NCAA FB RSW DISCUSSION

Excited that I will be participating in another podcast next week called “The First Reed”. Available on Spotify. Will be discussing the wacky MAC in detail.

Will also be a participant in another episode of Lean Tossup Sports college football conference previews in early August, if you all are so inclined.
 
Couple nuggets in FCS for the notebook

Mcneese + tarleton state over first number you see. Max that baby out. 8/24

If you find a line for No. Arizona + Lincoln University. Take NAU any number. -28. -38. -44. Doesn’t matter.

Davidson should be a sizeable underdog @Georgetown 8/31 (Davidson in the non-scholarship FCS Pioneer Football League, Georgetown in the scholarship Patriot league) but George doesn’t offer football scholarships so everyone there walks on or plays lacrosse. Minimal if any talent gap here. Look for a +14

Valparaiso @ Nor Iowa the talent gap will be huge. Please hang a -24.5
 
Week 0:



Hawaii -27.5 (FD)

New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)

Week 1: *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)

Hawaii + 14.5 (everywhere)

UConn +22.5 (bet365)

North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)

UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)

Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)

USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)

charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)

Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage)

UTSA -20.5 -115 (heritage) .5u

Jacksonville State -3.5 -108 (heritage) .5u

Syracuse -13.5 -115 (heritage) .5u







Futures Portfolio:
2024 NCAA FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON WINS PLAYS
Clemson under 9.5 -170
UCLA under 5.5 -110
Kansas State under 9.5 -135
San Diego St under 5.5 -120
Coastal Carolina under 6.5 -110
James Madison under 8.5 -164
Arkansas under 5.5 -200
Ohio U under 6.5 -104
New Mexico State under 4.5 -128
North Carolina under 7.5 -115
Ball State under 4.5 -154
Georgia State under 4.5 +100
Old Dominion under 5 -160
Kennesaw State under 2.5 -110


TEXAS STATE to win SBC +500 .33u
BOWLING GREEN to win MAC +700 .33u
EAST CAROLINA to win AAC +1600 .22u
NC STATE to win ACC +650 .33u
NORTH TEXAS to win AAC +2200 .22u
FIU to win C-USA +10000 .1u
LA TECH to win C-USA +4500 .22u
MARSHALL to win SBC +1800 .22u
AF to win MWC +1400 .33u
WMU to win the MAC +880 .33u


Lottos:
140/1 Texas state + boise State + WMU all conference winners
672/1 ECU + Texas State + NC State
71/1 Bowling Green + Texas State + Liberty

Games of the year plays

septEmber 28th UNC ML -115. @duke (bet 365)
 
steponaduck said:
Excited that I will be participating in another podcast next week called “The First Reed”. Available on Spotify. Will be discussing the wacky MAC in detail.

Will also be a participant in another episode of Lean Tossup Sports college football conference previews in early August, if you all are so inclined.
Click to expand...
Very Cool I'll look for it
 
Thrilled that I was able to participate in "The First Reed" podcast discussing conference outlook and regular season wins. It was a great discussion and very insightful. If you are so inclined, go check out the pod and get more information from blue bird.
 
I am adding some more plays to the regular season wins card




steponaduck
steponaduck

Veteran
Participation Meter




POSTED: Jul. 27, 2024 - 3:20 PM ET#62




Week 0:



Hawaii -27.5 (FD)

New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)


Week 1: *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)

Hawaii + 14.5 (everywhere)

UConn +22.5 (bet365)

North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)

UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)

Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)

USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)

charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)

Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage)

UTSA -20.5 -115 (heritage) .5u

Jacksonville State -3.5 -108 (heritage) .5u

Syracuse -13.5 -115 (heritage) .5u







Futures Portfolio:
2024 NCAA FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON WINS PLAYS
Clemson under 9.5 -170
UCLA under 5.5 -110
Kansas State under 9.5 -135
San Diego St under 5.5 -120
Coastal Carolina under 6.5 -110
James Madison under 8.5 -164
Arkansas under 5.5 -200
Ohio U under 6.5 -104
New Mexico State under 4.5 -128
North Carolina under 7.5 -115
Ball State under 4.5 -154
Georgia State under 4.5 +100
Old Dominion under 5 -160
Kennesaw State under 2.5 -110
Duke under 5.5 -120
Temple under 2.5 -112
CMU under 6 -125


