SDQL Thread Week 12

JROCK1966

JROCK1966

Big Blue Nation
Here's a good one and I've gone over it several times and cannot find any errors so I think it's legit.

First, I put in my scenario for "trap games" to see if anything is up this week and Eastern Michigan came back as a hit. They are active on this trend for Wednesday:

1. Away dogs 2. Line between 1-10pts. 3. Dog has worse QB efficiency than opponent. 4. Dog has negative turnover margin. 5. Favorite also has negative turnover margin. 6. Both 2016 and 2017 results.

Came back with records of 24-12 SU (66.7%) and 30-6 ATS (83.3%) over the last two seasons. (See Pic #1)

It got crazy better though...when I changed the line from 1-10pts to 1-5pts, insanity prevailed. Came back with records of 16-2 SU (88.9%) and 17-1 ATS (94.4%) over the last two seasons. (See Pic #2)

Good luck on what you decide my fellow Brothers in Arms!

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Not quite as good as the post above but still a nice ATS at 75%. Michigan backers may be interested in this one since the trend is active on the Wolverines this week.

1. Away dogs 2. Line between 1-10pts. 3. Dog has worse QB efficiency than opponent. 4. Dog has negative turnover margin. 5. Favorite has positive turnover margin. 6. Both 2016 and 2017 results.

Came back with records of 19-17 SU (52.8%) and 27-9 ATS (75%) over the last two seasons.

mich1.jpg mich2.jpg
 
We have a new hit!! I ran the query from post 1 again....the one with lines between 1-10pts....and Coastal Carolina came up as active. The line must have been published later than the others....this trend, again, has records of 24-12 SU (66.7%) and 30-6 ATS (83.3%) over the last two seasons....

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ProV1Colt said:
Keep pumping out that info JRock
Thanks.
Do you think you can do NCAA bball w/ it?
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Yes I can do that but it's going to take some time. I've dabbled in it for a few hours so far and have not found anything I think is worthwhile. I'm going to look into designing some queries based on tempo next and see how that does....hope to have some examples by the end of the week.
 
Is Miami in a letdown spot? Is that a trap game? I mean Miami FL! Thanks :)
 
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Excuse my ignorance, but is the play on E. Michigan or is that the trap an d play on Miami Ohio?
 
DBURGH said:
Excuse my ignorance, but is the play on E. Michigan or is that the trap an d play on Miami Ohio?
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No worries. I went back and re-read my writing and can see where it was confusing. As VaCavs said, the play is take the pt.s with EMU and not sure we'll ever get better odds for a ML play.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Boooo stop working. Jk. Thanks :)
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ok here ya go...seems you might be right. Your thoughts about a Miami sleepwalk and a UVA bounceback are seemingly in the cards. Miami's model has a 100% SU win % however only 33% ATS. One thing I would like to note is it's been over 10 years since a team with Miami's model has covered ATS. Since 2006, it has gone 0-4 ATS. See 1st pic. UVA's model (although a low sample) has a 0% SU win % however a 100% ATS record. See 2nd pic. Hope this helps!

miami1.jpg

uva.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
ok here ya go...seems you might be right. Your thoughts about a Miami sleepwalk and a UVA bounceback are seemingly in the cards. Miami's model has a 100% SU win % however only 33% ATS. One thing I would like to note is it's been over 10 years since a team with Miami's model has covered ATS. Since 2006, it has gone 0-4 ATS. See 1st pic. UVA's model (although a low sample) has a 0% SU win % however a 100% ATS record. See 2nd pic. Hope this helps!

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Wow! They're all in November and I didn't even call for it!!
 
So what is this really saying? Play the QB with the worse QB eff number when an away dog and both teams are negative turnover? I mean these are trends I get that, but just seems to be coincidental doesn't it? Why would playing on the worse QB eff number for an away dog with a negative TO ratio in and of itself be any kind of sound reasoning?

Or the other one...Michigan and Wisconsin. Not that anyone would base a decision solely on this probably, but if I told you...take the worse QB on a team with a negative TO ratio vs a team with the better QB and positive turnover ratio why would that be a good idea?

Maybe I don't understand it, or I don't get random trends.
 
s--k said:
So what is this really saying? Play the QB with the worse QB eff number when an away dog and both teams are negative turnover? I mean these are trends I get that, but just seems to be coincidental doesn't it? Why would playing on the worse QB eff number for an away dog with a negative TO ratio in and of itself be any kind of sound reasoning?

