Saturday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jun 11 Sat 2022

02:10 PM
915Texas RangersM. Perez -L+1½
-165		+122O 8
-110
916Chicago White SoxL. Giolito -R-1½
+145		-132U 8
-110
02:15 PM
901Cincinnati RedsH. Greene -R+1½
-150		+154O 8
-115
902St. Louis CardinalsA. Wainwright -R-1½
+130		-167U 8
-105
04:05 PM
903Milwaukee BrewersE. Lauer -L-1½
+110		-149O 8½
-125
904Washington NationalsP. Corbin -L+1½
-130		+138U 8½
+105
04:05 PM
905Arizona DiamondbacksM. Bumgarner -L+1½
-110		+200O 8½
+100
906Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Wheeler -R-1½
-110		-220U 8½
-120
04:10 PM
907Pittsburgh PiratesZ. Thompson -R+1½
+105		+216O 8½
-115
908Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R-1½
-125		-240U 8½
-105
04:10 PM
909Colorado Rockies - Game #1R. Feltner -R+1½
+100		+197O 8
-120
910San Diego Padres - Game #1M. Clevinger -R-1½
-120		-217U 8
+100
04:10 PM
919Toronto Blue JaysK. Gausman -R-1½
-130		-220O 8
-125
920Detroit TigersB. Brieske -R+1½
+110		+200U 8
+105
04:10 PM
921Oakland AthleticsF. Montas -R+1½
-205		+103O 8
-110
922Cleveland GuardiansZ. Plesac -R-1½
+175		-113U 8
-110
04:10 PM
923Baltimore OriolesT. Wells -R-1½
+140		-110O 10
-105
924Kansas City RoyalsD. Lynch -L+1½
-160		+100U 10
-115
04:10 PM
927Miami MarlinsB. Garrett -L+1½
-105		+218O 8½
+100
928Houston AstrosF. Valdez -L-1½
-115		-243U 8½
-120
07:15 PM
929Chicago CubsM. Swarmer -R+1½
+110		+220O 9
-105
930New York YankeesJ. Montgomery -L-1½
-130		-245U 9
-115
10:07 PM
931New York MetsC. Carrasco -R-1½
+125		-125O 8½
-115
932Los Angeles AngelsM. Lorenzen -R+1½
-145		+115U 8½
-105
10:10 PM
913Colorado Rockies - Game #2K. Freeland -L+1½
-110		+200O 7½
+100
914San Diego Padres - Game #2M. Gore -L-1½
-110		-220U 7½
-120
10:10 PM
925Boston Red SoxM. Wacha -R+1½
-205		-105O 8
-120
926Seattle MarinersG. Kirby -R-1½
+175		-105U 8
+100
 
I’m hoping they fuck up wheeler k prop as bad they did Severino yesterday!! Should be at least 7.5, I can’t imagine they screw up and hang 6.5 but they did it last night so can only hope.
 
I’m not much into these big favs but I think Philly sweeps snakes, use them in parlays, lay the -1.5, or be creative, just think they keep winning games. I like over also so I’m thinking Philly/over parlay. Even tho im interested in wheeler k prop (only if they wrong w number) this isn’t really a good spot for him, he will strike plenty of guys out but I suspect he also struggles to go much deeper than 5 innings and prob gives up a couple runs. Much like waino madbum at a point in his career where he can still be effective but not gonna trust him vs a lineup this good and this hot who been good against lefties all year. I expect Phillies put up another big score so like their team total over as well.
 
As good as Perez has been I don’t think this a good day to back him. He not this good and now he gets a really good lefty hitting team, just feels like a spot he prob struggles.
 
I hate the pitching matchup for nats today so as much I’d like to fade brewers again I’m gonna give it a rest here.
 
Valdez isn’t always a strikeout pitcher but he more than capable of punching out 6-7-8 guys and he has about the best matchup possible for a lefty these days, I still don’t understand it but fish have the worst ops in baseball vs lhp and they still fanning over 32% their abs against them! It weird cause they have a pretty right handed heavy lineup but they do not like facing lhp. Over 5.5 k’s should be money.
 
askias said:
If you had to go with a big favorite today, would you go with the Braves or Yankees?
Click to expand...

Phillies, I think they a stronger play than either those 2. Wheeler easily the best of the starters and has probably the easiest matchup and their offense the hottest.
 
For a guy who hates playing favs I went and done it again today! Lol. I did cash the Phillies/yanks parlay yesterday, barely, that was bout longest extra inning I recall since they did the runner on 2nd thing. Nothing says crappy bet like a -250 fav in the 12th-13th inning! lol. I’ll take it tho. Yesterday Phils were the cheaper option (I’m not gonna play 2 teams laying -200 or more, if I can’t get +140/+150 I’m not doing them!). Anyways here today 2 team ml fav special.