NC STATE to win ACC +650 .33u
NORTH TEXAS to win AAC +2200 .22u
FIU to win C-USA +10000 .1u
LA TECH to win C-USA +4500 .22u
MARSHALL to win SBC +1800 .22u
AF to win MWC +1400 .33u
WMU to win the MAC +880 .33u


Lottos:
140/1 Texas state + boise State + WMU all conference winners
672/1 ECU + Texas State + NC State
71/1 Bowling Green + Texas State + Liberty

Games of the year playe

septEmber 28th UNC ML -115. @duke (bet 365)
 
Added a few more regular season wins, and this regular season win card is officially the largest I’ve ever had in my portfolio at one time
 
Hi Step,

I’m curious if you have an opinion for RSW 10.5 for Georgia? I think there’s value in under at even considering their three most difficult games are on the road (Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss) plus there’s Clemson “neutral” in Atlanta and the rest of their SEC card isn’t easy. But under isn’t an easy pick considering they haven’t lost a regular season game since 2020… I have them at 10.2-1.8 so I like the value at under 10.5 for even.

Also slightly off topic, I’m curious if anyone is considering how the new playoff system will affect games? I believe later in the season, teams inside the top 12 will be good to fade ATS since they won’t feel pressured to kill teams for the eye test - and will be more prone to rest players, knowing the playoffs will take its toll.
 
longshotsws said:
Hi Step,

I’m curious if you have an opinion for RSW 10.5 for Georgia? I think there’s value in under at even considering their three most difficult games are on the road (Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss) plus there’s Clemson “neutral” in Atlanta and the rest of their SEC card isn’t easy. But under isn’t an easy pick considering they haven’t lost a regular season game since 2020… I have them at 10.2-1.8 so I like the value at under 10.5 for even.

Also slightly off topic, I’m curious if anyone is considering how the new playoff system will affect games? I believe later in the season, teams inside the top 12 will be good to fade ATS since they won’t feel pressured to kill teams for the eye test - and will be more prone to rest players, knowing the playoffs will take its toll.
Click to expand...
That second point is very interesting and definitely something to think about.

I'd look more into maybe the game or two before the finales (since those are the rivalry games).
 
B.A.R. said:
That second point is very interesting and definitely something to think about.

I'd look more into maybe the game or two before the finales (since those are the rivalry games).
Click to expand...

Yeah, I have weeks 12 and 13 circled. I’m not sure if there’s an official name for week 13 - with week 14 as hate week. Week 13 is usually a crappy week for fans, given many lopsided matchups, but I think it’s an early degenerate Thanksgiving this year! I don’t see too many week 14s that would fit this “system” aside from perhaps the Egg Bowl (currently seeing Missy St +18.5).
 
longshotsws said:
Hi Step,

I’m curious if you have an opinion for RSW 10.5 for Georgia? I think there’s value in under at even considering their three most difficult games are on the road (Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss) plus there’s Clemson “neutral” in Atlanta and the rest of their SEC card isn’t easy. But under isn’t an easy pick considering they haven’t lost a regular season game since 2020… I have them at 10.2-1.8 so I like the value at under 10.5 for even.

Also slightly off topic, I’m curious if anyone is considering how the new playoff system will affect games? I believe later in the season, teams inside the top 12 will be good to fade ATS since they won’t feel pressured to kill teams for the eye test - and will be more prone to rest players, knowing the playoffs will take its toll.
Click to expand...
With UGA. I would ask yourself : what is the possibility that they lose twice? So if they are power rated as a fave in all 12 (with power ratings that you trust and are confident in leaning into for betting), figure out what the number would be on those close games and try to come up with a ML so you can ascertain what the true odds of them losing twice might be.

2023 Uga…best team all year in many people’s eyes. Undefeated all season.

So at bama bama +133 ML?
At Texas Texas +170 ML?
At ole miss OM +230 ML?

Georgia -20 or greater in all others. So what losing combo unlocks a winning under play? I just don’t know if I would want to have my money tied up all season betting the best team in America slips up twice.

And how motivated are they for another “coming out” tour after being left out last year. Let’s be honest. They would have been -11 on a neutral over UW and we’re clearly pissed about it during that Florida state butt whoopin.

Just not a train I would want to step in front of.

I think the new playoff format can provide some value for large dogs against the perennial, powerhouse teams all season, as I believe there will be some element of load management since teams. Do not have to worry as much about style points, margin of victory, going 12 and.0.

