SoonerBS' Week #2 Plays and Discussion




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SoonerBS

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Week #1: 11-7-1 (Miami/FSU UNDER 39.5 Pending)

Guys, I have three days this week before I have to leave on a work related seminar, so I have been doing some serious capping all last night and this morning. I have locked in some games already and am thinking about plays on some other games. I'll give you some brief thoughts on these games, but extensive write-ups will have to be put on hold because of time constraints.

Texas/tOSU OVER 49 -- This is likely the only TOTAL I will play this week after doing very well on my UNDERS last week (5-2 with 1 Pending). The reason being I have limited time and nothing really stood out that I like for this week in way of TOTALS other than this game. This is a game that has very good reasons to support both sides. Cappers are split in our forums here with some supporting the tOSU side and others supporting Texas. To me, this game is a coin-flip for sides. BUT, I do like the fact that both teams have great potential on the offensive side of the ball. This game is different than last year's game because of that. tOSU's defense is weaker, but they have probably the best offense in college football. Texas' offense is good and their defense is good as well. I can't justify a side in this game, but I like the potential for a lot of points this year.

Texas Tech -6.5 -- I can't believe I get a chance to play a powerful Texas Tech team against a team that will likely be 3rd or lower in CUSA for less than a TD. I watched the UTEP game last week against SDSU and even though the Miners won it 34-27, they were dominted by SDSU the entire game. Aztecs had 22 first downs to Miner's 12; they had 141 more total yards, SDSU QBs threw 12-16 and 12-14 respectively; and the Miners had 4 turnovers to Aztecs' 3. Palmer showed his usual inconsistency by going 19/28 for 3 TDs, but throwing 4 interceptions in the process. What is he liable to do against one of the best defensive units Texas Tech has had under Leach -- a defensive unit that held SMU to only 189 total yards Saturday? And, how did Harrell do in his first start for Tech? He went 34-49 for 342 yards and 5 TDs and 1 interception! In all, Tech racked up 501 total yards in their route of the Mustangs Saturday. I love this quote by Leach Saturday about Harrell's performance: "He threw one bonehead ball and there was about a series and a half where I called some bad plays and he couldn't overcome my coaching," Leach said. "I thought he was pretty good."

How does Tech usually do as the season goes along? They get better. Why is this line around a TD and not higher? Because Santa Claus wanted us to have Christmas early. Tech wins this one on the road by more than 2 TDs . . . . . . . . . .
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Florida Atlantic +22.5 -- I know, I know, this is a Sun Belt team and the rule of thumb is to NEVER bet on a Sun Belt team -- especially in the non-conference part of the season. AND, if that's not bad enough, this is the same team that took a 54-6 ass-whipping by Clemson last Saturday! Am I nuts! No. Clemson is just that good and I contended back in July that they have a good possibility of contending for ACC Title this year. So, why Florida Atlantic against K-State whenever K-State has a past reputation of running the score up on weaker opponents in non-conference games? The answer is easy -- K-State only beat Division 2 team, Illinois St, by one point last Saturday in their season home opener! Granted, Illinois St is probably the #1 team in Division 2A this season, but K-State had to win this game by scoring their only 2 TDs of the game by a returned fumble recovery and a punt return! The rest of the scores were FGs as K-State is still looking to score their first OFFENSIVE TD! If you look at the stats for this game, K-State was completely dominated by Illinois St in all categories and should not have won this game. K-State who has been perennially a dominant rushing team could only muster a total of 44 yards rushing this game and only 163 yards of passing!

There's one thing you can say about Howard Schnellenberger's FAU Owls -- they are a tough bunch of players who never leave their hearts at home! They were outmatched greatly last week, but should they be over +22 point dogs to this dismal K-State football team? I don't think K-State ought to be laying points to any team, much less +22 of them!!!!!

More to come . . . . . . . .
 
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Penn State +9.5 (-120) -- I got this line early and was able to buy it up over 9 for -120 juice at Pinnacle so I did. I knew this line would eventually fall in Notre Dame's favor and it has since it got put up. After watching Penn State play Akron in a rain storm last Saturday, my impression was that they have not fallen much with the loss of their graduating QB from last year. Morelli went 16/32 for 206 yards and three TDs in a pouring rain -- not bad for a first start for the Jr. QB. He looked smooth and unrattled in his performance and never threw an interception. The WRs looked great again this year, but was not real impressed with their RBs. Still, it was hard to see everyone's best performance in the weather conditions they had to play in.

