***Super Bowl LI Discussion: Atlanta vs New England***

MR FAMOUS said:
Falcons +3 6X

They're coached nearly as good as NE. They have as many different offensive weapons as NE. Lack of running game for Pats will prevent them from covering this one.
Its Ryan's year.[/QUOTE

a first year coach is nearly as good as the greatest coach in nfl history? and a running back with 18 rushing td's qualifies as no running game? and let's not forget Dion Lewis, the pats have never lost a game he has played in, pats didn't use the run game against pitt because pitt played zone and brady just picked it apart all day
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Sammy Meatballs said:
The Steelers were nothing but a CFL TEAM.

explain to me how Mike Tomlin does not know you can't play ZONE VS BRADY?



Timlin shoukd be fired fired in the locker room. Like did he even look at film?

Fire him. Terrible game plan or lack of.

Big Ben is clearly washed up. He isn't fast anymore and makes terrible decisions.
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this is the same steeler team that you said last week would beat the pats....your thought process is biased and biased thought processes lead to bad wagers in sports betting....imho
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
How about Fatigue.

Atlanta went 99 yards vs Seattle last week-they can control the ball. First team since 2010 to do that to seAttle.

pats wil tire out they won't be able to run after these Falcons.

Too toung and fast
Click to expand...

pats are one of the youngest teams in the league,and extremely well conditioned
 
I woke up this morning still laughing at the comedy of Sami sweet meatballs lol, now I'm
Still laughing at work haha
 
i think what makes this game tougher to cap is the way the two games for ne and atl played out which were all lopsided wins....atl steamed rolled both seattle and gb and while pitt and hou played ne tough for a half they both wilted in the second with brock melting down on the 4th and pitt making no in game adjustments at half and allowing brady to pick them apart....two elite offenses that will score and i didn't think the total was too high like nba did....both qb's peaking and both secondary's are suspect....atl d probably better than the numbers suggest as they looked improved against both seattle and gb....pats give up yards but not points (wicked annoying watching that fucking zone give up pass after pass) and if you take into account the missed fg and the fumble as they were driving and the sit on the ball for the last 2 you could make a case that gb could very easily have hung 31 or 38 on the falcons so sammy may be misrepresenting that awesome d led by defensive geniuses lol....so difficult to figure but lots of work to do....leaning atl right now as i can't see the pats slowing them down but i don't want to get too hung up on the last 2 games and i don't want to underestimate bill's ability to slow matty ice down....definitely am leaning over as i see both teams hanging 31-45 points
 
I understand we all saw Brown look pretty average last night and that is hard to make him look that way but I think it would be a mistake to think that covering him and covering Julio are similar tasks. I saw Brown getting bullied off the line a few times and knocked down. I've watched a lot of games Julio has played over past 8 or so years and I can't remember ever seeing a player(s) big boy him physically. So all of that to say I think if you are capping this thinking Julio won't be a factor, I would reconsider. Secondly, I agree with Sam and others that even if he were to be shut down there are still 8 other guys that have proven to be legit playmakers and Ryan is so dialed in and finding them. I personally haven't come away impressed at all with Pats pass defense when I've seen them this year, run defense on the other hand they are solid, IMO.
 
guaranteeed said:
Can we stop pretending pats are a great defense

Their pass defense was 23rd in dvoa

It's two very good offenses
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Yes. And their D had the easiest schedule of any team. I know KJ (i think) put up the #1 scoring D stat and how the SB winner has had a top 5 scoring D quite often, but I kind of discredit that a bit, bc of the horrible O's they have faced. The Pats D is above average defense, not great or even very good. Atl can eat it alive. That said you have a great, great coach in New England that will come up with something.


Also read a stat about Big Bens demise lately...and in hindsight, I should have had the Pats to win not tied up w other things. So I don't want to put too much stock in what the Pats D has done so far.


I am leaning hard to the Falcons. I do not like the Patriots, I live in CT and have to hear about them all the time and am tired of seeing them in the SB (except when they play my giants). "Familiarity breeds contempt", kind of thing. SO I am a hater, but I also have great deal of respect to the coach, qb, and what they consistently do. BUt I still think Atl has too much for the PAts. Quinn is not on Beli's level, but I've been somewhat impressed by him and am fairly confident he will have them prepared.

Atl's D shutout a red hot Rodgers in the 1st half, lets not forget that.

