Sat CFB-- top unit +2

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
record pending
________________________________________________________

Iowa -1, -110, 8 units* Loss 4 pushed 4

adds:

Uconn 2H -7, +100; 2 units Loss

Troy +21, -110; 2 units WIN
E Car -6.5, -110; 2 units LOSs
Iowa +1.5, -110; 2 units (now 10 units on game) WIN
tease -120, Fla pk, Mich st -2; 4 units WIN
Vandy +7.5, -120; 4 units WIN
ND over 21 2H, -110, 2 units Loss
Rice +28.5, -110; 2 units LOSS

* actually got 4 units @ +1 prior to bob but for purposes of recordkeeping I'll use -1 for the whole bet

I've been running below average in CFB so far so buyer beware. This is what I am playing and I think it is the first 8 unit bet I have made in CFB posted on here (could be wrong on that).. My top unit is 6 and those are rare, so ya I like this.. Not crazy about the fact Bob likes it also but it is what it is..

Many know that I have a large season win bet (7) on Iowa and I have loved them since mid summer when I did most of my CFB preseason research.. Love them even more now, but they are still under the radar. Not only do I have them winning more than 7 games I have them winning their first 7. I was waiting patiently for this spot as I think the value will be gone after this weekend, so I am hammering it now. Here is why:

Iowa/Pitt (the condensed version)
  • Iowa is physical up front on both sides of the ball. They are also very veteran up front on both sides of the ball. Pitt is saying the right things this week but they are going to be shocked at the aggression of Iowa's lineman IMO. This is no Bowling Green. Last week as I watched Iowa play ISU, I made the comment in the in-game thread early that I didn't think Iowa State would score without aid of big turnover. They didn't. Keep in mind ISU hung nearly half a hundred on Kent State so they have weapons. Iowa neutralized them all.
  • The name is Shonn Greene (RB).. You will know that name by the end of the year.. Big, strong, built low to the ground and a tackle breaking machine. A perfect fit behind this offense line. Pitt's inexperienced LB's are going to have alot coming at them Saturday. Greene was a highly touted kid out of high school but didn't amke in academically, went to JC and now is back and looking great.
  • Defense travels- I was very high on this stop unit and have had my early views confirmed. Granted they have had a couple of cupcakes but this defense has not allowed a TD yet this year in three games. I don't care who you are playing, if you don't allow your opponent to score a TD in 12 quarters of FB you are pretty good. And they are deep. This is a program that has put a bunch of D-linemen in the NFL (Aaron Kampman, Matt Roth, etc.) Keep your eye on King and Clayborn. Both will play on Sundays.
  • Bowling Green's victory At Pitt was interesting but even more interesting when you research what BG has done, or hasn't done I should say, since that game. (two double digit losses)
  • The return to health of return man and WR Brodell is a key element. Fought injuries all last year but is healthy and becoming a major threat in the kicking game and as a verticle WRing threat. Returned punt LW for TD.
  • QB- Christianson will get the start which bumped this beyond top unit for me. Christianson was the starter last year and has the experience of traveling for a BCS road game. Longterm I like Stanzi but he is not ready for a road start such as this.. They have shared snaps thus far and both are capable of being average which is all I want/need.
This is a 12:00 start-time game. I'll add some throughout the day but this is my POD by a long shot..

GL all.. I have a bunch more reseach and observations if anyone has specific questions..
 
Last edited:
vegaskyle said:
gl Tee ... future bet would be all but secured here with a win.
Click to expand...

Thanks Kyle.. I think the two game stretch of At Mich State and at Indiana will be key as I need at least one win in those two game assuming I get Pitt... IN CFB, injuries always change things but so far Iowa is pretty healthy. That changes quickly when you get into the Big Ten schedule..

GL this week:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
Thanks Kyle.. I think the two game stretch of At Mich State and at Indiana will be key as I need at least one win in those two game assuming I get Pitt... IN CFB, injuries always change things but so far Iowa is pretty healthy. That changes quickly when you get into the Big Ten schedule..

GL this week:cheers:
Click to expand...


thing is .. what is the injury that dramatically changes your chances ?? i mean you could lose the qb and still be ok ... just a solid fundamental team .. would need lots of injuries at the line of scrimmage to screw you that way. gl i almost played them this week myself and you have me thinking again.
 
BOL T-dub!

Pitt is gawdawful this year!!

All Iowa needs to do is contain Pitts run game, and this should be an easy one!!
 
GL Teedub. I liked this one too. Now that BOB is on it I passed. I don't trust them touts. But I will be pulling for you on this one.GL podnuh.
 