Or the other one...Michigan and Wisconsin. Not that anyone would base a decision solely on this probably, but if I told you...take the worse QB on a team with a negative TO ratio vs a team with the better QB and positive turnover ratio why would that be a good idea?

Maybe I don't understand it, or I don't get random trends.
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Recommend you read my Case Study thread where I explained what I found....but yes, you're exactly right!!! Why would you, me, or anyone in their right minds back a team with a worse QB and negative TO margin?? The Public certainly does not...the consensus backed FIU last weekend at >70% with that very reasoning!!! And they all lost bigtime!!! It's a numerical analysis of a sucker bet. When these lines are >10pts, the results are where one would expect it to be which is heavily in the favs favor. But! Once we set the line to <10pts the results are killer in favor of the dog!! In other words, I think the line has been set lower to real in the public and the suckers!! Look back at your own words....even you don't want anything to do with it. But what I'm saying is yes! You absolutely want every part of this scenario!!
 
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VirginiaCavs said:
So spread between 16 and 25 one team off an upset win another off a loss? Can't understand it all
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Yes...you got it!! Spread between 16-25, results for Miami's last three games which is W, W, & W. I also gave a 10pt range of how many points they gave up on defense (their last 3 games) and those were the results that came back. For UVA, spread between 16-25, results for UVA's last three games which is L, W, & L. I also gave a 10pt range of how many points they gave up on defense (their last 3 games) and those were the results that came back.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
So spread between 16 and 25 one team off an upset win another off a loss? Can't understand it all
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I used the same scenario, in post #18, to predict the bouncebacks by Ohio State, Appy State, and Penn State (even though they lost ATS by 1 score) and also the letdown for Iowa last Saturday.....it works!! Or, at least I think it does....
 
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s--k said:
So what is this really saying? Play the QB with the worse QB eff number when an away dog and both teams are negative turnover? I mean these are trends I get that, but just seems to be coincidental doesn't it? Why would playing on the worse QB eff number for an away dog with a negative TO ratio in and of itself be any kind of sound reasoning?

Or the other one...Michigan and Wisconsin. Not that anyone would base a decision solely on this probably, but if I told you...take the worse QB on a team with a negative TO ratio vs a team with the better QB and positive turnover ratio why would that be a good idea?

Maybe I don't understand it, or I don't get random trends.
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Right now I'm seeing Miami (OH) at 63% consensus and Idaho at 67%.....here we go again!!!

Michigan is at 53% so people are at least onto this one....but, my results are not actually as killer as the scenario for Coastal and EMU. Michigan / Wisky is obviously a much more high-profile game.
 
I'm sure with some of the ugly dogs I play their QB rating is poor and worse than the favorite, I just never sought out such a thing in selecting a game.
 
s--k said:
I'm sure with some of the ugly dogs I play their QB rating is poor and worse than the favorite, I just never sought out such a thing in selecting a game.
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I️ haven’t either. I️ only uncovered it by chance while searching for a reason ODU won last Saturday.
 
Ran some game model queries on the two games tonight and KSU / CMU came back iffy so I passed. Found this one active on Akron though...0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS...didn't post it because I lost twice last week with a small sample size. Just posting for interest's sake here....would be a confidence booster if Ohio covered.

akron1.jpg
 
Coastal Carolina it is

Idaho’s path to a second consecutive season of bowl eligibility just got a lot tougher.

Coach Paul Petrino announced Thursday that senior quarterback Matt Linehan won’t play in the Vandals’ home finale Saturday against Coastal Carolina (3 p.m. MT, ESPN3).

Linehan sustained an injury to his throwing arm in the closing minutes of a 24-21 loss to Troy on Nov. 2.


Read more here: http://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/college/university-of-idaho/article185102168.html#storylink=cpy
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Coastal left today for Moscow (the one in Idaho). So they will be there all day Friday to get some light practice and walkthrouh at the hotel and the Kibbie.

Sounds like Keane is out this week. Definitely would rather have him at QB. Anderson has played, but is a downgrade.

Interesting reading, some of their seniors were on the 2004 team that traveled to Montana in 2013 for a playoff game, just comparing the difficulties of them traveling so far. You can read more here if you like:
http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/sp...tal-carolina-university/article184877388.html
 
Ha, from the Phil Steele book:

"Chanticleer comes from the Canterbury Tales, a Chanticleer is a rooster who rules the barnyard w/ cunning and wit. His competitiveness never wanes as he battles to the end, using his brains to come out on top every time".