Defensively, they stopped a pretty good Akron football team. From what I noticed of the MAC this weekend, I was most impressed with NIU and Akron and I think they are the teams to beat in that conference this season. In the summary, Akron was not able to run on Penn State's defense at all only accumulating 44 yards for the game. They had some success passing, but the PSU defense forced two interceptions in the game. Joe Pa stresses good defense and he has another outstanding defense this year.

Notre Dame was touted as a National Championship contender by almost everyone in preseason. No one thought they had a great defense, but everyone thought the defense this season would be better -- it is. Everyone thought the offense could not be stopped and Brady Quinn was TD Jesus incarnate -- GT lost the game last Saturday, but they effectively stopped this offense, and in the process we found a ***** in Quinn's immortality, . . . . . . pressure defense! Guys, as it turned out, ND played a soft scedule last season and did well with it. Because of that, everyone has been touting them high this year. I believe they are overated. They will be tough for Penn State to beat at home, but I look for this one to be another close game where ND will be fighting to stay alive with a win.
 
psu has gone 3-0 ats L3 as a dog and won 2 of those SU agaist top 20 teams i really wanna pull the trigger
 
Georgia -2.5 -- I'll be honest here, this is a coattail of the SEC gurus on this forum. Their comments can be found elsewhere on here and there will be more mentioned on this game I'm sure. Plus, I wqas not impressed with Sout Carolina at all last Thursday.

Clemson -1 -- It's always hard to tell how a team truly is whenever they play these "glorified high school teams." I'm not trying to take anything away from FAU who I'm laying money on this week, but whenever these Sun Belt schools play powerhouses, it's hard to tell a lot in blow-outs. Clemson did not play a stellar game only managing a meeger 372 yards against FAU and they had 4 TOs, but their defense was able to dominate and Proctor got his cherry popped as an official Clemson starter after Whitehurst has started the last 4 years. His numbers for the game were not bad at all as he went 13/20 for 166 yards, 3TDs and 1 interception. I look for him to be one of those type of QBs who will improve the more snaps he gets. Defensively, Clemson took a BIG loss at LB as Anthony Waters tore his ACL and is out the rest of the season. But, this is an experienced bunch on defense for the Tigers this season and they will be more than able to pick up the slack. Special teams also looked very good for Clemson.

What can we say about Boston College? First off, I was impressed with the QB Ryan, especially his passing abilities as he was able to go 32/48 for 323 yards, 3 TDs and no interceptions. However, the running game for BC that has been strong and vital for this team the past couple of seasons was almost non-existent. They were only able to muster up 85 yards for the entire game. CMU had a very impressive front line defense that caused a great deal of this, but their seondary was ineffective. Defensively, BC allowed CMU 366 yards! They are getting ready to face a much more potent offense than this at home Saturday. And that combined with the fact that Clemson's secondary will be much better than CMU's makes Clemson an outright winner here and only giving a point!
 
:Yahoo_59: Nice going on those totals, den.
LMAO on the OU game, which i bought at 42.
We had good friends in for dinner, and the score got ot be 41 wioth 14 minutes to play so we turned our attention to conversation. Eventually I walked into the other room with the 4 TVs going and it was still 41 with 7 minutes to play. Then 3 minutes to play. Finally my buddy and i had to watch it. Would you believe only 3 pts in the 4th Quarter, and none in the last 14 minutes?
Thanks for the Big XII plays . I'll be on all 3 this week. Not surprised K State had trouble with Illinois St. That was one of my 5 1-AA plays.
Talk to you in a week. Have another profitable week-end.
 
Like most of your plays den...that TT line..is it fishy or a gift? I have to see Harrell on the road at least once before I can pull a trigger on TT on the road..same with Morelli.

GL den!
 