At some point, I believe teams that have a chance to get in will realize that and during the last half of the season will probably alter how deep they play their starters and how many second team guys get in and game meaningful reps for later
 
Thanks Step - I appreciate your insights on the Georgia RSW total.

Aside from the ATS angle for playoff teams, I think some G5 “to make playoffs” seem light - as someone from the G5 is guaranteed a spot. I took a shot in the dark on Texas St at +1600.
 
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Working on a composite power rankings spreadsheet with SP+, sag, action network and massey to try to formulate a composite "what the line should be" so we can be ready to fire away when all of these lines get released. only issue is SP+ composite is not out yet and sag hasnt been updated since january 8th. anyone know where I can get these composite ratings?

only a few major outliers right now, most glaringly Lafayette @ Buffalo. Massey has UB -15.5, action Lafayette -9.
 
I was running some numbers on FCS vs FCS week 1 games using some proprietary power ratings and believe that these are some numbers that we might see when FCS vs FCS lines are released. I am not saying this is where the line should be, or that we should be betting into these numbers if the lines are off, but it could be considered a starting point for assessing who and what we want to bet into for FCS lines. These lines are typically known to be release day of, and usually not sooner than 90 minutes before kickoff, and they have a tendency to move quickly. To read this chart you have a team, the respective power rating assigned, and then a potential spread at the end.

A couple of notes I have on these FCS week 0/1 games will be posted in my next post below... just based on a preliminary review of this along with the phil steele fcs mag and any other fcs literature i have been able to digest this off season (twitter beat writers, team website content, sam herder hero sports, s--k on this webpage, etc.)





MCNEESE @ TARLETON STATE MCNEESE STATE 22.70 TARLETON STATE 53.80 -31.10
SEMO @ NORTH ALABAMA SE MISSOURI ST 42.00 NORTH ALABAMA 36.40 5.60
FAMU @ NORFOLK ST FLORIDA A&M 58.00 NORFOLK STATE 30.00 28.00
YOUNGSTOWN STATE @ VILLANOVA YOUNGSTOWN ST 62.40 VILLANOVA 62.20 0.20
WOFFORD @ GARDNER WEBB WOFFORD 28.40 GARDNER-WEBB 44.00 -15.60
PRESBYTERIAN @ MERCER PRESBYTERIAN 22.70 MERCER 47.70 -25.00
BRYANT @ DELAWARE BRYANT 46.90 DELAWARE 56.90 -10.00
VMI @ WILLIAM AND MARY VMI 30.90 WILLIAM & MARY 49.70 -18.80
MONMOUTH @ EASTERN WASHINGTONMONMOUTH 47.60 E WASHINGTON 42.30 5.30
COLGATE @ MAINE COLGATE 41.40 MAINE 31.90 9.50
SFPA @ DAYTON SAINT FRANCIS-PA 39.50 DAYTON 30.50 9.00
DAVIDSON @ GEORGETOWN DAVIDSON 38.30 GEORGETOWN 41.00 -2.70
VALPO @ NORTHERN IOWA VALPARAISO 25.30 NORTHERN IOWA 50.30 -25.00
SOU CAROLINA STATE @ FAMU SC STATE 37.40 FLORIDA A&M 58.00 -20.60
CITADEL @ CHARLESTON SOUTHERN THE CITADEL 16.60 CHARLESTON SOU 32.60 -16.00
MORGAN STATE @ HAMPTON MORGAN STATE 33.70 HAMPTON 31.20 2.50
DELAWARE STATE @ SACRED HEART DELAWARE STATE 20.70 SACRED HEART 25.30 -4.60
MISS VALLEY STATE @ TENNESSEE STATEMVSU 23.30 TENNESSEE STATE 38.10 -14.80
NO COLORADO @ INCARNATE WORD NORTHERN CO 21.80 INCARNATE WORD 52.90 -31.10
TEXAS SOUTHERN @ PVA&M TEXAS SOUTHERN 38.10 PRAIRIE VIEW 33.60 4.50
HOLY CROSS @ RHODE ISLAND HOLY CROSS 61.00 RHODE ISLAND 46.50 14.50
LIU @ ALBANY LONG ISLAND 28.10 ALBANY-NY 59.20 -31.10
SOUTHERN @ MCNEESE SOUTHERN U. 42.40 MCNEESE STATE 22.70 19.70
CAL POLY @ SAN DIEGO CAL POLY 26.40 SAN DIEGO 31.20 -4.80
MISSOURI STATE @ MONTANA MISSOURI STATE 48.80 MONTANA 64.70 -15.90
ALABAMA STATE @ NC CENTRAL ALABAMA STATE 45.30 NC CENTRAL 46.90 -1.60
 
