Slap's 2013 Australian Open thread

King Slap

King Slap

CTG Honorary Super Moderator
Tennis. Currently my favorite sport to bet.

Should have made this thread yesterday as I doubled my entire account on possibly the gift of 2013 - Janko Tipsarevic being only -140 vs Hewitt last night. Seriously though, what the hell kind of line was that?

Anyways I have a roll of just under 1k and will normally be betting 25-200 on these matches. At times I will go huge though. I do not do flat betting.

Not much I liked today - but there is one play I have (and really like) for the main event tonight

Gael Monflis +145 - Risking $100 to win $145

Both players have top notch ability, Monflis was on tract to become a STAR a few years ba k before the injury bug got in his way. Hes back after sitting out most of the 2012 season with a knee injury, and looked great last week until he ran into the buzzsaw that is David Ferrer. Dogopolov is a nice player, he just commits too many unforced errors match after match. Which has me thinking this should be a PK at worst all day (actually expected the line to be flipped). Should be a hell of a match either way, so give me the + money
 
BTW FWIW - My pick pre-tourney to win was (and still is) Juan Martin Del Potro. I think we see a MONSTER year from the big man. I also am looking for Raonic to finally get it together. But highly doubt we ever see Del Potro @ +1500 in a major ever again.
 
great call on monfils, and u were right about it being a solid match. i follow @gamblingkings on twitter, hes great at betting tennis as well. let me know what else your're looking at today, theres definitely money to be made in tennis.

Stepanek looks like a live dog to me at first glimpse
 
D-Woww said:
great call on monfils, and u were right about it being a solid match. i follow @gamblingkings on twitter, hes great at betting tennis as well. let me know what else your're looking at today, theres definitely money to be made in tennis.

Stepanek looks like a live dog to me at first glimpse
Click to expand...

Cab you explain how there's money to be made. Do you think it's a sport that has weak lines? Seems to me you are thinking micro..
 
Thanks DWow, unforunately I'm heading to work right now and do all my posts from my iPhone so I can't reply to you or crawdads the way I'd like to right now in detail, but I will on my break later (i'm working 130pm to 130am cause a huge order came in - yikes. Cant wait to get out and catch up on the matches)

Hell of a match by Monfils. He absolutely dominated Dogo in the 1st set and still someone lost in the tiebreak - I thought he could be done for then. But he kept up the intensity and shot making and won the crucial 2nd set tiebreak then smoke Dogopolov in the 3rd n 4th sets. Expect Gael to make some serious noise at times this year. He will only get better

Funny you said Stepanek though, I am a fan of Radek but don't like his matchup vs Feliciano. In fact my only play so far is Feliciano, and the other Spaniard Verdascosauce is on my radar...just not thrilled w the -160 on Verdasco although he shines under the lights (remember he was in the final 4 here 3 years ago)

Feliciano Lopez (-140) over Radek Stepanek - Risking $70 to win $50
 
Excuse my typing. Seems to be auto correcting? Weird. Its hard enough to reply on this thing already LOL. Sounding like a dehoyos or some foreigner
 
Weak lines at times though yes crawdads. Lot of low lines because of "media darlings". For instance on Day 1 Janko Tipsarevic was -140 vs Leyton Hewitt who is way past his glory days. I personally expected the line to be around -350 up to -500. But Hewitt is Australias face of tennis (save for the up n comer Tomic) and Tipsarevic retired the previous week (although anyone that knows even a little about Tipsa knows hes a bulldog and also if he was really injured he would have retired vs Hewitt)

it was a complete beardown. I never worried once, even when Hewitt was poised to take the 2nd set. Tipsa down 5-4 went on to break hewitt back to back games and wom the second set 7-5 then steamroll him in the 3rd. Basically took him to school

you grt lines like that a lot in tennis though - especially majors. You also start getting big dogs deep into majors.

If i had to play one dog today itd be Ito @ +700 only cause I can see Fagdatis breaking down and or choking. But laying off personally
 
Did anyone see that way Monfils was moving last night? It was a thing of beauty. Brought a tear to my eye seeing him back in that form. He is easily the most exciting player in Tennis when in top form. That baseline stop he had in the 1st set to save a point was jawdropping. Shows u why his knees are so shit though lol

btw hey Jump. No just made this randomly one night to ask Hunt a question. Been popping up in the in-games when I'm around to catch up w you guys from time to time. Figured I would post my Aussie Open plays though as nobody else seems to and its something I feel confident with.