Local newspaper:


[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]Hawks bring spruced up defense to Pitt[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, serif]
Andy Hamilton
Iowa City Press-Citizen [/FONT]The last time Iowa football ventured into Pennsylvania riding a winning streak and one of the nation’s top-ranked defenses, the Hawkeyes offered an approach with few surprises.
Iowa regularly operated with the same players running the same scheme on defense in 2004. And while it’s understating Norm Parker’s importance to say all he had to do was wind that group up and turn it loose, the Iowa defensive coordinator wasn’t wearing out his fingers pushing the controls that fall. Only 13 players started games for the Hawkeyes on defense that season – a year punctuated defensively by a 6-4 victory at Penn State – and Iowa seldom used anything other than its base 4-3 personnel.

But Parker’s job has been more intricate this season, his defense has been perhaps more multi-faceted than at any other point during his 10 years at Iowa, and his hands have been all over the defensive dashboard through the first three games.

“He’s just like the guy on The Wizard of Oz back there behind the curtain,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. “He’s got all kinds of little things to do.”

Parker’s next task is devising a plan to shut down Pittsburgh and continue Iowa’s brilliant defensive start at 11 a.m. (CT) when the Hawkeyes (3-0) take on the Panthers (1-1) at Heinz Field.

Iowa is the only team in the Football Bowl Subdivision yet to allow a touchdown, it leads the country in scoring defense, surrendering just 2.7 points per game, and if anybody kept count of personnel groupings, the Hawkeyes might rank near the top nationally in that too.

“I think what’s reflective is we have a group of players right now we’re a little more confident in, especially in the secondary,” Ferentz said. “We’ve got a little more flexibility than we’ve had in the past. … I think we have more options there, and we’re kind of like that at linebacker, too. We can plug some things in.

“We’ll see how this all carries out, but I think we may, down the road here, have a chance to be a little more multiple defensively.”

Iowa shuffled through its defensive deck last week, using 19 players and at least four different alignments during a 17-5 victory against Iowa State. The Hawkeyes dusted off their 3-4 alignment, used nickel and dime packages and played their base 4-3 against the Cyclones.

What’s more, they got key contributions from players who fit into supplementary roles.

“We’ve never been against nickel or dime, but we’ve never had depth in the secondary, either,” Ferentz said. “I say ‘never’ in general terms, but it’s never been a luxury item for us. We’re pretty young on defense right now and we’ve got a lot of guys working, and when they’ve gotten opportunities they’ve encouraged us where we’re getting confidence in them.”

Freshman cornerback Shaun Prater and freshman linebacker Troy Johnson broke up passes in the end zone against Iowa State, turning possible touchdowns into goal-line stands in the second half.

“It just ignites everything,” Iowa linebackers coach Darrell Wilson said. “It gives the team confidence as us, as a staff, confidence to run those packages. We’re going to need it throughout the whole year.”

But Iowa might fall back on what it knows best today. Pittsburgh’s forte is a power running attack that Ferentz said resembles the one Iowa will face in four weeks when it plays Wisconsin. The Panther offense features running back LeSean McCoy, a 5-foot-11, 210-pound sophomore, who set the Big East freshman record last year when he rushed for 1,328 yards.

“We consider ourselves smashmouth, too,” Iowa defensive end Adrian Clayborn said. “If they want to run the ball, we like to play against the run.”

But if the situation calls for it, the Hawkeyes aren’t opposed to pulling out other methods of defense.

“Definitely at this point, we have more (packages installed on defense than last year) and we use them accordingly,” linebacker A.J. Edds said. “I’m sure we won’t be seeing six DBs and no linebackers this week with the kind of offense we’re facing.”
 
Girls of the Big Ten.. Iowa chick is Hot.. Michigan chick seems a little out of place BAR:36_11_6:

Girls of the Big Ten

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="10%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
girlsofthebigten.PNG
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
hahahahah, typical Michigan. GL tee. I dont know if I can bet it after watching a full Iowa game last week but on the other hand I havent seen Pitt play yet this year so I am not sure. Either way I hope you hit it
 
nawlins51 said:
I am on Baylor for the game and took this myself 2nd half.Hopefully a 10 point victory.GL to us.
Click to expand...

Smart play regardless how it turns out. Nice middle and have to be concerned with III's health if you are a Baylor backer.. I would have done the same thing:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
Smart play regardless how it turns out. Nice middle and have to be concerned with III's health if you are a Baylor backer.. I would have done the same thing:cheers:
Click to expand...

Thanks Teedub. I think the kid will be fine but we just don't know for sure.
 
