The 142nd Kentucky Derby - May 7, 2016

Gandolf

Gandolf

Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Less than two weeks to go now. Brisnet free past performances are here:

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf

My secret sauce in evaluating the Derby field is a self-made tool I call stretch gain. I take the last 5 mile or longer races for each horse and check their place at the start of the stretch vs their position at the wire. If they came from 2nd or worse to win, they get a point. Or if they gain at least 3/4 of a length on the winner or extend their winning margin by at least 3/4 of a length, they get a point. If they gain 0 to 1/2 lengths, they get 1/2 a point. If they lose ground to the winner or their winning margin shrinks, it's a zero. Add up the 5 race total, if its 3 or higher then the horse has demonstrated consistent ability in the stretch. (With less than 5 route races available I prorate the number to an equivalent 5 races).

Next I look at the actual number of lengths gained/loss in those same five races. If they showed a net gain its a positive.

Take the two factor together:
- Both positive lengths gained and 3 or higher in stretch gain, I give that horse a +.
- One of the other qualifying, they get a checkmark.
- Neither qualifying, the horse gets a minus.

Going back to 2005, the top 4 finishers in each Derby have always had one of the following two sets of factors going for it:

1) A combination of at least two of the following three factors (39 of 45 top 4 finishers (Brother Derek and Jazil deadheated for fourth in 2006) and 10 of 11 winners had this)

- One of their last 5 races has a speed rating of 100 or more
- One of their last 5 races has a class rating of 121 or more
- A checkmark or + in the stretch analysis

27 of 45 in the top four have checked all three boxes, including 7 of 11 winners (the exceptions being Giacomo, Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird and I'll Have Another, all of whom went off at greater than 15-1.)

2) Only a + in the stretch analysis. This has actually only occurred five times out of the 44 top four finishers:
- Mine That Bird and Pioneer of the Nile go 1-2 in 2009 (on an off track)
- Paddy O'Prado and Make Music for Me go 3-4 in 2010 (on an off track)
- Commanding Curve takes 2nd in 2014 (fast track)

I think a sloppy track brings more of these "slow closers" into play as different horses take to the slop in much different ways.

What I like about stretch gain is that it measures the "gameness" of the horse and the connections. The Derby will be at least a furlong longer than these horses have ever run, so you definitely want to be aware of those that in the past have shown a deeper bottom to their late running ability.

The key is that no horse with zero boxes checked has finished in the top 4. This year's horses that fit this unfortunate bill:

- Outwork - best speed 96, best class 120, 0 for 2 in the stretch in routes. Lightly raced though.
- Shagaf - speed 99, class 120, 2 1/2 in stretch - JUST MISSED on all three, he's lightly raced so he may still be in play.
- Majesto - speed 97, class 118, 1- in stretch
- Tom's Ready - speed 99, class 118, 1/2- in stretch
- Whitmore - speed 97, class 118, 0- in stretch
- ALL the AE horses except Adventist and Cherry Wine are also 0 for 3. Both those two rate a + in stretch gain.

Stretch gain only qualifiers
- Oscar Nominated only has the + stretch gain.
- Trojan Nation only has a checkmark in stretch gain. I'd rate him a toss.
- Mo Tom only has a + stretch gain
- Lani coming from UAE Derby is a bit of an unknown, but these horses have not had much success in the Derby.

The triple qualifiers:

- Nyquist
- Destin
- Gun Runner
- Mor Spirit

The double qualifiers

- Danzig Candy - speed and class
- Mohaymen - speed and stretch gain
- Exaggerator - speed and class
- Suddenbreakingnews - class and stretch gain
- Brody's Cause - class and stretch gain
- My Man Sam - speed and stretch gain
- Creator - speed and stretch gain

So at this point a 3rd of the field is an outright toss, with 11 as potential win candidates before delving deeper into pace, post positions, workouts, breeding, video, over the next two weeks.
 
Looking at the primary contenders, I lean towards Gun Runner and Mor Spirit. Nyquist has done little wrong in going 7 for 7 in his career, but the breeding begs the question of whether 10 furlongs is in his wheelhouse. Indian Charlie was distance limited and the dam side looks more sprint oriented. Destin will be running off an 8 week layoff since winning the Tampa Derby, which is unheard of for young horses trying to establish a level of stamina.