Hope all is well with you
 
Well, the Verdasco line has dropped (surprisingly) to a spot that I can mess with big time.

Verdascosauce -140 - Risking $105.00 to win $75.00
 
Did anybody take a stab on Ito +700 like I mentioned? Kind of mad I didn't even throw $25 on it. He just smoked Bahgdatis in the 1st set after being down 3-0 (won 6 straight games and won 6-3)

Damn!
 
WOW.

Feliciano is getting WORKED. Stepanek putting on a god damn clinic. Watch Radek play like shit next round lol
 
Slaptron said:
Did anybody take a stab on Ito +700 like I mentioned? Kind of mad I didn't even throw $25 on it. He just smoked Bahgdatis in the 1st set after being down 3-0 (won 6 straight games and won 6-3)

Damn!
Click to expand...
save your money, cheap thrill.
 
2-1, +150.00 so far

today one play:

ML PARLAY

Raonic -480, Gasquet -1200, Federer -1650, Tomic -800, Monfils -315 - Risking 250.00 to win 265.00

LOVE IT. Basically just riding Monils @ 1/1 imo
 
Damn Monfils made that one a hell of a roller coaster ride. That 5th set was madness.

3-1, +415.00

Today,

Stan Wawrinka -140 - Risking 140.00 to win 100.00 (love this - would be on it larger if Baker didnt retire so early vs Queero)

Fernando Verdasco +120 - Risking 50.00 to win 60.00 (Anderson is playing insanely well, but Verdasco absolutely romped Malisse the other night and has no business being dogged here)
 
Tough loss on Verdasco

Marcos Bagdahtis +500 - $25 to win $125

Big dick player under the lights. Worth a shot. Plus Wawa is winning so its a freeroll for me today
 
Welp. Still a positive day. Knew I should have mashed on Wawa. Damn!

4-3, +440.00

ONTO MY FAVORITE PLAY THUS FAR. BEEN WAITING FOR THIS SINCE THE DRAW CAME OUT!

I'm a huge Kohly fan, but this is Raonics year. Kohly will have to play a sensational match combined w an awful serving day to win this. PLUS ITS AT NIGHT. Kohly would also have to take this in 5 at best IMO. Raonic will not lose this match!

Milos Raonic -150 - Risking $450.00 to win $300.00

Lets go! So pumped! Biggest bet til Del Potro plays Murray in a few days!
 
Awful serving day by Milos**

Fwiw all of my big bets have hit and $50 or below bets have lost. Hope you guys jump on this one w me!
 
Del Po trying his hardest to fuck up my play on him against Murray. The way he's played in this match, I don't even know if I'd make it anymore
 
Chardy has played well but Delpo has slept walked the whole match. That's what's troubled me the most
 
CAPital said:
Del Po trying his hardest to fuck up my play on him against Murray. The way he's played in this match, I don't even know if I'd make it anymore
Click to expand...

You and me both. I am absolutely shocked.

Only positive of this is the future value we'll get on DelPo
 
Got to be one of the biggest upsets in awhile though. Especially fucking Chardy. Chardy using PEDs or somethin? Haha. What a monster
 
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Raonic over Fed is going to be jooooooocccyyyy. Yall see the way The Canadian Missle served today!?!?!
 
yeah, saw the beginning of the match, fell asleep, and the tv actually woke me, unbelieveable right now!
 
Milos Raonic +750 - Risking $200 to win $1500

These odds cannot be real life. Missed the +800 at open but regardless. I expected +500 at best

Speaking of, Berdych looks to be in phenominal form and shape this year. Pretty shocked by his odds as well

Berdych over Djoka +430 - Risking $100 to win $430


Absolutely love the line on Raonic tho. I will touch more upon it later (nfl time!)
 
Couldnt get to a comp. Sorry yall. Enjoying Gasgay/Songa w no dog in the fight. Hope Gasman wins. He needs a breakthrough victory.

So pumped for Milos/Fed though!
 
playing the milos handicap I think, although I belive I got a bad line, agree on berdych play alaso, good luck
 
Man. Too bad Milos couldn't get that 2nd set tiebreak. I thought he was playing great up until that point. Obv was deflated and got rolled in the 3rd set

Still made $100 on Milos this tourney and thats fine by me! Id make that same play at +850 every day!