Atl has the advantage in talent all over. BUt Belli and that whining Qb are really good and you can never count them out. Hoping for +4.5....
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
I was trying to buy a property. With the market stale I found a distressed seller- The guy needed to sell and I wanted to really leverage his desperation into getting the property at my price.
HOWEVER MATT RYAN fucked the whole deal up. He was terrible and was trying to get a deal done at any cost so he could collect his Commission.

Because of his greed I didn't get the property because Matt Ryan was playing games.
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Sammy, is it possible that Matt Ryan is now going to repay you in the SB for ruining what seemed like a great deal for you? Karmically, this could be where he atones for his wrongdoing to you and your real estate venture.
 
Team total for the Falcons is 27.5...I like it.

they scored below 28 3 times this year. All on the Road. @Den (23 pts), @Sea (26 pts), and @Phila (24)...


granted, the Pats have allowed only one team to hit 28 (vs Sea) this year, but sweet lord they have had it easy this year. Look at their last 8 games this year. The best Offense they faced was the dolphins.
 
Looks like 27 of the 50 MVPs have been QBs and only 6 WRs. If you think Julio is going to have a monster game the +1550 might be worth a shot. If you look at the last two games Hogan has had the +3100 might be worth a flyer.
 
i like that flyer on julio....guy is a total stud and i think he chews pats secondary up....as far as hogan goes i am kicking myself for not propping him yesterday, he is a legitimate down field threat and replaces gronk in that regard (thank god)...bill rarely uses the same guy two games in a row as a go to guy and atl run d is suspect enough that i think they may come out with a pretty heavy dose of blount and lewis but you never know with the pats, they have proven me wrong more times than not
 
The Chris Hogan story is amazing.

(SIAP)
Career receptions in college, at Monmouth: 12.
Receptions in yesterday's AFC championship game: 9.
 
Frank Costanza said:
The Chris Hogan story is amazing.

(SIAP)
Career receptions in college, at Monmouth: 12.
Receptions in yesterday's AFC championship game: 9.
Click to expand...

And if you look at Edelman's stats from Kent State....1 career reception for 11 yards. Albeit he was a QB...but to convert a QB into the force that basically filled the Wes Welker slot role with no turbulence is unheard of.

What they do up there is truly amazing. I hate this team more than any other in the league. But it's been 15 years and this offense has trained every Tom, Dick and Harry to run routes that are near flawless most of the time. It is absolutely mind blowing to me. How many 9 yard catches have you seen Welker or Edelman get on a 3rd and 8? Just sick how they've turned this offense into a machine.
 
Big Ten's leader in this year's Super Bowl players is mighty Rutgers with 10.
 
Yeah Hogan is a complete physical mismatch for defenders.

Standing a shade over 6'5 225 lbs he is extremely physical and has a long GAZELLE like stride. Of course being the son of Hulk Hogan DOESENT hurt either-
Will interesting to see HOGAN MATCH up with Deoin TURBO Jones- Deoin might need to use his NOS (vin Diesel style) to counter Hogans deep speed-

Edelmen- He's the trickiest of route runners- Is this man a Groundhog? Does he start out running his route UNDERGROUND and then Pop up through the Turf right in front of Unsuspecting linebackers?
Its as if the defense has no idea what route he is going to run-
 
I really like how Atlanta used the bunch formations yesterday.

If you noticed Julio Jones lined up inside a lot and in bunch formations. You can't double Julio when he is lined up inside in bunch. Julio was unstoppable running the crossing routes. No db can cover him because he is too tall and fast with a long reach. Marvin Butler is a feisty corner. A 5'10 hyper corner. Nobody 5'10 can handle Julio.

Julio is twice the receiver Brown is. He's bigger faster stronger period. Brown was 6 th round. Julio was top 8 pick.

Pats are are going to face the best team all season.
 
Memo to defensive coordinators?

Is there any game plan that can force Edelmen deep?

I mean sit on his short 8-10 yard hook routes that he loves and jump all over that route. Play him press. Double him. Force that guy Edelmen to make 30/40 yard catches. Brady deep ball is average. They don't like going deep unless it's wide open.

If I am defense I crowd and smother Edelmen and force him deep. Make him beat you deep.

if you don't make him go deep he will just hook all game long and they will score anyways.

You must take something away in the passing game.

The loss of The GRINK should be huge as defenses can key in Edelmen. However he is catching more passes now. Like if you take Edelmrn away you win the game.
 
Run game won't be an issue

Blount will quickly pack it in as he always does in big games. Started vs Boise state when he lost his cool and attacked everyone - Blount is a front running back. They only use him once they build a lead.