Mor Spirit ran a sneaky good race in the Santa Anita Derby, tracking a strong pace within 5 lengths then maintaining a stretch run similar to the winner after Exaggerator below past them all on the turn. Exaggerator now has a grade 1 win and place and a grade 3 win on off tracks, while finishing 3rd and 4th in graded stakes on fast tracks. Nice horse but I'll like him a lot more if it rains.

Gun Runner was excellent in Louisiana and sufficiently fast. He also has a win at Churchill which is a plus. Creator caught a strong pace to run at in his Arkansas win. The Derby may not be that fast early, as only Outwork and Danzig Candy look like need the lead types.
 
Very cool insight as to how you analyze for this type of race. Thank you.

Nyquist is my pick for the Derby -- good luck to all!
 
Thanks gents. Mor Spirit with a concerning work today according to Mike Welsch, running a blowout first quarter then tiring badly. Not sure if Baffert planned that or what.
 
Mohaymen getting good buzz early as to how he looks. Might be poised to come back to his Holy Bull effort.

This race is as much about fitness as it is ability since it's one of two races at a distance that no horse in the field has ever tackled (the other being the 12 furlong Belmont).

So how well the horse is training gets a lot of weight. High ability but looking bad on the track is a concern (think Uncle Mo a few years ago).
 
Your post is why I love this site. i always have at least a little action on the derby and to say I know little about the ponies is accurate. I'll be tailing you in some capacity, so appreciate you posting. GL
 
Lani seems like an interesting horse


Clocker: Lani his own worst enemy

By Mike Welsch

CHURCHILL DOWNS
Track: Good/Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temp.: 67

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – As if there aren’t enough variables in the equation to get a horse ready to be at his best on Kentucky Derby Day, you can now add weather to the mix. Overnight rain hit here Tuesday, and with more in the forecast as the week progresses, it is likely to have a major effect on training and workout schedules through the weekend.
Despite heavy rain the previous evening, the main track was harrowed and in excellent shape when it opened for training at 5:45 a.m. on Wednesday. The track was labeled “good” to start off before being upgraded to “fast” in time for the special Derby/Oaks training session nearly three hours later.
The lone Derby worker of the morning was UAE Derby winner LANI, who has been a bit of an enigma since his arrival in Louisville. The Japanese invader appeared to have turned the corner with a couple of long and aggressive gallops the previous two mornings. But he was back to his old antics before and during what had been a scheduled six-furlong work but which ended up being shortened to three-eighths, timed in 37.52, due to his reluctance to cooperate with regular rider Yutaka Take, who flew into town specifically for this breeze.
Lani appeared to be out of sorts from the moment he came onto the racetrack and seemed to dig his toes in as he galloped slowly past the finish line and made his way into the clubhouse turn. Take was ultimately able to drop Lani down on the rail nearing the six-furlong pole, but the son of Tapit refused to extend himself while inadvertently hooking in with Destin, who had just begun his routine gallop. Take prodded Lani on numerous occasions to get him to accelerate but failed until Lani reached the three-eighths pole and finally separated himself from Destin.


Lani completed an eighth of a mile to the top of the stretch in 14.43 seconds, then finally stretched out down the lane under vigorous urging from his rider, lugging in briefly from a sharp right-handed stick near the eighth pole before completing a final quarter in 23.09 while remaining on his left lead throughout. He eased up midway on the clubhouse turn after galloping out a half-mile in 50.93.
“He was a little shy to start, but after the quarter pole, we got a good gallop for two furlongs,” Take said.
This was the third time, and the second time in the last four days, that Lani has shown a reluctance to extend himself when put down on the rail to breeze. Needless to say, that is not what anyone wants to see just 1 1/2 weeks out from Derby Day.
Among the gallopers to catch the eye this morning were OUTWORK and the Chad Brown-trained duo of SHAGAF and MY MAN SAM. Outwork has made a very favorable impression in his first two gallops over the track and gives the appearance of a horse who continues to improve and is peaking at the right time. Both Shagaf and My Man Sam came out of their works on Sunday showing a good deal of energy. My Man Sam was the more aggressive of the pair, jumping back to his left lead briefly at midstretch while obviously wanting to do more than his rider would allow.
MO TOM, who may have breezed this morning if it hadn’t rained, looked as good as always, galloping before dawn rather than during the Derby/Oaks session. Mo Tom galloped two miles, picking up the pace, as usual, the second time around. He covered mile No. 2 in 1:55 and change before pulling up near the six-furlong pole, reversing direction, and jogging nearly another mile back to his barn.
MOHAYMEN got very aggressive again once he turned down the backstretch, throwing his head a couple of times before dragging his rider from the three-eighths pole to the wire in 42 seconds while kept well out near the middle of the track.
DESTIN again appeared to lose focus on several occasions once he lost Lani as a partner midway on the second turn, despite being equipped with blinkers, and he got very warm by the time he completed the gallop.
VENUS VALENTINE was the only Oaks worker of the morning, breezing immediately after the track opened for training. The Grade 2 winner went four furlongs in 49.20 while responding readily to late urging before galloping out willingly into and around the turn.
 