Love my Berdych play tonight. I see it as a nearly even match. I may even add to it. We'll see.

Also, Chardy was a freaking OBVIOUS play in retrospect. How oh how did I miss that
 
Yup even tho it goes down as a L on Milos I think you were on the right side in terms of value. Love the Berd man tonight. Djoker has shown cracks over the last several major that he might not be the dominant #1 he was a couple seasons ago. Ferrer had him in serious trouble at the US and if not for a match suspension I think he woulda lost that one and then the other night getting took to the wire like he did he's definitely vulnerable. Good luck on the play
 
Yeah man, going 5 hours is going to hurt anyone, even Da Joker. Berdshyt meanwhile hasn't had to sweat much and I believe he's beat Djok the last two times they played. Or maybe it was just the last time out. I know he beat him in Olympics (of course thats grass) and has a pretty poor record against him but...new year, new major. No homo but his tree trunk legs look insane this year. If Berdych can get off to a fast start and take the first set he may take this in 3. In fact, what I'm going to bet is a bit dumb BUT I see no way Ferrer loses and feel its an extra free 50 on Berych.

besides. At the end of the day this is still fucking gambling.

Ferrer -500 - Risking 250.00 to win 50.00

Berdych +420 - Risking 50.00 to win 210.00


making it a total of 150 to win 630 on Berdych tonight

Enjoy the matches tonight fellas, the rest of this week is what tennis is all about!
 
Da hell? Scratch the Ferrer bet. Logged in to bet it and Ferrer match already started. I thought it was starting at midnight?

I still added 50 to Berdych though
 
Damn. Ferrer lost the 1st set 6-4 too. Wish I had live betting, prob can get good odds on him now
 
Slaptron said:
Yeah man, going 5 hours is going to hurt anyone, even Da Joker. Berdshyt meanwhile hasn't had to sweat much and I believe he's beat Djok the last two times they played. Or maybe it was just the last time out. I know he beat him in Olympics (of course thats grass) and has a pretty poor record against him but...new year, new major. No homo but his tree trunk legs look insane this year. If Berdych can get off to a fast start and take the first set he may take this in 3. In fact, what I'm going to bet is a bit dumb BUT I see no way Ferrer loses and feel its an extra free 50 on Berych.

besides. At the end of the day this is still fucking gambling.

Ferrer -500 - Risking 250.00 to win 50.00

Berdych +420 - Risking 50.00 to win 210.00


making it a total of 150 to win 630 on Berdych tonight

Enjoy the matches tonight fellas, the rest of this week is what tennis is all about!
Click to expand...

LOL. I said the same thing bout Del poo tho.

Gotta get some funds on 5 dimes man for live betting. Betting live tennis is like crack. Can make alot or lose or ass in a hurry
 
Yeah for whatever reason books refuse to make big favs, dogs during live betting no matter how dire the situation. The other night when del po was down either 2-0 or 2-1 and had played like shit, he was still a fav. Just crazy
 
CAPital said:
LOL. I said the same thing bout Del poo tho.

Gotta get some funds on 5 dimes man for live betting. Betting live tennis is like crack. Can make alot or lose or ass in a hurry
Click to expand...


Haha true on DelPo. We see what Chardy is doing tho. Kinda interested to see if he can keep it rolling early vs Murray.

I def need to get on 5dimes, I'm just unbelievably faithful to Bookmaker - maybe to a fault since I only really bet tennis the past year or so...Theyve just been great to me and I know I'll have my withdrawal in hand within 2-3 days which is a great feeling. I would like to cash out a couple grand after this tournament if things end well, maybe I will throw some of that in 5dimes for the rest of the tennis season

Bet you i'd blow it quickly in live betting though haha


wow 3 break points for Almagro here in the 3rd set
 
Luckiest non-bet of my life going back to my app to play Ferrer and being stunned that it had started lololol. Almost feel like I should throw the 250 I was going to bet on Berdshyt and just go tennis balls deep
 
Great luck on missing that Ferrer bet. Not on his game one bit. I'll say this about him, win or lose the guys will give you max effort and actually look like he gives a shit unlike alot of players

2 break points for Ferrer and just like that deuce
 
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