Arkansas -27.5 (-140) -- I bought this down below four TDs. I think they win this by 5 TDs or more, but I wanted to be safe. I know Arkansas got waxed by USC at home last week. We all saw it and we all agree that USC reloaded this year instead of rebuilt. Arkansas just played a team out of their league. A couple of years down the road it might have been a much different scenario, but right now it was to be expected by most of us who were on USC. So, what's different about this weekend at home? Quite a lot. Mustain will start against Utah State this week. He looked pretty decent in the few reps he got last week. I heard the announcers say, "Well, it is USC's second string defense after all," that's true. But, USC's second string defense is much better than Utah State's starting defense! So what is he liable to do against them? I think quite a lot! Arkansas needs to redeem themselves here and they will have a great opportunity against a terrible Utah State team that gave up 460 yards to a mediocre Wyoming football team last Saturday and was only able to muster 129 yards total themselves!

I know some will be thinking, "Well, what about a USC butt-whipping layover for Arkansas here." I don't see it happening. Nutt and the Hogs really let the fans down last week in Fayetville. I look for the Hogs to get up for this game knowing they have a wonderful opportunity to score lots of points and restore the fans faith once again. Mustain will likely play the entire game because coaches know the benefit here for him to get as many reps as he can going into conference play. I don't think Utah State will be able to stop anything the Razorbacks want to do and I think we're getting a soft line due to the devastation USC wrought on this team Saturday night!
 
STACKS-- I think Arky will blow this Utah State team out easily! Good to know we are on a lot of same plays!
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HUNT -- I don't believe in "traps." I think we are getting a line here based on the loss of Hicks for Tech (which they didn't seem to miss last week), the fact that Tech is usually not as dominant on the road as they are at home, and the fact that people think UTEP beat a very good SDSU team on the road. I'm not convinced at all that this UTEP team is good enough to be contending with Tech at any place, and yet that line says they are. The line is wrong based on the assumptions the linesmakers are making here.

bull -- Thanks, dude! I had that OU UNDER wrote off by the start of the fourth quarter, too, so it was a pleasant surprise and we were lucky. If the Oklahoma defense continues to play the rest of the game like they did in the first two series, and like they are capable of doing, we get that UNDER cover EASILY! But, they got overconfident and played like shit! I was pretty pissed off about that.

Glad you hit Illinois St, that was a good call!
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More to come later guys, after I eat some lunch . . . . . . .
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Outstanding Sooner..............already hit TT & have been eyeing the Clemson & PSU plays.
 
Oklahoma State -13.5 -- Last season I made lots of money fading Oklahoma State as they just outright sucked. This year it will be a bit different as this 4-7 team of last year will improve to at least a 6-6 team this season. Last week Oklahoma State played a Div. 2A school in Missouri St. They beat them handily 52-10. No big deal? It is to Oklahoma State as they struggled last year beating Montana St 15-10; then beat Florida Atlantic 20-3; and barely beat this same Arkansas St team 20-10. These three games, along with an upset win at home over Texas Tech, proved to be the Pokes only wins for the season. However, it was to be expected since Miles left this team with the cubbard dry and Gundy kicked a lot of the troublemakers off the team to start the season. Bobby Reid, the stud starting QB, never played very studly all season.

In Saturday's game, Coach Gundy played players that no one expected or had even heard of, but they produced and produced well! Bobby Reid showed some maturity by going 8/17 for 165 yards and 4 TDs without an interception. Three RBs that no one knew ran the ball and all averaged over 4 yards a carry. About the only part of Okie State's game that didn't shine real brightly was the defense that allowed 266 yards passing. BUT, they did only allow Missouri St to score 10 points for the game.That's certainly an improvement over the 31 ppg allowed of 2005.

Where did these unknowns come from? The last year's recruiting done by Miles and the first year's recruiting done by Gundy was very good! The talent is there and Gundy is a good enough coach to get these players molded into a decent team.

Arkansas St won their home opener against Army 14-6. They did very well on the ground rushing for 222 yards, but lost three fumbles in the process. ASU's defense only gave up a total of 164 yards of offense as their defense was expected to be their strong suit this season.

The bottom line here is that ASU will see a much improved offense in this Oklahoma State team and one that is certainly more capable than Army's. Arkie St doesn't offer much in way of offense and Oklahoma State seems to be able to stop the run adequately enough. I bought this down a point to put me UNDER 2 TDs. I think OSU will cover this handily.

This game will be played in "Litte Rock" Arkansas. It's a road game for both teams, but ASU fans don't travel well to support their team. There is liable to be more fans there for Okie State than ASU.
 
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Like the play on OSU, may have to join you.

Like the FAU play too, but am sooooooo wary of laying any money on Sun Belt teams.
 