OK, time to take a closer look at these colts/geldings, sorted by their running style and anticipated position on the backstretch. (Note-weather for Saturday currently projected to be excellent, so I'm anticipating a fast track.

Danzig Candy

WHY HE CAN WIN - An unabashed front runner, he figures to be in the lead at the 2nd call, which makes him dangerous if he can ration his speed. Was able to do just that in the San Felipe, where he beat Exaggerator and Mor Spirit on a fast track with one of the best speed figures/sheet numbers in the field. Can toss the last race as a runoff on a wet track. There appears to only be a limited number of options to challenge him on the front end. The Cal horses appear to be ahead of the curve again this year, Exaggerator won the Delta Jackpot, Nyquist travelled cross-country to whip the east coast fave Mohaymen, Cupid won the rebel, a maiden Trojan Nation came within a head of winning the Wood. The Cal horses look like the ones to beat, and Danzig Candy is the fastest of the four.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - Ran off without much prompting in the SA Derby, how fast do you think he'll sprint through the wall of sound at Churchill? Front runners winning the Derby are rare. Average winning distance of the sire and dam sire are both in the 6-6.5 furlong range, so there are distance concerns. The race is loaded with mid-pack and late runners, so any pressure on the backstretch will be followed by wave after wave of horses gunning for him. Jon White's strike system rates him as very unlikely to win.

PROSPECTS - Can't see him wiring this field, and hanging on for a piece of the super is unlikely but not impossible.
 
Outwork

WHY HE CAN WIN - By all accounts is training great leading up to the race, and he's only had four starts in his career so he should have room to improve. Survived tracking a really fast pace to dig in and win the Wood. Thorograph number of 1.2 was solid. Rumor has it he's been getting rating lessons in his training, so he may be able to stalk and pounce, which coupled with his gameness could make him tough to get by. Strike system has him rated a contender.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - The Wood number came back slow in speed figures, and Wood runners in general have not been too successful in the Derby for awhile. A true stalking trip would be a first for him, and its always tough to back a horse in the Derby that's trying something new. Has lost ground in the stretch in both his two turn starts. Then there's the Pletcher factor, 1 for 43 in this race.

PROSPECTS - My numbers say he's a complete toss. The clockers say he could be competitive. I don't think he gets past Danzig Candy early and so I can see one of two scenarios: 1) can't get past Danzig Candy and succumbs in the stretch, 2) challenges Danzig Candy hard and fries them both. Neither way is very useful.
 
Thanks for your insight Gandy, so interesting to read. Seems so very wide open this year, certainly feels like one of those years where a horse comes from nowhere in the stretch to take it
 
Nyquist

WHY HE CAN WIN - Well, he hasn't lost yet, going 7 for 7 with four Grade 1 and two Grade 2 wins. He's beaten Mohaymen and Grade 1 prep winners Brody's Cause and Exaggerator. The win at Gulfstream shows he's not just a Cal phenomenon. He has good tactical speed and doesn't need the lead to excel, having rallied from 3 lengths off to win the BC Juvenile. Strike system says he's a contender. He'll certainly be the favorite, somewhere around 3 to 1.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - Best speed numbers have come in sprint races, his two turn routes have been good but hardly great. Top Thorograph number of 2.3 has been touched three times without improving upon it, and that number is slower than many in the field. Son of Uncle Mo, grandson of Indian Charlie has a pedigree for mile and shorter races, terrible Dosage index number.

PROSPECTS - Should be able to put himself into a prime position on the backstretch, and get first run at Danzig Candy and Outwork. Maybe he outruns his pedigree like California Chrome has, or he could succumb to the distance and/or a quick early pace. His routes have all been 1:11&2 and up for 6 furlongs, this one could be a full second faster which would be trouble. After waiting 20 years we've now seen 3 straight favorites win. Is that a product of the points system or just a quirk? My gut says he needs to be used in triples and supers but he's probably worth playing against to win.
 
kjohnson109 said:
Thanks for your insight Gandy, so interesting to read. Seems so very wide open this year, certainly feels like one of those years where a horse comes from nowhere in the stretch to take it
Click to expand...