If if they are trailing you won't see Blount touch the football.
 
If you're Belichick do you try to shut down Julio or do you let Julio get his and try to shut down the lesser components? What's interesting to me is if you look at Atlanta's losses this year, Julio put up much bigger numbers than in their wins:

5 losses: 7.4 catches per game, 125.4 ypg (4 out of 5 they scored less than 30)
9 wins: 5.1 catches per game, 86.9 ypg (1 out of 9 they scored less than 30)

And 1 of those wins included that ridiculous 12 catch, 300 yard game vs. Carolina. Have to wonder if Belichek might think its better to play Julio straight and focus on shutting down the run game, Sanu and those dumpoffs to the backs. I think that's a doable task.

Offensively I've seen little that would make me believe Brady can't get to 30+ against the Bird's D. Rodgers, Brees (twice), Rivers, Cam and Jameis all hung 30+, Carr had 28. Smith had 27. Wilson 26. They'll surrender points. Probably not a rout since New England doesn't rout anyone in the Bowl, but I'd lay 3.
 
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guaranteeed said:
Can we stop pretending pats are a great defense

Their pass defense was 23rd in dvoa

It's two very good offenses
Click to expand...

The Patriots ranked 10th in pass defense DVOA this year(non adjusted or what actually happened on the field), in passing rating allowed they finished 8th.

The Falcons would have the worst defense by DVOA in the database that goes back to 1989 and quite frankly I'm pretty sure it would be the worst defense to ever win a Super Bowl.

Also the Falcons scored a season low of 15 points vs the Eagles, I saw somewhere earlier in this thread that it said 24.

The Patriots allowed an average of 89 per game rushing...The Falsons had 6 games this season in which they rushed for 89 or less yards and were 3-3 in those games.
 
Falcons defense isn't going to win this game for Atlanta-


Much like the Rams beat the Titans it was with their offense they were able to out score everyone and the defense would do enough.

Although its its college I feel this Atlanta team is a Mirror image of Clemson.


Clemson is Atlanta- Mike Williams is Julio Jones. Artavois Scott and Deoin Cain are Sanu and Gabriel.

Freeman is Gallman. Matt Ryan is Deshaun 2.0-

clemson has Legget who is Tevin Campbell. Presents matchup issues.


At end of the day Clemson defense gave up tons of points but they still won it all. It was their offense that proved better than the best defense in the league.
 
Atlanta runs a system very similar to Patriots.

They have multiple 3 receiver sets with backs and tight ends active. Matt Ryan is essentially playing chess. They give you offensive formations that are nearly impossible to stop. The only way to stop them is to get pressure on Ryan. If you can't they have too many options which includes a quick dump off to freeman and Campbell who are very fast.

BILL BELLICHEK is just a coach. Sure he can prepare a defense to shut down Osweiller and a faded out Ben Burger/

how many teams shut down Osweiller? How many shut down Ben Burger in the road? All good defenses handled Houston and Pittsburgh easy-


last suierbowl in Houston. Pats likely cheated by spying. They only win by a late fgoal vs panthers. If I remember correct they had no answers for Steve Smith and Mhusin Mohammed.


thid is a fascinating matchup.

Defense usually beats offense. However 2 Exceptions.



OFFENSE IS A CLEMSON RAMS STYLE OFFENSE THAT IS TOO GOOD

THE DEFENSE (pats) is not DONINANT ENOUGH. ITS NOT LIKE THESE PATS ARE DENVER OR SEATTLE FROM YEARS past.
 
ArizonaKid said:
The Patriots ranked 10th in pass defense DVOA this year(non adjusted or what actually happened on the field), in passing rating allowed they finished 8th.

The Falcons would have the worst defense by DVOA in the database that goes back to 1989 and quite frankly I'm pretty sure it would be the worst defense to ever win a Super Bowl.

Also the Falcons scored a season low of 15 points vs the Eagles, I saw somewhere earlier in this thread that it said 24.

The Patriots allowed an average of 89 per game rushing...The Falsons had 6 games this season in which they rushed for 89 or less yards and were 3-3 in those games.
Click to expand...

I would think the weighted ranking of 23rd would be much more relevant as it takes away the early season games and is a measure of how a team is playing right now. On the other hand the Falcons would definitely be one of the worst (if not the worst) in DVOA history to win. They remind me of my good old 2003 Chiefs. If NE can punch them in the mouth early and force some punts, they are in trouble.
 