Phillies/chisox +140 (oddly enough exactly same it was yes yesterday). As I said phils the expensive option today but think they worth the price if any the big favs are today. Not the best spot for wheeler far as days rest and a day game but think the matchup overrides that. Snakes struggle against suspect rhp’s so even wheeler at less than his best should be pretty good. I don’t think he pitching a shutout by any stretch but I don’t think he has to, I expect he will get plenty of support as madbum gonna have to battle to go 5+ innings without getting lit up. I like Phils team total also.

I thought CWS was way underpriced thanks to having a incredibly favorable matchup for the lineup and Giolito. I see they have been bet up since I left casino, imo the -160 I see now is much closer to correct. I wouldn’t have had any problem playing them straight at anything -140 or less I just needed a partner for Phillies and I like them best far as other favs in the -140/-160 range today.
 
Had to get that nasty taste of playing favs out my mouth!

Reds Ff +145. Greene results been all over the place but there no question about his stuff/potential. When he has control and can locate he good enough to stifle any lineup imo. He has really gotten the walks under control as of late, he still having problems laying some meatballs into middle the zone but if they just solo shots it not the end the world. Appears reds missing few guys from a already suspect lineup but they do have a good history of hitting waino and the starting lineup I see I think capable of playing 3-4 runs off him, then it just a matter of greene making those runs hold up for 5 innings, Imo his chances of doing so better than price suggest.

Greene k prop over 5.5 as well. It’s understandable they came with this number considering cards not a high strikeout team but as mentioned I think this kid matchup proof. He can mow down any lineup when he locating that 97-98 mph heater up in zone and snapping off the slider! One day he will develop a 3rd pitch and become one the best pitchers in baseball but for now I think the 2 can be good enough against a right handed heavy lineup. If you into hitter props I would def look at Gorman, Carlson, or Donovan, those the guys who worry me a bit but think this being 1st time cards seeing him gonna be tough.
 
As mention played Valdez ov 5.5 k’s. The matchup just too good against a fish team who fans a crazy amount vs lhp to pass it up. He not a high volume strike out guy but he will compile them throughout the start as he eats innings and sees these guys who whiff a lot multiple times!
 
Woulda thought bout Carrasco k prop also but when I got to casino he was up to 6.5. The only 6.5 over I’m playing today is wheeler as they did Fuck around and give him the same number as Sevi yesterday! Even tho I don’t expect wheeler to be his best today against this lineup I do think he will pile up the strikeouts quickly. I was really surprised where this been with sevi yesterday and wheeler today, I don’t even think they base it off the things bout him I don’t like today yet they still set it here. Had wheeler been on best days rest I woulda made his number 8.5, I still think 7.5 was warranted so once again a must play imo.
 
Is anyone getting stuff from my daily ramblings and plays? If so I’ll keep doing them, I like doing it but it been so dead in here I dunno if anyone reading/paying attention? As much I enjoy talking bout there no sense talking to myself where ppl can see it anyways! Lol. The days I don’t do it I get a text from @VirginiaCavs asking if I’m ok so at least someone reads! Lol.
 
2daBank said:
Is anyone getting stuff from my daily ramblings and plays? If so I’ll keep doing them, I like doing it but it been so dead in here I dunno if anyone reading/paying attention? As much I enjoy talking bout there no sense talking to myself where ppl can see it anyways! Lol. The days I don’t do it I get a text from @VirginiaCavs asking if I’m ok so at least someone reads! Lol.
Click to expand...
I love them, just hard to figure out which posts are plays when it's used as an in-game too

Thanks for posting your thoughts, I know it's a lot of work!
 
But to be fair it's really hard to in-game regular season baseball, I don't know many (if any) people who actually watch games until post season
 
KJ said:
But to be fair it's really hard to in-game regular season baseball, I don't know many (if any) people who actually watch games until post season
Click to expand...

Yea that why I just put in game comments them in daily, not like I’m watching a ton or doing lot of in-game either.

The reason I do here and not my own thread cause used to be we have some discussion where as ppl don’t discuss much in individual plays threads round here (unless I go into ppl threads and discuss, I found that made certain ppl annoyed so I don’t do as much anymore, unless I know for fact the person ok w it, lol). so I know I be rambling to myself if I do that!! Lol. Plus truth be told I’m a super lazy record keeper so back when I used to do pick threads at another place I found myself always falling behind and having to go back and do record all the time, that a serious pain in butt and I don’t enjoy that like I do talking bout games so feels too much like work which I have no interest in! I like sharing and hopefully helping someone out from time to time but I’m not so selfless i wanna do things I don’t enjoy! Lol.
 
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Giolito o17.5 outs is -185 but I think he is more likely to go 7+ than less than 6 so it's fair. Just need to tag it with something, of the early games I like 1st 5 o4 in StL. That might hit by the 2nd inning.
 
2daBank said:
Yea that why I just put in game comments them in daily, not like I’m watching a ton or doing lot of in-game either.