This is definitely one of the tougher puzzles in recent years. I think a healthy dose of price horses will do us well.
 
Gun Runner

WHY HE CAN WIN - Winner of the La Derby has had a couple of visually impressive stretch runs on the long stretch at the Fairgrounds, with improving speed numbers under rising jockey Florent Geroux. Has experience and a win at Churchill, his only loss was on a sloppy track, so four for four on fast tracks. Might have the magic story factor with trainer Steve Asmussen, 0 for 13 in the Derby, just announced for the Hall of Fame.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - Grade 2 wins to date means improvement is needed to win this Grade 1. Thorograph numbers have been surprisingly mediocre despite winning, with a pair of 5s in the La races. Finished behind Cal horse Mor Spirit last fall in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

PROSPECTS - I don't know what to make of those sheet figures, its the only thing that gives me pause. I guess it implies that he's had some dream trips to win his two races this year, but maybe he's just good enough to make those happen. He's been tracking solid paces and still kicking for home with good energy. I think he's a major player and should be a square price.
 
Destin

WHY HE CAN WIN - Was flattered by Outwork's win in the Wood, after beating him head to head in the Tampa Derby. Has shown a real gameness in the stretch for a stalker type. His sheet number in the Tampa Derby of -0.3 is the best figure in the field.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - His ownership group is involved with the Ragozin sheets, which warn of a bounce for horses returning off a big number, which apparently influenced their decision to rest him rather than run him back in one of the Grade 1 preps. So the negatives become obvious: no 9 furlong prep (only horse in the field) and an 8 week layoff that has NEVER been a Derby winning formula. Meaning there are legit questions about his stamina level for going 10 furlongs. Oh yeah, did I mention he's trained by a 1 for 43 Derby trainer?

PROSPECTS - Just too many question marks to think he's going to win this test. He could a factor in exotics, but the cavalry will be coming behind him.
 
Mohaymen

WHY HE CAN WIN - He was the east coast "it" horse after 4 straight grade 2 wins before a surprisingly dull effort against Nyquist in the Florida Derby. His sheet figure in the Fountain of Youth is tied for top 3, his strike system number rates him a contender, and his speed figures are only a couple of lengths off the best in the field. If there's an excuse for his FL Derby performance then he could still be a legit contender. He's shown high energy since coming to Churchill.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - There is little to excuse that FL Derby effort. The track was rated good and he'd already won there twice, now he couldn't even beat Fellowship a third straight time? The whip was out on him, so I don't think the connections were using the race solely as an extended workout. His wins were Grade 2s, now he finally meets a Grade 1 horse in Nyquist and look what happens.

PROSPECTS - Probably the biggest mystery in this race is what to do what this horse. I'm inclined to pass on him, since he figures to still take a lot of money and will likely be an underlay. He's been able to track average to slow paces in his preps, I don't think he gets that chance on Saturday.
 
I've read Derby articles on probably 20 different sites and your work is the best I've read...keep em coming bud :cheers3:
 
Excellent info and write ups Gandolf, much appreciated.
Will be checking back and best to you with your picks:shake:
 
Majesto

WHY HE CAN WIN - He's on the improve jumping up from a maiden win to place 2nd to champion Nyquist in the Florida Derby. He's got a foundation as the only horse in the field to have run three 9 furlong races. He kept good company in his maiden efforts, going against the likes of Destin, Gettysburg and Dig Deep.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - It took the stewardship of an Eclipse award winning jockey in Castellano to final crack this horses maiden in his 5th attempt this February. Javier will be on Destin in the Derby. Speed and sheet figures require a big leap forward. The one above average pace he contested he ran a distant sixth. Still no rider for this horse yet. Despite the foundation and some average pace setups he has lost ground 4 out of 5 times in his two turn routes.

PROSPECTS - I don't see any chance this horse wins. Not the style of horse to sneak into the super late either, as he'll look to be in the top half of the field on the backstretch.
 