week 0 MCNEESE @ TARLETON STATE MCNEESE STATE 22.70 TARLETON STATE 53.80 -31.10 mcneese 0-10 last year but likely to be improved with former MT QB coming in, would play the cowboys at this number without hesitation.
week 0SEMO @ NORTH ALABAMA SE MISSOURI ST 42.00 NORTH ALABAMA 36.40 5.60 not sure UNA should be a dog here
week 0 FAMU @ NORFOLK ST FLORIDA A&M 58.00 NORFOLK STATE 30.00 28.00 BIG mismatch, do the books have the guts to make FAMU -28 on the road?

week 1
YOUNGSTOWN STATE @ VILLANOVA YOUNGSTOWN ST 62.40 VILLANOVA 62.20 0.20 sneaky good FCS matchup in week 1, think Nova is the better team
WOFFORD @ GARDNER WEBB WOFFORD 28.40 GARDNER-WEBB 44.00 -15.60 GW loses a ton, not sure they should be this large a fave vs. wofford in year 2 of the spread offense.
PRESBYTERIAN @ MERCER PRESBYTERIAN 22.70 MERCER 47.70 -25.00 PU better than in years past, but non-scholorship FCS pioneer football league is really bad and the talent disparity in the depths of the roster is noticeable.
BRYANT @ DELAWARE BRYANT 46.90 DELAWARE 56.90 -10.00 what will delaware treat this season as, with the transition up to FBS?
VMI @ WILLIAM AND MARY VMI 30.90 WILLIAM & MARY 49.70 -18.80 VMI improved on the field last year after being a SOCON bottom feeder for ever, this is a lot of points but W&M vastly different LY when their best offensive players were healthy.
MONMOUTH @ EASTERN WASHINGTONMONMOUTH 47.60 E WASHINGTON 42.30 5.30 long trip from NJ to Cheaney...EWA a home dog?
COLGATE @ MAINE COLGATE 41.40 MAINE 31.90 9.50 two bad teams here, wonder what we will see.
SFPA @ DAYTON SAINT FRANCIS-PA 39.50 DAYTON 30.50 9.00 SFPA should crush these guys before getting buried by two FBS mac teams...if they dont, something is wrong.
DAVIDSON @ GEORGETOWN DAVIDSON 38.30 GEORGETOWN 41.00 -2.70 sneaky matchup here. GU in the Patriot league but the school is a NON Scholarship football school so the talent here will not be staggering, would hope the books dont know that and hang a -10 out there so we could play davidson.
VALPO @ NORTHERN IOWA VALPARAISO 25.30 NORTHERN IOWA 50.30 -25.00 this line would be low, valpo typically gets buried by these MVFC teams, UNI way way down from years prior
SOU CAROLINA STATE @ FAMU SC STATE 37.40 FLORIDA A&M 58.00 -20.60 lots of points again here, FAMU could be rock solid this season.
CITADEL @ CHARLESTON SOUTHERN THE CITADEL 16.60 CHARLESTON SOU 32.60 -16.00 hard to lay this many with CSU, but citadel is really really bad.
MORGAN STATE @ HAMPTON MORGAN STATE 33.70 HAMPTON 31.20 2.50 no idea here, wouldnt bet a ham sandwich on this one.
DELAWARE STATE @ SACRED HEART DELAWARE STATE 20.70 SACRED HEART 25.30 -4.60 long trip back from hawaii and on the road again, would seek to play SHU
MISS VALLEY STATE @ TENNESSEE STATEMVSU 23.30 TENNESSEE STATE 38.10 -14.80 MVSU horrific, and not getting any better, would seek to play tennessee state.
NO COLORADO @ INCARNATE WORD NORTHERN CO 21.80 INCARNATE WORD 52.90 -31.10 UNC really really has fallen hard, has UIW maintained their level of play, and are they motivated to blow out this team? SHould score at will
TEXAS SOUTHERN @ PVA&M TEXAS SOUTHERN 38.10 PRAIRIE VIEW 33.60 4.50 eeek...pass
HOLY CROSS @ RHODE ISLAND HOLY CROSS 61.00 RHODE ISLAND 46.50 14.50 HCU getting a lot of credit for years past, coach and QB gone. might look Home dog RI here.
LIU @ ALBANY LONG ISLAND 28.10 ALBANY-NY 59.20 -31.10 goodness, this line surprises me, Albany certainly has to take a step back this year, maybe LIU a step up?
SOUTHERN @ MCNEESE SOUTHERN U. 42.40 MCNEESE STATE 22.70 19.70 again another line probably out of whack due to horrid mcneese play from last year but would have no choice but to play cowboys large at this number...likely a number we will not see.
CAL POLY @ SAN DIEGO CAL POLY 26.40 SAN DIEGO 31.20 -4.80 big rivalry game here, CPU typically plays these guys close.
MISSOURI STATE @ MONTANA MISSOURI STATE 48.80 MONTANA 64.70 -15.90 MO St. transitioning to FBS, what will they treat this season as? will they compete here or have they decided to use this as a throw away season, you should know early in this one.
ALABAMA STATE @ NC CENTRAL ALABAMA STATE 45.30 NC CENTRAL 46.90 -1.60- NCC tough at home, what is this respect for Alabama state, I would be surprised to see them improve as much as to compete with NCC who holds their own in the MEAC.
 