Here's some sides I'm looking at but have not pulled the trigger on yet:

Rice +27.5 -- Even though UCLA beat Utah this last weekend, I'm still not sold on them being a great team. Olson obviously had a great game, but it looked to me more like the fact that UCLA was prepared for this game and Utah was not. I think Utah losing their starting QB in fall camp hurt them more than I thought it would as both QBs did poorly.

Rice was a surprise as they gave Houston all they wanted and nearly beat them SU! Maybe Horn is right and Appelwhite has got it going with this team! The real question is, are the linesmakers giving too many points here?

UNLV +14 -- Damn "NickFazekas" for being a dick one too many times and getting himself banned here. Right whenever I needed his input, he will not be around to give it. Maybe pags can help me out here. UNLV looked like they had plenty of offense accumulating 506 yards Saturday in their game against Div2A Idaho State. Idaho State is ranked about 29 in this division. UNLV beat them 54-10.

Iowa State looked very average in their season opener as we all know. Now, they play UNLV before their big rivalry game against Iowa next week. Lookahead spot here? Even if they come to play, with their defense, UNLV may be able to keep up with their scoring. Need some comments here . . . .

Fresno State +5 and I want +7.5 -- Oregon looked great in their opener, but FSU might have beaten a better opponent in theirs. FSU showed us that they will not miss much as they seemed to fill their skill positions quite adequately. Oregon is in a "lookahead spot" here and FSU is tough to beat at home . . . . . .

This is all I'm contemplating for now . . . . . . I would love some input on these last three.
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Like the UNLV play not because of how good they are but due to look ahead factor for ISU going against Iowa next week.

Agree value goes to Fresno State +7.5. I would middle my Oregon -3 if I could get Fresno St +7.5. Won't happen without some major buying of points.
 
rjurewitz said:
Like the UNLV play not because of how good they are but due to look ahead factor for ISU going against Iowa next week.

Agree value goes to Fresno State +7.5. I would middle my Oregon -3 if I could get Fresno St +7.5. Won't happen without some major buying of points.
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I agree. :cheers:
 
i hated that prick anyways good news for the site......

I think ucla may be in a good spot to blow a team out especially one on the road and a low caliber team such as Rice. I think the line is about right. i can see 56-14 just as well as 42-17 so take it for what its worth your a good capper i'd tread lightly or no play persoanlly.

unlv is a game that has loss value from when it opened at+16 should've jumped and took +17 for -125. Rocky Hinds is great and his WRs are as well. I think this is a good dog play personally.

Oregon is def one of my more confident plays on the board especially at -3 when i got it. i will say value switches IF and only IF it gets to +7.5 doubtful though.

Overall you will probably hit 2 outta 3 but UNLV loos like the best bet out of those 3
 
TroyStacks said:
i hated that prick anyways good news for the site......

I think ucla may be in a good spot to blow a team out especially one on the road and a low caliber team such as Rice. I think the line is about right. i can see 56-14 just as well as 42-17 so take it for what its worth your a good capper i'd tread lightly or no play persoanlly.

unlv is a game that has loss value from when it opened at+16 should've jumped and took +17 for -125. Rocky Hinds is great and his WRs are as well. I think this is a good dog play personally.

Oregon is def one of my more confident plays on the board especially at -3 when i got it. i will say value switches IF and only IF it gets to +7.5 doubtful though.

Overall you will probably hit 2 outta 3 but UNLV loos like the best bet out of those 3
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Thanks, STACKS!!
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soonerbs,

you're one helluva man...I'm on UNLV +14 this week bud...

stacks,

I believe game starts to lose value at +13.5 or less...that's just my opinion...
 
I love UNLV and have put them as an upset special, not only as the look ahead game but with the USC practice squad running some positions i think they will make a serious game, remember HInds gave booty a run at #2 a few springs ago
 
Against ya on Oregon/Fresno...
they played a decent 1/2, then almsot fell apart. if they're gonna keep it close with Oregon, that means they'll have to score a boatload of points...like the USC game last year. it'll be the only way. I'm jsut not sure they're capable of that TY, having watched them agaisnt nevada.

Got a lot of work left, but you got one great card going already for week #2, Den.