Ok, so those are the front runners and tracking types, now we get to the mid-pack horses:

Exaggerator
Mor Spirited
Oscar Nominated
Shagaf
Whitmore
Tom's Ready


Exaggerator

WHY HE CAN WIN - A star as a 2YO with Grade 2 and Grade 3 wins, he seems to have taken that critical next step forward with his stylish win in the Santa Anita Derby. His sheet number of 0.3 for that race is the 2nd best number in the field behind Destin and his 8 week layoff. His speed and class ratings scream contender. Figures to be the 2nd choice on the board, around 6 to 1. Uncle Lino finished third in the Derby and just won the California Chrome stakes, further flattering the California horses.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - Of his five 2 turn graded stakes races, three were on off tracks were Exaggerator went Win-Place-Win. On two fast tracks he finished 3rd and 4th. So he might be a bit of an off-track specialist. He's 0 for 3 against Nyquist at distances ranging from 5 to 8 1/2 furlongs, all on fast tracks. He's also lost ground in 4 of the 5 two turn races, the exception being his last effort.

PROSPECTS - His spotty record on fast tracks and his surprisingly so-so stretch running efforts make me doubtful of him as a win candidate, but I will include him often in the exotics.
 
Mor Spirit

WHY HE CAN WIN - Start with his connections, Baffert and Stevens, who have seven Derby wins between them. He's a Thorograph darling, having pulled a 1 in his 1 mile maiden score at two and a 1.1 in the San Felipe, the only horse in the field with two sub-2 figures. In general he's been quite consistent: 2nd/Win/2nd (grade2)/Win (grade1)/Win (grade3)/2nd (grade2)/2nd (grade 1). His speed figures are solid, he's a contender in the Strike system, and he's got a good race at Churchill under his belt, where the only horse to beat him fell off the trail this spring. His stretch runs in six 2 turn races: gained 4 lengths/lost 1.5 (off-track)/gain 1.75/gain 2.5/gain 1.5/gain 0.25 (off-track), pretty good numbers on fast tracks.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - Three wins but four seconds as a 7 time favorite. Does he have a little bit of seconditis or is he a half-notch below in talent but gives a big effort every time?

PROSPECTS - I'm sure this horse has a flaw or two that I'm missing, but I see too many positives here, from the connections to his consistency to his solid figures to his stretch runs to his California roots. And he might go off at double digit odds? Will be using liberally from 1st to 4th.
 
Oscar Nominated

WHY HE CAN WIN - In his first try on a surface other than turf, this horse rallied 5 wide against a soft pace to win the Grade 3 Spiral on the wire. Sure it was on an all-weather track, but the Derby has been forgiving to Turfway shippers in the past like Animal Kingdom. Jockey Leparoux is hot now and loves riding in Kentucky.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - This horse in no Animal Kingdom. His speed and sheet numbers are poor, and the Spiral had a subpar field. This horse wasn't even triple crown nominated, the Ramseys paid the $200,000 late entry fee to get him into the gate.

PROSPECTS - I think he'll be a bigger longshot than Mine That Bird at post time, and deservedly so. He probably won't finish last, but he'll have a hard time finishing in the top 10.
 
Shagaf

WHY HE CAN WIN - Chad Brown is one of the top trainers in the US, winning graded stakes at an 18% clip. Shagaf is lightly raced, was 3 for 3 with a grade 3 win in the Gotham before getting bumped around in that quirky Wood.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - His speed numbers have declined since his impressive maiden win. His sheet numbers put him a couple of points behind the best in the field. The Wood has been panned as a below average race, and in recent years has not produced much. He finished 4 lengths behind a maiden for crying out loud. The Strike system rates him as highly unlikely to win.

PROSPECTS - Can't get past that poor result in the Wood. Seems like one of those horses that will run 10th at the 2nd call and maybe 8th at the wire.
 
Whitmore

WHY HE CAN WIN - Gets Victor Espinosa to ride, looking for his 3rd straight Derby winner and 6th Triple Crown win in 7 races. Broke his maiden at Churchill so he should be fine with the track. Has improved nicely this year, running a pair of 2.2s on the sheets his last two races, which could portend a move forward next race. That could put him right in the mix. He's run in 10-14 horse fields in every race, so he'll be used to the chaos. His starts have been poor, but that shouldn't be as big an issue in the Derby with an extra furlong to work with. His breeding should hit 10 furlongs right in the eyes.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - He's been shockingly poor in the stretch in his four route races: -5 1/2 lengths...-3/4...-1 1/4....-2, even with some fast paces to run at. His only two wins have been a maiden sprint and an optional claimer sprint, 0 for 4 in routes. Needs to make a serious step forward to be on par with some of the others.

