Super Bowl discussion
- Thread starter Joe Public
- Start date
takeit
THE Wife
I'm sure you'll go next year with it being in your home town (and the weather will be better).
I said to mrtake tonight that I don't want to drink too much and forget the game.
We're staying right near the stadium - worth it to go to Manhattan during the day?
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Defense wasn't too stout in going 3-21 down to the Pats, and coughing up 34 total points in that game. And as good as the D undoubtedly was (easily the best Peyton's had in the playoffs), it's not like it was the Ravens D of 2001 that could have had almost any QB slotted in behind it and a SB title was a given.
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
"Before we start to talk about Wong teasers we need to spend a couple of minutes talking about key numbers. In the NFL there are margins of victory that are more common than others. The most common margin of victory is three points. That makes sense - think of how many games are won by a field goal. About 15 percent of games are decided by this margin. The second most common is seven points - a touchdown - which occurs about seven percent of the time. Because they are so common the three and the seven are called key numbers. There are other key numbers as well - 10, four, one, and 14 for example - but three and seven are the most significant ones, and the important ones for this discussion.
A teaser bet is similar to a parlay bet - a bet in which you need to win two or more games in order to get a payoff. The difference between a parlay and a teaser is that in a parlay you are betting that teams will cover the posted point spread, while in a teaser you are able to adjust that spread. Different types of teasers are available, but the typical one, and the one we are looking at here, is a six-point teaser. If, for example, a point spread is -10 in a game, then if you were to be the favorite in a teaser the spread would be -4. If you were to bet on the underdog the spread would be +16. Teasers can be on lines or totals, and work in the same way in both cases. The payout for teasers is fixed - not dependent upon the spread of the games involved - though they change regularly depending upon how well the bets are doing at a given time and the competition between books. A two-team teaser, for example, can pay anywhere from +100 (though it's unlikely that you will find that anymore) to -130.
The name Wong teaser originates because the concept was popularized in the book Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. It can alternately be seen by other names including a basic strategy teaser. A Wong teaser is a two-game teaser in which teasing the spread moves it through the two key numbers of three and seven. In other words, it's a teaser involving favorites of between 7.5 and 8.5 or underdogs of between 1.5 and 2.5. If a line is reasonably accurate then you can assume about a 50 percent chance of either team covering. If the odds were -110 then you need to win about 52.4 percent of your bets to break even. To win 52.4 percent of your teasers you need to be able to win the individual games approximately 72.5 percent of the time. Because games end up being decided by three and seven more than 22 percent of the time, teasing through these two numbers increases the chances of covering a spread from about 50 percent to 72 percent or more (It's actually better than that because you are also covering the numbers four, five and six, and games can also finish with those margins as well). Over the long term, then, Wong teasers are one of the few places in betting where there is a positive expectation. In other words, Wong teasers are very good for your bankroll.
Before you get too excited, though, there are a few issues that have made it much harder to ride the gravy train. First, books have increased the price of teasers - especially two team teasers - in defense of these situations. When Wong first wrote about these teasers it was easy to find a price of +100 for two team teasers. Now -120 is the most common price in Las Vegas, and -130 isn't unheard of. The extra cost of making the bets makes it much more difficult to earn a long-term profit, and even if you can - which is still possible in theory at -120 - the return on investment is low enough to make it unattractive in most cases. Additionally, some books won't even accept two-game teasers from time to time if they feel the bet isn't in their interest.
Beyond just the prices, books have responded to this situation by making it harder to find suitable situations. Spreads of 7.5-8.5 or 1.5-2.5 aren't nearly as common as they used to be, and that means that opportunities to make these bets aren't as apparent as they once were. They can still be found, but it requires an attentive bettor who is willing to jump on a line as soon as it appears because it isn't likely to stay for long.
Another way that online books have sought to counter Wong teasers is by changing the tie rules with two-game teasers. Traditionally, a teaser in which one team lost and one team pushed would be an overall push and the bettor would get their money refunded. Some online sportsbooks have quietly changed that rule so that now a loss and a push results in an overall loss. That difference alone, though it doesn't seem that significant, can be the difference between long-term profitability and long-term losses with Wong teasers."
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
My local is dealing Denv-3 & says he is getting crushed with denv action
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
If they work for the person placing the bets what do the #'s matter??? I th eextra points are getting you the $$$ bet more$$
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
Agree on teasers in the NFL, aplous...they're a gold mine in the NFL with the parity of the league.
