***Super Bowl LI Discussion: Atlanta vs New England***

nbafan88 said:
Right now the play I feel strongest about is Blount's rush prop

as well as the falcons receiving the ball first.... if that is even available
Click to expand...

GB had 99 yds rushing and ARod had 46 of those on like 2 scrambles

NE had like 60 yds and Blount had abt 50 as I recall

Know this is a new game, but just sayin
 
bones said:
GB had 99 yds rushing and ARod had 46 of those on like 2 scrambles

NE had like 60 yds and Blount had abt 50 as I recall

Know this is a new game, but just sayin
Click to expand...


I really do not care about anything other than this next game. You guys keep bringing up all these stats..... with the patriots that shit does not matter. BB is a chameleon. He analyzes every single facet of a team's game and then utilizes the most versatile group of players any team has to take advantage of his opponent's weakness while taking away their strength on offense.

The falcons rush defense is not good. They have not faced a team as well rounded as NE even once this season.

Pats are going to ram it down their throats early and often


you don't have to like them but you better respect them
 
nbafan88 said:
I really do not care about anything other than this next game. You guys keep bringing up all these stats..... with the patriots that shit does not matter. BB is a chameleon. He analyzes every single facet of a team's game and then utilizes the most versatile group of players any team has to take advantage of his opponent's weakness while taking away their strength on offense.as

The falcons rush defense is not good. They have not faced a team as well rounded as NE even once this season.

Pats are going to ram it down their throats early and often
Click to expand...

agree with this...rest of post well those are valid opinions. But, think ATL run defense better than ya think and Quinn knows defense. Just sayin
 
bones said:
agree with this...rest of post well those are valid opinions. But, think ATL run defense better than ya think and Quinn knows defense. Just sayin
Click to expand...

if they get up big their run defense is great because other teams have to spread and throw.... very unlikely they are getting up big here

safeties are going to be forced to come in and then Tom will take advantage over the top

I think the game stays under
 

quote_icon.png
Originally Posted by Tito
Team total for the Falcons is 27.5...I like it.

they scored below 28 3 times this year. All on the Road. @Den (23 pts), @Sea (26 pts), and @Phila (24)...


granted, the Pats have allowed only one team to hit 28 (vs Sea) this year, but sweet lord they have had it easy this year. Look at their last 8 games this year. The best Offense they faced was the dolphins.



c'mon now






GWarner....then I'm curious, who do you think was the best Off they faced in the last 8 games?
 
nbafan88 said:
I really do not care about anything other than this next game. You guys keep bringing up all these stats..... with the patriots that shit does not matter. BB is a chameleon. He analyzes every single facet of a team's game and then utilizes the most versatile group of players any team has to take advantage of his opponent's weakness while taking away their strength on offense.

The falcons rush defense is not good. They have not faced a team as well rounded as NE even once this season.

Pats are going to ram it down their throats early and often


you don't have to like them but you better respect them
Click to expand...





this is a good point....and while i dont buy much in to Pats Defensive stats this year bc of the amazingly easy schedule they had, i dont doubt they have the ability to win 33-14 or something. BB is a mad scientist, i hate it
 
Idk why anyone would put their money against Tom Brady and this pats organization right now, just saying.

There is playing with a chip on your shoulder and then there is this current situation

Will be interesting to see how the falcons handle the media as well....
 
nbafan88 said:
Idk why anyone would put their money against Tom Brady and this pats organization right now, just saying.

There is playing with a chip on your shoulder and then there is this current situation

Will be interesting to see how the falcons handle the media as well....
Click to expand...


I Think the Falcons can handle the media- might be close but 31-24
 
Very strange year this year in the NFL.

It it was a season in which there was no Dominant defense except for Denver.

It was a season so weak in quality teams that flawed teams like Dallas and Gbay made it far.

Raiders record? Chiefs were garbage but win tons of games. Steelers imo worst coached team
in league beat lots of teams.

Pats Falcons were ahead of most of the leAgue as these 2 offenses were consistent reliable tough to stop. No coincidence the 2 mvp candidates on these 2 teams.

Interesting to See how pats stop Mike Sanu and Tony Gabriel and Dave Freeman and Tim Campbell.


Its a fascinating matchup. As good as the Clemson bama matchup.


Brady wants that ring badly. I don't think he does anything but try to win that 5th ring.

He wants it bad to go along with his NBA ring Cy young award and NHL title lol.

Can Ryan show up? Can he do it,? Brees Wilson flacco all win first time around. Sometimes it's just in their destiny to win. The story is already written in the spiritual realms. Ryan will either taste victory or will be a runner up.

It might be a case of belief and patience for Ryan and then a title will be given to him by the spiritual realms.
 
You have to put money on Brady and Bellichick at -3 in a Super Bowl. It's a matter of principle. If you've been betting on football as long as I have you'll understand. :shake:
 
nbafan88 said:
Right now the play I feel strongest about is Blount's rush prop

as well as the falcons receiving the ball first.... if that is even available
Click to expand...

well at least there is one other person in this thread who understands blount's value

for whatever it's worth the pats won the toss and elected to receive on sunday....baffled every one but brady marched them down and scored....go figure
 
nbafan88 said:
Idk why anyone would put their money against Tom Brady and this pats organization right now, just saying.