PROSPECTS - Whitmore is a tricky horse. He's consistently parlayed nice moves on the turn going a bit wide into flat finishes where he'll hang onto a piece of the money. Creator blew right by him in the Ark Derby with a better path through the traffic, and Suddenbreakingnews ran him down in the stretch. Could Whitmore finish better with a better ride? I think I'm going to have to let him do it without my money.
 
Tom's Ready

WHY HE CAN WIN - Dallas Stewart has developed a reputation for developing long shot horses for Triple Crown races, with 2nd place finishes at big prices in the 2013 and 2014 Derbys and 2015 Preakness. Tom's Ready has nine starts, the most of any horse in the field, and is peaking now, running by far his best race in the La Derby at 30 to 1. His speed figure of 99 is similar to what Commanding Curve did in his Derby prep. He's got a win and a 2nd at Churchill.

WHY HE CAN LOSE - His sheet numbers are bad, his top number of 5.2 ties him for last with Mo Tom and Majesto. The Strike system says he's not a primary contender. His stretch work has been poor (unlike Commanding Curve, who was a strong closer). He's still eligible for non-winner of 2 races after 9 starts. His one 2 turn race at Churchill was ugly, although it could be excused by the sloppy track.

PROSPECTS - After Golden Soul's upset place run in 2013 I was lucky enough to use Commanding Curve in the tri in 2014. I don't see Tom's Ready having the same ability. Those two were both solid finishers, Tom's Ready has not been, and we're going to cover five who are next. Toss.
 
I'll cover the closers in the field a little later, but first I want to talk about Lani, who Timeform is showing as a midpack type. These UAE Derby horses are tough to evaluate, since the US is light years ahead of other countries in terms of detailed race results. Lani is different than past UAE horses in that he comes from racing in Japan as opposed to Europe. Apparently they have some unique training ideas there, since (as the article Lloyd posted above shows) he's been the talk of the clockers, not always in a good way. The buzz around him certainly has not been as strong as it was with Mubtahij last year, who would up sixth. He does come out of Tapit, who's been a red hot sire, although his prodigy are 0 for 4 in the Derby. He also comes from a Sunday Silence mare, so the breeding is solid. But for me I think its as simple as needing to see one of these horses actually succeed before I'm ever going to put any significant $ towards them.

PS - Thorograph has his UAE Derby rated a 5, which was a 4 point improvement from his previous prep race. With the cross-Atlantic trip I have doubts as to the prospects of another 4 point improvement which would be needed to win.
 
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be a miracle if any of Tom Benson's horses do anything. Always felt "we" kinda got shafted on what was given, although the story that is printed is a bit different

hey Dallas and Trainer Tom are no slouches, so I always pull for them too(well, almost always)
 
Think I’m down to the six closers to summarize, but before I go horse by horse there’s a blanket stat that covers most of them that throws some real cold water on their chances. This comes from Derek Simon, who’s a well known source in the handicapping community on pace analysis. Derek reviewed the races since 1992 with respect to Quirin Speed Points, which Brisnet shows on their past performances right next to the horse’s name. The numbering system goes from 0 to 8, the higher the number the more forward the horse tends to be to the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] call (1/2 mile on route races). In this year’s race Danzig Candy and Outwork are the only 8s, while there are a half dozen that rate a zero:

Creator
Suddenbreakingnews
Mo Tom
Whitmore
Brody’s Cause
My Man Sam

The stat: since 1992 – 77 horses have had either 0 or 1 speed point, they are 0 for 77 to win, with 2 places and 4 show finishes.

The results for other speed numbers:
2 – 3 for 49, 4 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], 2 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
3 – 4 for 62, 3 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], 5 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
4 – 4 for 44, 3 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], 3 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
5 – 2 for 63, 5 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], 3 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
6 – 4 for 45, 3 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], 2 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
7 – 6 for 38, 1 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], 2 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
8 – 1 for 55, 3 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], 3 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]

So this tells me that despite the extra furlong, and regardless of the pace, you CAN be too far back at the start to recover. The question then becomes do all six run to their type? There are rumblings that Creator might be a little more forward than usual, but this brings up the problem of a horse trying to new things against an accomplished field. Usually not a recipe for success. More food for thought in this wide open Derby.
 
Creator

WHY HE CAN WIN – Worked out a great trip past 11 others to win the Ark Derby in a good time with solid final fractions, a feat he will need to duplicate on Saturday. Consistently improving through his 2016 campaign, another small improvement in his Thorograph number will put him right in the mix. Really strong stretch gain numbers, and a good foundation with 8 route races since September. He’ll be fit. The 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] of two Asmussen horses, who in his HOF induction year may finally break through with his first Derby win. One of several Tapit horses in the field, the dominant sire in recent times. Has a credible effort at Churchill as a 2YO.

