The 142nd Kentucky Derby - May 7, 2016

Who benefited from the post draw last night?
who likes where they are and who has to change their strategy now?
 
Lani got the 8th which is a # my wife plays no matter what.
She still reminds me of her #8 Barbaro win way back.....
 
Anyone know of or running any cool Derby games this weekend?
We do a blind draw for post #s and you get the horse for the post.
 
I still like My Man Sam. There will be enough early speed and Irad could be a bit more agressive early to get better position.
 
The ones I'm interested in the Oaks are: 1,3,8,13,14 and I like #3 the best...2 for 2 at the distance, still seems to be improving and she was great in the Gazelle
 
Thanks play. I need to figure out who to play in the Oaks for the Daily Double.
I drew #20 in our blind draw at work today for the Derby.
Go Danzig Candy
 
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Urgh I've become pretty sold on using 11,13,15,17 and all along figured this was the year I'd try a bomber...still not locked in by any means but that's my initial thought and will probably waste a day tomorrow talking myself out of all of it. Exaggerator my favorite.
 
Yeah I keep gravitating towards the Cal horses, 11, 13 and 17, along with the top two from the Blue Grass, 6 and 19. Cal horses have been strong the last few years and this year is no exception. Cupid shipped to Oaklawn and won the Rebel before getting injured which excused his Ark Derby race. Then Nyquist shipped to Florida and put a whipping on former Derby favorite Mohaymen which I don’t think he’s recovered from yet. And then a maiden, Trojan Nation, goes to New York and almost steals the Wood. Meanwhile the trio that stayed in Cali (Danzig Candy being the third) have put up sheet figures of 0.3, 1 and 1 which put each of them in the top 5 for this field.

The LA horses have graded out as too slow. Which leaves the Blue Grass, who’s top two have put up respectable numbers and have not yet been proven to be behind the California crew.
I have no problem with Outwork as a play, as he has a lot of positives:

  1. Johnny V is as good a big race jockey as there is.
  2. His Wood race has an Oxbow factor to it. Remember Oxbow? He was the only horse that chased the burner pace set by Palace Malice that didn’t collapse, then parlayed the ultra-fitness out of that race to win the Preakness at a price. Outwork figures to have gotten a lot out of that race, and despite the slow time the sheets guys loved it, giving it a solid 1.2.
  3. By all accounts his workouts at Churchill back up the fitness claim, he has arguably trained the best of any horse in the race. And as I said a while back, the Derby is as much about fitness as anything.

Danzig Candy would be a good choice too, but that 20 hole is going to force him to go extra hard early to clear this field, and Johnny is going to make him be wide for as long as possible running inside of him.

For the Oaks today I like 3, 8, 11, 12 and 13 and agree with Play on Lewis Bay (3) as the best option. I’ll box them in a $30 tri and use them in some degree in the various multi’s.
For the Woodford Reserve tomorrow the two Chad Browns, Slumber (6) and Big Blue Kitten (12) have the clear class edge, and Divisidero (8) and Tourist (10) are the sharp horses. Throw in World Approval (11) at a price as well.

If you’re inclined to play the late pick 4 today ending in the Oaks do yourself a favor and play the pick 5 instead starting in the 7[SUP]th[/SUP]. Carina Mia is a single in that race so for the same cost you’ll boost your potential payout at least 50%.
 
Thanks Gandolf. Will you be playing individual races today as well? Last year I built up a really nice bankroll on Friday so that I could lose it all on Saturday.
 
Here's what I did with Oaks/Derby doubles, two tickets...

Oaks: #1,3,8,13,14
Derby: #6

and

Oaks: #3
Derby: #6,11,13,17,19

GLTA this weekend :cheers3:
 
Dollaz said:
Thanks Gandolf. Will you be playing individual races today as well? Last year I built up a really nice bankroll on Friday so that I could lose it all on Saturday.
Click to expand...

Stuck at work today so just the tri and a pick 5 ticket: 5/1-2-6-11/1-4-5/1-3-6-10/3-8-11

Good luck with your plays!
 
Gandolf said:
Stuck at work today so just the tri and a pick 5 ticket: 5/1-2-6-11/1-4-5/1-3-6-10/3-8-11

Good luck with your plays!
Click to expand...

Tri paid $111 for the 50 cent denomination so pretty much break even on the day. On to Saturday.
 
Headed to my first ever Derby party tomorrow and all I can say to guys is wow and thank you as this will be my first time playing the horses, so this thread has been a huge help to me already. Thank you Thank you and Thank you!
 
Newbie question, but hey we were all newbies at one point right?

I have been doing a ton of reading and have the field narrowed down, but not sure how I should play things on Saturday (will be playing at BOL and also at the party).

Online, should I stick to Superfecta and Trifecta Box or should I focus on Across the Board? Which of these would be the best options if I do multiple plays? Here is how I currently see things playing out (Top 11 only as I think there will be a clear line of demarcation between top 11 and remainder of field) based on my limited knowledge:
17, 13, 14, 11, 3, 9, 6, 19, 15, 5, 20

As far as the party goes, they are going to be focused on win, place, show action, so how should I play that?

Thanks in advance for anyone who responds!
 