If I'm atkanta I'm crowding the middle of the field bigtime.

I'm sending little pressure off the edges and I'm focussing on rushing right up the middle to get Brady off his spot. Also then they can't run the Edelmdn hook pattern that seems to work at a 100% rate.

Take the middle short away from Brady and force him to beat you with Makcom Mitchell Michael Floyd and Bennet outside.

I I sit on short routes. I attack interior of pats line. Have to get pressure on Brady here. Vic Beasley half brother of Cole can do it with Turbo Jones.
 
ArizonaKid said:
The Patriots ranked 10th in pass defense DVOA this year(non adjusted or what actually happened on the field), in passing rating allowed they finished 8th.

The Falcons would have the worst defense by DVOA in the database that goes back to 1989 and quite frankly I'm pretty sure it would be the worst defense to ever win a Super Bowl.

Also the Falcons scored a season low of 15 points vs the Eagles, I saw somewhere earlier in this thread that it said 24.

The Patriots allowed an average of 89 per game rushing...The Falsons had 6 games this season in which they rushed for 89 or less yards and were 3-3 in those games.
Click to expand...

the best passing offenses they faced in the regular season were

Steelers (Ben was out) - 5th
Arizona - 9th
Seattle - 10th
Baltimore - 12th
Cincinatti - 15th

so essentially 4 out of 16 games against teams in the top half of the league in passing

they got to go against the 32nd, 31st, 30th (twice), 28th, 27th and 26th (twice for both) passing offenses, so actual rankings on their pass defense dont tell the real story, which is why FO does weighted rankings

their run defense is very stout though thats true

not trying to say they are a bad squad, but based on stats their pass defense is something the Falcons should target, doesn't mean they dont win or that Bellichek can't slow it down
 
Gandolf said:
If you're Belichek do you try to shut down Julio or do you let Julio get his and try to shut down the lesser components? What's interesting to me is if you look at Atlanta's losses this year, Julio put up much bigger numbers than in their wins:

5 losses: 7.4 catches per game, 125.4 ypg (4 out of 5 they scored less than 30)
9 wins: 5.1 catches per game, 86.9 ypg (1 out of 9 they scored less than 30)

And 1 of those wins included that ridiculous 12 catch, 300 yard game vs. Carolina. Have to wonder if Belichek might think its better to play Julio straight and focus on shutting down the run game, Sanu and those dumpoffs to the backs. I think that's a doable task.

Offensively I've seen little that would make me believe Brady can't get to 30+ against the Bird's D. Rodgers, Brees (twice), Rivers, Cam and Jameis all hung 30+, Carr had 28. Smith had 27. Wilson 26. They'll surrender points. Probably not a rout since New England doesn't rout anyone in the Bowl, but I'd lay 3.
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I mentioned it earlier, the size discrepancy between Julio and the CB's/safeties for NE is about 5 inches..even if you double up on him he'll be ale to get his....

The thing i've learned, from an eye test, is that the pats don't mind giving up yards I guess a bend but don't break mentality but they'll give them the cushion and stop you short of the first and they can live with that it seems.

So I do agree they'll let him have his, and make you beat them with their secondary options. Sort of like AB and Rogers yesterday. I'm just wondering how that works with Julio who has a very clear advantage over that secondary
 
Julio Jones cannot be covered.

Much like Mike Williams doninated Bama you will see the same here.

How do you cover a sure handed 6'3 225, 4.4 big physical long armed guy?

You can't cover him. He is too dominant. Ryan knows this.

Its a players game period - plenty of receivers have made huge huge plays vs pats in the big game v

julio will dominate them.

Marvin Butler will get taken to the woodshed
 
Julio is clearly the top receiver in the game.

However the second best receiver is Edelmen. He gets no praise.

He is much harder to stop than any other receiver in the game. He won that suoerbowl vs Seattle by snagging the game winner and numerous catches including a 3rd and 17.

Edelmen is quick but his intelligence must be at least triple of any NFL defender. He goes to the same spots on must plays and defenders are always one step behind him. Exception of Denver who roughed him up.


Edrlmen is twice the receiver Antonio brown is.
 
Teams that beat Brady aren't afraid of him. Denver says bring it on and attacks Brady.

if you sit back in a passive zone or a bend but don't break mentality you will lose 100000000000000% to THOMAS BRADY.
 
"Started vs Boise St. when he lost his cool and attacked everyone."

Sammy's got his mojo back.
 