WHY HE CAN LOSE – Only broke his maiden just this February in his sixth try. From there the light bulb has been switched on, he’s gone from 13 to 2.1 on the sheets, but does he have room to improve further? Caught a classic pace meltdown at Oaklawn, as the 11[SUP]th[/SUP], 10[SUP]th[/SUP] and 9[SUP]th[/SUP] place horses at the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] call wound up running 1,2,3. The Derby is not projecting to be quite so fast with its limited number of front runners.

PROSPECTS – He’s a solid horse with a great foundation, but I don’t see another step forward coming and matching his last effort will probably leave him a length or two short. But he’ll be passing horses late and is a good play in the exotics.
 
Suddenbreakingnews

WHY HE CAN WIN – Ran a much wider trip than Creator and still came within a length of catching him, which actually got him a full point better Thorograph number, a 1.1. Unlike Creator he’s been running solid races against good competition for a long time, having broken his maiden last September, so the low number is not unreasonable and could be duplicated Saturday. Was outstanding in the Southwest, where he rallied 8 lengths in the stretch going 7 wide to win comfortably over Whitmore.

WHY HE CAN LOSE – Is now 0 for 2 against Creator, and seems to run into trouble or go extra wide often, which will be deadly in the Derby. Speed figure is a notch below the better horses in the field.

PROSPECTS – Another good solid closer, has only been ahead of 5 out of 37 horses at the 6 furlong pole in his 3 graded stakes, so he’s going to have to work out a trip and hope for a strong pace. There’s a surprising number of horses in this field that can say that. I see four horses that will start out back in the last 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] of the field that may have a difficult time winning but could run on to catch a piece. He’s one of the four but probably the worst of them.
 
Trojan Nation
WHY HE CAN WIN – He’s a late blooming Cal horse that came within a head of winning the Grade 1 Wood. Cal horses have been dominating the stakes races this year.

WHY HE CAN LOSE – Maidens are 0 for 9 since 1945, with none finishing better than eighth. He got a dream rail trip and a breakneck pace to run at which he almost parlayed into a stunning 80 to 1 upset, which is why his Thorograph number was 3 points higher than a much harder working Outwork. As a five time loser of maiden races, he’s been just as likely to fade badly in the stretch as he's been to gain ground.

PROSPECTS – Really? He was 80 to 1 in the Wood. He might be less than that in the Derby, which would make him an underlay. Toss.
 
My Man Sam

WHY HE CAN WIN – Chad Brown trained horse stayed on Brody's Cause's tail finish 2nd in the Blue Grass in only the fourth race of his career. Still on the improve, basically paired his last two sheet numbers which could signal a significant leap forward from the 3.2 last out. That could put him right in the mix. He's been a warrior in the stretch in his 3 two turn races, and he's got a speed figure two back on the Aqueduct inner that qualifies him as a possible contender.

WHY HE CAN LOSE – Not too many products of the Aqueduct inner have gone on to ultimate glory in the Derby. Like all closers will need to work out a trip to pass 15+ horses. Is still eligible for Allowance N1X, so these are pretty deep waters too swim in. Long odds against him winning according to the Strike system.

PROSPECTS – This horse is interesting to me. I like the connections, I like the improvement angle, I like his tenacity running late. Not sure he can win but will definitely be a player in the exotics and should be a very attractive price.
 
Mo Tom

WHY HE CAN WIN – Start with his success at Churchill, were he's won a stake and finished 3rd but was gaining late as a 2YO in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Has caught a couple of really bad trips in the La Derby and Risen Star yet has still run on to catch a piece of the super. Last speed figure was only 5-6 lengths behind the better ones. If he could only catch a clean trip he could improve enough to be right in the mix. Pretty good battler in the stretch, at least most of the time.

WHY HE CAN LOSE – It's hard to consistently get good trips when you need to pass 7-10 horses. Imagine how tough it will be to pass 15-17 horses? Sheets numbers factor in the trip to a degree and still turn up woefully slow, even an improvement won't be enough to make him a win contender.

PROSPECTS – Not much chance to win, but debatable as to whether he can catch a good enough trip to be challenging for the money spots. Other closers have been better. He's beaten Tom's Ready twice, so I can't argue with the statement that he's the better of the Toms.
 
