The 142nd Kentucky Derby - May 7, 2016

[ProV1Colt]

Is there 1 race tomorrow that has a horse that can be singled like Carina Mia today?

 

[Play2win]

I find it interesting that Castellano and Baffert are teaming up for Zayat in the 3rd on a first-time starter. That raises eyebrows.

Yeah, sharp works and interesting like you said but if too short knock would be why they waited so long to run...but did find a spot on Derby Day....Discreetly Mine's aren't great 1st out

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Tepin is by far the most likely winner tomorrow in Race 6 but she is going to be 1/5

 

[Play2win]

R6: Tepin is supposed to win but who runs with #4 early? Isabella Sings could steal it and was within a length of Tepin in last even though she went too fast early.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Race 7 is a good one. Return of Speighster is one I have been waiting for, who knows how good this one can be. In a race lacking a lot of early speed he might go right to the front or sit right off Limo Liberal And get first jump on closers Kobe's Back and Salutos Amigos

 

[Play2win]

Really excited about R7...this early in the year to have so many great sprinters squaring off and like Lloyd said...the return of Speightster...man, this is a dynamite race...always was high on Limousine Liberal and even though this is a step up, he could be the main speed....had Calculator last time and he ran 30 feet (Trakus) more than Salutos...lean 3 and 5 at this point but could go many directions

 

[Play2win]

R8 I like 6,9 the best but could see 4 or 10

 

[Lloyd Braun]

R8 I like 6,9 the best but could see 4 or 10

Like 9 and 10 best with 6 and 7 a little to hit the board

 

[Play2win]

R9 is start of pk4 that ends with Derby...#1 Airoforce is a major force returning to turf...#3 tough trip in last...really interested in #11 off his last two turf races

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Race 9: Airoforce returns to preferred surface but tough to judge if he has improved any in his sophomore season. Usually play against west coast turners but liking Dressed in Hermes best in here, should get a nice stalking trip and be moving in the stretch. Also like JRs Holiday

 

[Play2win]

R9: Originally didn't like #8 but maybe have to use because could be controlling speed in a race that lacks other early speeds

 

[Play2win]

Like every other race on this card, R10 is also wide open: looking #7,#5,#12

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Like every other race on this card, R10 is also wide open: looking #7,#5,#12

I was liking #7 too but his only win was in the slop at Delta Downs which is a bull ring, think #6 might be able to steal it on the front end

 

[Play2win]

I was liking #7 too but his only win was in the slop at Delta Downs which is a bull ring, think #6 might be able to steal it on the front end

isn't #5 faster than #6?

 

[Play2win]

Quicker? How ever you're supposed to say it

 

[Play2win]

Wish Sheikh of Sheikhs was in here

 

[Play2win]

isn't #5 faster than #6?

I'm being a homer but I put that aside...I do know Louie from wayyyyy back...I'm sure you do as well because of your location....knew him as a jockey on our circuit but I'm sure you know him from Durso circle....anyways, he's good peoples and I'm rooting

 

[Lloyd Braun]

isn't #5 faster than #6?

Possibly, but I don't think so. #5 has beat cheaper and while his fractions were faster it looks to me as one who might be a horse for course at Tampa and that sandy track

 

[Play2win]

R11: was looking 3,8,11...and 20-1 ml on #11 might be the worst ml ever made

 

[Lloyd Braun]

R11: was looking 3,8,11...and 20-1 ml on #11 might be the worst ml ever made

The 3 newcomers to this division essentially, like #8 a lot, like the versatility of #11 which is a real nice tool for this turf distance And also like #10 a little

 

[Play2win]

The 3 newcomers to this division essentially, like #8 a lot, like the versatility of #11 which is a real nice tool for this turf distance And also like #10 a little

you talked me into #10...and like #8 a lot as well. Get paid tomorrow :shake2:

 

[Lloyd Braun]

you talked me into #10...and like #8 a lot as well. Get paid tomorrow :shake2:

It wasn't a very persuasive argument, but thanks. Make money bro

 

[Lloyd Braun]

On a side note, if the turf is good or better I think Sanctify is live tomorrow in the 8th at Belmont at what should be a decent price

 

[Play2win]

On a side note, if the turf is good or better I think Sanctify is live tomorrow in the 8th at Belmont at what should be a decent price

Aw shit...didn't even see entries. LFG!!!