:shake:gl, tee. i hammered iowa with ya... good luck to us. the stache will find ways to screw his club one more time...:cheers:
 
The name is Shonn Greene (RB).. You will know that name by the end of the year.. Big, strong, built low to the ground and a tackle breaking machine. A perfect fit behind this offense line. Pitt's inexperienced LB's are going to have alot coming at them Saturday. Greene was a highly touted kid out of high school but didn't amke in academically, went to JC and now is back and looking great.

What are you talking about inexperienced LB's? People talked about this being the best defense in the big east with Mckillop coming back, who had the most tackles in the NCAA per game last year. All the linebackers are upperclass men. In fact according to Steele this was "the best LB corp in the Big East" .Sounds like experience to me. GL anyway, hittin Pitt pretty big, but that might be because I go there and this seems like free money to me.
 
Agree with McKillop but saying that this is the "best defense in the big least" isn't saying much to me....have you seen how the big least AND how this defense has performed in the first couple of weeks? oh yeah, "free money" might be the silliest comment that I have heard in 2008 to this point, congrats! THEY GOT RUN UP AND DOWN THE FIELD BY BOWLING GREEN and had to rally in the 2H to beat BUFFALO! I live here to, the mustache needed to go a couple of years ago! Great recruiter, horrible coach!
 
GL Tee - Great observations on Iowa/Pitt. I was just capping that game this morning and leaning Iowa. Your writeup really covers a lot of the same positives I was looking at.
 
AlexGurv1987 said:
What are you talking about inexperienced LB's? People talked about this being the best defense in the big east with Mckillop coming back, who had the most tackles in the NCAA per game last year. All the linebackers are upperclass men. In fact according to Steele this was "the best LB corp in the Big East" .Sounds like experience to me. GL anyway, hittin Pitt pretty big, but that might be because I go there and this seems like free money to me.
Click to expand...

Pitt Football: LB Williams refreshes skills for test from Iowa
Friday, September 19, 2008
By Paul Zeise, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
freed_pitt0906_3.1_160.jpg

Matt Freed/Post-Gazette
Pitt's Greg Williams, left, and Scott McKillop take down Buffalo's Brett Hamlin Sept. 6.


<!-- end story_image_box_size_1 -->The pressure will be on Pitt strong-side linebacker Greg Williams, a redshirt freshman, when he makes his second career start tomorrow against visiting Iowa.
Williams is one of the best athletes on the team and certainly one of its fastest players,but his inexperience showed in Pitt's last game, a 27-16 win against Buffalo, and the Panthers' run defense suffered because of it.
Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt said after the game that Buffalo did a good job exploiting Williams, who was not getting into gaps and executing all his assignments.
Now the Panthers must face the Hawkeyes, who have a strong running game built around tailback Shonn Greene, and coaches have used a week off to give Williams a crash course on the position.


<HR color=#606060 SIZE=3><CENTER>Tomorrow</CENTER>
  • Game: Iowa (3-0) vs. Pitt (1-1), noon.
  • Where: Heinz Field
  • TV: ESPN2
<HR color=#606060 SIZE=3>
"The focus at practice has been on our fits, getting into the right spots," Pitt defensive coordinator Phil Bennett said, "and I think he has been very conscientious about it and very focused on getting the things we need from him done.
"I believe he's made improvements and I think [weakside linebacker] Austin [Ransom] has made improvements and that is all we can ask for and now we'll see how he responds tomorrow."
Wannstedt agreed.
"I think Greg has been making progress, he really has. It is not that Greg doesn't know what to do, he just needs to have the opportunity to do it. He just needs playing time, that's really all."
Williams spent last season as a scout-team running back and wasn't moved to linebacker until the spring. Even then, he spent most of his time at weak-side linebacker, though coaches say consistently the weak-side and strong-side positions are interchangeable.
But he was moved to strong side in the third quarter of the Panthers' opener against Bowling Green after senior starter Adam Gunn went down with a neck injury. Gunn was declared out for the season and Williams, who is 6-foot-2, 225 pounds and runs the 40-yard dash in the 4.45 range, was moved into the starting job.
"It has been rough on me, trying to learn this, but Gunn really has helped me learn a lot, even though he's been out," Williams said. "I know everybody is depending on me to step up. In the first two games, I was kind of nervous.
"I think the key is to not let them put their hands on me and grab me and instead getting my hands on them and planting my feet and using my leverage. It really is more technique than anything, and I've worked on that."
Williams said he has been able to watch lots of film of the Panthers' first two games, and his mistakes have been easily identifiable. He said in watching Iowa's offense on tape, his biggest concern is making sure that he does a better job of getting to his gaps because those mistakes are the ones he knows cost the defense the most.
"I just think it is a big part of it because I really just have to learn not to make mistakes if I want to continue to play as much as I have and that's especially with Iowa's linemen being so much bigger than what we've seen."
Although Williams has made some mistakes in the first two games, he's also made some big plays. He has nine tackles (fourth on the team) and two quarterback hurries, and has broken up a pass.
And while improving against the run is his primary concern, against Iowa he will also have the double duty of trying to slow down Hawkeyes' tight ends, Brandon Myers and Allen Reisner, who are the second- and third-leading receiver.
The duo has combined to catch 13 passes and two touchdowns and average about 16 yards per catch. Most of the damage they've done is down the middle of the field while being covered by linebackers.
"If you look at what they do with their tight ends, it will be on our safeties and linebackers to be aware of them," Bennett said. "That is something they are all going to be aware of and it is something we have worked on through the bye week and this week as well."