Brody's Cause

WHY HE CAN WIN – Has been well considered as a contender since winning the Breeder's Cup Futurity last year at Keeneland. Finally seems to be living up to his progress with his Blue Grass win. Trainer Romans is a Louisville native so he wants to win this probably more than anyone. He'll have BC ready to run well. Has a win at Churchill which is always a plus. Has been a stretch running warrior in all his races with the exception of the Tampa Bay Derby, which can be tossed due to the quirkiness of that track. Good enough in the class rating and the Strike system also labels him a contender.

WHY HE CAN LOSE – The Blue Grass was slow in both speed figures and sheet numbers. Would need a significant improvement here to have a chance. Like the other closers he'll need pace a way to get past 16-19 horses without a hiccup.

PROSPECTS – Class is class and this horse is classy enough to make some noise in the exotics. Not a fan of his chances of winning, which helps the field since he'll be taking some money as the Blue Grass winner.
 
What position or positions so I wanna see whitmore in?
and what position sucks for him lol
 
1 is the killer post for all but the slowest closers. 18-20 will be tough for need the leads based on ground needed to cover to reach the turn in good position. Everything else depends on who draws next to you. Most won't matter at all.
 
[h=2]Quick impressions of Wednesday Derby/Oaks training session[/h]Giving Outwork the star of the day amongst an eager bunch of Derby/Oaks gallopers here on a cool Wednesday morning at the Downs that had just about everyone on their toes.
Outwork had his best morning yet coming out of Friday's sharp work and is certainly the most impressive looking of this group along with Majesto. Mo Tom also had his best day perhaps of the last 10 days, opening galloping a mile from the seven-eighths pole the second time around in 1:49.18 then throwing in another :13.03 eighth to boot turning into the backstretch before finally pulling up, reversing direction, and eagerly jogging another mile back to the barn. He is certainly not lacking for fitness as Derby day approaches.
Exaggerator had a busy morning, galloping, schooling in the gate, then galloping another 3/4's of a mile, ears pricked, before returning to the barn. Danzing Candy was a handful to begin but quickly settled into a nice stride and looked sharp today. Brody's Cause also continues to make a very favorable impression coming out of his last work as does Creator and his stable mate Gun Runner.
Mohaymen was a lot more relaxed this morning after spending about 30 minutes schooling in the paddock prior to galloping. He did get a little anxious coming by the wire but quickly came back to hand into the turn before continuing on down the backstretch to complete his 1 1/2 mile session.
 
twinkie13 said:
be a miracle if any of Tom Benson's horses do anything. Always felt "we" kinda got shafted on what was given, although the story that is printed is a bit different

hey Dallas and Trainer Tom are no slouches, so I always pull for them too(well, almost always)
Click to expand...


gandy you know the story here
 
Dollaz said:
Gandolf- I can never read too many of your thoughts. Really appreciate it.
Click to expand...

Hey thanks Dollaz. :shake2:

Gun Runner's Thorograph number bothers me so I did some quick research on their site. They have past Derby field sheets back to the late 90s in their free archives. Since 2001 only two horses have finished in the top 4 coming into the race with a top figure of at least 5:

Golden Soul in the slop in 2013 - 5.2 top, 35-1 place finish
Mine That Bird in the slop in 2009 - 5.2 top, 50-1 win
Giacomo had a 4.2 in his 50-1 win

We're not going to see an off-track on Saturday, so I have to downgrade Gun Runner's prospects. He won't be anywhere near the price he probably should be. Here are the best finishes for horses in past Derby's with a top of at least 5:

2015 - 7th
2014 - 13th
2013 - 2nd (Golden Soul)
2012 - 6th
2011 - 7th
2010 - no 5 point tops
2009 - win (MTB)
2008 - 14th
2007 - 9th
2006 - no 5 point tops
2005 - 8th
2004 - no 5 point tops
2003 - 8th
2002 - 8th
2001 - 7th

Generally horses need to run a sub 3 number to have a shot at hitting the board. About 80% of top 4 finishers are coming in off their top performance. About 20% of top four finishers improve off their top by >2 points, the vast majority improve less than 2 with many matching or even doing worse.

Opposite of Gun Runner, I'm boosting Outwork's prospects. He's been the star of the week for the clockers, and his sheet numbers are much better than his speed number from that weird Wood. Still don't like him to win, but he could catch a piece. Not a total toss.
 
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