Only other thing to mention is Rice/UCLA. Might wanna look at the over here, if you think Rice will keep it close. All i know about Rice TY is they had a great 2nd Q agaisnt Houston. Watched most of the Bruin game though. Way, way ahead of schedule.
They left fall camp compeltely uncertain with what they'd get outta their QB and RB positions. And they came out agaisnt Utah, and jsut carved them up...like a hgih school defense, it was that bad at times. (I bet utah, btw)
Not sure they'll keep it up...but the offense i watched this weekend was unreal...like they didn't miss a step from last year, despite the personnel losses. So if you think that Rice can score 17 to 20 pts...this fucker sails over the total.

Gimme what info you got on Rice...because i'm licking my chops, having watched this offense literally carve up utah...and kill my bet last week.
 
Wow! Thanks for the input, guys!
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OK, based on what I have received from you and have confirmed through capping, I am officially adding: UNLV +14.5
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Yanks, let me think about that OVER in the Rice/UCLA game. My line is showing 55.5 and that's quite a bit for some games, but not for a PAC10 and former WAC team. Interesting . . . . . . .
 
I'm Adding: Oklahoma -17

You can forget about a "look-ahead" spot here for Oklahoma this week. It ain't going to happen thanks to the way they stunk it up in Saturday's game. Did they believe all that bullshit hype some magazines were giving them about being #1 in the Nation? I felt like before the season began that they were two years away from being that caliber of a team again. Now that Bomar is out of the picture, there's no telling when they will be that type of team again. But they came out last Saturday expecting UAB to fall down whenever they said, "boo!" Offensively, Thompson is what he is -- a talented athlete that should have started hi college career playing something other than QB. He will never be anything more than a mediocre QB thanks to the "brain fart" of Bomar. Still, the offensive line blocked well on pass plays, but was lacking on the run. The WRs dropped passes that hit them in the hands. And, Adrian peterson ran like the UAB defense was just going to open up like Moses parting the Red Sea and allow him to run for 300 yards! Very poor performances.

Do we even need to mention the defensive play? It literally made me sick!!
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Oklahoma has some of the best players per position defensively in the nation and they all looked like a bunch Jr. High boys chasing girls last Saturday -- clumsy and clueless! To sum it all up they couldn't have tackled Rosie O'Donnell chasing a Lesbion!
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So, why the hell am I playing on them this week whenever it would be very likely they would be looking to Oregon next week? The coaches are not putting up with the shit that they saw last Saturday. They saw the very same thing happen last season, and they are not happy. Note this article:

Updated: Sep. 5, 2006, 3:57 PM ET
Peterson draws criticism after Sooners' opening win


Associated Press





NORMAN, Okla. -- Offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson walked into Oklahoma's locker room and sat down with Adrian Peterson.
The talented tailback had just run for 139 yards and scored two second-half touchdowns to help lift the Sooners to a 24-17 win in their opener against UAB. Wilson had a message for the 2004 Heisman runner-up.
"I said, 'Hey, that ain't close to what you need to play,'" Wilson said Tuesday. "He goes, 'I know.'"
Peterson's second-half performance was enough to prevent Oklahoma from losing its second straight season opener at home. But it wasn't what Wilson, in his first game as Oklahoma's offensive coordinator, was looking for.
"I told him after the game, 'If you're a man, you need to go in and tell those guys you didn't play your best.' He was dancing too much early, he's looking for big plays instead of sticking it, being decisive and making great cuts," Wilson said.
"When he stops moving his feet, he's just another guy like everyone else," Wilson added.
Peterson gained only 18 yards on his first seven carries before a 37-yard pickup on a toss sweep around the left side. Oklahoma and UAB went into halftime tied at 7.
"[When] you don't get a lot of carries, sometimes as a player you want to try to make the play instead of just playing fast and playing decisive," Wilson said. "He's a mature guy and he's a talented guy and hopefully this week, he'll improve and not feel like he has to make big plays but just play fast and play physical because he will make plays if he does that."
Wilson said Peterson was also responsible for the only sack the Sooners allowed against UAB and Peterson also failed to pick up a blitzer that hit quarterback Paul Thompson and caused a throw to fall short for an interception.
"If I would've gotten that block, he would have been able to follow through with it and put it in front of [Juaquin Iglesias] and it would have been an easy touchdown," Peterson said after practice Monday. "Just watching the film, I'm looking at things I need to improve on more and focus on more."
Peterson said he thought there were a lot of "little things" he needed to work on while the 15th-ranked Sooners prepare to play Washington on Saturday. Oklahoma fell five spots -- farther than any team that won its opening game -- in the AP poll that was released Tuesday.
"I'm not being critical of him," Wilson said. "He played a good game but it wasn't his best."
Wilson said he believes Peterson, who set an NCAA freshman record with 1,925 rushing yards in 2004, is receptive to feedback and "appreciates being pushed."
"He's never going to be perfect. No one is," Wilson said. "But you're striving to push him to get there. I think he understands because I think he takes a lot of pride in his performance.
"If I can't criticize him or coach him or correct him, I can't coach anyone on our team, and he knows that," Wilson added.
At Miami of Ohio, Wilson coached Travis Prentice, who holds NCAA records with 862 straight carries without a fumble and 73 career touchdown runs.
"This guy ain't close to either one of those two things, as talented as he is right now," Wilson said. "That's the challenge, is to get him to be a great player. He's a great talent. He's close. But it's getting him to be more consistent and that's what we're striving for him to do.
"When he's told all the time how good he is and you start thinking those things, you take things for granted and you try to make great plays or you don't play with the discipline and structure you need. That's his challenge as he goes to find out if he will really be a great, great player," he said.
Copyright 2006 by The Associated Press