A quick look at today's race results on dirt in terms of racing position:

Race 1 (field of 8) - 7f wire win from 1/2 favorite
Race 2 (8) - 6 1/2f, 4/5 favorite leads at 2nd call and wins
Race 3 (8) - 1M, 2/1 winner is 3rd, 1 length out at 2nd call
Race 4 (10) - 1 1/16M, 3/5 winner is 2nd by a head at 2nd call
Race 6 (6) - 1 1/16M, 2/1 winner is 2nd, 1 length out at 2nd call
Race 7 (8) - 7f, 3/5 winner is 6th, 3 1/4 lengths out at 2nd call
Race 9 (8) - 1 1/16M, 13/1 winner is 2nd within a half length at 2nd call
Race 11 (14) - 1 1/8M, 9/2 winner is 3rd, 1 1/2 lengths out at 2nd call
Race 13 (11) - 1M, 14/1 winner is 2nd, back a head at 2nd call

So in 8 of 9 races the winner was 3rd or better and no worse than 2 lengths out at the 2nd call (6 furlongs in routes, 4 furlongs in sprints). The only "closer" to win was Carina Mia, who was tons better than the field she was up against. On the other hand, the pace maker was unable to sustain in the last 7 races, finishing 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 4th, 10th and 4th, meaning it was a great day for stalking trips. Something to keep in mind for tomorrow, since the clear weather means the track is probably going to play similar to today.
 
From a talent stand point Cathryn Sophia did figure, and I thought she was a stand out in Ashland but thought she could have a question mark on distance...shitty mistake. On to the next one. Am glad for Cash is King connections since I was a huge Afleet Alex fan.
 
carolinablue said:
Newbie question, but hey we were all newbies at one point right?

I have been doing a ton of reading and have the field narrowed down, but not sure how I should play things on Saturday (will be playing at BOL and also at the party).

Online, should I stick to Superfecta and Trifecta Box or should I focus on Across the Board? Which of these would be the best options if I do multiple plays? Here is how I currently see things playing out (Top 11 only as I think there will be a clear line of demarcation between top 11 and remainder of field) based on my limited knowledge:
17, 13, 14, 11, 3, 9, 6, 19, 15, 5, 20

As far as the party goes, they are going to be focused on win, place, show action, so how should I play that?

Thanks in advance for anyone who responds!
Click to expand...
It's better to bet those bigger payout wagers at the track or off track betting...easier to get paid
 
What do you think of the Uncle Mo's tomorrow? Do they get the distance OK or fold up shop like their pappy and grandpappy? I've never been too enamored with pedigree handicapping personally in terms of distance. Surface yes, maiden winning yes, distance no.
 
carolinablue said:
Newbie question, but hey we were all newbies at one point right?

I have been doing a ton of reading and have the field narrowed down, but not sure how I should play things on Saturday (will be playing at BOL and also at the party).

Online, should I stick to Superfecta and Trifecta Box or should I focus on Across the Board? Which of these would be the best options if I do multiple plays? Here is how I currently see things playing out (Top 11 only as I think there will be a clear line of demarcation between top 11 and remainder of field) based on my limited knowledge:
17, 13, 14, 11, 3, 9, 6, 19, 15, 5, 20

As far as the party goes, they are going to be focused on win, place, show action, so how should I play that?

Thanks in advance for anyone who responds!
Click to expand...
Maybe exacta's
 
Gandolf said:
What do you think of the Uncle Mo's tomorrow? Do they get the distance OK or fold up shop like their pappy and grandpappy? I've never been too enamored with pedigree handicapping personally in terms of distance. Surface yes, maiden winning yes, distance no.
Click to expand...
My main knock on Nyquist isn't Uncle Mo, it's the fact that his numbers declined while stretching out
 
Play2win said:
It's better to bet those bigger payout wagers at the track or off track betting...easier to get paid
Click to expand...

Absolutely. Exactas and Win bets are about as far as I'd go online. Take a look at the prop and matchup bets too, those are fun.
 
I don't love Uncle Mo's going 1 1/4 but it's still possible...I think Dam info is more important than sire but both obv important....I'm a trip capper and Mo Tom obviously had tough trips in last two races but not good enough for top spot imo but won't be shocked if 2nd,3rd,4th
 
Play2win said:
It's better to bet those bigger payout wagers at the track or off track betting...easier to get paid
Click to expand...

Thanks for the heads up P2W. Unfortunately don't have that as an option plus BOL was great all season with cutting checks during cfb and cbb season usually within 7 days at the most. Loved getting those asset management guides with the money orders hidden throughout haha.
 
Play2win said:
My main knock on Nyquist isn't Uncle Mo, it's the fact that his numbers declined while stretching out
Click to expand...

Good point. Well, depends on the number, Bris and Beyer dropped, while Timeform and Thorograph held the same.
 
Not sure what I'm doing and I have a few other things going on which won't help matters but some initial thoughts...

R2: #4 is a bit interesting at 10-1 ml. You know Ken Ramsey wants to win a race on Derby Day...turf in debut race because they wanted 2 turns, then 2 sloppy tracks...layoff and return as 3yo...chase wide off layoff, not ideal situation...then wire field to break maiden after bump at break...then in last 1st time vs winners...improved Beyers in all three races as a 3yo...2nd place finisher two back came back to win
 
R3: #1 had troubled trip in debut for trainer that is much better 2nd out than with 1sters and now adds blinkers and Johnny V
 
R4: usually I love turf maiden races but don't have much here so I'll look at a trainer angle...#7 (15-1 ml)...raced up the track in debut but that was a dirt sprint and this is a turf route...Trainer is very good going dirt to turf and with stretchouts...is a half sis to a turf winner and attracts Javy
 
I find it interesting that Castellano and Baffert are teaming up for Zayat in the 3rd on a first-time starter. That raises eyebrows.
 
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