Spurrier's Brain
Fun ‘n’ Gun
One need not be a "hater" to realize he only has one Super Bowl win. Yes, he finally beat the Pats that year. It's my suggestion that Seattle poses a larger threat than the Bears.
wizardofodd
Resident Newlywed
A guy who has played less snaps than games seattle has played? I dont get the Percy love at all. On top of that, even if he has practiced, I dont think he has the game time experience with the Seahawks and dont even know how the chemistry is. Just my 2 cents on Percy.
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
I think I saw Percy has played somewhere around 40 snaps on the season...to me, he doesn't even have to touch the ball to be a factor. Put him in motion, safety follows him. With him on the field the defense will have to account for him. He makes Marshawn a lot more valuable than he already is, imo.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
I don't ever do teasers really, but I of course have always seen this rule
Is it essentially because the spread is so low that the odds of either team getting the out right make it a dangerous play?
Are there numbers to support it etc?
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
Refer to post #206
takeit
THE Wife
one hit and he's done though
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
:thinking:
Says the Broncos fan who will be in attendance...cheering on the Broncos.
opcorn:
takeit
THE Wife
:thinking:
Says the Broncos fan who will be in attendance...cheering on the Broncos.
yes, yes, and yes :dancing:
L
Lareux
Guest
That's pretty much the reason right there Twinkie. There's no reason to cross the zero given the low spread to begin with, and you essentially need an outright victory or a loss by a few points or less to get the win. You're better off just betting that game straight at that point and not putting it in a teaser.
L
Lareux
Guest
It's a good post about Wong teasers, but nothing in there talks about crossing the zero in a teaser, which is what Twinkie was asking about.
:shake:
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
L
Lareux
Guest
Although I've just done some quick research on this teasing across zero topic, and that may be a myth as well. I'll have to do some more in-depth research, but I've found a guy who has tracked teasers at each point spread and he insists (and his #s back it up) that it is a complete myth. His contention is actually that the most profitable 6 point teasers are those that consist of a favorite of 3.5 or less teased across the zero. His research is from 2009 though, so like I said, I'll have to look into it some more when I have the time.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Chinese astrologers laying down the dosh on the Seahawks.
people born in the Year of the Horse should [...] be careful of dealing with the boss
Guess Fox should be careful about how he deals with the Sheriff in the big game, then.
people born in the Year of the Horse should [...] be careful of dealing with the boss
Guess Fox should be careful about how he deals with the Sheriff in the big game, then.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
Denver allow 2.5 touchdowns per game on average since 2012. They allow 2.8 per game this year alone. They give up 6 more points per game away (27) on average than they do at home (21) this year. Peyton is 3-6 away from home in the playoffs with 8 TD and 11 INT. In those nine games away from home in the playoffs, Peyton's offense averaged 16.6 points per game. Add in the fact that Seattle averages 30 points per game versus the AFC since Russ took the wheel and that's a beat down. Peyton hasn't won a playoff game away from home since the Super Bowl in 2007.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
Denver allowed 3 or more touchdowns in half their games this season.
L
Lareux
Guest
He's played 2 games away from home since then...and one of them was a SB (and the other was an OT loss to SD). Let's not act as if he's been an epic failure based on that creative wording.
takeit
THE Wife
FF on Seahawks. This game is a true battle.
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
No no no... FF on nothing yet. The Seahawks play was from 2 weeks ago vs the 49ers.
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
I hope you're right, take! 
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
ugh
cogenman
Raider Nation for Life
I've been holding out for Seattle to get 3 points, and while doing it, I've started to question my pick. The main reason is you got Russell Wilson on Seattle and Peyton Manning on Denver leading their teams and that is a major mismatch. You got a future hall of famer on one side, and a second year QB on the other. RW will make mistakes. I know it's not just about the QB's, it's a team sport and it involves defenses, special teams, etc but the glaring mismatch is at QB. I wish they'd just play the game. I hate this 2 weeks off. ughhh. Will still take Seattle most likely as I usually like to take my initial lean.
Toronto_Mike
Scent of a Woman
Since 1999, when a league MVP plays a Superbowl they are 1-6.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Wong's are probably the best long term sports betting "system" going
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
When Bruno Mars and the Red Hot Chili Peppers take the field at MetLife Stadium on Sunday for the hotly anticipated Super Bowl XLVIII halftime show, organizers urge the crowd to stay in their seats and use their heads — literally.