So, what's going to happen whenever all these players get their asses chewed like Peterson did? They are going to kick Washington's ass all over the field. Here's a motivational handicapping jewel here, boys! This one fits the same category as Arkansas -- looking to play a game for redemption from sins of past performances.
 
Sooner, Nice thread you got working here; not sure if you are on all these plays or not.

Re: FAU @ K-State...remember that RB Clayton returns for the 'Cats this week and represents a large upgrade over what they had their last week. I realize if there are no holes to run through, it'll be difficult no matter whom is toting the pig, but Clayton will probably represent the best athlete on the field. GL
 
Den...i played it last nite...softly. Will hit harder once i know more about Rice TY. Seriously, if they can put up 20-24...maybe even jsut 17...against a fairly weak Bruin defense...this game sails over 60.

Not saying it will be quite as much as last year's game...but saying it'll be closer to that, than to 55.5...having watched the Bruin offense vs utah, which is still solid up front defensively.
 
OK, Yanks talked me into this: Rice/UCLA OVER 55.5 .

A lot of this bet is made on the offensive production of these two teams last week against fairly decent competition. Also, is anyone truly willing to bet an UNDER on a PAC10 team and a former WAC team?

I am off the RICE side and the FSU side as I don't think the FSU line will ever get up to +7.
 
I disagree with you on OK St/Arky St. The Indians won all there home games last year. The game in Stillwater last year the Indians had more yardage and had some chances to take the lead late in the game. The Indians game against Army was not as close as the score indicated. They fumbled twice inside the 15 and miss a FG. The cowboys had the #107 rush defense last year and only return 5 starters from that unit. I would not put alot of stock in the Cowboys win against Missouri State as they had a poorly ranked defense last year in 1-AA. This game will be on ESPNU and the Indians should be very fired up some TV exposure. I think the game plays out much as it did last year and if the Indians end up with a similar total yardage as to the Cowboys there is no reason why they should not be within 14.5 barring turnovers.
 
Helmut said:
I disagree with you on OK St/Arky St. The Indians won all there home games last year. The game in Stillwater last year the Indians had more yardage and had some chances to take the lead late in the game. The Indians game against Army was not as close as the score indicated. They fumbled twice inside the 15 and miss a FG. The cowboys had the #107 rush defense last year and only return 5 starters from that unit. I would not put alot of stock in the Cowboys win against Missouri State as they had a poorly ranked defense last year in 1-AA. This game will be on ESPNU and the Indians should be very fired up some TV exposure. I think the game plays out much as it did last year and if the Indians end up with a similar total yardage as to the Cowboys there is no reason why they should not be within 14.5 barring turnovers.
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Thank you for your comments.
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Let me start by saying that this is not a home game for ASU. The game is being played in Little Rock. Razor, a poster on this board and a college football guru, is a sportwriter for the paper stationed in the town where ASU resides. He has told me that ASU fans do not travel well and he believes it is likely there will be more Oklahoma State fans there than ASU. I believe him.