steponaduck said:
With UGA. I would ask yourself : what is the possibility that they lose twice? So if they are power rated as a fave in all 12 (with power ratings that you trust and are confident in leaning into for betting), figure out what the number would be on those close games and try to come up with a ML so you can ascertain what the true odds of them losing twice might be.

2023 Uga…best team all year in many people’s eyes. Undefeated all season.

So at bama bama +133 ML?
At Texas Texas +170 ML?
At ole miss OM +230 ML?

Georgia -20 or greater in all others. So what losing combo unlocks a winning under play? I just don’t know if I would want to have my money tied up all season betting the best team in America slips up twice.

And how motivated are they for another “coming out” tour after being left out last year. Let’s be honest. They would have been -11 on a neutral over UW and we’re clearly pissed about it during that Florida state butt whoopin.

Just not a train I would want to step in front of.

I think the new playoff format can provide some value for large dogs against the perennial, powerhouse teams all season, as I believe there will be some element of load management since teams. Do not have to worry as much about style points, margin of victory, going 12 and.0.

At some point, I believe teams that have a chance to get in will realize that and during the last half of the season will probably alter how deep they play their starters and how many second team guys get in and game meaningful reps for later
Click to expand...
Great post.
 
Thrilled to talk college football and regular season wins/ conference futures with my man @JakeSirkus next week. Excited to dive into value plays/market moves and what teams may surprise/ under achieve based on current perception. Something to look forward to. Stay tuned.
 
Week 0:
Hawaii -27.5 (FD)
New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)

Week 1: *Updated*
Hawaii +17 (bet365)
Hawaii + 14.5 (everywhere)
UConn +22.5 (bet365)
North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)
UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)
Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)
USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)
charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)
Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage)
UTSA -20.5 -115 (heritage) .5u
Jacksonville State -3.5 -108 (heritage) .5u
Syracuse -13.5 -115 (heritage) .5u

Fresno State +21.5 -110 (FD)







just took a position on Fresno to go in there and compete. They have shown the ability to do so and Michigan has a ton of off season distractions + new coach + new QB + new OL/DL/just a re tooling I am sure but I want to see Fresno go in there and make a game of it. BULLDOGS
 
I'll probably be on Fresno too - a horrific spot for Michigan. Off NT - everybody gone - Horns on deck.....
>> as I explain to little avail each year ha - the key is - what will be the quality of Michigan's prep here? How many players will be grinding like crazy "man we gotta beat FRESNO!" ?? Or will they be focused on TEXAS? How much of their prep will actually be on TEXAS? (you're crazy if you think they start work on Horns 9/1).

Note: They will surely run on the field 'fired up' - but every coach on earth knows you play like you practice. Fresno has nothing really until 9/28 vs UNLV. Their run D is actually not too bad - they have little depth, so DL/LB breaks down late in the year (skewing the #'s). Losing Tedford might show late in the season, shouldn't matter much here.
 
bookieassassin said:
I'll probably be on Fresno too - a horrific spot for Michigan. Off NT - everybody gone - Horns on deck.....
>> as I explain to little avail each year ha - the key is - what will be the quality of Michigan's prep here? How many players will be grinding like crazy "man we gotta beat FRESNO!" ?? Or will they be focused on TEXAS? How much of their prep will actually be on TEXAS? (you're crazy if you think they start work on Horns 9/1).

