Smart to sit back and wait a few weeks IMO...

[IvyinBarondise]

I'm not gonna bet for a few weeks...I was talking to a friend of mine who says he loves the Mavs line and I realized that you really gotta let things shake out before you start betting. I think it just takes away from your overall ROI if you toss out less informed picks based on less accurate feel and information.
What do you guys think...do you guys have another view? Maybe jumping on lines and teams before public pushes Vegas?

 

[JBsNuggets]

I've waited to start betting in the past for a few weeks, and the theory I have is that once you have a game or two under your belt for a team you really can pick up on opportunities where Vegas has yet to adjust. I remember last year for instance it took them 2 weeks before they started moving the LAL totals up over 215 or whatever it was. I had planned on waiting for a game or so this year as well, but with the season tipping off tonight I don't have the will power to sit and wait. Just too damn excited.

 

[IvyinBarondise]

lol...

I know some guys have some good #s on certain things...like returning champs game ones and returning runner up game ones...and certain rivalries and shit like that in their first contest...

I'm sure BC would have something to say about this

 

[hugh613]

What about the old adage "lines get tighter as the season goes along"?

 

[JBsNuggets]

What about the old adage "lines get tighter as the season goes along"?

Well that is an interesting thought I've never looked at until now. If you look at only Regular Season games, and lump October as a part of November and April into March (since Oct and Apr are short months), here is what you get:

*I only have the past 5 seasons worth of data loaded into my database

Average Spread Variance
November: 8.83
December: 9.19
January: 9.41
February: 9.59
Mar/Apr: 8.90

Average Total Variance:
November: 13.90
December: 13.50
January: 13.67
February: 13.12
Mar/Apr: 13.53

Obviously this is only 5 years of data and not the greatest sample size, but it seems as though January and February are the months to bet as Vegas' lines are off the most then. Could be coincidence, could make perfect sense.... who knows

 

[IvyinBarondise]

Well that is an interesting thought I've never looked at until now. If you look at only Regular Season games, and lump October as a part of November and April into March (since Oct and Apr are short months), here is what you get:

*I only have the past 5 seasons worth of data loaded into my database

Average Spread Variance
November: 8.83
December: 9.19
January: 9.41
February: 9.59
Mar/Apr: 8.90

Average Total Variance:
November: 13.90
December: 13.50
January: 13.67
February: 13.12
Mar/Apr: 13.53

Obviously this is only 5 years of data and not the greatest sample size, but it seems as though January and February are the months to bet as Vegas' lines are off the most then. Could be coincidence, could make perfect sense.... who knows

There are less variables at the beginning of the season, it doesn't surprise me that the average spread variance is at it's lowest in November. As injuries and trades occur, things change...surprising that the totals is the opposite though...I'd like to see more then 5 seasons data though...good shit though