There is playing with a chip on your shoulder and then there is this current situation

Will be interesting to see how the falcons handle the media as well....
Click to expand...

There's one really good answer to your question. Takeit's post of the pie chart sums it up perfectly.
 
I realize games from season's past have very little to do with a game from the current season, but all 6 Patriot Superbowl's have been decided by 4 pts or less. Could there be any validity to the extra week of prep taking away from Belichick's coaching superiority? Probably just an aberration.
 
dg84 said:
I realize games from season's past have very little to do with a game from the current season, but all 6 Patriot Superbowl's have been decided by 4 pts or less. Could there be any validity to the extra week of prep taking away from Belichick's coaching superiority? Probably just an aberration.
Click to expand...

Belichick's finest 2 Super Bowl moments were his first Super Bowl win over the Rams and his masterpiece the Giants over the Bills in Super Bowl 25 as Defensive Coordinator. Both those came in Super Bowls with only 1 week off but Imo he should do more than anyone with that extra week of prep.
 
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nbafan88 said:
Right now the play I feel strongest about is Blount's rush prop

as well as the falcons receiving the ball first.... if that is even available
Click to expand...

I was thinking the same thing about Blount. Belichick tried to keep the clock running vs the Rams and Antwain Smith had 18 carries for 92 yards and back in Super Bowl 25 when he was DC of the Giants he witnessed what pounding Otis Anderson against the Bills did as the Giants dominated time of possession with over 40 minutes. Anderson had 21 carries for 102 yards and the Giants had 39 carries for 172 yards.

The best defense vs the Falcons is don't let them have the ball.
 
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A week later.....Still like New England -3. Red zone D, big edge to Pats. Opponents yards per Pass Attempt, slight edge to Pats. Third down defense, edge to Pats. Third down offense, slight edge to Pats. Opponent yards per Rush, big edge to Pats.

The path for New England to win is pretty straightforward: control the lines, control the clock, keep the Falcons O off the field and out of sync, finish your drives, trade your 7's to their 3's.

The Falcons will need to win the turnover battle to gain extra possessions. Could happen, but I think the Pats path is likely. At -3 give me the likely over the could be.
 
feel like ATL can win, but it'd be huge upset and most people don't see the massive differences between these franchises
 
LANG'S SUPER BOWL PICK 2017


My 150 Dime Super Sunday move is the Patriots over the Falcons. The current line is New England -3 in Vegas and offshore. If your line is anywhere from -3 to -4 1/2 you always buy the 1/2 point down. Be sure to shop around for the best price available.

 
Sammy Meatballs said:
You are right. Allow the spirit guides to communicate with us.

How about this Lereux?

Will Tom Brady get #5 or will Matt Ryan get #1.

Whose life here deserves the win? Whose Karma will result in a loss? Is Brady karma for cheating going to burn them like bs giants?

Or does ryan have the karma to be a champion? Or is his karma making him a runner up always?

If if we can figure out spiritually which qb will be rewarded with good fortune we have our winner
Click to expand...

Karma bet of the year at +4000. I can see the headlines now, "Sanu claims Super Bowl MVP, Trump lifts muslim ban"
 
Not looking for the thread but what an interesting time for Goldman/Adelson to pull funding for the Vegas stadium
 
Lareux said:
There's one really good answer to your question. Takeit's post of the pie chart sums it up perfectly.
Click to expand...
That's a funny chart, really made me smile. But gambling should have nothing to do with your favorite team or who you hate. It should be all about stats and numbers. Funny stuff
 
Forecast as of now calls for rain during the game, and it sounds like the NFL is intent on keeping the roof open regardless. Worth keeping an eye on that if you think it will make a difference
 
IrieBlue said:
LANG'S SUPER BOWL PICK 2017


My 150 Dime Super Sunday move is the Patriots over the Falcons. The current line is New England -3 in Vegas and offshore. If your line is anywhere from -3 to -4 1/2 you always buy the 1/2 point down. Be sure to shop around for the best price available.
Click to expand...

well shit, that's not good
 
KJ said:
Forecast as of now calls for rain during the game, and it sounds like the NFL is intent on keeping the roof open regardless. Worth keeping an eye on that if you think it will make a difference
Click to expand...

Article I just read says they're making the call on Saturday. It also seems like the weather models are not in agreement. Who knows at this point.
 
Not sure I understand why the NFL would take any risk when it came to weather / conditions impacting the game.

You have a roof for a reason.
 
The New England Patriots are on the verge of completing one of the most successful betting seasons in recent NFL history. They have covered in 15 of 18 games this season, including the playoffs. Based on data from The Gold Sheet dating back to 1976, only the 1989 San Francisco 49ers have had a better ATS record in a non-strike shortened season.For them to match that 1989 49ers squad, the Patriots will need to cover a three-point spread against the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI. The Falcons had the third-best record against the spread this season at 12-6, also behind the New Orleans Saints (11-5).