The reason I do here and not my own thread cause used to be we have some discussion where as ppl don’t discuss much in individual plays threads round here (unless I go into ppl threads and discuss, I found that made certain ppl annoyed so I don’t do as much anymore, unless I know for fact the person ok w it, lol). so I know I be rambling to myself if I do that!! Lol. Plus truth be told I’m a super lazy record keeper so back when I used to do pick threads at another place I found myself always falling behind and having to go back and do record all the time, that a serious pain in butt and I don’t enjoy that like I do talking bout games so feels too much like work which I have no interest in! I like sharing and hopefully helping someone out from time to time but I’m not so selfless i wanna do things I don’t enjoy! Lol.
Click to expand...
Yeah I try to update records but it's a pain in the ass when you're a volume player, fortunately it isn't some requirement here. I do it when I feel like it, much easier in the postseason regardless the sport.
 
KJ said:
Giolito o17.5 outs is -185 but I think he is more likely to go 7+ than less than 6 so it's fair. Just need to tag it with something, of the early games I like 1st 5 o4 in StL. That might hit by the 2nd inning.
Click to expand...

Yea he seems basically same as Gibson yesterday. If ya need a parlay partner for something should be pretty safe. Only thing w gio he still having that one bad blow up inning, i played his out total (same number less juice) in tampa and fucker had me sweating as he got roughed up in 6th, luckily they went ahead and let him finish inning but he coulda easily been yanked. TRL is old school which nice to have that kinda manager when playing these. I can’t stand when guys get the early and unnecessary hook.
 
KJ said:
I'm on his ks also, need that o4 too

And w/Giolito, nothing about the Rangers lineup scares me enough to get him run out of the game early
Click to expand...

Yea I agree, as I said feels very similar to Gibson yesterday. Kinda surprised they going w the heavy juice on 17.5 with them instead of upping their numbers to 18.5, guess they fear guys pounding the under on that number since 6 inning starts incredibly common for the better pitchers these days.
 
KJ said:
He's the type that could get major leaguers bailing out of the box like little leaguers
Click to expand...

Yea. I was kinda shocked they moved his number back down to 5.5 this start. For most part it doesn’t seem like they adjust a ton based off how much opponents fan, I guess snakes/cards are pretty opposite ends the spectrum tho. I thought they were crazy only making him 6.5 vs snakes. I think I’ve bet this kid k’s more than any other pitcher, they keep lining him like they do most decent pitchers but his k-rate is up there w the elite guys who they hang 7.5 and 8.5 with! Can’t remember a start he hasn’t cashed!
 
If greene ever develops that change up into a good pitch he confident in throwing he will instantly become one the best pitchers in baseball imo.
 
2daBank said:
If greene ever develops that change up into a good pitch he confident in throwing he will instantly become one the best pitchers in baseball imo.
Click to expand...
Dead serious he reminds me of a RH Big Unit, might be good enough to last several years without control in MLB w/2 pitches
 
KJ said:
Dead serious he reminds me of a RH Big Unit, might be good enough to last several years without control in MLB w/2 pitches
Click to expand...

As you were saying the other day the way things are now it seems more likely a pitcher can get away w that than in the past. I havnt looked into his splits against lefties, that be my only concern for him, against righties think I agree he could dominate with 2, not sure bout lefties tho?
 
2daBank said:
As you were saying the other day the way things are now it seems more likely a pitcher can get away w that than in the past. I havnt looked into his splits against lefties, that be my only concern for him, against righties think I agree he could dominate with 2, not sure bout lefties tho?
Click to expand...
Especially if they don't know, because he doesn't know, if the next pitch could get planted in their ear
 
KJ said:
Especially if they don't know, because he doesn't know, if the next pitch could get planted in their ear
Click to expand...

He no doubt has to be one the harder pitchers to stand in box against, again it prob easier from left side tho. He don’t have to master the change or anything, just be nice to have it available.
 
The one hit he gave up a double. That another thing he needs to work on, not a big deal when it the only hit allowed but he doesn’t tend to give up soft contact! It either a strike or a ball that gets barreled up, lol.
 
giolito taking quite a few pitches to rack up those k’s. Hopefully he don’t get a bad inning thrown in, that will make 6 innings dicey for anyone who played it:
 
Cardinals idiot management of Gorman has single handedly stopped his hot hitting. I never expected him not to strike out a lot or hit for the average he was but sittting him damn near all last week cause they were facing lefties was dumb imo.
 
Gio fanning the hell out of rangers. Missed a opportunity there, lol. Never sure with texas, early on they were striking out much less than previous years but lately they have had some heavy k games.
 
Did giolito strike out side on 9 pitches last inning? I can’t remember if he had 5 or 6 k’s after the 3rd. Think he had 6 so guess it was only 2 strike outs, either way that was great inning If ya on his over out total. Unless something crazy happens he should cruise past 6 innings.
 
Oh fucj. There the dog shit giolito inning. I swear this Mfer too good to have these, especially vs suspect lineups!
 
Wheeler rocking, 5 k’s down 2 to go! Can’t believe they hung a 6.5 w him vs this lineup!

Fuckinv chisox trying to blow this game.
 
Giolito blows a 5-0 lead now the pen blows a 7-4 lead. They really should fire TLR, I dunno if that the answer but it couldn’t hurt!
 
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