I think I may have found my shirt to wear Saturday!
 
I️ think I’ve found a D8 style 1st half play in Vandy. I’ll post my findings this evening when I️ get home from work. Damn work’s getting in the way of my vices......o_O

:beerdrink:
 
Rice? What? Yeah, I do not have an explanation other than what I've already written up previous...obviously there is some sort of letdown coming up for ODU after their win last week vs. FIU. I tried to answer s--k's concern in post #30 about the lack of Keane at QB for Coastal...and, in doing so, 1) I removed the QB efficiency code I had used and 2) Rice became a hit as well!! This trend is simply an away dog of lines <10pts that have a worse total defense and both the dog & fav have negative TO margins. So far, in 2017, the trend is 10-3 SU (76.9%) and 12-1 ATS (92.3%). It is active on both Coastal Carolina and Rice. How's that for doggie stats?? See the green boxes below and good luck in what you boyzz decide!!

rice.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
Rice? What? Yeah, I do not have an explanation other than what I've already written up previous...obviously there is some sort of letdown coming up for ODU after their win last week vs. FIU. I tried to answer s--k's concern in post #30 about the lack of Keane at QB for Coastal...and, in doing so, 1) I removed the QB efficiency code I had used and 2) Rice became a hit as well!! This trend is simply an away dog of lines <10pts that have a worse total defense and both the dog & fav have negative TO margins. So far, in 2017, the trend is 10-3 SU (76.9%) and 12-1 ATS (92.3%). It is active on both Coastal Carolina and Rice. How's that for doggie stats?? See the green boxes below and good luck in what you boyzz decide!!

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I'll add that one of the websites I like getting my consensus figures from currently has Idaho at 74% and ODU at 77%.....

:blowme:
 
10pt lines do seem to be the cutoff for ML wins though. All I did was change the line to less than or equal to 11...I saw Rutgers at 11pts so I was seeing if they had a chance. At 10pts, the trend adds 3 SU losses and 1 win. See green squares in the pic. It still looks great for ATS though! Rutgers +11 still has a 88% chance of hitting!

rice2.jpg
 
This is a great example of what I was talking about before....<10pts and the Public jumps all over the plays and they lose. >10pts (and this pic in the yellow box the line is >11.5pts) the trends become a lot worse.....1-21 SU for 4.5% winning percentage. ATS becomes a "meh" 45.5%. This trend is active on Syracuse, Texas State, Charlotte and UCLA. Stay away from their MLs!!

rice3.jpg
 
So road favorite ML are probs a big moned drainer for the public? Bc they get more likely a thread less than 10?
 
Here's a very interesting (at least to me it is) comparison / query. Let's think opposite of dogs and go with favorites. The normal train of thought here is favorites with 1) a better defense and 2) a better QB should roll right? I mean after all, who does not want to back the better team? Well, if you followed that line of thinking this time of the season and bet every one of these games that were offered, the numbers say you lose your azz!! Below is the 2017 record of favorites with lines between -1 & 10pts that have the better QB, better total defense, and in the month of November over the last 2 seasons. The SU record is 29-27 for 51.8% and 30.8% ATS record of 16-36-4....yuck! Furthermore, a closer look at just last week reveals how truly sharp the lines are at this point in the season. If you faded these teams last weekend alone, you would have had an ATS record of 9-4-2. Not too bad. However, if you bought 1pt in each game, you could have increased that record by 4 more wins to 13-2. See the green boxes in the pic.

The trend is active on the following teams today: Iowa State, Georgia Tech, Idaho, South Alabama, New Mexico State, Arizona State, Wisconsin, and Fresno State. If you play the dogs today, in each of these games consider buying 1pt....with the exception of Idaho's opponent Coastal Carolina who I've already explained is a live dog to win SU. Best of luck today Gents!!!

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SDQL plays for Saturday (final card because I'm switching gears and will be working on my hoops SDQL)

Coastal Carolina ML & +9
Rice ML & +8.5
Rutgers +11.5
Baylor +10.5 (bought 1pt)
Duke +7.5 (bought 1pt)
Georgia Southern +4.5
La. Lafayette +4
Oregon State +8 (bought 1pt)
Michigan +8.5 (bought 1pt)
Wyoming +1

BOLTA!!

:cheers3:
 
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