“We are essentially creating the largest ever LED screen in the stadium,” said Ricky Kirshner, whose New York-based company Touchdown Entertainment tackles the halftime bonanza from staging, lighting, sound production and also televising.
“Everyone will get a wool hat with a built in LED screen in their warming package under their seat cushion. We’re asking for audience participation. People, please don’t leave your seat.”
The technologically advanced fashion will result in 800,000 pixels, turning the stadium into one of the biggest LED screens ever made.
“It will take up the entire stadium. It’s the first time we’ve done anything like this. If you were to look at the Grammys where there’s a backdrop, this extends that backdrop to the entire stadium,” said Kirshner, whose company has produced the last seven Super Bowl halftime spectaculars.
The concert’s logistics, which have been in gestation since September, have very little room for error.
From the time the Seahawks and Broncos hit the locker room, Kirshner’s crew has eight minutes to set up for an action-packed 12-minute musical extravaganza. After the last note is played, there’s seven minutes on the clock to dismantle the stage and get the field ready for the third quarter.
The concert — including performers, volunteers and crews — will require about 3,000 people to carry out.
With an open air stadium, Kirshner said there are many tweaks that need to be made as opposed to putting on a show of this proportion in a dome.
“There aren’t the rigging points. But on the positive side, we can produce a much more exciting pyrotechnic show,” he said, adding that every stadium has its challenges.
“No one builds a stadium for us to do a halftime show. It’s very annoying. It would be much easier if they would ask us what we need,” he joked.
Though the cold weather and storm potential has been a source of panic for the fans and a constant story line for the media, Kirshner isn’t logging into the Weather Channel every five minutes.
After all, his first was Super Bowl XLI in Miami, where Prince performed in the pouring rain.
“Everyone said, ‘It has never rained at a Super Bowl, don’t worry about it.’ And then of course it poured that day. I don’t believe in watching the forecast anymore. We do many outdoor events. It always seems that if you watch the weather report you will drive yourself crazy, so you just have to do your show and be prepared,” said Kirshner, who promised the same show rain or shine.
Along with the Meadowlands’ blistering cold and whipping winds, the show will also feature local talent.
Producers have enlisted some lucky New Jersey school marching bands from South Brunswick High School, Nutley, Bergenfield, Morris Knolls and Roxbury.
“They won’t be used as traditional marching bands,” Kirshner said. “They are part of the light show. Our team that works with marching bands works with the Olympics and they’re used to recruiting those kids. It’s a whole operation just dealing with 500 marching bands kids. You have to feed them, bus them, move them, get them into rehearsals.”
Kirshner, who was raised in New Jersey and lives in Manhattan, said it’s great to be on his home turf, but he concedes there’s not much time for fun and games, regardless of the location.
“I think we’re so focused on what we do. It’s not glamorous,” Kirshner said. “We never get out to the parties, so it’s not like we experience the Super Bowl feeling all week.”
Beyond the bones of the show, Kirshner, who spent last week in Los Angeles rehearsing, is mostly mum, dropping one hint. “It’s probably more rock music than we’ve had in the past.”
“We are essentially creating the largest ever LED screen in the stadium,” said Ricky Kirshner, whose New York-based company Touchdown Entertainment tackles the halftime bonanza from staging, lighting, sound production and also televising.
“Everyone will get a wool hat with a built in LED screen in their warming package under their seat cushion. We’re asking for audience participation. People, please don’t leave your seat.”
The technologically advanced fashion will result in 800,000 pixels, turning the stadium into one of the biggest LED screens ever made.
“It will take up the entire stadium. It’s the first time we’ve done anything like this. If you were to look at the Grammys where there’s a backdrop, this extends that backdrop to the entire stadium,” said Kirshner, whose company has produced the last seven Super Bowl halftime spectaculars.
The concert’s logistics, which have been in gestation since September, have very little room for error.
From the time the Seahawks and Broncos hit the locker room, Kirshner’s crew has eight minutes to set up for an action-packed 12-minute musical extravaganza. After the last note is played, there’s seven minutes on the clock to dismantle the stage and get the field ready for the third quarter.
The concert — including performers, volunteers and crews — will require about 3,000 people to carry out.
With an open air stadium, Kirshner said there are many tweaks that need to be made as opposed to putting on a show of this proportion in a dome.