The game film I saw showed alot of inexperience and mistakes at the linebacker position..:shake: We'll see if the "crash course" paid off.. Have fun at the game bro.
 
Last edited:
nawlins51 said:
Tee what else your locking in.I hate being against you.
Click to expand...

Here is what I am still looking at:

ohio
Vandy
Auburn
Navy
Ball St
E carolina
Buff
San Jose st
Fla Atl

Probably a couple plays coming from that group..:cheers:
 
Let me make a a quick comment regarding the Comment by Alex above.

Make no mistake, McKillop is a stud and I agree 100% with Alex and Mags (the local Pitt guys) but Frosh Mike-side backer Williams is very much a work in progress. If you watch the game again, Buffalo continually exploited him to the point where McKillop had to overplay that side.

They say they gave him a "crash course" this week but I would be concerned how veteran Coach Ferenz will also attempt to exploit this inexperience.. Linebackers mush play in tandem and one weak link makes the entire group weak IMO.. I didn't just make the "inexperience" comment without detailed analysis.. Iowa is the wrong team to have a hole in your run defense against.. Just my opinion.

I fully expect Pitt to stack the box and Christianson will need to have an efficient day through the air, which I think he will..:shake:
 
Pieces said:
Maybe it's the millions on the east coast who woke up this morning, opened the paper and said 'Pitt's a lock'..

Im with ya on Iowa for better or worse.. Gl Tee
Click to expand...

Ya and if you take a look over at blankets Pit is getting a lot of "lock" and "easy money" tags..

Iowa is under the radar for sure.. And this is the right week to pound them IMHO.. Big bet for me.:popcorn:
 
add:

Troy +21, -110; 2 units
E Car -6.5, -110; 2 units
Iowa +1.5, -110; 2 units (now 10 units on game)

:popcorn:
 
fuck it tee, you twisted my arm...leaned iowa and got off of it earlier in the week...just locked it after reading this whole thread...let's cash this bitch
 
also think troy has an excellent shot of covering because of their ability to go 5 wide...ecu the only way i'd play that game as well. the better team with the better players escaped a letdown spot last week and still has a chip on their shoulder now against a team like nc state...scary. gl bro
 
Alright T, 10-14 now, both offense and defense seem to be settling in after a rough 1Q. Change at QB, concern to you at all? Pitt's DL seems to be giving Iowa's OL some trouble off the ball.
 
Mags said:
Alright T, 10-14 now, both offense and defense seem to be settling in after a rough 1Q. Change at QB, concern to you at all? Pitt's DL seems to be giving Iowa's OL some trouble off the ball.
Click to expand...

Thought you were going to the game bro. By the looks of the crowd, looks like alot of no shows

Actually the change to Stanzi appears to be for the better.. Greene is a beast and should get plenty of action in the 2H and Stanzi looks more comfortable ... Look for Iowa to find a way to get the ball to Brodell..

Still like it.
 
tee*dub said:
Thought you were going to the game bro. By the looks of the crowd, looks like alot of no shows

Actually the change to Stanzi appears to be for the better.. Greene is a beast and should get plenty of action in the 2H and Stanzi looks more comfortable ... Look for Iowa to find a way to get the ball to Brodell..

Still like it.
Click to expand...
Yeah, thought I was too. Wife is at a sales seminar and I'm watching the dgtr. City of Pittsburgh isn't too crazy about pornstache so not surprised at all about the crowd. I like the way the 1/2 ended, momentum on our side for sure. :smiley_acbe:
 
u think we see a low scoring 2h teedub? Like the looks of iowa pulling it out for you, gl with that.
 
Hope most people had Iowa +1 or better yet +1.5..

Puzzling to me why they pulled Stanzi after he got the game in control.

Lost 4 units at -1, pushed 4 units at +1 and won 2 units at +1.5.. Could have been worse..
 
got -1 here, oh well.

G tech runs all over state to kill my under. This yr has been strange foe me. Anything strong foe later
 
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