Note: They will surely run on the field 'fired up' - but every coach on earth knows you play like you practice. Fresno has nothing really until 9/28 vs UNLV. Their run D is actually not too bad - they have little depth, so DL/LB breaks down late in the year (skewing the #'s). Losing Tedford might show late in the season, shouldn't matter much here.
Click to expand...
Mich opener will be interesting...

How does the QB play get split up?

Tedford departure.

Michigan has more returning talent than most believe...

Online probably is better ..

Running game should be great..

The TE position phenomenal..

Defensive will be exceptional again.

Kicking, QB and WR depth the issues.

Remember, there are 4 first round picks on this team.
 
Had a great conversation tonight with my man
@JakeSirkus
for his Spotify podcast regarding my favorite derivative CFB market (Regular season wins) and conference futures. Really sharp CFB mind and he opened my eyes to a few plays to add to the portfolio. Check it out soon!
 
BAR

A couple of things, Rutgers has no issue running it up against these lower level FCS foes, and the last three times Howard has played an FBS opponent. They’ve scored 20 points, all recent history, so they’re going to put up a spirited effort and likely punch it in twice, I would bet RU scores 52.
 
Really strong position on Howard + RU over 47.5, would play to 51.5....really strong indicator that howard will help contribute to this total (scored 20+ points in each of the last three matchups involving FBS teams) and RU will not let off the gas (Scored a TD vs. VVagner last year with :04. seconds left, rather than taking knees. will certainly flex on offense in this matchup). RU should gash howard in the run game. they will score whenever and however they want to against this inferior meac foe. would be completely shocked if RU isnt in the 45-49 range...howard at 14-20 here. really all realistic scoring combinations likely in this contest lead to over 47.5, which is just plain and simple too low in this matchup.


Cheers!- Duck



Also, big news to come on where i will be providing content and write ups this season, but I have received a freelance position writing for and providing insite and content for a well known USA based gambling company
 
Boise QB Malachi Nelson does NOT win the job against incumbent Maddux Madsen...could be really interesting if he chooses to do something crazy like dip out or take a RS year.

UNT incumbent QB (projected #2 QB) bails and xfers to Marshall. Clearly they are not comfortable with Cole Pennington or WF cast off Mitch Griffis.

SDSU QB AJ Duffy (From FSU) does NOT win the job against Danny O'Neil.

Kent State Incumbent QB Tommy Ulatowski does NOT win the job as Devin Kargman gets the call.
 
Week 0:
Hawaii -27.5 (FD)
New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)

Week 1: *Updated*
Hawaii +17 (bet365)
Hawaii + 14.5 (everywhere)
UConn +22.5 (bet365)
North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)
UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)
Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)
USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)
charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)
Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage)
UTSA -20.5 -115 (heritage) .5u
Jacksonville State -3.5 -108 (heritage) .5u
Syracuse -13.5 -115 (heritage) .5u
Fresno State +21.5 (FD)
Howard + Rutgers over 47.5 (FD)
Fresno State +21.5 -110 (FD)
Oklahoma -41.5 -120 (B365)
Georgia -13.5 -118 (FD)


Futures Portfolio:
2024 NCAA FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON WINS PLAYS
Clemson under 9.5 -170
UCLA under 5.5 -110
Kansas State under 9.5 -135
San Diego St under 5.5 -120
Coastal Carolina under 6.5 -110
James Madison under 8.5 -164
Arkansas under 5.5 -200
Ohio U under 6.5 -104
New Mexico State under 4.5 -128
North Carolina under 7.5 -115
Ball State under 4.5 -154
Georgia State under 4.5 +100
Old Dominion under 5 -160
Kennesaw State under 2.5 -110
Duke under 5.5 -120
Temple under 2.5 -112
CMU under 6 -125

Conference Futures
NC STATE to win ACC +650 .33u
NORTH TEXAS to win AAC +2200 .22u
FIU to win C-USA +10000 .1u
LA TECH to win C-USA +4500 .22u
MARSHALL to win SBC +1800 .22u
AF to win MWC +1400 .33u
WMU to win the MAC +880 .33u
ECU to win AAC +1600 .33u
TEXAS STATE to win ACC +500 .73u
COLORADO STATE to win MWC +1600 .33u
OK State to win B12 +700 .33u
BG to win the MAC +800 .33u