The Patriots are already the fourth team to win at least 15 games against the spread in a season, joining the 1989 49ers (16), the 1985 Bears (15) and the 1981 49ers (15).

Top five:
1. 1989 San Francisco 49ers (W-L: 17-2, ATS: 16-3)
2. 2016 New England Patriots (W-L: 16-2, ATS: 15-3)
3. 2015 Minnesota Vikings (W-L: 11-6, ATS: 14-3)
4. 2004 San Diego Chargers (W-L: 12-4, ATS: 13-2-2)
5. 1985 Chicago Bears (W-L: 18-1, ATS: 15-3-1)
Click to expand...


http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18597040/nfl-new-england-best-ats-team-history
 
That's an amazing ATS record. Despite them typically finishing above .500 ATS in past years I talk myself out of betting them most every weekend, and I'm a huge fan.
 
Zeke said:
That's an amazing ATS record. Despite them typically finishing above .500 ATS in past years I talk myself out of betting them most every weekend, and I'm a huge fan.
Click to expand...

Guessing it will rectify itself next year although this league seems very favorite heavy recently
 
I'm sure it will KJ. I'm mostly pointing out the fact that I'm a dipshit & not betting them consistently every weekend as a fan. Dating back to 2003 I see only one season where they were below .500 ATS, few seasons right at .500.
 
Zeke said:
I'm sure it will KJ. I'm mostly pointing out the fact that I'm a dipshit & not betting them consistently every weekend as a fan. Dating back to 2003 I see only one season where they were below .500 ATS, few seasons right at .500.
Click to expand...

You still have the chance one more time this season. Get on with it.
 
What players, outside of Brady, from all these New England years will go to the Hall? Moss is in but he played but one year there. Seau is in but played, what, 3 years? Vinatieri is in but he's a kicker of course. Harrison? No. Others?

Pretty crazy looking at the Steelers, Niners and Cowboys teams and the #s they put in the Hall. Then comparing and contrasting to the Patriots, and what they will.
 
Richard Seymour is a longshot for the HOF....3 time 1st team All-Pro and 7 Pro Bowls though some of those were w/ the Raiders. I don't see how Rodney Harrision has any shot....Ty Law had a better career than him.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Pretty long read but the best detailed analysis I've read of each team's strengths, tendencies, how they are attacked in this game, etc. Final analysis seems a little steep but an interesting overall read.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...-preview-new-england-patriots-atlanta-falcons
Click to expand...

I like the article, thanks. :shake2:

While my first hunch was Atlanta, I have now firmly swung to Pats being the rational play, even though the line movement seems to suggest the Hawks.
 
Currently showing 66% of tickets, 63% money on the Pats


Think the bet count will easily triple by kickoff
 
The below is from 2 hours ago. I'm sure he'll play, not sure at what level. But even if Mack can stand and execute snaps, that's probably a plus.

[FONT=&amp]Super Bowl week has gone smoothly for Atlanta. Until Thursday.

Pro Bowl center Alex Mack was bothered by his injured left fibula during practice at Rice University, and coach Dan Quinn says he's "concerned" about the anchor of the offensive line heading into Sunday's title game against the New England Patriots.

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]While he's likely to play, Quinn showed a bit of doubt when he said "I'm not panicked, but I'm concerned."[/FONT]
Click to expand...
[FONT=&amp]

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2017/...nter-alex-mack-injury-heading-into-super.html[/FONT]


<section class="mod-27" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 20px 0px 0px; border-width: 1px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: rgb(227, 227, 227); border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(227, 227, 227); border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: medium; line-height: inherit; font-family: &quot;PT Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; display: inline-block; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(244, 244, 244);"></section>
 
I still kind of lean Atlanta, just very tough to go against the Pats.

Anyone considering a "keep it simple, stupid" parlay of this season's two best cash cows? Pats 15-3 ATS, Atlanta games 15-3 over.
 
Frank Costanza said:
The below is from 2 hours ago. I'm sure he'll play, not sure at what level. But even if Mack can stand and execute snaps, that's probably a plus.

[FONT=&amp]

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2017/...nter-alex-mack-injury-heading-into-super.html[/FONT]


<section class="mod-27" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 20px 0px 0px; border-width: 1px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: rgb(227, 227, 227); border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(227, 227, 227); border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: medium; line-height: inherit; font-family: &quot;PT Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; display: inline-block; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(244, 244, 244);"></section>
Click to expand...

Guess it depends on the reporter, lol. Some NFL Network guy posted an article about an hour ago that the Falcons' "coaches" (didn't specify) felt "very positive" about Mack not only playing, but "functioning at a high level".

Agree it is a big deal. Would have to be concerned with Ryan's comfort level with the back-up, even if the back-up plays the game of his life. Plus Mack's just good.
 
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