 

[Play2win]

It wasn't a very persuasive argument, but thanks. Make money bro

Just a mention was good in this case :cheers3:

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Aw shit...didn't even see entries. LFG!!!

Snuck in when everyone is watching Churchill, they were off the turf today and he doesn't do his best running on the softer turf, so hopefully it dries out well

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Just a mention was good in this case :cheers3:

:cheers3:

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Just a mention was good in this case :cheers3:

My man Bill has been having a real nice spring, once his horses got out of quarantine down in Payson he's been doing quite well

 

[Play2win]

We could always parlay our winnings into Lillard over pt props tomorrow

 

[Lloyd Braun]

We could always parlay our winnings into Lillard over pt props tomorrow

:shake:

 

[Gandolf]

Using the following price horses in the early races to anchor some Pick 3s

Race 2 - 4 and 7
Race 3 - 11
Race 4 - 10 and 12
Race 5 - 3 and 12

Race 2 Pick 3 - 4, 7 / 1, 7, 10, 11 / 1, 10, 11, 12

 

[Gandolf]

Staying away from horses are proven to have no early speed on the dirt until one of them shows they can win. That means the 8 in Race 2.

 

[Gandolf]

Geroux winning everything in site lately, had the 9 forwardly placed and moved him up nicely at a big number. 8 took a lot of money, broke last as expected, clunked up for fourth.

Race 3 Pick 3 - 11 / 1, 10, 11, 12 / 2, 3, 10, 12

 

[Gandolf]

Race 4 - 10, 12 / 2, 3, 10, 12 / 1

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Race 5 Pick 4: 3,10,12/1/1,4,5,6,8/6,7,9,10

 

[Play2win]

R6: DD #4/3,5
R7: DD #3,5/6,9,10
R8: Win #9

 

[Gandolf]

Lanarie is the new Calvin Bo-rail

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Lanarie is the new Calvin Bo-rail

For good or bad Lanarie will be coming up the rail

 

[Lloyd Braun]

I'm not real high on Shagaf today but the fact he is currently 54-1 is pretty ridiculous, especially when a horse like Oscar Nominated is 40-1

 

[Gandolf]

This is bad beat memory lane coming up, Tepin upset me on Belmont Stakes Day and Wavell Avenue crushed my pick 4 hopes on Breeders Cup day.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

She's a freak

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Race 7 Pick 3: 1,3,6/6,9,10/3,6,10,11,12

 

[Gandolf]

Trifecta swing Race 7 - 3,6 / 3,5,6 / 1,5,6,8

 

[Gandolf]

LOL at the pic of Tom Benson's horse chewing paint off the barn door

 

[T-Squared]

Gandy, thanks for all your expertise here. Great info and insight you provide.

 

[Gandolf]

:shake:
My pleasure T-Squared

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Trifecta swing Race 7 - 3,6 / 3,5,6 / 1,5,6,8

I like that wager, get it Gandolf

 

[Gandolf]

Ugh, 2 for 2 at the distance now goes 3 for 3. Got back to what he does best, should've used for the price.

 

[Gandolf]

Classic example of what we've been seeing on the dirt though, the early speed is fading, the stalkers are winning and the late runners are picking up the bottom pieces. Thought I had the right stalkers....1 of 2.

 

[bloodhound]

not winning much today but decided on these for R#11, maybe posting will change my luck

R11 Woodford Reserve
#10 to win
exacta 10,12/3,6,10,12



R12 Kentucky Derby
#17 to win
exacta 11,17/11,13,14,17

GL guys