Lottos:
140/1 Texas state + Boise State + WMU all conference winners
672/1 ECU + Texas State + NC State all conference winners
71/1 Bowling Green + Texas State + Liberty all conference winners
98/1 Texas state + Boise St+ South Florida all conference winners
1016/1 ECU + Texas State + Iowa State all conference winners

Game of the year play
September 28th UNC ML -115. @duke (bet 365)
 
Rarely do I post leans, but I will be keeping an eye on the FCS market closely over the next 11 days, and already have some posted FCS plays but will be looking at a few more to add to the portfolio. Some games I will be looking into include:
Week 0 FCS vs FCS
Mcneese/Tarlton State


Week 1 FCS vs FBS
BG/Fordham
Navy/Bucknell
Tulsa/NW State
UCD/Cal
Elon/Duke
San Diego St/Texas A&M Commerce

Week 1 FCS vs FCS
Davidson/Georgetown
Valpo/No. Iowa
Delaware State/SHU
Samford/W. Georgia



Just a little snippet of an article that I will have coming out:
Delaware State gets a once in a lifetime opportunity to travel @ Hawaii (5,000 miles) and soak up the sun, waves, great food, and a Rainbow butt whoopin' in a game that starts at Midnight local time Sunday morning. When will they get home? Monday? Then they have to rest, recover, regroup, and try to squeeze in practice for their 2nd game (week 1) another away game at Sacred Heart. I have this game power rated SHU -9.5 but given the horrific travel circumstances along with a super quick turn around and lack of available hours in the week to practice (not to mention a 4 hour bus ride to Fairfield CT, in a game that starts at 6pm so this will almost assuredly be a same-day travel spot for DSU as they are not going to stay 2 nights in a hotel for this one) and this all adds up to fatigue and sloppy play for an already overwhelmed Hornet program in disarray to start the season. They will be thinking of those Hawaii waves during their nice 222 mile bus trip to Fairfield, and will lose this game by more than 2 TDs.
 
steponaduck said:
Boise QB Malachi Nelson does NOT win the job against incumbent Maddux Madsen...could be really interesting if he chooses to do something crazy like dip out or take a RS year.

UNT incumbent QB (projected #2 QB) bails and xfers to Marshall. Clearly they are not comfortable with Cole Pennington or WF cast off Mitch Griffis.

SDSU QB AJ Duffy (From FSU) does NOT win the job against Danny O'Neil.

Kent State Incumbent QB Tommy Ulatowski does NOT win the job as Devin Kargman gets the call.
Click to expand...
UNT qb Stone Earl that is
 
steponaduck said:
Rarely do I post leans, but I will be keeping an eye on the FCS market closely over the next 11 days, and already have some posted FCS plays but will be looking at a few more to add to the portfolio. Some games I will be looking into include:
Week 0 FCS vs FCS
Mcneese/Tarlton State


Week 1 FCS vs FBS
BG/Fordham
Navy/Bucknell
Tulsa/NW State
UCD/Cal
Elon/Duke
San Diego St/Texas A&M Commerce

Week 1 FCS vs FCS
Davidson/Georgetown
Valpo/No. Iowa
Delaware State/SHU
Samford/W. Georgia



Just a little snippet of an article that I will have coming out:
Delaware State gets a once in a lifetime opportunity to travel @ Hawaii (5,000 miles) and soak up the sun, waves, great food, and a Rainbow butt whoopin' in a game that starts at Midnight local time Sunday morning. When will they get home? Monday? Then they have to rest, recover, regroup, and try to squeeze in practice for their 2nd game (week 1) another away game at Sacred Heart. I have this game power rated SHU -9.5 but given the horrific travel circumstances along with a super quick turn around and lack of available hours in the week to practice (not to mention a 4 hour bus ride to Fairfield CT, in a game that starts at 6pm so this will almost assuredly be a same-day travel spot for DSU as they are not going to stay 2 nights in a hotel for this one) and this all adds up to fatigue and sloppy play for an already overwhelmed Hornet program in disarray to start the season. They will be thinking of those Hawaii waves during their nice 222 mile bus trip to Fairfield, and will lose this game by more than 2 TDs.
Click to expand...
Great point on Delaware State's travel. I will be looking at SHU
 
