL Fondu
 
From twitter drf

NOT expected: Mor Spirit got very hot when he got to frontside, bucking and rearing.
#KyDerby
 
I took Exaggerator over Destin -151, and My Man Sam -131 over Brody's Cause.
 
GL tim, Exaggerator has been the one I've liked all along for better or worse
 
Of course the texts are coming in and starting to look at going next year, it's been on the to do list for a bunch of years
 
Mr X says dismiss the 1 at your own peril, primed for a big effort and you don't want to let the son of Storm Strong beat you. 4th highest Beyer in the field. I'm paraphrasing his write-up.
 
I've been to a few, but none since Go For Gin in the hardest constant rain I've ever had to spend 6 or 7 hours in.
 
Well tip Louisville is just a tad farther than a drunken bike ride away for me, takes some effort anyway
 
Maybe they got hacked and all the money is gone!
Like a 2016 Beverly Hills Cop track robbery!
 
Beautiful run by Nyquist and nice close by Exaggerator

Who'd a thunk it in this field that it would be chalk
 
Hate to say it but unless it's an off track the race may no longer be worth the effort it takes. The rigid prep system is defining the best horses more clearly than ever. And that is killing the return.
 
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