“There aren’t the rigging points. But on the positive side, we can produce a much more exciting pyrotechnic show,” he said, adding that every stadium has its challenges.
“No one builds a stadium for us to do a halftime show. It’s very annoying. It would be much easier if they would ask us what we need,” he joked.
Though the cold weather and storm potential has been a source of panic for the fans and a constant story line for the media, Kirshner isn’t logging into the Weather Channel every five minutes.
After all, his first was Super Bowl XLI in Miami, where Prince performed in the pouring rain.
“Everyone said, ‘It has never rained at a Super Bowl, don’t worry about it.’ And then of course it poured that day. I don’t believe in watching the forecast anymore. We do many outdoor events. It always seems that if you watch the weather report you will drive yourself crazy, so you just have to do your show and be prepared,” said Kirshner, who promised the same show rain or shine.
Along with the Meadowlands’ blistering cold and whipping winds, the show will also feature local talent.
Producers have enlisted some lucky New Jersey school marching bands from South Brunswick High School, Nutley, Bergenfield, Morris Knolls and Roxbury.
“They won’t be used as traditional marching bands,” Kirshner said. “They are part of the light show. Our team that works with marching bands works with the Olympics and they’re used to recruiting those kids. It’s a whole operation just dealing with 500 marching bands kids. You have to feed them, bus them, move them, get them into rehearsals.”
Kirshner, who was raised in New Jersey and lives in Manhattan, said it’s great to be on his home turf, but he concedes there’s not much time for fun and games, regardless of the location.
“I think we’re so focused on what we do. It’s not glamorous,” Kirshner said. “We never get out to the parties, so it’s not like we experience the Super Bowl feeling all week.”
Beyond the bones of the show, Kirshner, who spent last week in Los Angeles rehearsing, is mostly mum, dropping one hint. “It’s probably more rock music than we’ve had in the past.”
BJPLAYER
Pretty much a regular
BJPLAYER
Pretty much a regular
Manhattan is awesome…i'm 6-7 times a year
BJPLAYER
Pretty much a regular
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
I don't care what consensus #s are being put out there... I have never seen so much love for one side of a game (that is supposed to be 70/30) as I see on Seattle everywhere. From the people on TV to every capping site. This one is truly 50/50 in terms of bet support IMO.
The weather IMO is the biggest story in SB history prior to snap. If winds were over 10 mph and it was under 20 degrees... there was NO way the Broncos could win this game. I would have laid up to 3 with Seattle. With 40, no wind, and potentially some rain, it is truly a 7-10 point swing. Denver goes from being incapable of moving the ball to perfect conditions to do so. Look at Seattle 1h vs. Saints vs. 2h. The wind stopped and the Hawks got lit up.
Also, the Seahawks have not played well on the road once this season. Everytime when they played a team with a pulse they escaped or lost. Outplayed @ Colts, Texans, Panthers, Rams, 49ers. Solid performance defensively at Arizona and NYG.
I would have been livid had I locked in on Seattle to see the weather open up like this. Truly the biggest swing I can remember of it favoring one team vs. another.
Also - Denver has been shutting down the run all post season and Wilson has been borderline terrible for 2 months.
Just playing the advocate here to all the Seattle love. I would have been with you guys for 5 times my normal 10x large bet. Now, I am not so sure.
The weather IMO is the biggest story in SB history prior to snap. If winds were over 10 mph and it was under 20 degrees... there was NO way the Broncos could win this game. I would have laid up to 3 with Seattle. With 40, no wind, and potentially some rain, it is truly a 7-10 point swing. Denver goes from being incapable of moving the ball to perfect conditions to do so. Look at Seattle 1h vs. Saints vs. 2h. The wind stopped and the Hawks got lit up.
Also, the Seahawks have not played well on the road once this season. Everytime when they played a team with a pulse they escaped or lost. Outplayed @ Colts, Texans, Panthers, Rams, 49ers. Solid performance defensively at Arizona and NYG.
I would have been livid had I locked in on Seattle to see the weather open up like this. Truly the biggest swing I can remember of it favoring one team vs. another.
Also - Denver has been shutting down the run all post season and Wilson has been borderline terrible for 2 months.
Just playing the advocate here to all the Seattle love. I would have been with you guys for 5 times my normal 10x large bet. Now, I am not so sure.
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
well i love that this is the general perception