Just an FYI for the Hawaii game. The local weather is saying a tropical storm will be moving south of the island Friday or Saturday. Looks like we will miss most of the rain it will be light to moderate. The winds will be 20-30 mph Friday through Sunday. Still 5 days out so it could change.
 
steponaduck said:
Rarely do I post leans, but I will be keeping an eye on the FCS market closely over the next 11 days, and already have some posted FCS plays but will be looking at a few more to add to the portfolio. Some games I will be looking into include:
Week 0 FCS vs FCS
Mcneese/Tarlton State


Week 1 FCS vs FBS
BG/Fordham
Navy/Bucknell
Tulsa/NW State
UCD/Cal
Elon/Duke
San Diego St/Texas A&M Commerce

Week 1 FCS vs FCS
Davidson/Georgetown
Valpo/No. Iowa
Delaware State/SHU
Samford/W. Georgia



Just a little snippet of an article that I will have coming out:
Delaware State gets a once in a lifetime opportunity to travel @ Hawaii (5,000 miles) and soak up the sun, waves, great food, and a Rainbow butt whoopin' in a game that starts at Midnight local time Sunday morning. When will they get home? Monday? Then they have to rest, recover, regroup, and try to squeeze in practice for their 2nd game (week 1) another away game at Sacred Heart. I have this game power rated SHU -9.5 but given the horrific travel circumstances along with a super quick turn around and lack of available hours in the week to practice (not to mention a 4 hour bus ride to Fairfield CT, in a game that starts at 6pm so this will almost assuredly be a same-day travel spot for DSU as they are not going to stay 2 nights in a hotel for this one) and this all adds up to fatigue and sloppy play for an already overwhelmed Hornet program in disarray to start the season. They will be thinking of those Hawaii waves during their nice 222 mile bus trip to Fairfield, and will lose this game by more than 2 TDs.
Click to expand...


That last paragraph is fantastic info. I';ll always be a situational handicapper at heart!

Added to my notes!
 
Ya its been all over the local radio here about them missing the flight. Sounds like they will be here tomorrow.
 
FINAL week 0 card

Week 0:
Hawaii -27.5 (FD)
New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)
New Mexico +14 -111 (BM)

FCS NORFOLK STATE +17.5
FCS MCNEESE TARLETON OVER 60.5
FCS SEMO -6.5 -123 (BM)

Write ups on the FCS are up at action network app.
 
Hawaii looked real bad last night. The QB missed open guys and the receivers dropped 4 balls i think. Play calling was horrible. On 3 different drives in the first half they gained 8 or 9 yards on a pass play to start the drive and did not make a first down. Each time they threw it on second and third down 0-6. run the damn ball to keep the drive going. The D looked ok but hard to tell with the competition. I have my doubts about the ucla game but its good to have football back.
 
Week 0:
angry
Hawaii -27.5 (FD)
moneybag
New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)
moneybag
New Mexico +14 -111 (BM)





moneybag
FCS NORFOLK STATE +17.5

angry
FCS MCNEESE TARLETON OVER 60.5

moneybag
FCS SEMO -6.5 -123 (BM)

4-2 start Hawaii viscous. Some of the worst football I’ve ever seen, playing a really bad MEAC bottom feeder. Had 13 points of closing line value and couldn’t get to the window. If their offense isn’t more efficient (9 punts last night and 5/14 on third down) they won’t win a game all season.

mcneese had a game tying FG as time expired to send to OT and keep the over alive and missed. 30 points scored with 10:00 left 2Q and couldn’t get to the window there either. Lots of game trend change when T-state QB went out with injury, and the Texans didn’t even attempt to score in the 2H times




Week 1: *Updated*
Hawaii +17 (bet365)
Hawaii + 14.5 (everywhere)
UConn +22.5 (bet365)
North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)
UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)
Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)
USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)
charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)
Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage)
UTSA -20.5 -115 (heritage) .5u
Jacksonville State -3.5 -108 (heritage) .5u
Syracuse -13.5 -115 (heritage) .5u
Georgia State +22
central Arkansas + Arkansas state over 54.5
Howard + Rutgers over 47.5
Fresno state +21.5
 
HC Chang would have preferred a more polished effort no doubt - but the game went about the way he probably wanted. They likely put in very little work for the Hornets - treating this as a simple scrimmage / showing nothing. A huge blowout accomplishes nothing - plenty to work on next week - coaches get to do plenty of screaming. I still expect they stay close or beat UCLA.....
 
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