Capaholic said:
I would think the weighted ranking of 23rd would be much more relevant as it takes away the early season games and is a measure of how a team is playing right now. On the other hand the Falcons would definitely be one of the worst (if not the worst) in DVOA history to win. They remind me of my good old 2003 Chiefs. If NE can punch them in the mouth early and force some punts, they are in trouble.
Click to expand...


What you are referring to is weighted DVOA, which weighs early season results less and recent games more which I agree is a more accurate indicator. I'm referring to DVOA non adjusted, which takes out any adjustments to the DVOA formula made for strength of schedule and number of fumbles and measures what actually occurred on the field.

New England also finished #1 in overall (offense,defense,special teams) DVOA while Atlanta finished #3.

New England's Defense was also excellent in the red zone, in 44 trips to the red zone the Patriots only gave up 22 TDs or 50%. Atlanta was worst in the league in red zone defense giving up a TD 72% of the time.
 
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B.A.R. said:
If I woulda told ya 5 months ago we'd be sitting here on a Sunday night talking Super Bowl with Sammy and Mr. Famous would you have believed me??
Click to expand...

nope

KJ said:
I'd have jumped off the balcony twice
Click to expand...

not too late

chancedog said:
Is this what it will be like for 2 weeks
Click to expand...

CTG has sold its soul

Tito said:
Team total for the Falcons is 27.5...I like it.

they scored below 28 3 times this year. All on the Road. @Den (23 pts), @Sea (26 pts), and @Phila (24)...


granted, the Pats have allowed only one team to hit 28 (vs Sea) this year, but sweet lord they have had it easy this year. Look at their last 8 games this year. The best Offense they faced was the dolphins.
Click to expand...

c'mon now
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
The early suierbowls Bellichek cheated by videotaping them.

Anyone remember vs the Rams when Otis Smith made that pick 6 vs Warner. Yeah like they didn't see that play when they were recording the Rams.

pats are total bs. Cheaters.
Click to expand...
Loved all your post & tended to agree....now you're Fonzi jumping a shark (trolling I know) :rofl:
 
guaranteeed said:
Even if belichek does what he does best and takes out the biggest threat, Julio, this offense was without him for four games basically this year and didn't skip a beat

Sanu, Gabriel, Coleman and Freeman all big play weapons

I don't know how you keep them under 30

Don't know if pats keep up and neither defense is great
Click to expand...

Going to be an issue for the Pats defense...



guaranteeed said:
Can we stop pretending pats are a great defense

Their pass defense was 23rd in dvoa

It's two very good offenses
Click to expand...

Don't think dvoa weighs td's against when you are winning by 21+ in the 4th qtr and the other team is just chucking........... your top statement has validity... I like their tt over..
 
Right now the play I feel strongest about is Blount's rush prop

as well as the falcons receiving the ball first.... if that is even available
 
seems like everyone differs in the NFL and we know for sure that BB will, does Quinn always take the ball or something?
 
Just typed a long post and hell it disappeared. So here is short version (won both games & 2H yesterday fwiw)

Took Over 58 -120 right away. I think winner of game gets to 31 or more. Could see a 28-28 tie to OT

Really think ATL gets to 30. As I said last week, this is not your old ATL. Weapons all over, playing great, hungry, talented & well coached. Quinn & Shannahan clearly very good. Reliant a lot like GA Dome environmentally or similar enough. Houston is ez travel and similar enough town to ATL. Want to watch line movement...if I bet ATL will take ML as well. I have a +750 future on them I made Jan 2nd (had a +800 on Pitt too, damnit). Wish I had team total available to me now which is evidently 27.5 b/c that would be my largest bet. Ben actually had open receivers with not as many weapons as ATL.

Hard to go agst Brady & Belichick and kinda masochistic to do so. They won here in 2004 at Reliant. Fans were great and were here in droves. So, there is that. The thing with Brady/Belichick they seem to do what needs to be done to win. Hogan was stealth weapon yesterday and he may get zero targets in SB...has to be hell to prepare for. Pats D is good, not great....but make you drive. To me it always appears Pats beat you slowly in a torture fashion - they leave you thinking you had a chance but demoralized when you totally defeated.

So, on OVER. Hope to be on ATL TT OVER at 28 or better. But, while want to take ATL may end up sitting out or on Pats...waiting on Sammy Meatballs to make up his mind.
 
Bones, you lose a lot of posts. What are you banging away on over there, the computer from Wargames?
 
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