Helmut, ASU has a good defense for the Sun Belt conference and teams like Army. But, this is not the same offense they played a year ago. Oklahoma State has some new names and has showed a great deal of maturity through the Spring, Summer and Fall camp. I know because living in Oklahoma, I get as many OSU reports as I do Oklahoma Sooner reports. Reid was the reason last year that it was a good bet to fade Okie State. Fading Okie State last year kept me alive in gambling for the season. But, this year, he will be the reason to bet ON Okie State. He has improved a great deal and it will show.

I don't think ASU will be able to hold OSU the entire game and ASU doesn't have much of an offense this season. I think -13.5 is a good bet on the side of the improved ball team and a neutral site.
 
SoonerBS said:
Thank you for your comments.
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Let me start by saying that this is not a home game for ASU. The game is being played in Little Rock. Razor, a poster on this board and a college football guru, is a sportwriter for the paper stationed in the town where ASU resides. He has told me that ASU fans do not travel well and he believes it is likely there will be more Oklahoma State fans there than ASU. I believe him.

Helmut, ASU has a good defense for the Sun Belt conference and teams like Army. But, this is not the same offense they played a year ago. Oklahoma State has some new names and has showed a great deal of maturity through the Spring, Summer and Fall camp. I know because living in Oklahoma, I get as many OSU reports as I do Oklahoma Sooner reports. Reid was the reason last year that it was a good bet to fade Okie State. Fading Okie State last year kept me alive in gambling for the season. But, this year, he will be the reason to bet ON Okie State. He has improved a great deal and it will show.

I don't think ASU will be able to hold OSU the entire game and ASU doesn't have much of an offense this season. I think -13.5 is a good bet on the side of the improved ball team and a neutral site.
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Oh, what do you know?
 
great stuff DEN...I appreciate the time and effort you put into to help everyone get as much info as possible...whether we are on your plays or not, den's threads are a must read...good job buddy!
 
Thanks, HUNT and Goose!
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Here are my final two plays for my card. As mentioned in my initial post, I will be leaving early tomorrow morning to go to a three day seminar, so I will not have internet access until I get back home Saturday evening.

ML Parlay:

Pittsburgh
Clemson
Washington St.
Texas Tech
Dallas Cowboys

If I am winning this parlay going into Sunday, I will hedge my Cowboy bet. This ML parlay is $100 to win $610.

Final Play: Upset ML play of the Week:

Kent State ML +226 over Army - Kent St was chose by Phil Steele in his mag to contend for the MAC title by the end of the year. Phil wouldn't have made this prediction if Kent didn't have the personnel to deliver. Everyone looked at what Minny did to Kent and I think we all agree on two things: Kent had trouble stopping Minny's run game and Minny reloaded on offense this year. Now, Kent St will take a drastic step down in talent playing Army, but will play a similar offensive scheme that focuses on the run. So, the defense will make adjustments this week to be more effective at stopping the run game. First game now having been played and the jitters relieved, hopefully, Kent will also eliminate the turnover problem they had against Minny as well.

On the Army side of the ball, they lost their opener on the road at Arkansas St where they were able to only score two FGs. To ASU's credit here, they have a pretty good defense this year. Still, this is Army, they have kids that play with a lot of heart, but they have very little talent to work with. Now, Army will actually take a step up to play a better offensive team with a completely different scheme than what they saw against ASU as Kent is balanced in the passing game as well as running. Even though Army gets this one at home, I think Kent's offense will be too much for them to handle.

Good luck this week, guys!
beer.gif
 
redbearde said:
if you haven't played Kent yet, take it at pinny where the number is +260

GL.
Click to expand...

It must have just moved to +260 because I took it there at +226 early this morning.
 
holy shit, you're kidding....

It was 260 late last night too. What is going on with this line?
 
Den, what kinda score u thinking on the Ok St. game? I'm strongly considering an Under 46 play there, think we might see a 27-10 type affair
 
Killa said:
Den, what kinda score u thinking on the Ok St. game? I'm strongly considering an Under 46 play there, think we might see a 27-10 type affair
Click to expand...

I'd certainly lean UNDER more than OVER here because ASU has a better defense than they have offense. OSU defense looked good last week, but that was because they were playing a Div. 2A school. They should be better than last season though. I'd go with the UNDER with both teams playing on a neutral field, Killa.
beer.gif
 
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